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Abstract Global warming has prompted globally widespread permafrost thawing, resulting in enhanced greenhouse gas release into the atmosphere. Studies conducted in the Northern Hemisphere reveal an alarming increase in permafrost thawing. However, similar data from Antarctica are scarce. We conducted a 2-D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography (DERT) survey in Taylor Valley, Antarctica, to image the distribution of permafrost, its thicknesses, lower boundaries, and hydrogeology. Results show resistive, discontinuous domains that we suggest represent permafrost units. We also find highly conductive layers (5?10 Ω·m), between 300?350 m and 600?650 m below ground level and a shallower (?50?100 m depth) conductive layer. The combined data set reveals a broad brine system in Taylor Valley, implying multi-tiered groundwater circulation: a shallow, localized system linked with surface water bodies and a separate deeper, regional circulation system. The arrangement of these brines across different levels, coupled with the uneven permafrost distribution, underscores potential interplay between the two systems.

Ocean general circulation models at the eddy-permitting regime are known to under-resolve the mesoscale eddy activity and associated eddy-mean interaction. Under-resolving the mesoscale eddy field has consequences for the resulting mean state, affecting the modelled ocean circulation and biogeochemical responses, and impacting the quality of climate projections. There is an ongoing debate on whether and how a parameterisation should be utilised in the eddy-permitting regime. Focusing on the Gent–McWilliams (GM) based parameterisations, it is known that, on the one hand, not utilising a parameterisation leads to insufficient eddy feedback and results in biases. On the other hand, utilising a parameterisation leads to double-counting of the eddy feedback, and introduces other biases. A recently proposed approach, known as splitting, modifies the way GM-based schemes are applied in eddy-permitting regimes, and has been demonstrated to be effective in an idealised Southern Ocean channel model. In this work, we evaluate whether the splitting approach can lead to improvements in the physical and biogeochemical responses in an idealised double gyre model. Compared with a high resolution mesoscale eddy resolving model truth, the use of the GM-based GEOMETRIC parameterisation together with splitting in the eddy-permitting regime leads to broad improvements in the control pre-industrial scenario and an idealised climate change scenario, over models with and models without the GM-based GEOMETRIC parameterisation active. While there are still some deficiencies, particularly in the subtropical region where the transport is too weak and may need momentum re-injection to reduce the biases, the present work provides further evidence in support of using the splitting procedure together with a GM-based parameterisation in ocean general circulation models at eddy-permitting resolutions.

Marine predators are integral to the functioning of marine ecosystems, and their consumption requirements should be integrated into ecosystem-based management policies. However, estimating prey consumption in diving marine predators requires innovative methods as predator-prey interactions are rarely observable. We developed a novel method, validated by animal-borne video, that uses tri-axial acceleration and depth data to quantify prey capture rates in chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica). These penguins are important consumers of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), a commercially harvested crustacean central to the Southern Ocean food web. We collected a large data set (n = 41 individuals) comprising overlapping video, accelerometer and depth data from foraging penguins. Prey captures were manually identified in videos, and those observations were used in supervised training of two deep learning neural networks (convolutional neural network (CNN) and V-Net). Although the CNN and V-Net architectures and input data pipelines differed, both trained models were able to predict prey captures from new acceleration and depth data (linear regression slope of predictions against video-observed prey captures = 1.13; R2 approximate to 0.86). Our results illustrate that deep learning algorithms offer a means to process the large quantities of data generated by contemporary bio-logging sensors to robustly estimate prey capture events in diving marine predators.

Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project?Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%?40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ?10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.

Model projections suggest that the continental shelf in the southern Weddell Sea may experience a shift from today's near-freezing temperature to a much warmer state, where warm water floods the shelf and basal melt rates beneath the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf increase dramatically. Today, the Filchner Trough serves as a conduit for the southward flow of Warm Deep Water (WDW) during summer and, thus, requires continuous monitoring of its hydrographic conditions. An extensive network of moorings was installed at key sites along the inflow pathway from 2017 to 2021, to expand on existing mooring records starting in 2014. The moorings complemented with under-ice profiling floats reveal two inflow pathways, where WDW enters along the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough as well as through a smaller trough east of there. Within the observed period, 2017 and 2018 feature anomalously warm inflows. The inflow is regulated by the heaving of isopycnals over the continental slope, and the southward propagation toward Filchner Ice Shelf is two times faster during these warm years. Furthermore, the warm years coincide with low summer sea ice concentration, which enhances surface stratification through increased freshwater input and modifies sea ice-ocean stresses that both act to lift the warm water layer and increase the temperatures on the continental shelf. Finally, the recent record low sea ice conditions around the Antarctic emphasize the importance of our findings and raise concerns regarding a potentially increasing presence of WDW on the southern Weddell Sea shelf.

Did you know that ecosystems support the wellbeing of humans by simply existing? An ecosystem describes the living things in an area, their interactions, and their environment. The ways that ecosystems benefit the wellbeing of humans are called ecosystem services. There are several types of ecosystem services: supporting (they support animals and their homes), provisioning (they provide food and other materials), cultural (they support our hobbies and cultural activities, such as tourism and arts), or regulating (they regulate our climate, for example by taking up carbon dioxide). Understanding the importance of an ecosystem through its ecosystem services helps guide decisions regarding the environment, such as how much fishing or ship traffic should be allowed in an area, or if an area or species should be protected. In this article, we describe the specific ecosystem services of the sea ice and Southern Ocean around Antarctica.

Oceanic mesoscale eddy mixing plays a crucial role in Earth’s climate system by redistributing heat, salt, and carbon. For many ocean and climate models, mesoscale eddies still need to be parameterized. This is often done via an eddy diffusivity K , which sets the strength of turbulent downgradient tracer fluxes. A well-known effect is the modulation of K in the presence of background potential vorticity (PV) gradients, which suppresses cross-PV gradient mixing. Topographic slopes can induce such suppression through topographic PV gradients. However, this effect has received little attention, and topographic effects are often not included in parameterizations for K . In this study, we show that it is possible to describe the effect of topography on K analytically in a barotropic framework, using a simple stochastic representation of eddy–eddy interactions. We obtain an analytical expression for the depth-averaged K as a function of the bottom slope, which we validate against diagnosed eddy diffusivities from a numerical model. The obtained analytical expression can be generalized to any constant barotropic PV gradient. Moreover, the expression is consistent with empirical parameterizations for eddy diffusivity over topography from previous studies and provides a physical rationalization for these parameterizations. The new expression helps to understand how eddy diffusivities vary across the ocean, and thus how mesoscale eddies impact ocean mixing processes.

This study investigated the close kinship structure of southern right whales on feeding grounds during austral summer seasons. The study was based on biopsy samples of 171 individual whales, which were genotyped with 14 microsatellite DNA loci. Kinship was investigated by using the LOD (Log Odds) score, a relatedness index for a pair of genotypes. Based on a cut-off point of LODPO > 6, which was chosen to balance false positives and negatives, a total of 28 dyads were inferred. Among these, 25 were classified as parent-offspring pairs. Additional genetic (mitochondrial DNA haplotypes) and biological (estimated body length, sex) data were used to provide additional information on the inferred close kin pairs. The elapsed time between sampling varied from 0 (close kin detected in the same austral summer season) to 17 years. All the kin pairs occurred within the Antarctic Indo sector (85°-135°E) and no pair occurred between whales within and outside of this sector. Six pairs were between individuals in high (Antarctic) and lower latitudes. Results of the present analysis on kinship are consistent with the views that whales in the Indo sector of the Antarctic are related with the breeding ground in Southwest Australia, and that whales from this population can occupy different feeding grounds. The present study has the potential to contribute to the conservation of the southern right whales through the monitoring of important population parameters such as population sizes and growth rate, in addition to assist the interpretation of stock structure derived from standard population genetic analyses.

Earth’s obliquity and eccentricity cycles are strongly imprinted on Earth’s climate and widely used to measure geological time. However, the record of these imprints on the oxygen isotope record in deep-sea benthic foraminifera (δ18Ob) shows contradictory signals that violate isotopic principles and cause controversy over climate-ice sheet interactions. Here, we present a δ18Ob record of high fidelity from International Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1406 in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. We compare our record to other records for the time interval between 28 and 20 million years ago, when Earth was warmer than today, and only Antarctic ice sheets existed. The imprint of eccentricity on δ18Ob is remarkably consistent globally whereas the obliquity signal is inconsistent between sites, indicating that eccentricity was the primary pacemaker of land ice volume. The larger eccentricity-paced early Antarctic ice ages were vulnerable to rapid termination. These findings imply that the self-stabilizing hysteresis effects of large land-based early Antarctic ice sheets were strong enough to maintain ice growth despite consecutive insolation-induced polar warming episodes. However, rapid ice age terminations indicate that resistance to melting was weaker than simulated by numerical models and regularly overpowered, sometimes abruptly.

Knowledge gaps about how the ocean melts Antarctica's ice shelves, borne from a lack of observations, lead to large uncertainties in sea level predictions. Using high-resolution maps of the underside of Dotson Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, we reveal the imprint that ice shelf basal melting leaves on the ice. Convection and intermittent warm water intrusions form widespread terraced features through slow melting in quiescent areas, while shear-driven turbulence rapidly melts smooth, eroded topographies in outflow areas, as well as enigmatic teardrop-shaped indentations that result from boundary-layer flow rotation. Full-thickness ice fractures, with bases modified by basal melting and convective processes, are observed throughout the area. This new wealth of processes, all active under a single ice shelf, must be considered to accurately predict future Antarctic ice shelf melt. A unique dataset from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf shows a varied icescape created by differential melt mechanisms.

Terrestrial vegetation communities across Antarctica are characteristically sparse, presenting a challenge for mapping their occurrence using remote sensing at the continent scale. At present there is no continent-wide baseline record of Antarctic vegetation, and large-scale area estimates remain unquantified. With local vegetation distribution shifts now apparent and further predicted in response to environmental change across Antarctica, it is critical to establish a baseline to document these changes. Here we present a 10 m-resolution map of photosynthetic life in terrestrial and cryospheric habitats across the entire Antarctic continent, maritime archipelagos and islands south of 60° S. Using Sentinel-2 imagery (2017–2023) and spectral indices, we detected terrestrial green vegetation (vascular plants, bryophytes, green algae) and lichens across ice-free areas, and cryospheric green snow algae across coastal snowpacks. The detected vegetation occupies a total area of 44.2 km2, with over half contained in the South Shetland Islands, altogether contributing just 0.12% of the total ice-free area included in the analysis. Due to methodological constraints, dark-coloured lichens and cyanobacterial mats were excluded from the study. This vegetation map improves the geospatial data available for vegetation across Antarctica, and provides a tool for future conservation planning and large-scale biogeographic assessments.

During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles.

Much of the Antarctic coast is covered by seasonal landfast sea ice (fast ice), which serves as an important habitat for ice algae. Fast-ice algae provide a key early season food source for pelagic and benthic food webs, and contribute to biogeochemical cycling in Antarctic coastal ecosystems. Summertime fast ice is undergoing a decline, leading to more seasonal fast ice with unknown impacts on interconnected Earth system processes. Our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of Antarctic fast ice, and its impact on polar ecosystems is currently limited. Evaluating the overall productivity of fast-ice algae has historically been hampered by limitations in observations and models. By linking new fast-ice extent maps with a one-dimensional sea-ice biogeochemical model, we provide the first estimate of the spatio-seasonal variability of Antarctic fast-ice algal gross primary production (GPP) and its annual primary production on a circum-Antarctic scale. Experiments conducted for the 2005?2006 season provide a mean fast ice-algal production estimate of 2.8 Tg C/y. This estimate represents about 12% of overall Southern Ocean sea-ice algae production (estimated in a previous study), with the mean fast-ice algal production per area being 3.3 times higher than that of pack ice. Our Antarctic fast-ice GPP estimates are probably underestimated in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors because the sub-ice platelet layer habitats and their high biomass are not considered.

Satellite ocean color observations are extensively utilized in global carbon sink evaluation. However, the valid coverage of chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla, mg m−3) measurements from these observations is severely limited during autumn and winter in high latitude oceans. The high solar zenith angle (SZA) stands as one of the primary contributors to the reduced quality of Chla products in the high-latitude Southern Ocean during these seasons. This study addresses this challenge by employing a random forest-based regression ensemble (RFRE) method to enhance the quality of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Chla products affected by high SZA conditions. The RFRE model incorporates the color index (CI), band-ratio index (R), SZA, sensor zenith angle (senz), and Rayleigh-corrected reflectance at 869 nm (Rrc(869)) as predictors. The results indicate that the RFRE model significantly increased the MODIS observed Chla coverage (1.03 to 3.24 times) in high-latitude Southern Ocean regions to the quality of standard Chla products. By applying the recovered Chla to re-evaluate the carbon sink in South Ocean, results showed that the Southern Ocean’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) in winter has been underestimated (5.9–18.6 Tg C year−1) in previous assessments. This study underscores the significance of improving the Chla products for a more accurate estimation of winter carbon sink in the Southern Ocean.

Abstract Observed Antarctic sea ice trends up to 2015 have a distinct regional and seasonal pattern, with a loss during austral summer and autumn in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and a year-round increase in the Ross Sea. Global climate models generally failed to reproduce the magnitude of sea ice trends implying that the models miss relevant mechanisms. One possible mechanism is basal meltwater, which is generally not included in the current generation of climate models. Previous work on the effects of meltwater on sea ice has focused on thermodynamic processes. However, local freshening also leads to dynamic changes, affecting ocean currents through geostrophic balance. Using a coupled ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf model, we demonstrate that basal melting can intensify coastal currents in West Antarctica and the westward transport of sea ice. This change in transport results in sea ice anomalies consistent with observations, and may explain the disparity between climate models and observations.

From the Eocene (?50 million years ago) to today, Southern Ocean circulation has evolved from the existence of two ocean gyres to the dominance of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It has generally been thought that the opening of Southern Ocean gateways in the late Eocene, in addition to the alignment of westerly winds with these gateways or the presence of the Antarctic ice sheet, was a sufficient requirement for the transition to an ACC of similar strength to its modern equivalent. Nevertheless, models representing these changes produce a much weaker ACC. Here we show, using an eddying ocean model, that the missing ingredient in the transition to a modern ACC is deep convection around the Antarctic continent. This deep convection is caused by cold temperatures and high salinities due to sea-ice production around the Antarctic continent, leading to both the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and a modern-strength ACC.

Antarctic sea ice plays an important role in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and mediating Earth's climate system. Yet our understanding of biogeochemical cycling in sea ice is limited by the availability of relevant data over sufficient temporal and spatial scales. Here we present a new publicly available compilation of macronutrient concentration data from Antarctic land-fast sea ice, covering the full seasonal cycle using datasets from around Antarctica, as well as a smaller dataset of macronutrient concentrations in adjacent seawater. We show a strong seasonal cycle whereby nutrient concentrations are high during autumn and winter, due to supply from underlying surface waters, and then are utilised in spring and summer by mixed ice algal communities consisting of diatoms and non-siliceous species. Our data indicate some degree of nutrient limitation of ice algal primary production, with silicon limitation likely being most prevalent, although uncertainties remain around the affinities of sea-ice algae for each nutrient. Remineralisation of organic matter and nutrient recycling drive substantial accumulations of inorganic nitrogen, phosphate and to a lesser extent silicic acid in some ice cores to concentrations far in excess of those in surface waters. Nutrient supply to fast ice is enhanced by brine convection, platelet ice accumulation and incorporation into the ice matrix, and under-ice tidal currents, whilst nutrient adsorption to sea-ice surfaces, formation of biofilms, and abiotic mineral precipitation and dissolution can also influence fast-ice nutrient cycling. Concentrations of nitrate, ammonium and silicic acid were generally higher in fast ice than reported for Antarctic pack ice, and this may support the typically observed higher algal biomass in fast-ice environments.

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and Ice krill (Euphausia crystallorophias) are key species within Southern Ocean marine ecosystems. Given their importance in regional food webs, coupled with the uncertain impacts of climate change, the on-going recovery of krill-eating marine mammals, and the expanding commercial fishery for Antarctic krill, there is an increasing need to improve current estimates of their circumpolar habitat distribution. Here, we provide an estimate of the austral summer circumpolar habitat distribution of both species using an ensemble of habitat models and updated environmental covariates. Our models were able to resolve the segregated habitats of both species. We find that extensive potential habitat for Antarctic krill is mainly situated in the open ocean and concentrated in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, while Ice krill habitat was concentrated more evenly around the continent, largely over the continental shelf. Ice krill habitat was mainly predicted by surface oxygen concentration and water column temperature, while Antarctic krill was additionally characterized by mixed layer depth, distance to the continental shelf edge, and surface salinity. Our results further improve understanding about these key species, helping inform sustainable circumpolar management practices.

The paper analyses the economic and political history of the Ross Sea, where exploration, science, commercial exploitation, politics and adventure became highly interlinked and interwoven. Expedition accounts and the extensive literature on Antarctic history and politics inform the contextual aspects. The archives of the Norwegian whaling company A/S Rosshavet, established in 1923, and the United States of America and New Zealand archival material from the 1950s are key sources. From the first whaling season onwards, the impact of Antarctic whaling, and later scientific bases, highlights and illustrates the tensions between Antarctic commerce, territorial claims and international politics.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is pivotal for oceanic heat and carbon sequestrations on multidecadal to millennial timescales. The Weddell Sea contributes nearly a half of global AABW through Weddell Sea Deep Water and denser underlying Weddell Sea Bottom Water that form on the continental shelves via sea-ice production. Here we report an observed 30% reduction of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume since 1992, with the largest decrease in the densest classes. This is probably driven by a multidecadal reduction in dense-water production over southern continental shelf associated with a >40% decline in the sea-ice formation rate. The ice production decrease is driven by northerly wind trend, related to a phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation since the early 1990s, superposed by Amundsen Sea Low intrinsic variability. These results reveal key influences on exported AABW to the Atlantic abyss and their sensitivity to large-scale, multidecadal climate variability.