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During the Quaternary, ice sheets experienced several retreat–advance cycles, strongly influencing climate patterns. In order to properly simulate these phenomena, it is preferable to use physics-based models instead of parameterizations to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB), which strongly influences the evolution of the ice sheet. To further investigate the potential of these SMB models, this work evaluates the BErgen Snow SImulator (BESSI), a multi-layer snow model with high computational efficiency, as an alternative to providing the SMB for the Earth system model iLOVECLIM for multi-millennial simulations as in paleostudies. We compare the behaviors of BESSI and insolation temperature melt (ITM), an existing SMB scheme of iLOVECLIM during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Firstly, we validate the two SMB models using the regional climate model Mod- èle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) as forcing and reference for the present-day climate over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The evolution of the SMB over the LIG (130–116 ka) is computed by forcing BESSI and ITM with transient climate forcing obtained from iLOVECLIM for both ice sheets. For present-day climate conditions, both BESSI and ITM exhibit good performance compared to MAR despite a much simpler model setup. While BESSI performs well for both Antarctica and Greenland for the same set of parame- ters, the ITM parameters need to be adapted specifically for each ice sheet. This suggests that the physics embedded in BESSI allows better capture of SMB changes across varying climate conditions, while ITM displays a much stronger sen- sitivity to its tunable parameters. The findings suggest that BESSI can provide more reliable SMB estimations for the iLOVECLIM framework to improve the model simulations of the ice sheet evolution and interactions with climate for multi-millennial simulations.

Water stable isotope records in polar ice cores have been largely used to reconstruct past local temperatures and other climatic information such as evaporative source region conditions of the precipitation reaching the ice core sites. However, recent studies have identified post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface, modifying the original precipitation signal and challenging the traditional interpretation of ice core isotopic records. In this study, we use a combination of existing and new datasets of precipitation, snow surface, and subsurface isotopic compositions (δ18O and deuterium excess (d-excess)); meteorological parameters; ERA5 reanalyses; outputs from the isotope-enabled climate model ECHAM6-wiso; and a simple modelling approach to investigate the transfer function of water stable isotopes from precipitation to the snow surface and subsurface at Dome C in East Antarctica. We first show that water vapour fluxes at the surface of the ice sheet result in a net annual sublimation of snow, from 3.1 to 3.7 mm w.e. yr−1 (water equivalent) between 2018 and 2020, corresponding to 12 % to 15 % of the annual surface mass balance. We find that the precipitation isotopic signal cannot fully explain the mean, nor the variability in the isotopic composition observed in the snow, from annual to intra-monthly timescales. We observe that the mean effect of post-depositional processes over the study period enriches the snow surface in δ18O by 3.0 ‰ to 3.3 ‰ and lowers the snow surface d-excess by 3.4 ‰ to 3.5 ‰ compared to the incoming precipitation isotopic signal. We also show that the mean isotopic composition of the snow subsurface is not statistically different from that of the snow surface, indicating the preservation of the mean isotopic composition of the snow surface in the top centimetres of the snowpack. This study confirms previous findings about the complex interpretation of the water stable isotopic signal in the snow and provides the first quantitative estimation of the impact of post-depositional processes on the snow isotopic composition at Dome C, a crucial step for the accurate interpretation of isotopic records from ice cores.

A drifting wave-ice buoy (Medusa-766) was deployed at the Lützow-Holm Bay (LHB) marginal ice zone in Antarctica during the 63rd Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition to study the wave influence on the unstable LHB fast ice. Medusa-766 survived the Antarctic winter as it was located deep in the ice cover with the shortest distance to the ice-free Southern Ocean over 1,000?km; at this time, there was evidence of 8-cm-height wave signal at the buoy position. Using the the ECMWF?s reanalysis wave data, we show that the incoming waves were likely 4-m waves that were generated by an extratropical cyclone in the Southern Ocean. Wave-induced ice breakup potential for this event could extend hundreds of kilometres into the ice field. When Medusa-766 was in LHB in the summer months, it did not detect sizable wave energy despite the low sea ice concentration extent even during on-ice wave events. Understanding the wave attenuation characteristics is needed to elucidate the ocean wave effect to the unstable LHB fast ice. The success of Medusa-766 demonstrates the robustness of the general design and the high sensitivity of the sensor used, which is promising for future LHB wave?ice interaction research.

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy is a biophysical technique used for non-destructive biochemical profiling of biological samples. It can provide comprehensive information about the total cellular biochemical profile of microbial cells. In this study, FTIR spectroscopy was used to perform biochemical characterization of twenty-nine bacterial strains isolated from the Antarctic meltwater ponds. The bacteria were grown on two forms of brain heart infusion (BHI) medium: agar at six different temperatures (4, 10, 18, 25, 30, and 37°C) and on broth at 18°C. Multivariate data analysis approaches such as principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis were used to study the difference in biochemical profiles induced by the cultivation conditions. The observed results indicated a strong correlation between FTIR spectra and the phylogenetic relationships among the studied bacteria. The most accurate taxonomy-aligned clustering was achieved with bacteria cultivated on agar. Cultivation on two forms of BHI medium provided biochemically different bacterial biomass. The impact of temperature on the total cellular biochemical profile of the studied bacteria was species-specific, however, similarly for all bacteria, lipid spectral region was the least affected while polysaccharide region was the most affected by different temperatures. The biggest temperature-triggered changes of the cell chemistry were detected for bacteria with a wide temperature tolerance such Pseudomonas lundensis strains and Acinetobacter lwoffii BIM B-1558.

Microplastic (MP; plastic particles < 5 mm) pollution is pervasive in the marine environment, including remote polar environments. This study provides the first pan-Antarctic survey of MP pollution in Southern Ocean sea ice by analyzing sea ice cores from several diverse Antarctic regions. Abundance, chemical composition, and particle size data were obtained from 19 archived ice core samples. The cores were melted, filtered, and chemically analyzed using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and 4,090 MP particles were identified. Nineteen polymer types were found across all samples, with an average concentration of 44.8 (± 50.9) particles·L-1. Abundance and composition varied with ice type and geographical location. Pack ice exhibited significantly higher particle concentrations than landfast ice, suggesting open ocean sources of pollution. Winter sea ice cores had significantly more MPs than spring and summer-drilled cores, suggesting ice formation processes play a role in particle incorporation. Smaller particles dominated across samples. Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) were the most common polymers, mirroring those most identified across marine habitats. Higher average MP concentrations in developing sea ice during autumn and winter, contrasting lower levels observed in spring and summer, suggest turbulent conditions and faster growth rates are likely responsible for the increased incorporation of particles. Southern Ocean MP contamination likely stems from both local and distant sources. However, the circulation of deep waters and long-range transport likely contribute to the accumulation of MPs in regional gyres, coastlines, and their eventual incorporation into sea ice. Additionally, seasonal sea ice variations likely influence regional polymer compositions, reflecting the MP composition of the underlying waters.

Temporal distributions of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) density and aggregation types were characterized and compared using Nortek Signature100 and SIMRAD Wideband Autonomous Transceiver (WBAT) upward-looking echosounders. Noise varied between the two echosounders. With the Signature100, it was necessary to correct data for background, transient, and impulse noises, while the WBAT data needed to be corrected for background noise only. For selected regions with no visible backscatter, the signal-to-noise ratio of Sv values (i.e. the ratio between the signal and the background noise level) did not vary between the two echosounders. Surface echo backscatter was similar during similar time periods. Descriptive metrics were used to quantify spatial and temporal krill vertical distributions: volume backscatter, mean depth, center of mass, inertia, equivalent area, aggregation index, and proportion occupied. Krill backscatter density differed between the two instruments but was detected at similar mean depths. Krill aggregations were identified at each mooring location and classified in three types based on morphological characteristics. Each type of aggregation shape differed at the two spatially separated moorings, while the acoustic density of each aggregation type was similar. The Signature100 detected a lower number of krill aggregations (n = 133) compared to the WBAT (n = 707). Although both instruments can be used for autonomous deployment and sampling of krill over extended periods, there is a strong caveat for the use of the Signature100 due to significant differences in noise characteristics and krill detection.

Diving patterns of air-breathing predators were monitored from three moored subsurface upward-looking echosounders. Complete and partial dive profiles were visible on active acoustic records as echoes that started and/or returned to the surface. Dive metrics: maximum dive depths, durations, and wiggle count were measured and angles, distances, and velocities, were calculated at each site. Dive shapes ‘U’, ‘V’ and ‘W’ were derived using the number of wiggles and the percentage of dive bottom time. Dive profiles were classified into four types with type 1 dives being short in total duration and distance, low velocities, small angles, shallow, and linked to ‘U’ and ‘W’ shapes. Type 2 dives were short in distance, had low velocities, shallow depths, and were linked to ‘V’ dives. Dive types 3 and 4 had higher velocities, larger angles, longer total durations, and were deeper than types 1 and 2. Observed dive types could correspond to travelling, exploring, and foraging predator behaviors. Significant predator-prey overlaps occurred with predator dive profile counts correlated with krill aggregation thickness, density, and depth. This study demonstrates the utility of using stationary active acoustics to identify predator dive profiles with a simultaneous characterization of the potential prey field.

Increased knowledge about marine mammal seasonal distribution and species assemblage from the South Orkney Islands waters is needed for the development of management regulations of the commercial fishery for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in this region. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) data were collected during the autumn and winter seasons in two consecutive years (2016, 2017), which represented highly contrasting environmental conditions due to the 2016 El Niño event. We explored differences in seasonal patterns in marine mammal acoustic presence between the two years in context of environmental cues and climate variability. Acoustic signals from five baleen whale species, two pinniped species and odontocete species were detected and separated into guilds. Although species diversity remained stable over time, the ice-avoiding and ice-affiliated species dominated before and after the onset of winter, respectively, and thus demonstrating a shift in guild composition related to season. Herein, we provide novel information about local marine mammal species diversity, community structure and residency times in a krill hotspot. Our study also demonstrates the utility of PAM data and its usefulness in providing new insights into the marine mammal habitat use and responses to environmental conditions, which are essential knowledge for the future development of a sustainable fishery management in a changing ecosystem.

In this article, we investigate three arguments for Rights of Antarctica (RoA), understood as recognising the whole continent as a rights-holder with legal standing. For this, we draw inspiration from the Antarctica Declaration, a text developed by an interdisciplinary and international group of scholars and activists. We scrutinise three justifications that could potentially be used in support of RoA. First, we investigate whether arguments for Rights of Nature (RoN) elsewhere can support RoA. RoN has been accepted in several domestic legislations. Unfortunately, we discover important disanalogies between RoA and RoN, defeating the purpose of justifying RoA with reference to RoN. Second, we scrutinise potential arguments that focus on giving rights to specific Antarctic ecoregions or places. However, such arguments would only cover parts of the continent, thus going against the holistic approach of RoA, and they would require using a broader understanding of ?attachments? as grounds for justifying rights for parts of Antarctica. In contrast, we construct an argument for accepting RoA based on four components: (1) Antarctica?s intrinsic value, (2) wider forms of human attachments, (3) Antarctica?s substantial role as a global systemic resource, and (4) the fact that Antarctica is under recurrent and substantial threats. While none of these are individually sufficient for recognising RoA, they can jointly make RoA appropriate. We conclude that it remains an open question whether international law or, more specifically, the Antarctic Treaty, would be open to such conceptual and normative innovation, adopting a new paradigm in our treatment of the nonhuman natural world. At the same time, we hope to kickstart a discussion of what RoA would require and how it should relate more generally to RoN discourses.

Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

Future climate and sea level projections depend sensitively on the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean-driven melting and the resulting freshwater fluxes into the Southern Ocean. Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) transport across the Antarctic continental shelf and into cavities beneath ice shelves is increasingly recognised as a crucial heat source for ice shelf melt. Quantifying past changes in the temperature of CDW is therefore of great benefit for modelling ice sheet response to past warm climates, for validating paleoclimate models, and for putting recent and projected changes in CDW temperature into context. Here we compile the available bottom water temperature reconstructions representative of CDW over the past 800 kyr. Estimated interglacial warming reached anomalies of +0.6 +/- 0.4 degrees C (MIS 11) and +0.5 +/- 0.5 degrees C (MIS 5) relative to present. Glacial cooling typically reached anomalies of ca. -1.5 to -2 degrees C, therefore maintaining positive thermal forcing for ice shelf melt even during glacials in the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica. Despite high variance amongst a small number of records and poor (4 kyr) temporal resolution, we find persistent and close relationships between our estimated CDW temperature and Southern Ocean sea surface temperature, Antarctic surface air temperature, and global deep-water temperature reconstructions at glacial-cycle timescales. Given the important role that CDW plays in connecting the world's three main ocean basins and in driving Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, additional temperature reconstructions targeting CDW are urgently needed to increase temporal and spatial resolution and to decrease uncertainty in past CDW temperatures - whether for use as a boundary condition, for model validation, or for understanding past oceanographic changes.

Abstract The Antarctic Slope Front and the associated Antarctic Slope Current dynamically regulate the exchanges of heat across the continental shelf break around Antarctica. Where the front is weak, relatively warm deep waters reach the ice shelf cavities, contributing to basal melting and ultimately affecting sea level rise. Here, we present new 2017?2021 records from two moorings deployed on the upper continental slope (530 and 738 m depth) just upstream of the Filchner Trough in the southeastern Weddell Sea. The structure and seasonal variability of the frontal system in this region, central to the inflow of warm water toward the large Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, is previously undescribed. We use the records to describe the mean state and the seasonal variability of the regional hydrography and the southern part of the Antarctic Slope Current. We find that (a) the current is, contrary to previous assumptions, bottom-enhanced, (b) the isotherms slope upwards toward the shelf break, and more so for warmer isotherms, and (c) the monthly mean thermocline depth is shallowest in February-March and deepest in May-June while (d) the current is strongest in April-June. On monthly timescales, we show that (e) positive temperature anomalies of the de-seasoned records are associated with weaker-than-average currents. We propose that the upward-sloping isotherms are linked to the local topography and conservation of potential vorticity. Our results contribute to the understanding of how warm ocean waters propagate southward and potentially affect basal melt rates at the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf.

The polar regions are increasingly at the center of attention as the hot spots of climate crisis as well as tourism development. The recent IPCC reports highlight several climate change risks for the rather carbon-intensive and weather-based/dependent polar tourism industry in the Arctic and the Antarctic. This study presents the scholarly state-of-knowledge on tourism and climate change in the polar regions with a literature survey extending beyond the Anglophone publications. As a supporting tool, we provide a live web GIS application based on the geographical coverages of the publications and filterable by various spatial, thematic and bibliographical attributes. The final list of 137 publications indicates that, regionally, the Arctic has been covered more than the Antarctic, whilst an uneven distribution within the Arctic also exists. In terms of the climate change risks themes, climate risk research, i.e. impact and adaptation studies, strongly outnumbers the carbon risk studies especially in the Arctic context, and, despite a balance between the two main risk themes, climate risk research in the Antarctic proves itself outdated. Accordingly, the review ends with a research agenda based on these spatial and thematic gaps and their detailed breakdowns.

Maritime historical documentary sources of weather and state of sea surface including sea ice can aid in filling a known climate knowledge gap for the Southern Ocean and Antarctica for the first half of the 20th century. This study presents a data set of marine climate, sea ice and icebergs recovered from a collection of logbooks from mainly Norwegian whaling factory ships that operated in the Southern Ocean during 1929-1940. The data set comprises some 8000 weather and 4000 sea ice/open sea records from austral summers of the study period. This paper further discusses the structure and content of most common Norwegian maritime documentary sources of the period along with the practices of logging information relevant for the study, such as time keeping, positioning and making weather observations. An emphasis was made on recovery of notes on sea ice and icebergs and their interpretation in terms of WMO categories of sea ice concentration. Data, including ship-related metadata from all individual documents are homogenized and structured to a common machine-readable format that simplifies its ingestion into relevant climate data depositories.

From 1901 to 1912 – known as the “heroic period” of Arctic and Antarctic exploration – great inroads were made (not only geographic but also scientific) to our knowledge of the continent. At Amundsen's Expedition through the Northwest Passage, measurements of the geomagnetic field and visual auroras were carried out for 19 months at Gjoa Haven (Gjøahavn in Norwegian; geographic coordinates 68°37′10′′ N, 95°53′25′′ W). Scott's Discovery Expedition – at Cape Armitage, McMurdo (coordinates 77.86° S, 166.69° E), Antarctica – carried out the same type of measurements. Their observations were carried out geomagnetically conjugate to Gjoa Haven, with both stations close to 78° magnetic latitude. In addition, measurements were overlapping in time during 1903–1904. However, these two stations are located at different longitudes, so there is a difference in local time between the stations of about 6.5 h. Gjoa Haven and Cape Armitage are conveniently located for separating disturbances in the polar cap regions caused by solar electromagnetic radiations or the solar wind. Auroras were observed during 7 months per year. This gave a unique possibility to compare conjugate characteristics of polar cap auroras. Comparing conjugate geophysical data introduces some difficulties. During the winter season at Gjoa Haven, they had a bright summer in Antarctica, and visa versa. Thus, simultaneous temporal and spatial ionospheric variations can be marked differently. Still, the average diurnal and seasonal variations were similar. The quantity of the auroral data from Cape Armitage was larger because there they had a continuous watch of the sky. The main findings regarding polar cap auroras are the following. Three different auroral forms dominate the polar cap. Low-intensity auroral bands – then called streamers – were the dominating auroral forms morning and afternoon. The number of auroral events in 1903 was nearly twice that in 1902 and 1904. A marked midwinter maximum was observed at both stations. Many displays were observed poleward of the oval. The large fraction was associated with weak magnetic disturbances. Some forms of polar cap aurora have special magnetic signatures and seem to be anti-correlated with Kp. They can be mapped even if they are not seen. According to recent satellite measurements (Newell et al., 2009), they are probably caused by polar rain and/or photoelectrons.

In this study, we have investigated rock weathering phenomena in the central part of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The area is characterized by low mean annual temperatures (−18 °C), strong katabatic winds, and minimal liquid water at the surface. Weathering features, including ventifacts, tafoni, and grus accumulations, are characterized through field observations, rock surface temperature measurements, and microscopic analysis. Abrasion by sand and ice particles transported by strong winds has locally resulted in ridge-shaped ventifacts and rock surfaces with elongated pits, furrows, and grooves. The abrasion-caused features, such as polished facets, keels, and grooves, indicate a northeast-facing wind direction, aligning with the present-day wind regime. The dominant weathering processes in coarse-grained intrusive rocks are oxidation and granular disintegration. Fe-oxidation induces cracking, increasing the porosity and enhancing susceptibility to further weathering. Additionally, temperature fluctuations on rock surfaces caused by solar radiation create thermal stress, which can lead to the formation of microcracks. These microcracks, formed due to thermal expansion, are likely to propagate through subcritical cracking, which is a slow, long-term process. Together, Fe-oxidation, thermal expansion, and subcritical cracking are important mechanisms contributing to long-term weathering and rock decay. Salt weathering, facilitated by snow and ice meltwater, particularly within tafoni, leads to flaking and disintegration of the parent rock. These findings shed light on the complex interactions shaping the geomorphology of central Dronning Maud Land and provide insights into long-term weathering processes operating in Antarctica's extreme environment.

Fluid infiltration into Proterozoic and Early Palaeozoic dry, orthopyroxene-bearing granitoids and gneisses in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, has caused changes to rock appearance, mineralogy, and rock chemistry. The main mineralogical changes are the replacement of orthopyroxene by hornblende and biotite, ilmenite by titanite, and various changes in feldspar structure and composition. Geochemically, these processes resulted in general gains of Si, mostly of Al, and marginally of K and Na but losses of Fe, Mg, Ti, Ca, and P. The isotopic oxygen composition (δ18OSMOW = 6.0‰–9.9‰) is in accordance with that of the magmatic precursor, both for the host rock and infiltrating fluid. U-Pb isotopes in zircon of the altered and unaltered syenite to quartz-monzonite indicate a primary crystallization age of 520.2 ± 1.0 Ma, while titanite defines alteration at 485.5 ± 1.4 Ma. Two sets of gneiss samples yield a Rb-Sr age of 517 ± 6 Ma and a Sm-Nd age of 536 ± 23 Ma. The initial Sr and Nd isotopic ratios suggest derivation of the gneisses from a relatively juvenile source but with a very strong metasomatic effect that introduced radiogenic Sr into the system. The granitoid data indicate instead a derivation from Mid-Proterozoic crust, probably with additions of mantle components.

Circulation and water masses in the greater Prydz Bay region were surveyed in the austral summer 2021 (January-March) during the ‘Trends in Euphausiids off Mawson, Predators and Oceanography’ (TEMPO) experiment, and are described in this paper. The Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front is found in the northern part of the survey area, generally near 63-64°S, whereas the Southern Boundary Front is located between 64 and 65.5°S. The westward flowing Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) is found in the southern part of the survey area near the continental slope on most transects. Highest concentrations of oxygen (> 300 µmol kg−1) are found in shelf waters at stations in Prydz Bay, south of 67°S along 75°E, whereas the lowest oxygen values are found in the Circumpolar Deep Water layer, with an average of roughly 215 µmol kg−1. North of the northern extension of the ASF, surface mixed layers are between 20 and 60 m deep. Mixed layers tend to deepen slightly in the northern part of the survey, generally increasing north of 64°S where the ocean has been ice-free the longest. We find evidence of upwelling of waters into the surface layers, based on temperature anomaly, particularly strong along 80°E. Enhanced variability of biogeochemical properties - nutrients, DIC, DO - in the AASW layer is driven by a combination of sea-ice and biological processes. Antarctic Bottom Water, defined as water with neutral density > 28.3 kg m-3, was sampled at all the offshore full-depth stations, with a colder/fresher variety along western transects and a warmer/saltier variety in the east. Newly formed Antarctic Bottom Water – the coldest, freshest, and most recently ventilated – is mostly found in the deep ocean along 65°E, in the base of the Daly Canyon.

Abstract In this study, the subseasonal Antarctic sea ice edge prediction skill of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects was evaluated by a probabilistic metric, the spatial probability score (SPS). Both projects provide subseasonal to seasonal scale forecasts of multiple coupled dynamical systems. We found that predictions by individual dynamical systems remain skillful for up to 38 days (i.e., the ECMWF system). Regionally, dynamical systems are better at predicting the sea ice edge in the West Antarctic than in the East Antarctic. However, the seasonal variations of the prediction skill are partly system-dependent as some systems have a freezing-season bias, some had a melting-season bias, and some had a season-independent bias. Further analysis reveals that the model initialization is the crucial prerequisite for skillful subseasonal sea ice prediction. For those systems with the most realistic initialization, the model physics dictates the propagation of initialization errors and, consequently, the temporal length of predictive skill. Additionally, we found that the SPS-characterized prediction skill could be improved by increasing the ensemble size to gain a more realistic ensemble spread. Based on the C3S systems, we constructed a multi-model forecast from the above principles. This forecast consistently demonstrated a superior prediction skill compared to individual dynamical systems or statistical observation-based benchmarks. In summary, our results elucidate the most important factors (i.e., the model initialization and the model physics) affecting the currently available subseasonal Antarctic sea ice prediction systems and highlighting the opportunities to improve them significantly.