Search

Polar warming, ice melt and strong precipitation events are strongly affected by episodic poleward advection of warm and moist air (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85; Wille et al 2019 Nat. Geosci. 12 911–6), which, in turn, is linked to variability in poleward moisture transport (PMT) (Nash et al 2018 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123 6804–21). However, processes governing regional impacts of PMT as well as long-term trends remain largely unknown. Here we use an ensemble of state-of-the-art global climate models in standardized scenario simulations (1850–2100) to show that both the Arctic and the Antarctic exhibit distinct geographical patterns of PMT-related warming. Specifically, years with high PMT experience considerable warming over subarctic Eurasia and West-Antarctica (Raphael et al 2016 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97 111–21), whereas precipitation is distributed more evenly over the polar regions. The warming patterns indicate preferred routes of atmospheric rivers (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85), which may regionally enhance atmospheric moisture content, cloud cover, and downward longwave radiative heating in years with comparatively high PMT (Scott et al 2019 J. Clim. 32 665–84). Trend-analyses reveal that the link between PMT-variability and regional precipitation patterns will weaken in both polar regions. Even though uncertainties associated with intermodel differences are considerable, the advection of warm and moist air associated with PMT-variability is likely to increasingly cause mild conditions in both polar regions, which in the Arctic will reinforce sea-ice melt. Similarly, the results suggest that warm years in West-Antarctica disproportionally contribute to ice sheet melt (Trusel et al 2015 Nat. Geosci. 8 927–32), enhancing the risk of ice-sheet instabilities causing accelerated and sudden sea-level rise.

Numerous novel adaptations characterise the radiation of notothenioids, the dominant fish group in the freezing seas of the Southern Ocean. To improve understanding of the evolution of this iconic fish group, here we generate and analyse new genome assemblies for 24 species covering all major subgroups of the radiation, including five long-read assemblies. We present a new estimate for the onset of the radiation at 10.7 million years ago, based on a time-calibrated phylogeny derived from genome-wide sequence data. We identify a two-fold variation in genome size, driven by expansion of multiple transposable element families, and use the long-read data to reconstruct two evolutionarily important, highly repetitive gene family loci. First, we present the most complete reconstruction to date of the antifreeze glycoprotein gene family, whose emergence enabled survival in sub-zero temperatures, showing the expansion of the antifreeze gene locus from the ancestral to the derived state. Second, we trace the loss of haemoglobin genes in icefishes, the only vertebrates lacking functional haemoglobins, through complete reconstruction of the two haemoglobin gene clusters across notothenioid families. Both the haemoglobin and antifreeze genomic loci are characterised by multiple transposon expansions that may have driven the evolutionary history of these genes.

Surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet must be better understood to document the current Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. In situ point data using snow stakes and ice cores are often used to evaluate the state of the ice sheet's mass balance, as well as to assess SMB derived from regional climate models, which are then used to produce future climate projections. However, spatial representativeness of individual point data remains largely unknown, particularly in the coastal regions of Antarctica with highly variable terrain. Here, we compare ice core data collected at the summit of eight ice rises along the coast of Dronning Maud Land, as well as at the Dome Fuji site, and shallow ice-penetrating radar data over these regions. Shallow radar data have the advantage of being spatially extensive, with a temporal resolution that varies between a yearly and multi-year resolution, from which we can derive a SMB record over the entire radar survey. This comparison therefore allows us to evaluate the spatial variability of SMB and the spatial representativeness of ice-core-derived SMB. We found that ice core mean SMB is very local, and the difference with radar-derived SMB increases in a logarithmic fashion as the surface covered by the radar data increases, with a plateau ∼ 1–2 km away from the ice crest for most ice rises, where there are strong wind–topography interactions, and ∼ 10 km where the ice shelves begin. The relative uncertainty in measuring SMB also increases rapidly as we move away from the ice core sites. Five of our ice rise sites show a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability, while the other three sites show that it is limited to a surface area between 20–120 km2. The Dome Fuji site, on the other hand, shows a small difference between pointwise and area mean SMB, as well as a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability. We found no simple parameterization that could represent the spatial variability observed at all the sites. However, these data clearly indicate that local spatial SMB variability must be considered when assessing mass balance, as well as comparing modeled SMB values to point field data, and therefore must be included in the estimate of the uncertainty of the observations.

Abstract The additional water from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves due to climate-induced melt can impact ocean circulation and global climate. However, the major processes driving melt are not adequately represented in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here, we analyze a novel multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 models with consistent meltwater addition to examine the robustness of the modeled response to meltwater, which has not been possible in previous single-model studies. Antarctic meltwater addition induces a substantial weakening of open-ocean deep convection. Additionally, Antarctic Bottom Water warms, its volume contracts, and the sea surface cools. However, the magnitude of the reduction varies greatly across models, with differing anomalies correlated with their respective mean-state climatology, indicating the state-dependency of the climate response to meltwater. A better representation of the Southern Ocean mean state is necessary for narrowing the inter-model spread of response to Antarctic meltwater.

A dataset to describe exposed bedrock and surficial geology of Antarctica has been constructed by the GeoMAP Action Group of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and GNS Science. Our group captured existing geological map data into a geographic information system (GIS), refined its spatial reliability, harmonised classification, and improved representation of glacial sequences and geomorphology, thereby creating a comprehensive and coherent representation of Antarctic geology. A total of 99,080 polygons were unified for depicting geology at 1:250,000 scale, but locally there are some areas with higher spatial resolution. Geological unit definition is based on a mixed chronostratigraphic- and lithostratigraphic-based classification. Description of rock and moraine polygons employs the international Geoscience Markup Language (GeoSciML) data protocols to provide attribute-rich and queryable information, including bibliographic links to 589 source maps and scientific literature. GeoMAP is the first detailed geological map dataset covering all of Antarctica. It depicts ‘known geology’ of rock exposures rather than ‘interpreted’ sub-ice features and is suitable for continent-wide perspectives and cross-discipline interrogation.

One of the key components of this research has been the mapping of Antarctic bed topography and ice thickness parameters that are crucial for modelling ice flow and hence for predicting future ice loss and the ensuing sea level rise. Supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Bedmap3 Action Group aims not only to produce new gridded maps of ice thickness and bed topography for the international scientific community, but also to standardize and make available all the geophysical survey data points used in producing the Bedmap gridded products. Here, we document the survey data used in the latest iteration, Bedmap3, incorporating and adding to all of the datasets previously used for Bedmap1 and Bedmap2, including ice bed, surface and thickness point data from all Antarctic geophysical campaigns since the 1950s. More specifically, we describe the processes used to standardize and make these and future surveys and gridded datasets accessible under the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data principles. With the goals of making the gridding process reproducible and allowing scientists to re-use the data freely for their own analysis, we introduce the new SCAR Bedmap Data Portal (https://bedmap.scar.org, last access: 1 March 2023) created to provide unprecedented open access to these important datasets through a web-map interface. We believe that this data release will be a valuable asset to Antarctic research and will greatly extend the life cycle of the data held within it. Data are available from the UK Polar Data Centre: https://data.bas.ac.uk (last access: 5 May 2023​​​​​​​). See the Data availability section for the complete list of datasets.

A major consideration for maritime activity in the Southern Hemisphere is the northern limit of icebergs, or the Southern Ocean Limit Of Known Ice (SOLOKI). This analysis of historical reports of icebergs during Southern Hemisphere voyages from 1687 to 1933 provides a basis for examination of their geographical and chronological occurrence during ~250 years. The analyses use tabulated data from 742 voyages and other reports from many sources, some including first-person descriptions. While these data are dependent on icebergs being reported by mariners, as well as the variable frequency of voyages, they demonstrate distinct periods of exceptional frequency of icebergs occurring in certain localities, particularly the far South Atlantic. Based upon historical records the evidence suggests unprecedented numbers of icebergs were present in southern shipping channels in the 1890s. When these historical observations are combined with modern iceberg drift trajectories, their possible origin can be elucidated. Owing to the numbers of icebergs seen and their geographical spread, our results suggest that this was possibly the largest near-synchronous calvings in the last 300 years, and the northernmost extent of the SOLOKI.

Many populations of southern hemisphere baleen whales are recovering and are again becoming dominant consumers in the Southern Ocean. Key to understanding the present and future role of baleen whales in Southern Ocean ecosystems is determining their abundance on foraging grounds. Distance sampling is the standard method for estimating baleen whale abundance but requires specific logistic requirements which are rarely achieved in the remote Southern Ocean. We explore the potential use of tourist vessel-based sampling as a cost-effective solution for conducting distance sampling surveys for baleen whales in the Southern Ocean. We used a dataset of tourist vessel locations from the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and published knowledge from Southern Ocean sighting surveys to determine the number of tourist vessel voyages required for robust abundance estimates. Second, we simulated the abundance and distributions of four baleen whale species for the study area and sampled them with both standardized line transect surveys and non-standardized tourist vessel-based surveys, then compared modeled abundance and distributions from each survey to the original simulation. For the southwest Atlantic, we show that 12-22 tourist vessel voyages are likely required to estimate abundance for humpback and fin whales, with relative estimates for blue, sei, Antarctic minke, and southern right whales. Second, we show tourist vessel-based surveys outperformed standardized line transect surveys at reproducing simulated baleen whale abundances and distribution. These analyses suggest tourist vessel-based surveys are a viable method for estimating baleen whale abundance in remote regions. For the southwest Atlantic, the relatively cost-effective nature of tourist vessel-based survey and regularity of tourist vessel voyages could allow for annual and intra-annual estimates of abundance, a fundamental improvement on current methods, which may capture spatiotemporal trends in baleen whale movements on forging grounds. Comparative modeling of sampling methods provided insights into the behavior of general additive model-based abundance modeling, contributing to the development of detailed guidelines of best practices for these approaches. Through successful engagement with tourist company partners, this method has the potential to characterize abundance across a variety of marine species and spaces globally, and deliver high-quality scientific outcomes relevant to management organizations.

Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica.

Communication at the science-policy interface can be bewildering not only for early-career researchers, but also for many within the research community. In the context of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, decision-makers operating within the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) aspire to use the best available science as a basis for their decision-making. Therefore, to maximize the impact of Antarctic Treaty Parties' substantial investment in southern polar research, researchers wishing to contribute to policy and management must understand 1) how their work relates to and can potentially inform Antarctic and/or global policy and 2) the available mechanisms by which their research can be communicated to decision-makers. Recognizing these needs, we describe the main legal instruments relevant to Antarctic governance (primarily the ATS) and the associated meetings and stakeholders that contribute to policy development for the region. We highlight effective mechanisms by which Antarctic researchers may communicate their science into the policy realm, including through National Delegations or the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), and we detail the key contemporary topics of interest to decision-makers, including those issues where further research is needed. Finally, we describe challenges at the Antarctic science-policy interface that may potentially slow or halt policy development.

Understanding how climate change influences ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is one of the greatest challenges for projecting future sea level rise. The East Antarctic ice shelf cavities host cold water masses that limit melting, and only a few short-term observational studies exist on what drives warm water intrusions into these cavities. We analyse nine years of continuous oceanographic records from below Fimbulisen and relate them to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. On monthly time scales, warm inflow events are associated with weakened coastal easterlies reducing downwelling in front of the ice shelf. Since 2016, however, we observe sustained warming, with inflowing Warm Deep Water temperatures reaching above 0 °C. This is concurrent with an increase in satellite-derived basal melt rates of 0.62 m yr−1, which nearly doubles the basal mass loss at this relatively cold ice shelf cavity. We find that this transition is linked to a reduction in coastal sea ice cover through an increase in atmosphere–ocean momentum transfer and to a strengthening of remote subpolar westerlies. These results imply that East Antarctic ice shelves may become more exposed to warmer waters with a projected increase of circum-Antarctic westerlies, increasing this region’s relevance for sea level rise projections.

Signed in 1959, the Antarctic Treaty is usually hailed as an example of what states can achieve when they leave aside their interests and truly collaborate. It was over 30?years ago, however, that the last significant legal instrument of the Antarctic Treaty System (namely, the Protocol on Environmental Protection) was signed. Since then, no new legal instruments have been drafted, despite a number of growing internal and external challenges. In this special issue, an interdisciplinary group of scholars examine some of these challenges and evaluate whether the system is well prepared to tackle them. Their point of agreement is that, if not severely ill, the system's chronic ailments?particularly laggardness?must be addressed if it is to respond satisfactorily to rapid social, political, environmental and economic changes on a global scale.

Ice streams regulate most ice mass loss in Antarctica. Determining ice stream response to warmer conditions during the Pliocene could provide insights into their future behaviour, but this is hindered by a poor representation of subglacial topography in ice-sheet models. We address this limitation using a high-resolution model for Dronning Maud Land (East Antarctica). We show that contrary to dynamic thinning of the region’s ice streams following ice-shelf collapse, the largest ice stream, Jutulstraumen, thickens by 700 m despite lying on a retrograde bed slope. We attribute this counterintuitive thickening to a shallower Pliocene subglacial topography and inherent high lateral stresses at its flux gate. These conditions constrict ice drainage and, combined with increased snowfall, allow ice accumulation upstream. Similar stress balances and increased precipitation projections occur across 27% of present-day East Antarctica, and understanding how lateral stresses regulate ice-stream discharge is necessary for accurately assessing Antarctica’s future sea-level rise contribution.

The past six years have been marked by some of the most dramatic climatic events observed in the Antarctic region in recent history, commencing with the 2017 sea-ice extreme low. The Humpback Whale Sentinel Programme is a circum-polar biomonitoring program for long term surveillance of the Antarctic sea-ice ecosystem. It has previously signalled the extreme La Niña event of 2010/11, and it was therefore of interest to assess the capacity of existing biomonitoring measures under the program to detect the impacts of 2017 anomalous climatic events. Six ecophysiological markers of population adiposity, diet, and fecundity were targeted, as well as calf and juvenile mortality via stranding records. All indicators, with the exception of bulk stable isotope dietary tracers, indicated a negative trend in 2017, whilst C and N bulk stable isotopes appeared to indicate a lag phase resulting from the anomalous year. The collation of multiple biochemical, chemical, and observational lines of evidence via a single biomonitoring platform provides comprehensive information for evidence-led policy in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region.

Introduction: The Scotia Sea and Antarctic Peninsula are warming rapidly and changes in species distribution are expected. In predicting habitat shifts and considering appropriate management strategies for marine predators, a community-level understanding of how these predators are distributed is desirable. Acquiring such data, particularly in remote areas, is often problematic given the cost associated with the operation of research vessels. Here we use cruise vessels as sampling platforms to explore seabird distribution relative to habitat characteristics. Methods: Data on seabird at-sea distribution were collected using strip-transect counts throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea in the austral summer of 2019-2020. Constrained correspondence analysis (CCA) and generalized additive models (GAM) were used to relate seabird community composition, density, and species richness to environmental covariates. Results: Species assemblages differed between oceanographic areas, with sea surface temperature and distance to coast being the most important predictors of seabird distribution. Our results further revealed a geographic separation of distinct communities rather than hotspot regions in the study area in summer. Discussion: These findings highlight the importance of large-scale environmental characteristics in shaping seabird community structure, presumably through underlying prey distribution and interspecific interactions. The present study contributes to the knowledge of seabird distribution and habitat use as well as the baseline for assessing the response of Antarctic seabird communities to climate warming. We argue that cruise vessels, when combined with structured research surveys, can provide a cost-effective additional tool for the monitoring of community and ecosystem level changes.

At any one time 130 000 icebergs are afloat in the Southern Ocean; 97% of these are too small to be registered in current satellite-based databases, yet the melting of these small icebergs provides a major input to the Southern Ocean. We use a unique set of visual size observations of 53 000 icebergs in the South Atlantic Ocean, the SCAR International Iceberg Database, to derive average iceberg dissolution rates. Fracture into two parts is the dominant dissolution process for tabular icebergs, with an average half-life of 30 days for icebergs <4 km length and 60 days for larger icebergs. Complete shatter producing many icebergs <1 km length is rare. A side attrition rate of 0.23 m d−1 combined with drift speed of 6 km d−1, or any proportional change in both numbers fits the observed changes in iceberg distribution. The largest injection into the Southern Ocean of fresh water and any iceberg-transported material takes place in a ~2.3 × 10⁶ km2 zone extending east-northeast from the Antarctic Peninsula to the Greenwich meridian. The iceberg contribution to salinities and temperatures, with maximum contribution north of the Weddell Sea, differs in some regions, from those indicated by tracking large icebergs.

In 1981, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research endorsed a program for ship-based collection of Antarctic iceberg data, to be coordinated by the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI). From the austral summers 1982/1983 to 1997/1998, icebergs were recorded from most, and up to 2009/10 by fewer research vessels. The NPI database makes up 80% of the SCAR International Iceberg Database presented here, the remainder being Australian National Antarctic Research Expedition observations. The database contains positions of 374 142 icebergs resulting from 34 662 observations. Within these, 298 235 icebergs are classified into different size categories. The ship-based data are particularly useful because they include systematic observations of smaller icebergs not covered by current satellite-based datasets. Here, we assess regional and seasonal variations in iceberg density and total quantities, we identify drift patterns and exit zones from the continent, and we discuss iceberg dissolution rates and calving rates. There are significant differences in the extent of icebergs observed over the 30 plus years of observations, but much of these can be ascribed to differences in observation density and location. In the summer, Antarctic icebergs >10 m in length number ~130 000 of which 1000 are found north of the Southern Ocean boundary.

We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq; %) and intensity (MPI-int; K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23%–35%, MPI-int 1.2–2.1 K), lowest (2%–3%, <0 K) for the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10%–24% and 0.6–1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3–4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties.

Observations of ocean-driven grounding-line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica raise the question of an imminent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under the present-day climate. To this aim, we first calibrate a sub-shelf melt parameterization, which is derived from an ocean box model, with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes, making it suitable for present-day simulations and future sea level projections. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend the simulations for another 10 000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing and bathymetry. We test for reversibility of grounding-line movement in the case that large-scale retreat occurs. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment we find irreversible retreat of the Thwaites Glacier for all our parameter combinations and irreversible retreat of the Pine Island Glacier for some admissible parameter combinations. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector is initiated at the earliest between 300 and 500 years in our simulations and is not inevitable yet – as also shown in our companion paper (Part 1, Hill et al., 2023). In other words, the region has not tipped yet. With the assumption of constant present-day climate, the collapse evolves on millennial timescales, with a maximum rate of 0.9 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. The contribution to sea level by 2300 is limited to 8 cm with a maximum rate of 0.4 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. Furthermore, when allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry, we find that large-scale grounding-line retreat into marine basins upstream of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the western Siple Coast is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate.