Search

We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process-oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model's ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model's circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is a crucial component of the global ocean conveyor belt, acting as a zonal link among the major ocean basins but, to some extent, limiting meridional exchange and tending to isolate the ocean south of it from momentum and heat income. In this work we investigate one of the most important mechanisms contributing to the poleward transfer of properties in the Southern Ocean, that is the eddy component of the dynamics. For this particular purpose, observations obtained from near-surface drifters have been used: they represent a very useful data set to analyse the eddy field because of their ability to catch a large number of scales of motion while providing a quasi-synoptic coverage of the investigated area. Estimates of the eddy heat and momentum fluxes are carried out using data taken from the Global Drifter Program databank; they refer to Surface Velocity Program drifter trajectories collected in the area south of 358S between 1995 and 2006. Eddy kinetic energies, variance ellipses, momentum and heat fluxes have been calculated using the pseudo-Eulerian method, showing patterns in good agreement with those present in the literature based on observational and model data, although there are some quantitative differences. The eddy fluxes have been separated into their rotational and divergent portions, the latter being responsible for the meridional transports. The associated zonal and depth-exponentially integrated meridional heat transport exhibits values spanning over a range between -0.4 PW and -1.1 PW in the ACC region, consistent with previous estimates. Keywords: Antarctic Circumpolar Current; eddy fluxes; Global Drifter Program data; Lagrangian oceanography; Helmholtz decomposition.

The colonization capacity and demographic structure of populations of Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis were studied in different microhabitats between 10 and 147 m a.s.l. on Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, near the Spanish Antarctic base Juan Carlos I, in February 2002. At the highest site (147 m a.s.l.), mean temperatures were about 1 ºC lower than at sea level. Both species are less common in inland areas and at the highest altitudes only occur at restricted sites that are frequently snow-free in the early austral summer. The diameters of the largest plants (C. quitensis cushions 7-8 cm ; D. antarctica tufts 10-11 cm) in the populations growing at the highest altitudes (110 and 147 m a.s.l.) suggest that these populations were established about 24-28 years ago. The largest diameter plants (Deschampsia 20 cm; Colobanthus 18 cm) were found at the lowest altitudes on deep soil. The presence of numerous seedlings and young individuals on the periphery of populations established several years ago or at recently colonized sites suggests an active process of expansion. There were more emerged seedlings of C. quitensis than of D. antarctica, but the density of established individuals was higher for D. antarctica, suggesting these species have different demographic strategies. Keywords: Antarctic vascular plants; altitude and habitat effect; colonization; population structure.

We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH3CF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF3CHFCF3, 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF3CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only ∼1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10−12) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to ∼0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr−1 at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in ∼2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr−1, HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr−1), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (∼2005–2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr−1 and 0.18 kt yr−1 over the 2008–2010 period, respectively.

The horizontal wind data from the standard version of Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS) for the years 2006–2008 are analyzed to obtain the global structure and seasonal variability of the semidiurnal tide (SDT) in the mesosphere. The modeled amplitudes and phases of the SDTs at single stations from middle/high northern latitudes are quite similar to those observed by radars. The primary nonmigrating tides identified in both the meridional wind and zonal wind semidiurnal spectra at 88 km include the westward propagating wave numbers s = 1 (SW1), 3 (SW3), 4 (SW4), 6 (SW6), the standing s = 0 (S0), and the eastward propagating s = 2 (SE2). The migrating SDT (SW2) amplitude maxima usually occur at 40°N–60°N during December–February and August–September, and also at 40°S–60°S in April–May, with the dominance of (2, 4) during October–April and (2, 3) and (2, 5) dominance for other months. The CMAM-DAS is quite successful in reproducing the dominance of SW1 in the Antarctic summer mesosphere. The modeled SW1 shows very good overall agreement in both amplitude and phase with wind measurements from UARS High Resolution Doppler Imager and Wind Imaging Interferometer (UARS-HRDI/WINDII) and from TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI). The CMAM-DAS analyses for SW3, SW4, SW6, and S0 are also in reasonable agreement with those determined from the HRDI/WINDII or TIDI wind measurements. This work provides further evidence for the tidal forcing from below.

The latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Southern Ocean from six different data sets are inter-compared for the period 1988- 2000. The six data sets include three satellite-based products, namely, the second version of the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes data set (GSSTF-2), the third version of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS-3) and the Japanese Ocean Fluxes Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO); two global reanalysis products, namely, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 data set (NCEP-2) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis data set (ERA-40); and the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes for the Global Oceans data set (OAFlux). All these products reveal a similar pattern in the averaged flux fields. The zonal mean LHF fields all exhibit a continuous increase equatorward. With an exception of HOAPS-3, the zonal mean SHF fields display a minimum value near 50°S, increasing both pole- and equatorward. The differences in the standard deviation for LHF are larger among the six data products than the differences for SHF. Over the regions where the surface fluxes are significantly influenced by the Antarctic Oscillation and the Pacific-South American teleconnection, the values and distributions of both LHF and SHF are consistent among the six products. It was found that the spatial patterns of the standard deviations and trends of LHF and SHF can be explained primarily by sea-air specific humidity and temperature differences; wind speed plays a minor role. Keywords: Latent heat flux; sensible heat flux; Southern Ocean.

This study investigates systematically the intraseasonal variability of surface air temperature over Antarctica by applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, US Department of Energy, Reanalysis 2 data set for the period of 1979 through 2007. The results reveal the existence of two major intraseasonal oscillations of surface temperature with periods of 26 - 30 days and 14 days during the Antarctic winter season in the region south of 60°S. The first EOF mode shows a nearly uniform spatial pattern in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean associated with the Antarctic Oscillation. The mode-1 intraseasonal variability of the surface temperature leads that of upper atmosphere by one day with the largest correlation at 300-hPa level geopotential heights. The intraseasonal variability of the mode-1 EOF is closely related to the variations of surface net longwave radiation the total cloud cover over Antarctica. The other major EOF modes reveal the existence of eastward propagating phases over the Southern Ocean and marginal region in Antarctica. The leading two propagating modes respond to Pacific-South American modes. Meridional winds induced by the wave train from the tropics have a direct influence on the surface air temperature over the Southern Ocean and the marginal region of the Antarctic continent. Keywords: Antarctic climate, surface air temperature, intraseasonal variability, Antarctic Oscillation.

We describe a long-range migration of a pre-moulting adult chinstrap penguin from Bouvetøya, a small relatively recently established colony, to the South Sandwich Islands, where large, established colonies of this species reside. The trip lasted around three weeks, covered ∼3600 km, and the time of arrival was consistent with the annual moult. The bird did not travel along the shortest path or along a constant bearing, but instead followed what appeared to be a series of two or three rhumb lines of constant bearing. Small southward and northward deviations from the general path were consistent with local water currents. Travel speeds were high during daylight but decreased at night, suggesting that resting or opportunistic feeding occurred preferentially at night. While long-range winter migrations of chinstraps to feeding areas in the vicinity of distant colonies have been previously described, this is the first observation of such a trip during the period between breeding and moulting, and the first record of an individual actually arriving at one of these distant colonies. This has implications for understanding population structure and management of this important Southern Ocean predator.

Weddell Sea hydrography and circulation is driven by influx of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) at its eastern margin. Entrainment and upwelling of this high-nutrient, oxygen-depleted water mass within the Weddell Gyre also supports the mesopelagic ecosystem within the gyre and the rich benthic community along the Antarctic shelf. We used Conductivity-Temperature-Depth Satellite Relay Data Loggers (CTD-SRDLs) to examine the importance of hydrographic variability, ice cover and season on the movements and diving behavior of southern elephant seals in the eastern Weddell Sea region during their overwinter feeding trips from Bouvetøya. We developed a model describing diving depth as a function of local time of day to account for diel variation in diving behavior. Seals feeding in pelagic ice-free waters during the summer months displayed clear diel variation, with daytime dives reaching 500-1500 m and night-time targeting of the subsurface temperature and salinity maxima characteristic of CDW around 150-300 meters. This pattern was especially clear in the Weddell Cold and Warm Regimes within the gyre, occurred in the ACC, but was absent at the Dronning Maud Land shelf region where seals fed benthically. Diel variation was almost absent in pelagic feeding areas covered by winter sea ice, where seals targeted deep layers around 500-700 meters. Thus, elephant seals appear to switch between feeding strategies when moving between oceanic regimes or in response to seasonal environmental conditions. While they are on the shelf, they exploit the locally-rich benthic ecosystem, while diel patterns in pelagic waters in summer are probably a response to strong vertical migration patterns within the copepod-based pelagic food web. Behavioral flexibility that permits such switching between different feeding strategies may have important consequences regarding the potential for southern elephant seals to adapt to variability or systematic changes in their environment resulting from climate change.