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The future development of stratospheric ozone layer depends on the concentration of chlorine and bromine containing species. The stratosphere is also expected to be affected by future enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. These result in a cooling of the winter polar stratosphere and to more stable polar vortices which leads to enhanced chemical depletion and reduced transport of ozone into high latitudes. One of the driving forces behind the interest in stratospheric ozone is the impact of ozone on solar UV-B radiation. In this study UV scenarios have been constructed based on ozone predictions from the chemistry-climate model runs carried out by GISS, UKMO and DLR. Since cloudiness, albedo and terrain height are also important factors, climatological values of these quantities are taken into account in the UV calculations. Relative to 1979–92 conditions, for the 2010–2020 time period the GISS model results indicate a springtime enhancement of erythemal UV doses of up to 90% in the 60–90 °N region and an enhancement of 100% in the 60–90 °S region. The corresponding maximum increases in the annual Northern Hemispheric UV doses are estimated to be 14% in 2010–20, and 2% in 2040–50. In the Southern Hemisphere 40% enhancement is expected during 2010–20 and 27% during 2040–50.

Ice samples from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, were analyzed for 14CO2 and 14CO by accelerator mass spectrometry. Only a small amount (∼2%) of in situ produced radiocarbon was detected. The calibrated radiocarbon ages, corrected for in situ produced 14C, are in fair agreement with age estimates obtained from stratigraphical methods added to a gas inclusion model. The ages of the entrapped air range from recent to ca. 1200 AD.

Q1, an organochlorine component with the molecular formula C(9)H(3)Cl(7)N(2) and of unknown origin was recently identified in seal blubber samples from the Namibian coast (southwest of Africa) and the Antarctic. In these samples, Q1 was more abundant than PCBs and on the level of DDT residues. Furthermore, Q1 was more abundant in seals from the Antarctic than the Arctic. To prove this assumption, gas chromatography-electron-capture negative ion mass spectrometry (GC/ECNI-MS), which is sensitive and selective for Q1, allowed for screening of traces of Q1 even in samples with particularly high levels of other organochlorine contaminants. Q1 was isolated by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) from a skua liver sample. A 1:1 mixture with trans-nonachlor in electron-capture detectors (ECDs) was used to determine the relative response factor with ECNI-MS. The ECNI-MS response of Q1 turned out to be 4.5 times higher than that of trans-nonachlor in an ECD. With GC/ECNI-MS in the selected ion-monitoring mode, four Antarctic and four Arctic air samples were investigated for the presence of Q1. In the Antarctic air samples, Q1 levels ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 fg/m(3). In Arctic air samples, however, Q1 was below the detection limit (<0.06 fg/m(3) or 60 ag/m(3)). We also report on high Q1 levels in selected human milk samples (12-230 microg/kg lipid) and, therefore, suggested that the unknown Q1 is an environmental compound whose origin and distribution should be investigated in detail. Our data confirm that Q1 is a bioaccumulative natural organochlorine product. Detection of a highly chlorinated natural organochlorine compound in air and human milk is novel.

This article focuses on three emerging law of the sea issues for states cooperating in management of the Antarctic and its maritime area. The first of these is no newcomer: How to regulate the dramatic increase in illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing of Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in the Southern Ocean? The second question, according to the letter of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, awaits the countries claiming sovereignty over portions of territory in the Antarctic 10 years from the entry into force of the Convention for each of them. The question here is what to do with the requirement contained in that Convention relating to the submission of information on the outer limit of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles to the Commission on the Continental Shelf? Finally, there is a third tricky question: Who is competent to regulate, and accordingly to ban, mineral activities in the Southern Ocean seabed? Is it the International Seabed Authority as the global body, or the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties through their regional cooperation? This question may well never be put on the policy agenda for any global forum; but it may well be posed at any time and by any third party, whether in the UN General Assembly or, more likely, in the Assembly of the International Seabed Authority.

Abstract Commercial sealing in the 18th and 19th centuries had a major impact on the Antarctic and subantarctic fur seal populations (Arctocephalus gazella and A. tropicalis) in the Southern Ocean. The intensive and unrestricted nature of the industry ensured substantial reductions in population sizes and resulted in both species becoming locally extinct at some sites. However, both species are continuing to recover, through the recolonization of islands across their former range and increasing population size. This study investigated the extent and pattern of genetic variation in each species to examine the hypothesis that higher levels of historic sealing in A. gazella have resulted in a greater loss of genetic variability and population structure compared with A. tropicalis. A 316-bp section of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced and revealed nucleotide diversities of 3.2% and 4.8% for A. gazella and A. tropicalis, respectively. There was no geographical distribution of lineages observed within either species, although the respective ΦST values of 0.074 and 0.19 were significantly greater than zero. These data indicate low levels of population structure in A. gazella and relatively high levels in A. tropicalis. Additional samples screened with restriction endonucleases were incorporated, and the distribution of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and sequence haplotypes were examined to identify the main source populations of newly recolonized islands. For A. tropicalis, the data suggest that Macquarie Island and Iles Crozet were probably recolonized by females from Marion Island, and to a lesser extent Ile Amsterdam. Although there was less population structure within A. gazella, there were two geographical regions identified: a western region containing the populations of South Georgia and Bouvet?ya, which were the probable sources for populations at Marion, the South Shetland and Heard Islands; and an eastern region containing the panmictic populations of Iles Kerguelen and Macquarie Island. The latter region may be a result of a pronounced founder effect, or represent a remnant population that survived sealing at Iles Kerguelen.

A number of campaigns have been conducted in order to study Polar Mesosphere Summer Echos (PMSE) and Noctilucent Clouds (NLC) in the period 1991–1994. Several sounding rockets have been launched through these layers with measurements being performed on upleg as well as downleg. These include measurements of positive ions and electrons in both ram and wake positions, as well as measurements of charged aerosols in ram on upleg. In this paper we will review these measurements and make a preliminary classification of the data based upon the presence of PMSE and/or NLC. One of the mechanisms responsible for PMSE is the presence of neutral air turbulence in combination with a high Schmidt number. We will briefly discuss this type of echo using in situ rocket data. Differences and similarities of PMSE and NLC as observed both in the Arctic and the Antarctic will be discussed. Observations show that especially PMSE are much more frequent in the Arctic. This may be due to a difference in the water vapour content or the temperature at mesopause heights. Lack of data in the Antarctic makes it difficult to decide which of these two factors are the most important. More measurements, especially co-ordinated in situ and ground-based lidar and radar measurements, are needed to discuss the Arctic and Antarctic similarities and differences in further detail.

During the austral summer of 1996/1997 we studied south polar skuas at Svarthamaren, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, where the world's largest known colony of Antarctic petrels is found. Our censuses suggested approximately 250 full-grown skuas and 140,000 breeding pairs of petrels were present. During their breeding season, skuas did not visit the open sea at least 200 km from the site; they relied entirely on prey caught and scavenged from the petrel colony. Because the site is so isolated, we asked whether the prey (petrels) had swamped the predators (skuas), or whether there was evidence that predator numbers were limited by the size of the prey population. Particularly at the end of the petrel incubation period, we found a close correspondence between the energy required by adult skuas and their chicks, ascertained from time budget studies, and the rate at which petrel eggs disappeared from the colony. This suggests that, in this closed system, the predator population was limited by the prey population, and that predator swamping was not an advantage that petrels gained by nesting in this remote location.

In the region of the Schirmacheroase (71 °S, 12°E) various geodetic and glaciological research activities have been carried out in the last decade. Several times three geodetic-glaciological traverses were undertaken to study ice velocity, accumulation and ablation, and ice surface height changes. Repeated ground surveys show a significant decrease in surface heights by about 15 cm/y for a large blue-ice area. This paper presents the first interferometrically derived ice velocity field of the inland ice close to the Schirmacheroase. The interferometric analysis of the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is performed in combination with ground-based information. Since only ERS-1&2 tandem mission image couples are available for this region a digital elevation model (DEM) is used to remove the effect of topography. Ice velocities up to 100 m/y are proved interferometrically for this part of the inland ice.

Zooplankton samples were collected in January 1993 off Dronning Maud Land along a transect from open waters to the marginal ice zone close to the Antarctic ice shelf. Thysanoessa macrura was caught in open waters while Calanoides acutus and Calanus propinquus were mainly sampled between ice floes in the marginal ice zone. The “ice-krill”Euphausia crystallorophias was found over the shelf directly associated with ice floes. T. macrura had a lipid content up to 36% of its dry weight with the dominant lipid class, wax ester, accounting for 45–50% of the total lipid. The predominance of 18:1 fatty alcohols is the striking characteristic of the wax esters. Small specimens of E. crystallorophias had lipid levels up to 26% of their dry weight with, unexpectedly, triacylglycerols being the dominant lipid (up to 41% of total lipid). The small levels of wax esters in these animals (3–6% of total lipid) had phytol as a major constituent. Large specimens of E. crystallorophias had up to 34% of their dry weight as lipid, with wax esters (47% of total lipid) dominated by 16:0 and 14:0 fatty alcohols as the major lipid. Calanus propinquus had lipid levels of up to 34% of their dry weight, with triacylglycerols (up to 63% of total lipid) being the dominant lipid. High levels of 22:1 (n-9) fatty acid were present in the triacylglycerols. Calanoides acutus had lipid levels up to 35% of the dry weight with wax esters accounting for up to 83% of total lipid. High levels of (n-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids were recorded with 20:5(n-3), 22:6(n-3) and 18:4(n-3) being the dominant moieties. On the basis of their lipid compositions we deduce that: (1) Calanoides acutus is the strictest herbivore among the four species studied, heavily utilizing the typical spring bloom; (2) T. macrura is essentially omnivorous, probably utilizing the less defined bloom situations found in oceanic waters; (3) E. crystallorophias is an omnivore well adapted to utilize both a bloom situation and to feed on ice algae and micro-zooplankton associated with the ice; (4) Calanus propinquus seems to be the most opportunistic feeder of the four species studied, probably grazing heavily on phytoplankton during a bloom and, during the rest of the year, feeding on whatever material is available, including particulates, flagellates and other ice-associated algae. We conclude that the different biochemical pathways generating large oil reserves of different compositions, enabling species to utilize different ecological niches, are major determinants of biodiversity in polar zooplankton.

For ease in discerning an Antarctic circumpolar wave in the perimeter of the ice pack, we construct a time series of the sea ice extents (essentially the area within the ice perimeter) in 1-degree longitudinal sectors for the period 1978-1996, as observed with the multichannel microwave imagers on board the NASA Nimbus 7 and the DOD (Dept. of Defense) DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) F8, F11, and F13 satellites. After converting the time series into complex numbers by means of a Hilbert transform, we decompose the time series of the 360 sectors into its complex principal components (CPCs), effectively separating the spatial and temporal values. Then we decompose the real and imaginary parts of the temporal portions of the first three CPCs (complex principal compenents) by Empirical Mode Decomposition into their intrinsic modes, each representing a narrow frequency band, resulting in a collection of three CPCs for each intrinsic mode. Finally, we reconstruct the data in two different ways. First, we low-pass filter the data by combining all of the intrinsic modes of each CPC with periods longer than two years, which we designate as lowpass filtered. Next, we select the intrinsic mode of each CPC with periods of approximately four years, which we designate the quasiquadrennial (QQ) modes. The low-pass filtered time series shows eastward propagating azimuthal motion in the Ross and Weddell Seas, but no clearly circumpolar motion. The QQ time series, on the other hand, clearly shows eastward propagating circumpolar waves, but with occasional retrograde motion to the west.

Ice at or below the surface of the planet Earth is an important part of the climate system. The solid phase of water has two unique characteristics which make it both an early indicator of climate change and a global player. First, if warmed to the melting point at 0°C, higher air temperatures and/or higher long-wave back radiation just increase the melting rate but not - as with all other surfaces- the temperature, which stays at 0°C. Small icecaps and mountain glaciers thus become early indicators of a changed climate. Second. If seawater is cooled to the freezing point at about- 1.8"C. the sea ice formation process ejects salt causing the denser water to sink, thereby filling the global ocean interior with very cold water. The location where most of this deep convection occurs is strongly dependent on the freshwater balance and thus on the average salinity of ocean basins. Present ocean configuration and ocean topography, as well as precipitation distribution, make the northern North Atlantic more saline than any other high latitude ocean part and thus the site with most of this deep water formation. Sea ice formation is therefore of high significance for the European climate. Since it drives the near surface warm North Atlantic current northward off the European coast in compensation for southward deep water flow in the western Atlantic, northwestern Europe is warmer by about 4°C than the same latitudes on the eastern Pacific coast of America.

As part of the pre-site survey in Dronning Maud Land for the European Project for Ice Goring in Antarctica (EPICA), the spatial variability of snow-layer thickness and snow chemistry was studied at two geographically different ice-core drill sites. The study aimed to quantify error bars on accumulation rates derived from firn and ice cores. One site is located on the polar plateau at Amundsenisen (76° S, 8° W) and the other in the coastal area at Maudheimvidda (73° S, 13° W). Medium-deep ice cores (100 m) and shallow firn cores (10-20 m) were drilled and snow pits (0.5-2 5 m) were dug at each site. At Amundsenisen a large (16 m x 6 m x 2.5 m deep) snow pit was dug. Snow structure in this large snow pit was mapped using optical surveying equipment, and photographically documented. Samples for analysis of nine ions and oxygen isotopes were collected along one depth profile. Density and in situ electrical conductivity measurements were made along three depth profiles! Snow-layer variability was studied in two different areas and at two different scales. At a regional scale, measured by snow-radar soundings, the variability was 8% on the polar plateau and 45% in the coastal area. The variability at a micro-scale in the large snow pit was 9%. The results indicate that ice cores from the polar plateau are more representative for a larger area than ice cores drilled in the coastal area There is no doubt that there are significant error bars on high-resolution accumulation data received from firn and ice cores, especially from the coastal area, but averaging over tens of years reduces the error in accumulation estimates.

This paper discusses predicted evolution patterns of present-day changes of ice thickness, surface elevation, and bedrock elevation over the Greenland and Antarctic continents. These were obtained from calculations with dynamic 3-D ice sheet models which were coupled to a visco-elastic solid Earth model. The experiments were initialized over the last two glacial cycles and subsequently averaged over the last 200 years to obtain the current evolution. The calculations indicate that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is still adjusting to the last glacial-interglacial transition yielding a decreasing ice volume and a rising bedrock elevation of the order of several centimetres per year. The Greenland Ice Sheet was found to be close to a stationary state with a mean thickness change of only a few millimetres per year, but the calculations revealed large spatial differences. Predicted patterns over Greenland are characterized by a small thickening over the ice sheet interior and a general thinning of the ablation area. In Antarctica, almost all of the predicted changes are concentrated in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is still retreating at both the Weddell and Ross Sea margins. Over most of both ice sheets, the model indicates that the surface elevation trend is dominated by ice thickness changes rather than by bedrock elevation changes.

The Holocene glacial and climatic development in Antarctica differed considerably from that in the Northern Hemisphere. Initial deglaciation of inner shelf and adjacent land areas in Antarctica dates back to between 10-8 Kya, when most Northern Hemisphere ice sheets had already disappeared or diminished considerably. The continued deglaciation of currently ice-free land in Antarctica occurred gradually between ca. 8-5 Kya. A large southern portion of the marine-based Ross Ice Sheet disintegrated during this late deglaciation phase. Some currently ice-free areas were deglaciated as late as 3 Kya. Between 8-5 Kya, global glacio-eustatically driven sea level rose by 10-17m, with 4-8 m of this increase occurring after 7 Kya. Since the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets had practically disappeared by 8-7 Kya, we suggest that Antarctic deglaciation caused a considerable part of the global sea level rise between 8-7 Kya, and most of it between 7-5 Kya. The global mid-Holocene sea level high stand, broadly dated to between 8-4 Kya, and the Littorina-Tapes transgressions in Scandinavia and simultaneous transgressions recorded from sites e.g. in Svalbard and Greenland, dated to 7-5 Kya, probably reflect input of meltwater from the Antarctic deglaciation.

During 1996-97 a European Project for Ice Goring in Antarctica (EPIGA) pre-site surveying traverse worked in the area between 70° S, 5° E and 75° S, 15° E in Dronning Maud Land. We present data obtained from 10 and 20 m deep firn cores drilled between the coast and 600 km inland (to 3450 m a.s.l.). The cores were analyzed for electrical conductivity measurements and total β activity to obtain accumulation data between known time horizons. In addition, some of the cores were analyzed for oxygen isotopes. Annual accumulation varies from 271 mm we. at Fimbulisen to 24 mm we at 2840 m a.s.l. Accumulation at core sites 2400-3000 m a.s.l. has increased by 16-48% since 1965 compared to the 1955-65 period. However, the core sites above 3250 m a.s.l. and one core location on the ice shelf show a decrease during the same period. Furthermore, no change can be detected at the most inland site for the period 1815-1996. In all the cores the last few years seem to have been some of the warmest in these records.

In the near coastal regions of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, below-surface ice-melt in blue-ice areas has been observed. The low scattering coefficients of the large-grained blue-ice allow penetration of solar radiation, thus providing an energy source below the ice surface. The sub-surface meltwater is significant enough to show up on remote-sensing imagery in the form of ice-covered lakes. Adjacent snow-accumulation areas have much higher scattering coefficients and consequently limit solar radiation penetration in these regions. These snow and ice surfaces are generally below freezing, and little surface melting occurs. To assess the response of these melt features to changes in atmospheric forcings such as cloudiness, air temperature, and snow accumulation, a physically-based model of the coupled atmosphere, radiation, snow, and blue-ice system has been developed. The model consists of a heat transfer equation with a spectrally-dependent solar-radiation source term. The penetration of radiation into the snow and blue-ice depends on the surface albedo, and the snow and blue-ice grain size and density. Model simulations show that ice melt occurring in this area is sensitive to potential variations in atmospheric forcing. Under certain conditions more traditional surface melting occurs and, under other conditions, the existing melt processes can be shut down completely. In light of the sensitivity of this system to variations in atmospheric forcing, and the ability to view melt-related features using remote sensing, a tool exists to efficiently monitor variations in Antarctic coastal climate.

In the Jutulgryta area of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, subsurface melting of the ice sheet has been observed. The melting takes place during the summer months in blue-ice areas under conditions of below-freezing air and surface temperatures. Adjacent snow-covered regions, having the same meteorological and climatic conditions, experience little or no subsurface melting. To help explain and understand the observed melt-rate differences in the blue-ice and snow-covered areas, a physically based numerical model of the coupled atmosphere, radiation, snow and blue-ice system has been developed. The model comprises a heat-transfer equation which includes a spectrally dependent solar-radiation source term. The penetration of radiation into the snow and blue ice depends on the solar-radiation spectrum, the surface albedo and the snow and blue-ice grain-sizes and densities. In addition, the model uses a complete surface energy balance to define the surface boundary conditions. It is run over the full annual cycle, simulating temperature profiles and melting and freezing quantities throughout the summer and winter seasons. The model is driven and validated using field observations collected during the Norwegian Antarctic Research Expedition (NARE) 1996–97. The simulations suggest that the observed differences between subsurface snow and blue-ice melting can be explained largely by radiative and heat-transfer interactions resulting from differences in albedo, grain-size and density between the two mediums.

With the recognition that global climate change may adversely affect human health, there has been an increase in relevant research worldwide. In the Antarctic medical research has been largely directed at the potential health effects of stratospheric ozone depletion. For over a decade continuous broad-band measurements of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) have been made at all Australian stations. Results of UV measurements are presented and comparisons made with the “ozone hole” moving over the stations, erythemal UVR increasing by a factor of more than 2.5 over a three day period. During late spring and despite the large difference in latitude, Davis, Antarctica, and Melbourne, Australia, are very similar in erythemal UVR. Antarctic immunological and photo biological research is presented and the role of UVR discussed. Epidemiological data is reviewed for short-term links between UVR and related disease. With increased awareness of the dangers of UVR and consequent changes in sun-related behavior, the incidence of the acute effects of UVR is much lower than decades ago. As the itinerant Antarctic population spends a maximum of 12-18 months at a time in that location it is an excellent control group for studies on the health effects of UVR on permanent populations at similar latitudes in the Arctic.