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If all the ice in the Antarctic ice sheet were to melt, the world’s oceans would rise about 58 metres. Although nobody expects anything that dramatic to happen, current knowledge doesn’t tell us what we might actually expect. The Fimbulisen project should help eliminate some of the uncertainty.

Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea). We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell–Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour. Keywords: Southern elephant seals; foraging ecology; satellite-relay data loggers; King George Island; Isla 25 de Mayo; at-sea behaviour.

A new satellite-based passive microwave sea-ice concentration product developed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Data Record (CDR) programme is evaluated via comparison with other passive microwave-derived estimates. The new product leverages two well-established concentration algorithms, known as the NASA Team and Bootstrap, both developed at and produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The sea-ice estimates compare well with similar GSFC products while also fulfilling all NOAA CDR initial operation capability (IOC) requirements, including (1) self-describing file format, (2) ISO 19115-2 compliant collection-level metadata, (3) Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant file-level metadata, (4) grid-cell level metadata (data quality fields), (5) fully automated and reproducible processing and (6) open online access to full documentation with version control, including source code and an algorithm theoretical basic document. The primary limitations of the GSFC products are lack of metadata and use of untracked manual corrections to the output fields. Smaller differences occur from minor variations in processing methods by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (for the CDR fields) and NASA (for the GSFC fields). The CDR concentrations do have some differences from the constituent GSFC concentrations, but trends and variability are not substantially different. Keywords: Sea ice; Arctic and Antarctic oceans; climate data record; evaluation; passive microwave remote sensing.

Measurements of total alkalinity (AT) and pH were made in the Ross Sea in January–February 2008 in order to characterize the carbonate system in the Ross Sea and to evaluate the variability associated with different water masses. The main water masses of the Ross Sea, Antarctic Surface Water, High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW), Deep Ice Shelf Water, Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and Antarctic Bottom Water, were identified on the basis of the physical and chemical data. In particular, the AT ranged between 2275 and 2374 µmol kg−1 with the lowest values in the surface waters (2275–2346 µmol kg−1), where the influence of the sea-ice melting and of the variability of the physical properties was significant. In the deep layers of the water column, the AT maxima were measured in correspondence to the preferential pathways of the spreading HSSW. The pH had variable values in the surface layer (7.890–8.033) with the highest values in Terra Nova Bay and Ross Sea polynyas. A low pH (7.969±0.025) traced the intrusion of the CDW in the Ross Sea shelf area. All samples revealed waters that were oversaturated with respect to both calcite and aragonite, but near corrosive levels of aragonite saturation state (Ω ca. 1.1–1.2) were associated with the entrainment of CDW over the slope. Aragonite undersaturation is of particular concern for the zooplankton species comprising to calcifying organisms such as pteropods. The partial pressure of CO2 at the sea surface was undersaturated with respect to the atmospheric value, particularly in Terra Nova Bay and the Ross Sea polynyas, but a large variability in the sea–air CO2 fluxes was observed associated with different responses in the strength of the biological and physical processes. Keywords: Total alkalinity; pH; saturation state; Terra Nova Bay polynya; Ross Sea.

Nearly three decades of stable isotope ratios and surface mass balance (SMB) data from eight shallow firn cores retrieved at Fimbul Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, in the Austral summers 2009–2011 have been investigated. An additional longer core drilled in 2000/2001 extends the series back to the early eighteenth century. Isotope ratios and SMB from the stacked record of all cores were also related to instrumental temperature data from Neumayer Station on Ekström Ice Shelf. Since the second half of the twentieth century, the SMB shows a statistically significant negative trend, whereas the δ18O of the cores shows a significant positive trend. No trend is found in air temperature at the nearest suitable weather station, Neumayer (available since 1981). This does not correspond to the statistically significant positive trend in Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which is usually associated with a cooling of East Antarctica. SAM index and SMB are negatively correlated, which might be explained by a decrease in meridional exchange of energy and moisture leading to lower precipitation amounts. Future monitoring of climate change on the sensitive Antarctic ice shelves is necessary to assess its consequences for sea level change.

Seabird abundances and breeding distribution have the potential to serve as ecological indicators. The western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the three sites in the world with the greatest increases in local temperature during the last 50 years. The aim of this study was to monitor the distribution and abundance of breeding populations of seabirds in the northern sector of the Danco Coast, north-west of the Antarctic Peninsula, during the breeding season 2010/11. The birds were the Wilson's storm petrel (Oceanites oceanicus), South Polar skua (Stercorarius maccormicki), kelp gull (Larus dominicanus), Antarctic tern (Sterna vittata), snowy sheathbill (Chionis alba), chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica), southern giant petrel (Macronectes giganteus), gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua), Cape petrel (Daption capense) and Antarctic shag (Phalacrocorax bransfieldensis). Annual breeding population growth increased in pygoscelids, southern giant petrel and sheathbill, and for the remaining species, breeding population trends were stable. Given that seabird populations can provide valuable information on the conditions of their feeding and nesting environments, this study highlights the need to maintain basics monitoring studies. Keywords: Seabird abundances; breeding distribution; Danco Coast; Antarctic Peninsula.

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.

Rapid climate change recorded in the western Antarctic Peninsula confronts species with less predictable conditions in the marine and terrestrial environments. We analysed the breeding chronology and nesting site selection of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) at King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, during four seasons in which differences in snow presence and persistence on the ground were observed. We recorded an overall delay as well as seasonal asynchrony at the beginning of reproduction for those years with higher snow deposition. A redistribution of breeding groups was also observed. Nevertheless, the population breeding success and chicks’ weight at fledging remained relatively constant, despite the delay in breeding chronology, the increased duration of foraging trips during the guard stage and the decreased weight of stomach contents during the crèche stage. We suggest that the plasticity of their trophic biology, along with the flexibility of their breeding phenology and relocation of breeding groups, may be complementary reasons why gentoo penguin populations in the region have remained stable in spite of the changing conditions currently registered. Keywords: Antarctica; breeding delay; breeding phenology; snow; Pygoscelis papua; Euphausia superba.

In addition to the chemical analyses providing total nutrient content, standardized water trophic status bioassays are useful in the determination of available nutrients for primary producers. The aim of the study was to determine the standardized values of algal growth potential (AGP) and algal primary productivity rate (APPR) of maritime Antarctic stream water using modified AGP/APPR protocols. The standardized values of AGP and the APPR of oligotrophic and mesotrophic water samples from snow-melt streams were measured, and possible nutrient limitation and heavy metal inhibition were evaluated at 5°C and 25°C using polar and temperate strains of Stichococcus bacillaris, respectively. The water samples were enriched for the nutrient limitation tests with 1000 mμ l-1 NO3- -N, 50 μg l-1 PO43- -P, and a mixture of 1000 μg l-1 NO3- -N + 50 μg l-1 PO43- -P, and for the heavy metal inhibition tests with 1000 mg l-1 Na2-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA). The AGP of oligotrophic samples was significantly lower than that of the mesotrophic ones at both temperatures. In addition, AGP was significantly higher at 5°C than at 25°C. Oligotrophic samples were identified as being nitrogen limited, while no nutrient limitation was observed in the mesotrophic samples. No statistically significant heavy metal inhibition was observed at either temperature. The positive correlation of AGP and water nutrient content indicates that the method used accurately and comprehensively monitors the changes in biological availability of mineral nutrients and can provide a standardized reference point for similar exploration of freshwater ecosystems across both polar regions. Keywords: Maritime Antarctic; microalgae; nutrient limitations; snow-melt stream water.

Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall. Here we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model, evaluated with available firn core records and gravimetry observations, and show that such episodes had not been seen previously in the satellite climate data era (1979). Comparisons with historical data that originate from firn cores, one with records extending back to the 18th century, confirm that accumulation anomalies of this scale have not occurred in the past ~60 years, although comparable anomalies are found further back in time. We examined several regional climate model projections, describing various warming scenarios into the 21st century. Anomalies with magnitudes similar to the recently observed ones were not present in the model output for the current climate, but were found increasingly probable toward the end of the 21st century.

Monitoring ice-sheet snowmelt is fundamental to understanding global climate change. A simple and automated snowmelt detection process is critical to the establishment of an ice-sheet snowmelt monitoring system. However, different ice-sheet snowmelt detection methods are based on a variety of thresholding schemes using different melt signals for dry and wet snow; these complicate the regular operation of an ice-sheet snowmelt monitoring. We propose an automated melt signal detection method developed using melt signals derived from the cross-gradient polarization ratio snowmelt detection method over Greenland and the wavelet transformation-based snowmelt detection method over Antarctica. Initial results indicate that the proposed method not only increases computational efficiency, practicability and operability but is also more accurate. Keywords: Ice sheet; snowmelt detection; radiometer; cross-gradient polarization ratio; wavelet transformation; generalized Gaussian model.

In this study, we present evidence that Antarctic and Arctic sea ice act as sink for atmospheric CO2 during periods of snowmelt and surface flooding. The CO2 flux measured directly at the flooded sea ice surface (Fflood) constituted a net CO2 sink of −1.1 ± 0.9 mmol C m−2 d−1 (mean ± 1 SD), which was an order of magnitude higher than the flux measured at the snow-air surface (Fsnow) and bare ice surface (Fice). The Fsnow/Fflood ratio decreased with increasing water equivalent of snow and superimposed-ice, suggesting that the properties of snow and superimposed-ice formation affect the magnitude of the CO2 flux. The Fsnow/Fflood ratio ranged from 0.1 to 0.5, illustrating that 50–90% of the potential flux at the flooded surface was reduced due to the presence of snow/superimposed-ice. Hence, snow cover properties and superimposed-ice play an important role in the CO2 fluxes across the sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface.

Many challenges remain for estimating the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), which represents a major uncertainty in predictions of future sea-level rise. Validating continental scale studies is hampered by the sparse distribution of in situ data. Here we present a 26 year mean SMB of the Fimbul ice shelf in East Antarctica between 1983–2009, and recent interannual variability since 2010. We compare these data to the results of large-scale SMB studies for similar time periods, obtained from regional atmospheric modeling and remote sensing. Our in situ data include ground penetrating radar, firn cores, and mass balance stakes and provide information on both temporal and spatial scales. The 26 year mean SMB on the Fimbul ice shelf varies between 170 and 620 kg m−2 a−1 giving a regional average value of 310 ± 70 kg m−2 a−1. Our measurements indicate higher long-term accumulation over large parts of the ice shelf compared to the large-scale studies. We also show that the variability of the mean annual SMB, which can be up to 90%, can be a dominant factor in short-term estimates. The results emphasize the importance of using a combination of ground-based validation data, regional climate models, and remote sensing over a relevant time period in order to achieve a reliable SMB for Antarctica.

King George Island is the largest island and the principal area used for research bases in Antarctica. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Poland, Russia, South Korea and Uruguay have permanent open bases on this island. Other countries have seasonal summer stations on different parts of this island, which demonstrates that human impact is strong on King George Island relative to other areas in the maritime and continental Antarctica. The objective of this work was to present a phytosociological approach for ice-free areas of Hennequin Point, eastern coast of Admiralty Bay, King George Island. The study started with the classification and description of the plant communities based primarily on phytosociological and biodiversity data. The area was mapped using an Astech Promark II® DGPS, yielding sub-metric precision after post-processing with software. The plant communities were described as follows: (1) lichen and moss cushion formation; (2) moss carpet formation; (3) fellfield formation; (4) grass and cushion chamaephyte formation; and (5) Deschampsia Antarctica–lichen formation. Characterizations and distributions of the plant communities are presented on a map at a scale of 1:5000. The plant communities found at Hennequin Point, in general, differ from those found in other areas of the Admiralty Bay region, probably because of the concentration of skua nests in the area and the relief singularities. We conclude by highlighting the importance of the study of plant species found in the ice-free areas of the Antarctic with respect to environmental monitoring and for evaluating global climate and environmental changes. Keywords: Plant communities mapping; lichens; mosses; flowering plants; Antarctic

Circulation and exchange processes at high-latitude ocean margins are investigated in this thesis, by using analytical models, numerical simulations and hydrographic data. In the Northern Hemisphere, the establishment of Atlantic Water transport as a topographically steered slope current has been investigated. A simplified analytical model based on geostrophic balance predicts that buoyancy loss over a sloping boundary leads to a cross-slope baroclinic flow transformed into an along-slope barotropic flow. And the resulting transport changes can be estimated from hydrographic data. Over the continental slope off Scotland, the diagnosed transport changes in the barotropic flow is in agreement with the observed transport changes. The results emphasize that geostrophy can be used to diagnose topographically steered barotropic flow, which makes it especially useful for high latitudes where topographic steering of ocean circulation is strong. In the Eastern Weddell Sea in the Atlantic Sector of Antarctica, the processes controlling the exchanges of water masses over the continental slope have been studied, by taking advantage of over 11,000 hydrographic profiles collected by instrumented seals in this region from February to November 2008. The proposed mechanism, that the wind-driven downwelling is responsible for the accumulation of Antarctic Surface Water near the ice front and its further spreading beneath the ice shelf along the coast of Eastern Weddell Sea, is revisited by a combination of detailed analysis of the data collected by the seals, an analytical model and numerical simulations. The results show that the Antarctic Surface Water enters the ice shelf cavity after being brought on-shore by wind-driven surface Ekman transport, and being spread below the depth of the ice base within a regime of coastal downwelling. The results also suggest a complex picture of water mass exchange processes along the coast of Eastern Weddell Sea, in which mesoscale eddies play a central role. Finally, the data collected by the seals are employed to evaluate the performance of a global coupled ocean-ice model incorporated with a parametrization of wave-induced mixing in simulating the upper ocean properties in the Southern Ocean. The results suggest that wave-induced mixing is important to modify the upper ocean properties. Since coastal water properties in the Eastern Weddell Sea are mainly determined by the onshore Ekman transport of surface waters, the wave-induced mixing also plays a role in preconditioning the coastal water masses in this region. I dette arbeidet er sirkulasjon og blandingsmekanismer i havområder på høge breddegrader undersøkt ved bruk av analytiske modeller, numeriske simuleringer og havobservasjoner. På den nordlige halvkulen er det undersøkt hvordan transport av Atlanterhavsvann etablerer seg som en topografisk styrt strøm langs kontinentalsokkelskråningen. En forenklet analytisk modell basert på geostrofisk balanse kan forklare hvordan varmetap i vannet som strømmer langs en skrånende bunn fører til en baroklin strøm på tvers av skråningen som igjen blir transformert til en barotrop strøm langs den skrånende bunnen. Denne transportendringen kan man beregne fra hydrografiske data. En slik beregnet transportendring over kontinentalsokkelskråningen vest for Skotland stemmer godt overens med observert transportendring i denne regionen. Resultatene understreker at geostrofi kan bli brukt til å diagnostisere topografisk styrte strømmer, noe som gjør teorien spesielt egnet for å studere oseanografi på høge breddegrader der topografisk styring av strømmene er mest tydelig. I det østlige Weddellhavet, i den atlantiske sektoren av Antarktis, har prosessene som styrer vannmasseutvekslingen på tvers av kontinentalsokkelskråningen blitt undersøkt ved å ta i bruk mer enn 11.000 havprofiler som er blitt samlet inn av seler i denne regionen fra februar til november 2008. Selene var utsyrt med temperatur-, salt- og dybde-loggere. Den foreslåtte mekanismen at vind-drevet nedstrømning er ansvarlig for oppsamling av antarktisk overflatevann nær isbremmen og for dens videre spredning under den flytende isbremmen langs kysten av den østlige Weddellhavet, er testet ved hjelp av en kombinasjon av detaljerte dataanalyser av observasjonene som ble samlet inn av selene, en analytisk modell og numeriske simuleringer. Resultatene viser at det antarktiske overflatevannet entrer hulområdet under isbremmen etter at det er blitt fraktet mot isbremmen som Ekman-transport i overflaten. Spredningen på undersiden av den flytende isbremmen kan forklares ved hjelp av samme mekanisme som nedstrømning langs en kyst. Resultatene tyder også på at vannmasseutvekslingen langs kysten av det østlige Weddellhavet er sammensatt av flere prosesser der virvler av mesoskala størrelse spiller en sentral rolle. Til slutt er dataene som ble samlet inn av selene blitt brukt til å evaluere en global hav-is-modell som har innebygget en parameterisering av bølgedrevet blanding i Sørhavet. Resultatene indikerer at bølgedrevet blanding er viktig for å modifisere hva de øvre vannmassene i Sørhavet er sammensatt av. Siden sammensetningen i kystvann i det østlige Weddellhavet er hovedsakelig bestemt av Ekmantransport inn mot kysten, vil bølgedrevet blanding også spille en rolle når det gjelder å danne kystvannmassene i denne regionen.

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.

Lichens, symbiotic associations of fungi (mycobionts) and green algae or cyanobacteria (photobionts), are poikilohydric organisms that are particularly well adapted to withstand adverse environmental conditions. Terrestrial ecosystems of the Antarctic are therefore largely dominated by lichens. The effects of global climate change are especially pronounced in the maritime Antarctic and it may be assumed that the lichen vegetation will profoundly change in the future. The genetic diversity of populations is closely correlated to their ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions and to their future evolutionary potential. In this study, we present evidence for low genetic diversity in Antarctic mycobiont and photobiont populations of the widespread lichen Cetraria aculeata. We compared between 110 and 219 DNA sequences from each of three gene loci for each symbiont. A total of 222 individuals from three Antarctic and nine antiboreal, temperate and Arctic populations were investigated. The mycobiont diversity is highest in Arctic populations, while the photobionts are most diverse in temperate regions. Photobiont diversity decreases significantly towards the Antarctic but less markedly towards the Arctic, indicating that ecological factors play a minor role in determining the diversity of Antarctic photobiont populations. Richness estimators calculated for the four geographical regions suggest that the low genetic diversity of Antarctic populations is not a sampling artefact. Cetraria aculeata appears to have diversified in the Arctic and subsequently expanded its range into the Southern Hemisphere. The reduced genetic diversity in the Antarctic is most likely due to founder effects during long-distance colonization. The environmental conditions of the Antarctic are among the most adverse on Earth and are generally characterized by low mean annual temperatures, high wind velocities, extreme drought and extended periods of darkness. The effects of global climate change are especially pronounced in parts of the Antarctic (Turner et al. 2005). Air temperature in the maritime Antarctic has steadily increased within the last years (Smith & Stammerjohn 1996; Turner et al. 2005). On the western Antarctic Peninsula a temperature increase of more than 2.5 K has been observed over the last 50 years. The overall effect of such a temperature increase on terrestrial Antarctic organisms could be beneficial. For example, glacial melting will increase the availability of terrestrial (page number not for citation purpose). Keywords Genetic diversity; lichens; Cetraria aculeata; Trebouxia jamesii; polar lichens; global change.