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Climate is altering rapidly in parts of the Arctic and Antarctic but we know little about how marine organisms are responding to, or might respond to such changes. Knowledge of within-taxon variability is the vital context (currently missing) to interpretation of environmental signals. We investigated growth in six species and three genera of erect Antarctic bryozoans, an ideal model taxon to investigate such response. Cellarinella margueritae, C. nodulata, C. rogickae, C. watersi, Melicerita obliqua and Stomhypselosaria watersi, extended 3.4, 5.2, 4.6, 4.1, 4.9 and 4.5 mm year(-1) and synthesised 24, 55, 45, 176, 34 and 46 mg CaCO3 year(-1), respectively. The maximum ages of these species ranged from 11 to 15 years except M. obliqua, which reached 32 years. This is the first investigation of growth rates of closely related Antarctic invertebrate species and reports the slowest growth rates of bryozoans known from anywhere to date. Our data coupled with that from literature shows that Antarctic bryozoan growth varies << 10(1) between species, 10(1) between genera, 10(2) between morphologies and is similar to 10(1) slower than in tropical or temperate regions. However, within encrusting types the slowest growing species grow at similar rates from poles to tropics. Age was a strong confounding factor across our Antarctic study species but age-standardised data showed a possible decline in annual growth from 1992 to 2003. We identify several factors increasing this environmental signal strength, including (1) the importance of generic (though not necessarily species) identification and (2) use of dry-mass or ash-free dry-mass as the measures of growth.

Dynamic behaviour of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the later quaternary climatic cycles, pliocene to quaternary palaeoceanography in the Southwest Pacific, and holocene climate history of Maxwell Bay, King George Island.

Polar shores probably represent the most dynamic and extremely disturbed environments on the globe. Nevertheless intense battles amongst sessile organisms for space are commonplace on hard substrata, mainly between fast-growing pioneer species. In this study we examined spatial interactions in encrusting species at 3 sites within each of 2 high Arctic localities, Horsundfjord (77°N) and Kongsfjord (79°N) in Spitsbergen, and 2 Antarctic localities, Signy Island (60°S) and Adelaide Island (68°S). In both polar regions 1 to 11% of encrusting fauna were involved in intraspecific interactions. Intraspecific competition was common; it usually involved just 1 or 2 pioneer species, mainly ended in tied outcomes, and most variability was at a local scale. The proportion of intraspecific encounters varied considerably at local (km) scales (19 to 99% intraspecific at different sites), reflecting an extremely patchy environment due to ice scour. Most intraspecific encounters resulted in ties (stand-offs) and again most variability was at a local scale. Many intraspecific encounters were constructive, forming large (>1 m3) foliaceous colonies (termed bioconstructions) whose 3D structures can harbour rich biotas. In other colonies intraspecific competition caused crowding and accelerated ovicell production (reproductive activity). Homosyndrome (fusion) was not observed in the Arctic and was rare in the Antarctic, where its frequency differed significantly between competitor identities. We found that the likelihood of meeting conspecifics versus other species and of tied outcomes in encounters was related to the performance of species in interspecific competition: ties were most common, and homosyndrome only occurred in poor competitors. In the context of rapid Arctic and west Antarctic warming and ice-loading of nearshore waters, we predict strongly changing patterns of intraspecific competition. Indeed we suggest that decreased patchiness of intra- versus interspecific competition and decreased levels of intraspecific competition should be strong indicators of increases in surface water ice-loading from ice-sheet collapses. KEYWORDS: Sublittoral · Benthos · Bioconstruction · Climate change · Homosyndrome

Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup Of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001, A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and codes have been accordingly modified. This relevant numerical help coming from the computer science can now allow scientists to devote larger attention in the efforts of understanding the deep mechanisms of such complex processes.

The Holocene climate is simulated in a 9000-yr-long transient experiment performed with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model. This experiment is forced with annually varying orbital parameters and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4. The objective is to study the impact of these long-term forcings on the surface temperature evolution during different seasons in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. We find in summer a thermal optimum in the midHolocene (6-3 ka BP), with temperatures locally 3°C above the preindustrial mean. In autumn the temperatures experienced a long-term increase, particularly during the first few thousand years. The opposite trend was simulated for winter and spring, with a relatively warm Southern Ocean at 9 ka BP in winter (up to 3.5°C above the preindustrial mean) and a warm continent in spring (+3°C), followed by a gradual cooling towards the present. These long-term temperature trends can be explained by a combination of (1) a delayed response to orbital forcing, with temperatures lagging insolation by 1 to 2 months owing to the thermal inertia of the system, and (2) the long memory of the Southern Ocean. This long memory is related to the storage of the warm late winter-spring anomaly below the shallower summer mixed layer until next winter. Sea ice plays an important role as an amplifying factor through the ice-albedo and ice-insulation feedbacks. Our experiments can help to improve our understanding of the Holocene signal in proxies. For instance, the results suggest that, in contrast to recent propositions, teleconnections to the Northern Hemisphere appear not necessarily to explain the history of Southern Hemisphere temperature changes during the Holocene.

A suite of standard ocean hydrographic and circulation metrics are applied to the equilibrium physical solutions from 13 global carbon models participating in phase 2 of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Model-data comparisons are presented for sea surface temperature and salinity, seasonal mixed layer depth, meridional heat and freshwater transport, 3-D hydrographic fields, and meridional overturning. Considerable variation exists among the OCMIP-2 simulations, with some of the solutions falling noticeably outside available observational constraints. For some cases, model-model and model-data differences can be related to variations in surface forcing, subgrid-scale parameterizations, and model architecture. These errors in the physical metrics point to significant problems in the underlying model representations of ocean transport and dynamics, problems that directly affect the OCMIP predicted ocean tracer and carbon cycle variables (e.g., air-sea CO2 flux, chlorofluorocarbon and anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and export production). A substantial fraction of the large model-model ranges in OCMIP-2 biogeochemical fields (±25–40%) represents the propagation of known errors in model physics. Therefore the model-model spread likely overstates the uncertainty in our current understanding of the ocean carbon system, particularly for transport-dominated fields such as the historical uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A full error assessment, however, would need to account for additional sources of uncertainty such as more complex biological-chemical-physical interactions, biases arising from poorly resolved or neglected physical processes, and climate change.

The Holocene climate of the Southern Ocean is not well understood, mainly because of the lack of high-resolution reconstructions of ocean surface properties. Here we present a 12,500-yr-long, decadal-scale record of Holocene sea-surface temperatures and sea- ice presence from the Polar Front of the East Atlantic Southern Ocean. The record shows gradual climate change, with no abrupt Neoglacial cooling, and an unprecedented late Holocene warming. The dominant forcing factor appears to be precessional insolation; Northern Hemisphere summer insolation correlates to at least the early to middle Holocene climate trend. Spectral analysis reveals centennial-scale cyclic climate changes with periods of 1220, 1070, 400, and 150 yr. The record shows good correlation to East Antarctic ice cores and to climate records from South Georgia and Bunger Oasis. However, the record shows out-of-phase behavior with regard to climate records from the western Antarctic Peninsula and the Peru-Chile Current; such behavior hints at a climatic divide through Patagonia, the Drake Passage, and between West and East Antarctica.

Sea ice is a remarkable component of the global climate system. It can form over up to about 10 % of the global ocean area, and creates an insulating barrier between the relatively warm seawater and the cold atmosphere, allowing a temperature difference that may be tens of degrees over only a couple of meters. It reduces evaporation from the ocean, leading to a drier atmosphere than would otherwise exist. Sea ice modifies the radiation balance at the Earth’s surface because it supports snow (the most reflective of the Earth’s natural surfaces, with an albedo of up to approximately 0.8), where otherwise there would be seawater (the least reflective, with an albedo of about 0.07). As sea ice forms it excludes brine, deepening the ocean surface mixed layer and influencing the formation of deep and bottom water. As it melts, it releases relatively fresh water, stratifying the upper layers of the ocean. Through these processes sea ice exerts an enormous influence on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation in cold regions and indeed the climate of the rest of the globe.

The distribution of calcareous dinoflagellates has been analysed for the Maastrichtian–Miocene interval of Ocean Drilling Project Hole 689B (Maud Rise, Weddell Sea). The investigation thus represents a primary evaluation of the long-term evolution in high-latitude calcareous dinoflagellate assemblages during the transition from a relatively warm Late Cretaceous to a cold Neogene climate. Major assemblage changes during this interval occurred in characteristic steps: (1) an increase in relative abundance of tangentially structured species – particularly Operculodinella operculata – at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; (2) a diversity decrease and several first and last appearances across the Middle–Late Eocene boundary, possibly attributed to increased climate cooling; (3) a diversity decrease associated with the dominance of Calciodinellum levantinum in the late Early Oligocene; (4) the reappearance and dominance of Pirumella edgarii in the Early Miocene, probably reflecting a warming trend; (5) monogeneric assemblages dominated by Caracomia spp. denoting strong Middle Miocene cooling. The results not only extend the biogeographic ranges of many taxa into the Antarctic region, but also indicate that the evolution of high-latitude calcareous dinoflagellate assemblages parallels the changing environmental conditions in the course of the Cenozoic climate transition. Therefore, calcareous dinoflagellates contribute to our understanding of the biotic effects associated with palaeoenvironmental changes and might possess the potential for reconstructing past conditions. The flora in the core includes one new taxon: Caracomia arctica forma spinosa Hildebrand-Habel and Streng, forma nov. Additionally, two new combinations are proposed: Fuettererella deflandrei (Kamptner, 1956) Hildebrand-Habel and Streng, comb. nov. and Fuettererella flora (Fütterer, 1990) Hildebrand-Habel and Streng, comb. nov.

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), ice thickened considerably and expanded toward the outer continental shelf around the Antarctic Peninsula. Deglaciation occurred between >14 ka BP and ca. 6 ka BP, when interglacial climate was established in the region. Deglaciation of some local sites was as recent as 4?3 ka BP. After a climate optimum, peaking ca. 4?3 ka BP, a distinct climate cooling occurred. It is characterized at a number of sites by expanding glaciers and ice shelves. Rapid warming during the past 50 yr may be causing instability of some Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. Detailed reconstructions of the glacial and climatic history of the Antarctic Peninsula since LGM are hampered by scarcity of available archives, low resolution of many datasets, and problems in dating samples. Consequently, the configuration of LGM ice sheets, pattern of subsequent deglaciation, and environmental changes are poorly constrained both temporally and spatially.

The extent of ice, thickness and dynamics of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheets in the Antarctic Peninsula region, as well as the pattern of subsequent deglaciation and climate development, are not well constrained in time and space. During the LGM, ice thickened considerably and expanded towards the middle–outer submarine shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula. Deglaciation was slow, occurring mainly between >14 Ky BP (14C kilo years before present) and ca. 6 Ky BP, when interglacial climate was established in the region. After a climate optimum, peaking ca. 4 - 3 Ky BP, a cooling trend started, with expanding glaciers and ice shelves. Rapid warming during the past 50 years may be causing instability to some Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves.

A detailed climate proxy record based on δ18O, δ13O, and grey index of a well-dated stalagmite from Cold Air Cave in the Makapansgat Valley of north-eastern South Africa suggests that regional precipitation, temperatures and vegetation oscillated markedly and rapidly over the last ∼6500 years on centennial and multi-decadal scales. The mid-Holocene prior to 5200 years ago was humid and warm. A fundamental transition occurred 3200 years ago, leading to drier and cooler conditions that culminated at 1750 AD. Comparisons with ice core records suggest synchronous changes implicating rapid global teleconnections.

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.

The altitude dependent variability of ozone in the polar stratosphere is regularly observed by balloon-borne ozonesonde observations at Neumayer Station (70°S) in the Antarctic and at Koldewey Station (79°N) in the Arctic. The reasons for observed seasonal and interannual variability and long-term changes are discussed. Differences between the hemispheres are identified and discussed in light of differing dynamical and chemical conditions. Since the mid- 1980s, rapid chemical ozone loss has been recorded in the lower Antarctic stratosphere during the spring season. Using coordinated ozone soundings in some Arctic winters, similar chemical ozone loss rates have been detected related to periods of low temperatures. The currently observed cooling trend of the stratosphere, potentially caused by the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may further strengthen chemical ozone removal in the Arctic. However, the role of internal climate oscillations in observed temperature trends is still uncertain. First results of a 10000 year integration of a low order climate model indicate significant internal climate variability. on decadal time scales, that may alter the effect of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the polar stratosphere.

The future development of stratospheric ozone layer depends on the concentration of chlorine and bromine containing species. The stratosphere is also expected to be affected by future enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. These result in a cooling of the winter polar stratosphere and to more stable polar vortices which leads to enhanced chemical depletion and reduced transport of ozone into high latitudes. One of the driving forces behind the interest in stratospheric ozone is the impact of ozone on solar UV-B radiation. In this study UV scenarios have been constructed based on ozone predictions from the chemistry-climate model runs carried out by GISS, UKMO and DLR. Since cloudiness, albedo and terrain height are also important factors, climatological values of these quantities are taken into account in the UV calculations. Relative to 1979–92 conditions, for the 2010–2020 time period the GISS model results indicate a springtime enhancement of erythemal UV doses of up to 90% in the 60–90 °N region and an enhancement of 100% in the 60–90 °S region. The corresponding maximum increases in the annual Northern Hemispheric UV doses are estimated to be 14% in 2010–20, and 2% in 2040–50. In the Southern Hemisphere 40% enhancement is expected during 2010–20 and 27% during 2040–50.

Ice at or below the surface of the planet Earth is an important part of the climate system. The solid phase of water has two unique characteristics which make it both an early indicator of climate change and a global player. First, if warmed to the melting point at 0°C, higher air temperatures and/or higher long-wave back radiation just increase the melting rate but not - as with all other surfaces- the temperature, which stays at 0°C. Small icecaps and mountain glaciers thus become early indicators of a changed climate. Second. If seawater is cooled to the freezing point at about- 1.8"C. the sea ice formation process ejects salt causing the denser water to sink, thereby filling the global ocean interior with very cold water. The location where most of this deep convection occurs is strongly dependent on the freshwater balance and thus on the average salinity of ocean basins. Present ocean configuration and ocean topography, as well as precipitation distribution, make the northern North Atlantic more saline than any other high latitude ocean part and thus the site with most of this deep water formation. Sea ice formation is therefore of high significance for the European climate. Since it drives the near surface warm North Atlantic current northward off the European coast in compensation for southward deep water flow in the western Atlantic, northwestern Europe is warmer by about 4°C than the same latitudes on the eastern Pacific coast of America.