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Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project?Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%?40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ?10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt.

Curvilinear channels on the surface of an ice shelf indicate the presence of large channels at the base. Modelling studies have shown that where these surface expressions intersect the grounding line, they coincide with the likely outflow of subglacial water. An understanding of the initiation and the ice–ocean evolution of the basal channels is required to understand the present behaviour and future dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves. Here, we present focused active seismic and radar surveys of a basal channel, ∼950 m wide and ∼200 m high, and its upstream continuation beneath Support Force Glacier, which feeds into the Filchner Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. Immediately seaward from the grounding line, below the basal channel, the seismic profiles show an ∼6.75 km long, 3.2 km wide and 200 m thick sedimentary sequence with chaotic to weakly stratified reflections we interpret as a grounding line fan deposited by a subglacial drainage channel directly upstream of the basal channel. Further downstream the seabed has a different character; it consists of harder, stratified consolidated sediments, deposited under different glaciological circumstances, or possibly bedrock. In contrast to the standard perception of a rapid change in ice shelf thickness just downstream of the grounding line, we find a flat topography of the ice shelf base with an almost constant ice thickness gradient along-flow, indicating only little basal melting, but an initial widening of the basal channel, which we ascribe to melting along its flanks. Our findings provide a detailed view of a more complex interaction between the ocean and subglacial hydrology to form basal channels in ice shelves.

To better capture the air-snow-ice interaction, a snow/ice enhanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ice) model has been developed. This study examines the performance of WRF-ice and its blowing snow component during a strong cyclone event from October 23 to 27, 2017 over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is characterized by a synoptic cyclone crossing the northern part of the Peninsula and an embodied mesoscale cyclone over the Weddell Sea. Evolution of the cyclone is accurately reproduced in the 5-km resolution WRF-ice simulation, and the simulated near-surface conditions agree well with station and satellite observations. Numerical simulations show that the process of blowing snow sublimation can be prominent within the lower atmosphere when the air is dry, and produces moistening and cooling effects. Over relatively warm and humid areas, cloud enhancement by blowing snow can lead to either colder or warmer surfaces because of competing effects of longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcings. In particular, additional moisture from blowing snow sublimation can slightly intensify precipitation over the mountains. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that absorbed shortwave (Sa), incoming longwave (Ld), and outgoing longwave (Lu) are dominant components of surface energy budget. When increases in Ld, Lu, and sensible heat flux are combined with decreases in Sa and latent heat flux due to blowing snow effects, a negative surface net heat flux (∼0.5 W/m2) occurs during daytime. A positive domain-total surface mass balance (∼0.43 Gt) is generated during the simulated cyclone event due to increases in precipitation, decreases in runoff, and decreases in sublimation.

Mixing by mesoscale eddies profoundly impacts climate and ecosystems by redistributing and storing dissolved tracers such as heat and carbon. Eddy mixing is parameterized in most numerical models of the ocean and climate. To reduce known sensitivity to such parameterizations, observational estimates of mixing are needed. However, logistical and technological limitations obstruct our ability to measure global time-varying mixing rates. Here, we extend mixing length theory with mean-flow suppression theory, and first surface modes, to estimate mixing from readily available observational-based climatological data, of salinity, temperature, pressure, and eddy kinetic energy at the sea surface. The resulting full-depth global maps of eddy mixing can reproduce the few available direct estimates and confirm the importance of mean-flow suppression of mixing. The results also emphasize the significant effect of eddy surface intensification and its relation to the vertical density stratification. These new insights in mixing dynamics will improve future mesoscale eddy mixing parameterizations.

The high-latitude ionosphere is highly dynamical with significant irregularities and density gradients. However, the spatial and temporal distributions of density gradients and irregularities are very different between the Arctic and Antarctic. In this report, we study the interhemispheric asymmetry of the large-scale (100 km) density gradients in both polar caps. Our results show that density gradients in the Arctic are enhanced during local winter (December solstice) with a peak around 19 UT. The UT and spatial distributions in the Antarctic local winter (June solstice) are similar to the Arctic except that they are reversed by 12 hr, which indicates a mirror symmetry between hemispheres. The 12-hr difference in the peak density gradients can be explained by the displacements between the geographic and geomagnetic poles. The only asymmetry (anomaly) is the persistence of strong density gradients in the southern polar cap during local summer (December solstice).

Microcontinents and continental fragments are small pieces of continental crust that are surrounded by oceanic lithosphere. Although classically associated with passive margin formation, here we present several preserved microcontinents and continental fragments associated with subduction systems. They are located in the Coral Sea, South China Sea, central Mediterranean and Scotia Sea regions, and a “proto-microcontinent,” in the Gulf of California. Reviewing the tectonic history of each region and interpreting a variety of geophysical data allows us to identify parameters controlling the formation of microcontinents and continental fragments in subduction settings. All these tectonic blocks experienced long, complex tectonic histories with an important role for developing inherited structures. They tend to form in back-arc locations and separate from their parent continent by oblique or rotational kinematics. The separated continental pieces and associated marginal basins are generally small and their formation is quick (<50 Myr). Microcontinents and continental fragments formed close to large continental masses tend to form faster than those created in systems bordered by large oceanic plates. A common triggering mechanism for their formation is difficult to identify, but seems to be linked with rapid changes of complex subduction dynamics. The young ages of all contemporary pieces found in situ suggest that microcontinents and continental fragments in these settings are short lived. Although presently the amount of in-situ subduction-related microcontinents is meager (an area of 0.56% and 0.28% of global, non-cratonic, continental crustal area and crustal volume, respectively), through time microcontinents contributed to terrane amalgamation and larger continent formation.

Because geoscientific research often occurs via community-instigated bursts of activity with multi-investigator collaborations variously labelled as e.g., years (The International Polar Year IPY), experiments (World Ocean Circulation Experiment WOCE), programs (International Ocean Discovery Program), missions (CRYOSAT spacecraft), or decades (The International Decade of Ocean Exploration IDOE), successful attainment of research goals generally requires skilful scientific project management. In addition to the usual challenges of matching scientific ambitions to limited resources, on-going coordination and specifically project management, planning and implementation of polar science projects often involve many uncertainties caused by, for example, unpredictable weather or ocean and sea ice conditions, large-scale logistical juggling; and often these collaborations are spatially distributed and take place virtually. Large amounts of funding are needed to procure the considerable infrastructure and technical equipment required for polar expeditions; permissions to enter certain regions must be requested; and potential risks for expedition members as well as technical issues in extreme environments need to be considered. All these aspects are challenging for polar science projects, which therefore need a well thought-through program including a realistic alternative “plan B” and possibly also a “plan C” and “plan D”. The four most challenging overarching themes in polar science project management have been identified: international cooperation, interdisciplinarity, infrastructure, and community management. In this paper, we address ongoing challenges and opportunities in polar science project management based on a survey among 199 project and community managers and an additional of 85 project team members active in the field of polar sciences. Case studies and survey results are discussed with the conclusive goal to provide recommendations on how to fully reach the potential of polar sciences project and community management.

For at least 120 Myr, the Kerguelen plume has distributed enormous amounts of magmatic rocks over various igneous provinces between India, Australia, and Antarctica. Previous attempts to reconstruct the complex history of this plume have revealed several characteristics that are inconsistent with properties typically associated with plumes. To explore the geodynamic behavior of the Kerguelen hotspot, and in particular address these inconsistencies, we set up a regional viscous flow model with the mantle convection code ASPECT. Our model features complex time-dependent boundary conditions in order to explicitly simulate the surrounding conditions of the Kerguelen plume. We show that a constant plume influx can result in a variable magma production rate if the plume interacts with nearby spreading ridges and that a dismembered plume, multiple plumes, or solitary waves in the plume conduit are not required to explain the fluctuating magma output and other unusual characteristics attributed to the Kerguelen hotspot.

While observed mesospheric polar nitric acid enhancements have been attributed to energetic particle precipitation through ion cluster chemistry in the past, this phenomenon is not reproduced in current whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate models. We investigate such nitric acid enhancements resulting from energetic electron precipitation events using a recently developed variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that includes a sophisticated ion chemistry tailored for the D-layer of the ionosphere (50–90 km), namely, WACCM-D. Using the specified dynamics mode, that is, nudging dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere to meteorological reanalyses, we perform a 1-year-long simulation (July 2009–June 2010) and contrast WACCM-D with the standard WACCM. Both WACCM and WACCM-D simulations are performed with and without forcing from medium-to-high energy electron precipitation, allowing a better representation of the energetic electrons penetrating into the mesosphere. We demonstrate the effects of the strong particle precipitation events which occurred during April and May 2010 on nitric acid and on key ion cluster species, as well as other relevant species of the nitrogen family. The 1-year-long simulation allows the event-related changes in neutral and ionic species to be placed in the context of their annual cycle. We especially highlight the role played by medium-to-high energy electrons in triggering ion cluster chemistry and ion-ion recombinations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the precipitation event, leading to enhanced production of nitric acid and raising its abundance by 2 orders of magnitude from 10−4 to a few 10−2 ppb.

Based on 8 RADARSAT-2 Ultrafine scenes from December 2017 to June 2018, ground displacements close to the Norvegia research station of Bouvet Island have been measured using Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR). The results show that loss of coherence related to erosion processes is affecting the coast west from the station. The mean velocity maps identify a well-defined unstable area south from Norvegia and by applying the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) time-series InSAR method, we are able to provide time series during the considered time period. The results tend to indicate that the area north from the current location of Norvegia station is more stable.

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) affect the chemistry and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Major warmings occur roughly every second winter in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), but has only been observed once in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), during the Antarctic winter of 2002. Observations by the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS, an instrument on board Envisat) during this rare event, show a 40% increase of ozone in the nighttime secondary ozone layer at subpolar latitudes compared to non-SSW years. This study investigates the cause of the mesospheric nighttime ozone increase, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM). The 2002 SH winter was characterized by several reductions of the strength of the polar night jet in the upper stratosphere before the jet reversed completely, marking the onset of the major SSW. At the time of these wind reductions, corresponding episodic increases can be seen in the modelled nighttime secondary ozone layer. This ozone increase is attributed largely to enhanced upwelling and the associated cooling of the altitude region in conjunction with the wind reversal. This is in correspondence to similar studies of SSW induced ozone enhancements in NH. But unlike its NH counterpart, the SH secondary ozone layer appeared to be impacted less by episodic variations in atomic hydrogen. Seasonally decreasing atomic hydrogen plays however a larger role in SH compared to NH.

The Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) and the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) collected around 150 hours of new gravity, magnetic and ice-penetrating radar data from east and south of Princess Elisabeth station in Dronning Maud Land between 2013 and 2015. Survey lines were spaced 10 km apart. The 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 used different gravimeters; a LaCoste and Romberg AirSea gravimeter (LCR) at constant barometric altitude and a Gravimetric Technologies GT2A gravimeter at constant ground separation. Both surveys used a Scintrex Cs-3 caesium vapour magnetometer mounted in a tail boom with compensation for the airframe calculated using a fuselage-mounted three-component fluxgate magnetometer. The GT2A gravity data reflect the effects of short-wavelength density contrasts between basement rocks and the ice sheet more reliably than the LCR data. Cross-over analysis suggests the repeatability of data collection with the GT2A lies at the sub-milliGal level. A broad subglacial channel that separates eastern Sør Rondane from the Yamato Belgica Mountains is evident in the gravity data. In the south of the survey region, the data reveal a dendritic pattern of subglacial valleys that converge towards the SW. Strong NS-trending magnetic anomalies coincide with the Yamato-Belgica Mountains. Further west, subtler ESE-trending anomalies confirm proposals that the SE Dronning Maud Land province continues into the region south of eastern Sør Rondane. An unexpected feature of both data sets is the apparent termination of the anomaly patterns associated with the province at a NNW-trending anomaly running south of Princess Elisabeth.

The interaction between the interplanetary magnetic field and the geomagnetic field sets up a large-scale circulation in the magnetosphere. This circulation is also reflected in the magnetically connected ionosphere. In this paper, we present a study of ionospheric convection based on Cluster Electron Drift Instrument (EDI) satellite measurements covering both hemispheres and obtained over a full solar cycle. The results from this study show that average flow patterns and polar cap potentials for a given orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field can be very different in the two hemispheres. In particular during southward directed interplanetary magnetic field conditions, and thus enhanced energy input from the solar wind, the measurements show that the southern polar cap has a higher cross polar cap potential. There are persistent north-south asymmetries, which cannot easily be explained by the influence of external drivers. These persistent asymmetries are primarily a result of the significant differences in the strength and configuration of the geomagnetic field between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Since the ionosphere is magnetically connected to the magnetosphere, this difference will also be reflected in the magnetosphere in the form of different feedback from the two hemispheres. Consequently, local ionospheric conditions and the geomagnetic field configuration are important for north-south asymmetries in large regions of geospace.

The Kalahari Craton is an important building block of the supercontinent Rodinia, but its position with respect to other cratons is still controversially discussed. The Maud Belt in East Antarctica is part of the extensive Namaqua-Natal-Maud Orogen along which Kalahari collided with another continent during Rodinia assembly. One of the continents that have been suggested as collision partners for Kalahari is Western Australia, with the Pinjarra Orogen as the counterpart to the Maud Belt. We investigate this connection from a geochronological point of view. SHRIMP U/Pb zircon analyses of three metasedimentary samples from the Maud Belt date Grenville-age metamorphism within the orogen at ca. 1100–1060Ma. One sample was later affected by Pan-African metamorphism at ca. 540Ma. A second sample is interpreted as a molasse of the Maud Belt and was deposited in the Neoproterozoic. Detrital zircons from all three samples are consistent with derivation of the sediments predominantly from within the Namaqua-Natal-Maud Belt, with minor contributions from the Kalahari Craton. No clear Western Australian fingerprint could be detected in the detrital ages and a direct comparison between detrital zircon ages from the Maud Belt and the Northampton Complex (Pinjarra Orogen, Western Australia) showed distinct differences in the age spectra. Altogether, we consider a collision between Kalahari and south-western Laurentia a more likely scenario.

Structural investigations in western Sør Rondane, eastern Dronning Maud Land (DML), provide new insights into the tectonic evolution of East Antarctica. One of the main structural features is the approximately 120 km long and several hundred meters wide WSW-ENE trending Main Shear Zone (MSZ). It is characterized by dextral high-strain ductile deformation under peak amphibolite-facies conditions. Crosscutting relationships with dated magmatic rocks bracket the activity of the MSZ between late Ediacaran to Cambrian times (circa 560 to 530 Ma). The MSZ separates Pan-African greenschist- to granulite-facies metamorphic rocks with “East African” affinities in the north from a Rayner-age early Neoproterozoic gabbro-tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite complex with “Indo-Antarctic” affinities in the south. It is interpreted to represent an important lithotectonic strike-slip boundary at a position close to the eastern margin of the East African-Antarctic Orogen (EAAO), which is assumed to be located farther south in the ice-covered region. Together with the possibly coeval left-lateral South Orvin Shear Zone in central DML, the MSZ may be related to NE directed lateral escape of the EAAO, whereas the Heimefront Shear Zone and South Kirwanveggen Shear Zone of western DML are part of the south directed branch of this bilateral system.

The paleo-topography of East Antarctica is highly relevant for the development of the East Antarctic ice-sheet. It is likely that the 1500 km long, coast-parallel Dronning Maud Land Mountains have resulted in a significant amount of precipitation prior to the initiation of the 34 Ma glaciation history of East Antarctica. Due to this, the paleo-topography should be used as an important input parameter for the glaciation history. The amount of quantitative measurements for the exhumation history of Antarctica is very limited as 98% of the continent is covered by ice. However, since the onset of thermochronological studies in the Dronning Maud Land Mountains in 1992, the area has been a subject of several thermochronological studies. The first thermochronological studies from Heimefrontfjella and Mannefjellknausane recorded a Jurassic thermal event associated with the Jurassic flood basalts related to the Karoo mantle plume and the rifting between East Antarctica and East Africa. Thermochronological data from Heimefrontfjella and Mannefjellknausane published by Jacobs and Lisker (1999) indicated that the Mesoproterozoic basement and the Permian sandstones were covered by 2000 meters of Jurassic flood basalt. In the Mühlig-Hofmann Mountains and the Gjelsvikfjella to the E, no significant Jurassic thermal event have been recorded. However, a combined titanite and apatite study by Emmel, et al. (2009) did not record any significant Jurassic thermal event in the Gjelsvikfjella and Mühlig-Hofmann Mountains. This has been used as a constraint for the lateral extent of the flood basalts. Also, the thermochronological analyses presented in Jacobs and Lisker (1999) indicated that the AFT ages get progressively older towards the SE. Based on these analyses; paleo-isotherms dipping towards the SE were suggested. In addition to the already published data, new, unpublished AHe data from a transect of the northern part of Jutulstraumen show relatively young ages at the rift flanks (~50 Ma) and progressively older ages further away from the rift flanks, indicating significant Cenozoic erosion (Ksienzyk et al., unpublished data). This is the basis for presently ongoing thermochronological studies.

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007–2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963–2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10–20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process-oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model's ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model's circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.