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The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Ozone depletion over Polar Regions is monitored each year by satellite and ground-based instruments. The first signs of healing of the ozone layer linked to the decrease of ozone destructive substances (ODSs) were observed in Antarctica using different metrics (ozone mean values, ozone mass deficit, area of the ozone hole) and simple or sophisticated models. Chemistry climate models predict that climate change will not affect expected ozone recovery over Antarctica but will accelerate recovery in the Arctic due to the possible enhancement of the Brewer Dobson circulation. However, ozone loss observations by SAOZ UV-Vis spectrometers do not show a clear sign of recovery in the latter region. In addition, a record of 38% ozone loss in 2010/2011 and 2019/2020 was estimated. In this study, the vortex-averaged ozone loss in the last three decades will be evaluated for both Polar Regions using the passive ozone tracer of two chemical transport models (REPROBUS and SLIMCAT CTMs) and total ozone observations from SAOZ and satellite observations (IASI/METOP and Multi-Sensor Reanalysis (MSR-2)). The tracer method allows us to determine the evolution of the daily rate of ozone destruction, and the amplitude of the cumulative loss at the end of the winter. The cumulative ozone destruction in the Artic varies between 0-10% in relatively warm winters with short vortex duration to up to 25-38% in colder winters with longer vortex persistence, while in Antarctica it is mostly stable, around 50%. Interannual variability of 10-days average rate will be analyzed and compared between both hemispheres as well as the timing to reach different thresholds of absolute ozone loss values. Finally, linear trend of ozone loss and temperature since 2000 will be estimated in both Polar Regions in order to evaluate possible ozone recovery.

Global targets for area-based conservation and management must move beyond threshold-based targets alone and must account for the quality of such areas. In the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, a region where key biodiversity faces unprecedented risks from climate change and where there is a growing demand to extract resources, a number of marine areas have been afforded enhanced conservation or management measures through two adopted marine protected areas (MPAs). However, evidence suggests that additional high quality areas could benefit from a proposed network of MPAs. Penguins offer a particular opportunity to identify high quality areas because these birds, as highly visible central-place foragers, are considered indicator species whose populations reflect the state of the surrounding marine environment. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of the location of penguin colonies and their associated abundance estimates in Antarctica. We then estimated the at-sea distribution of birds based on information derived from tracking data and through the application of a modified foraging radius approach with a density decay function to identify some of the most important marine areas for chick-rearing adult penguins throughout waters surrounding Antarctica following the Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) framework. Additionally, we assessed how marine IBAs overlapped with the currently adopted and proposed network of key management areas (primarily MPAs), and how the krill fishery likely overlapped with marine IBAs over the past five decades. We identified 63 marine IBAs throughout Antarctic waters and found that were the proposed MPAs to be adopted, the permanent conservation of high quality areas for penguin species would increase by between 49 and 100% depending on the species. Furthermore, our data show that, despite a generally contracting range of operation by the krill fishery in Antarctica over the past five decades, a consistently disproportionate amount of krill is being harvested within marine IBAs compared to the total area in which the fishery operates. Our results support the designation of the proposed MPA network and offer additional guidance as to where decision-makers should act before further perturbation occurs in the Antarctic marine ecosystem.

Curvilinear channels on the surface of an ice shelf indicate the presence of large channels at the base. Modelling studies have shown that where these surface expressions intersect the grounding line, they coincide with the likely outflow of subglacial water. An understanding of the initiation and the ice–ocean evolution of the basal channels is required to understand the present behaviour and future dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves. Here, we present focused active seismic and radar surveys of a basal channel, ∼950 m wide and ∼200 m high, and its upstream continuation beneath Support Force Glacier, which feeds into the Filchner Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. Immediately seaward from the grounding line, below the basal channel, the seismic profiles show an ∼6.75 km long, 3.2 km wide and 200 m thick sedimentary sequence with chaotic to weakly stratified reflections we interpret as a grounding line fan deposited by a subglacial drainage channel directly upstream of the basal channel. Further downstream the seabed has a different character; it consists of harder, stratified consolidated sediments, deposited under different glaciological circumstances, or possibly bedrock. In contrast to the standard perception of a rapid change in ice shelf thickness just downstream of the grounding line, we find a flat topography of the ice shelf base with an almost constant ice thickness gradient along-flow, indicating only little basal melting, but an initial widening of the basal channel, which we ascribe to melting along its flanks. Our findings provide a detailed view of a more complex interaction between the ocean and subglacial hydrology to form basal channels in ice shelves.

The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near-freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW-sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer-based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two-year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year-long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW-derived ISW (Ronne-mode) or more locally derived Berkner-HSSW (Berkner-mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW-cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne-ISW preconditions Berkner-HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner- and Ronne-mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW.

The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near-freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW-sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer-based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two-year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year-long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW-derived ISW (Ronne-mode) or more locally derived Berkner-HSSW (Berkner-mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW-cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne-ISW preconditions Berkner-HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner- and Ronne-mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW.

It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2013 for the Weddell Sea region, paying special attention to regional patterns of error statistics. This is the first evaluation of NWP systems over the Southern Ocean that also addresses the accuracy of forecasted vertical profiles. In the evaluation, we use data from land- and ship-based automatic weather stations (AWS) and radiosoundings. While the ECMWF and AMPS forecasts are on average biased cold and dry near the surface, the GFS forecasts are on average biased warm and moist. The near-surface wind speed is on average overestimated by the AMPS forecasts, whereas it is slightly underestimated by the forecasts of the other two NWP systems. Among the variables investigated, all three NWP systems forecast the near-surface specific humidity most accurately, followed by the temperature and then the wind speed. The forecast quality for the near-surface and upper-air wind speed degrades the most rapidly with increasing lead time, compared to the other variables. ECMWF is the overall best NWP system when compared against both the near-surface and upper-air observations, followed by AMPS and then GFS. The generally poorest model performance is found in locations with complex terrain along the coast of the Antarctic continent, and the best over the ocean.

Knowing the magnitude and timing of pelagic primary production is important for ecosystem and carbon sequestration studies, in addition to providing basic understanding of phytoplankton functioning. In this study we use data from an ecosystem cruise to Kong Håkon VII Hav, in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, in March 2019 and more than two decades of satellite-derived ocean color to study phytoplankton bloom phenology. During the cruise we observed phytoplankton blooms in different bloom phases. By correlating bloom phenology indices (i.e., bloom initiation and end) based on satellite remote sensing to the timing of changes in environmental conditions (i.e., sea ice, light, and mixed layer depth) we studied the environmental factors that seemingly drive phytoplankton blooms in the area. Our results show that blooms mainly take place in January and February, consistent with previous studies that include the area. Sea ice retreat controls the bloom initiation in particular along the coast and the western part of the study area, whereas bloom end is not primarily connected to sea ice advance. Light availability in general is not appearing to control the bloom termination, neither is nutrient availability based on the autumn cruise where we observed non-depleted macronutrient reservoirs in the surface. Instead, we surmise that zooplankton grazing plays a potentially large role to end the bloom, and thus controls its duration. The spatial correlation of the highest bloom magnitude with marked topographic features indicate that the interaction of ocean currents with sea floor topography enhances primary productivity in this area, probably by natural fertilization. Based on the bloom timing and magnitude patterns, we identified five different bloom regimes in the area. A more detailed understanding of the region will help to highlight areas with the highest relevance for the carbon cycle, the marine ecosystem and spatial management. With this gained understanding of bloom phenology, it will also be possible to study potential shifts in bloom timing and associated trophic mismatch caused by environmental changes.

Estimates of the distribution and density of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba Dana, 1850) were derived from a large-scale survey conducted during the austral summer in the Southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and across the Scotia Sea in 2018–19, the ‘2018–19 Area 48 Survey’. Survey vessels were provided by Norway, the Association of Responsible Krill harvesting companies and Aker BioMarine AS, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Republic of Korea, and China. Survey design followed the transects of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources synoptic survey, carried out in 2000 and from regular national surveys performed in the South Atlantic sector by the U.S., China, Republic of Korea, Norway, and the U.K. The 2018–19 Area 48 Survey represents only the second large-scale survey performed in the area and this joint effort resulted in the largest ever total transect line (19,500 km) coverage carried out as one single exercise in the Southern Ocean. We delineated and integrated acoustic backscatter arising from krill swarms to produce distribution maps of krill areal biomass density and standing stock (biomass) estimates. Krill standing stock for the Area 48 was estimated to be 62.6 megatonnes (mean density of 30 g m–2 over 2 million km2) with a sampling coefficient variation of 13%. The highest mean krill densities were found in the South Orkney Islands stratum (93.2 g m–2) and the lowest in the South Georgia Island stratum (6.4 g m–2). The krill densities across the strata compared to those found during the previous survey indicate some regional differences in distribution and biomass. It is currently not possible to assign any such differences or lack of differences between the two survey datasets to longer term trends in the environment, krill stocks or fishing pressure.

In this paper, we examine potential impact of discharge in Subglacial Lake Engelhardt, West Antarctica, on the stability of the Ross Ice Shelf around the grounding line by combining satellite altimetry and remote sensing images. According to satellite altimetry data from the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat; 2003–06), Subglacial Lake Engelhardt (SLE) discharged ca. 1.91 ± 0.04 km3 of water into the downstream region. The ice-surface record derived from ICESat (2006–09) and CryoSat-2 (2011–17) data shows that the lake gained ca. 2.09 ± 0.05 km3 of water during the refilling event following the drainage event, taking three times as much time to reach the previous water level before the discharge; the calculation demonstrates that water input from an upstream lake is unable to sustain water increase in SLE, indicating that the subglacial, hydrologic system and groundwater flow could have contributed to water increase in SLE via hydrologic networks. Satellite images captured surface depressions and crevasses at the drainage outlet point of hydrologic networks around the grounding line; satellite altimetry data show that the ice surface there is still depressing even though the subglacial discharge has finished, potentially reflecting the long-term impact of subglacial discharge on the stability of the immediate Ross Ice Shelf around the grounding line. Keywords: Antarctic subglacial lakes; water storage change; satellite altimetry; remote sensing; hydraulic potential method.

To better capture the air-snow-ice interaction, a snow/ice enhanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ice) model has been developed. This study examines the performance of WRF-ice and its blowing snow component during a strong cyclone event from October 23 to 27, 2017 over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is characterized by a synoptic cyclone crossing the northern part of the Peninsula and an embodied mesoscale cyclone over the Weddell Sea. Evolution of the cyclone is accurately reproduced in the 5-km resolution WRF-ice simulation, and the simulated near-surface conditions agree well with station and satellite observations. Numerical simulations show that the process of blowing snow sublimation can be prominent within the lower atmosphere when the air is dry, and produces moistening and cooling effects. Over relatively warm and humid areas, cloud enhancement by blowing snow can lead to either colder or warmer surfaces because of competing effects of longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcings. In particular, additional moisture from blowing snow sublimation can slightly intensify precipitation over the mountains. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that absorbed shortwave (Sa), incoming longwave (Ld), and outgoing longwave (Lu) are dominant components of surface energy budget. When increases in Ld, Lu, and sensible heat flux are combined with decreases in Sa and latent heat flux due to blowing snow effects, a negative surface net heat flux (∼0.5 W/m2) occurs during daytime. A positive domain-total surface mass balance (∼0.43 Gt) is generated during the simulated cyclone event due to increases in precipitation, decreases in runoff, and decreases in sublimation.

Quantarctica (https://www.npolar.no/quantarctica) is a geospatial data package, analysis environment, and visualization platform for the Antarctic Continent, Southern Ocean (>40oS), and sub-Antarctic islands. Quantarctica works with the free, cross-platform Geographical Information System (GIS) software QGIS and can run without an Internet connection, making it a viable tool for fieldwork in remote areas. The data package includes basemaps, satellite imagery, terrain models, and scientific data in nine disciplines, including physical and biological sciences, environmental management, and social science. To provide a clear and responsive user experience, cartography and rendering settings are carefully prepared using colour sets that work well for typical data combinations and with consideration of users with common colour vision deficiencies. Metadata included in each dataset provides brief abstracts for non-specialists and references to the original data sources. Thus, Quantarctica provides an integrated environment to view and analyse multiple Antarctic datasets together conveniently and with a low entry barrier.

Antarctic krill <i>Euphausia superba</i>, a keystone species in the Southern Ocean, is highly relevant for studying effects of climate-related shifts on management systems. Krill provides a key link between primary producers and higher trophic levels and supports the largest regional fishery. Any major perturbation in the krill population would have severe ecological and economic ramifications. We review the literature to determine how climate change, in concert with other environmental changes, alters krill habitat, affects spatial distribution/abundance, and impacts fisheries management. Findings recently reported on the effects of climate change on krill distribution and abundance are inconsistent, however, raising questions regarding methods used to detect changes in density and biomass. One recent study reported a sharp decline in krill densities near their northern limit, accompanied by a poleward contraction in distribution in the Southwest Atlantic sector. Another recent study found no evidence of long-term decline in krill density or biomass and reported no evidence of a poleward shift in distribution. Moreover, with predicted decreases in phytoplankton production, vertical foraging migrations to the seabed may become more frequent, also impacting krill production and harvesting. Potentially cumulative impacts of climate change further compound the management challenge faced by CCAMLR, the organization responsible for conservation of Antarctic marine living resources: to detect changes in the abundance, distribution, and reproductive performance of krill and krill-dependent predator stocks and to respond to such change by adjusting its conservation measures. Based on CCAMLR reports and documents, we review the institutional framework, outline how climate change has been addressed within this organization, and examine the prospects for further advances toward ecosystem risk assessment and an adaptive management system.