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We studied the influence of the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) on near-surface temperatures in Antarctica, using observations of 27 stations that were operational during (part of) the period 1957–79. For the annual cycle of surface pressure, the second harmonic explains 17–36% of the total variance on the Antarctic Plateau, 36–68% along the East Antarctic coast and almost 80% on the west coast of the Peninsula, and decreases further to the north. As a result of the amplification of the wave-3 structure of the circulation around Antarctica, a significant modification of the seasonal cooling is observed at many stations. The magnitude of this modification is largely determined by the strength of the temperature inversion at the surface: the percentage of the variance explained by the second harmonic of the annual temperature cycle is then largest on the Antarctic Plateau (11–18%), followed by the large ice shelves and coastal East Antarctica (6–12%) and stations at or close to the Peninsula (0–5%). A significant coupling between the half-yearly wave in surface pressure and that in surface temperature is found for coastal East Antarctica, which can be directly explained by the changes in meridional circulation brought about by the SAO. We show that the coupling of Antarctic temperatures to the meridional circulation is not only valid on the seasonal time scale of the SAO, but probably also on daily and interannual time scales. This has important implications for the interpretation of time series of Antarctic temperatures, a problem that will be addressed in part 2 of this paper.

Following a weakening of the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) since the mid-1970s, the half-yearly pressure wave in the Southern Hemisphere has become less significant. As a result, May/June temperatures have decreased in East Antarctica, which has moderated Antarctic warming. Spectral analysis of 87 years of pressure data at Orcadas suggest that the recent weakening of the SAO is part of the natural variability of the Southern Hemisphere circulation on decadal timescales. We interpret the time series of composite Antarctic temperature in terms of the historical strengthening and weakening of the SAO. If the dominant oscillations that occurred in the past prove to be persistent, an accelerated East Antarctic warming trend is expected for the coming decades. There are indications that the strength of the SAO is linked to the Southern Oscillation, in the sense that warm phases of the Southern Oscillation coincide with strong westerlies, a weakly developed SAO and below-average temperatures in East Antarctica. Temperatures on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show strongly deviant patterns, which can not be explained by the same mechanism that applies to East Antarctica.

Comparisons of total column ozone measurements from Dobson, Brewer and SAOZ instruments are presented for the period 1990 to 1995 at seven stations covering the mid- and the high northern latitudes, as well as the Antarctic region. The main purpose of these comparisons is to assess, by reference to the well established Dobson network, the accuracy of the zenith-sky visible spectroscopy for the measurement of total ozone. The strengths and present limitations of this latter technique are investigated. As a general result, the different instruments are found to agree within a few percent at all stations, the best agreement being obtained at mid-latitudes. On average, for the mid-latitudes, SAOZ O3 measurements are approximately 2% higher than Dobson ones, with a scatter of about 5%. At higher latitudes, both scatter and systematic deviation tend to increase. In all cases, the relative differences between SAOZ and Dobson or Brewer column ozone are characterised by a significant seasonal signal, the amplitude of which increases from about 2.5% at mid-latitude to a maximum of 7.5% at Faraday, Antarctica. Although it introduces a significant contribution to the seasonality at high latitude, the temperature sensitivity of the O3 absorption coefficients of the Dobson and Brewer instruments is shown to be too small to account for the observed SAOZ/Dobson differences. Except for Faraday, these differences can however be largely reduced if SAOZ AMFs are calculated with realistic climatological profiles of ozone, pressure and temperature. Other sources of uncertainties that might affect the comparison are investigated. Evidence is found that the differences in the air masses sampled by the SAOZ and the other instruments contribute significantly to the scatter, and the impact of the tropospheric clouds on SAOZ measurements is displayed.

The most consistent means of investigating the global sea ice cover is by satellite passive microwave sensors, as these are independent of illumination and cloud cover. The Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) provide information on the global sea ice cover from 1978 to present. The two instruments flew simultaneously during a 6-week overlap period in July and August 1987, thus enabling intercomparison of the two sensors. Brightness temperatures are corrected for instrument drift and calibration differences in order to produce continuous time series of monthly averaged Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area through the use of the NOrwegian Remote Sensing EXperiment (NORSEX) algorithm, which relates brightness temperatures to ice concentration. Statistical analysis on the time series estimates the decreases in Arctic ice extent and ice area to be 4.5% and 5.7%, respectively, during the 16.8-year observation period. The overall trends established here serve to better define and strengthen earlier assertions of a reduced ice cover, based on analysis of SMMR and SSMI data taken separately. These results are consistent with GCM simulations that suggest retreat of the sea ice cover under global warming scenarios.

Many invertebrates show flexibility in their life cycles and are likely to respond to changes in climate as they have in the past. However, changes in temperature and photoperiod may disturb the life cycles of some existing polar invertebrates while continuing to constrain the polewards migration of more temperate species. Higher plants are likely to have higher productivity as temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels increase but this productivity will be reduced by exposure to increasing UV-B radiation. Higher plants migrate more slowly than the rate at which climate is predicted to change and many species will be trapped in supra-optimal climates. Both mosses and lichens can migrate faster than higher plants, propagules of non-polar species already reaching the Antarctic, but they have fewer mechanisms of responding to changing environments. Polar vegetation and ecosystems provide feedback to the climate system: positive feedbacks are associated with decreases in reflectivity and increased carbon emissions from warm ing soils. In the Antarctic, feedback and responses to environmental change will be smaller than in the Arctic because of the less responsive cryptogams which dominate the Antarctic, the paucity of Antarctic soils, and geographical barriers to plant and invertebrate migrations.