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De siste 20 årene har vært de varmeste siden globale temperaturmålinger startet i 1880 (Figur 1). FNs klimapanel konkluderer med at hovedårsaken til den observerte temperaturøkningen er menneskeskapte utslipp av klimagasser. I nordområdene har temperaturen økt nesten dobbelt så raskt som i resten av verden. Isdekket er nær halvert og isvolumet er redusert til en tredjedel. Men på den andre siden av jorden, altså i Antarktis, er situasjonen en helt annen. Temperaturen har vært fallende de siste årene og isdekket har vært rekordstort. Dette paradokset brukes ofte som et argument mot menneskeskapte endring av klima. For hvordan kan det ha seg at temperaturen i Antarktis faller når klimagassutslippene øker?

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

Petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites, associated with the contemporary and legacy effects of human activities, remain a serious environmental problem in the Antarctic and Arctic. The management of contaminated sites in these regions is often confounded by the logistical, environmental, legislative and financial challenges associated with operating in polar environments. In response to the need for efficient and safe methods for managing contaminated sites, several technologies have been adapted for on-site or in situ application in these regions. This article reviews six technologies which are currently being adapted or developed for the remediation of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites in the Antarctic and Arctic. Bioremediation, landfarming, biopiles, phytoremediation, electrokinetic remediation and permeable reactive barriers are reviewed and discussed with respect to their advantages, limitations and potential for the long-term management of soil and groundwater contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons in the Antarctic and Arctic. Although these technologies demonstrate potential for application in the Antarctic and Arctic, their effectiveness is dependent on site-specific factors including terrain, soil moisture and temperature, freeze–thaw processes and the indigenous microbial population. The importance of detailed site assessment prior to on-site or in situ implementation is emphasized, and it is argued that coupling of technologies represents one strategy for effective, long-term management of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites in the Antarctic and Arctic. Keywords: Petroleum hydrocarbons; remediation; Antarctica; Arctic; cold regions; contaminated site.

The interaction between the interplanetary magnetic field and the geomagnetic field sets up a large-scale circulation in the magnetosphere. This circulation is also reflected in the magnetically connected ionosphere. In this paper, we present a study of ionospheric convection based on Cluster Electron Drift Instrument (EDI) satellite measurements covering both hemispheres and obtained over a full solar cycle. The results from this study show that average flow patterns and polar cap potentials for a given orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field can be very different in the two hemispheres. In particular during southward directed interplanetary magnetic field conditions, and thus enhanced energy input from the solar wind, the measurements show that the southern polar cap has a higher cross polar cap potential. There are persistent north-south asymmetries, which cannot easily be explained by the influence of external drivers. These persistent asymmetries are primarily a result of the significant differences in the strength and configuration of the geomagnetic field between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Since the ionosphere is magnetically connected to the magnetosphere, this difference will also be reflected in the magnetosphere in the form of different feedback from the two hemispheres. Consequently, local ionospheric conditions and the geomagnetic field configuration are important for north-south asymmetries in large regions of geospace.

Magnetic perturbations on ground at high latitudes are directly associated only with the divergence-free component of the height-integrated horizontal ionospheric current, J⊥,df. Here we show how J⊥,df can be expressed as the total horizontal current J⊥ minus its curl-free component, the latter being completely determined by the global Birkeland current pattern. Thus, in regions where J⊥=0, the global Birkeland current distribution alone determines the local magnetic perturbation. We show with observations from ground and space that in the polar cap, the ground magnetic field perturbations tend to align with the Birkeland current contribution in darkness but not in sunlight. We also show that in sunlight, the magnetic perturbations are typically such that the equivalent overhead current is antiparallel to the convection, indicating that the Hall current system dominates. Thus, the ground magnetic field in the polar cap relates to different current systems in sunlight and in darkness.

The role of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on exposure-related endocrine effects has been poorly investigated in wild birds. This is the case for stress hormones including corticosterone (CORT). Some studies have suggested that environmental exposure to PCBs and altered CORT secretion might be associated. Here we investigated the relationships between blood PCB concentrations and circulating CORT levels in seven free-ranging polar seabird species occupying different trophic positions, and hence covering a wide range of PCB exposure. Blood ∑7PCB concentrations (range: 61–115,632 ng/g lw) were positively associated to baseline or stress-induced CORT levels in three species and negatively associated to stress-induced CORT levels in one species. Global analysis suggests that in males, baseline CORT levels generally increase with increasing blood ∑7PCB concentrations, whereas stress-induced CORT levels decrease when reaching high blood ∑7PCB concentrations. This study suggests that the nature of the PCB-CORT relationships may depend on the level of PCB exposure.

Seabirds often have high loads of contaminants. These contaminants have endocrine disrupting properties but their relationships with some endocrine mechanisms are still poorly investigated in free-living organisms. This is the case for the stress response which shifts energy investment away from reproduction and redirects it towards survival. In birds, this stress response is achieved through a release of corticosterone and is also accompanied by a decrease in circulating prolactin, an anterior pituitary hormone widely involved in regulating parental cares. We measured blood concentrations of some legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and mercury (Hg) and examined their relationships with the corticosterone and prolactin responses of known-age (9–46years old) incubating snow petrels (Pagodroma nivea) to a standardized capture/handling stress protocol. In this Antarctic seabird, we also investigated whether high contaminant burden correlates with a higher occurrence of egg neglect, a frequently observed behavior in snow petrels. POPs and Hg were unrelated to age. Stress-induced corticosterone concentrations were positively related to POPs in both sexes, and stress-induced prolactin concentrations were negatively related to Hg in males. Egg-neglect behavior was not related to POPs burden, but males with higher Hg concentrations were more likely to neglect their egg. This suggests that in birds, relationships between age and contaminants are complex and that even low to moderate concentrations of POPs and Hg are significantly related to hormonal secretion. In this Antarctic species, exposure to legacy POPs and Hg could make individuals more susceptible to environmental stressors such as ongoing disturbances in Polar Regions.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

Migratory routes and the areas used during winter have probably been selected to maximize fitness by providing favorable environmental conditions outside the breeding season. In polar environments, because of the extreme winter weather, most breeding species migrate to encounter better conditions in areas that can differ between and also within species. Using geolocation sensors, we found that south polar skuas Catharacta maccormicki from 2 distant populations breeding on the Antarctic continent along the Atlantic and Indian Oceans migrate northward to winter in tropical Indian Ocean and in temperate North Pacific waters, respectively. Most individuals from each population winter in different environmental conditions, with water temperatures ranging from 16 to 29°C. Nevertheless, they have very similar activity patterns, spending more than 80% of their time on the water, and their feather δ15N values suggest that they probably feed at similar trophic levels during the molt. During overwintering, the overall and constant low activity level may be partly imposed by molting constraints, but it also suggests that trophic conditions are good for skuas. The wintering areas of the species correspond to sectors of high concentrations of breeding or wintering tropical, Northern, and Southern Hemisphere seabird species that are likely to be kleptoparasitized by skuas. A certain degree of individual variation exists within each population, which induces a spatial overlap in the wintering grounds of distant breeding populations. These results have potential important consequences in terms of fitness, genetic divergence, and susceptibility to climate change and marine pollution. KEYWORDS: Catharacta maccormicki · Geolocators · Migration · Population-specific strategies · Stable isotopes.

In the ongoing discussion of the distribution of protists, whether they are globally distributed or endemic to one or both of the polar regions is the subject of heated debate. In this study, we compared next-generation sequencing data from the Arctic and the Southern oceans to reveal the extent of similarities and dissimilarities between the protist communities in the polar regions. We found a total overlap of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) between the two regions of 11.2%. On closer inspection of different taxonomic groups, the overlap ranged between 5.5% (haptophytes) and 14.5% (alveolates). Within the different groups, the proportion of OTUs occurring in both regions greatly differed between the polar regions. On the one hand, the overlap between these two regions is remarkable, given the geographical distance between them. On the other hand, one could expect a greater overlap of OTUs between these regions on account of the similar environmental conditions. The overlap suggests a connection between the polar regions for at least certain species or that the evolutionary divergence has been slow, relative to the timescales of isolation. The different proportions of common OTUs among the groups or regions may be a result of different life cycle strategies or environmental adaptations. Keywords: 18S rDNA; bipolar; next-generation sequencing; phytoplankton; polar regions; protist distribution.

Tests of biodiversity theory have been controversial partly because alternative formulations of the same theory seemingly yield different conclusions. This has been a particular challenge for neutral theory, which has dominated tests of biodiversity theory over the last decade. Neutral theory attributes differences in species abundances to chance variation in individuals’ fates, rather than differences in species traits. By identifying common features of different neutral models, we conduct a uniquely robust test of neutral theory across a global dataset of marine assemblages. Consistently, abundances vary more among species than neutral theory predicts, challenging the hypothesis that community dynamics are approximately neutral, and implicating species differences as a key driver of community structure in nature.Explaining patterns of commonness and rarity is fundamental for understanding and managing biodiversity. Consequently, a key test of biodiversity theory has been how well ecological models reproduce empirical distributions of species abundances. However, ecological models with very different assumptions can predict similar species abundance distributions, whereas models with similar assumptions may generate very different predictions. This complicates inferring processes driving community structure from model fits to data. Here, we use an approximation that captures common features of “neutral” biodiversity models—which assume ecological equivalence of species—to test whether neutrality is consistent with patterns of commonness and rarity in the marine biosphere. We do this by analyzing 1,185 species abundance distributions from 14 marine ecosystems ranging from intertidal habitats to abyssal depths, and from the tropics to polar regions. Neutrality performs substantially worse than a classical nonneutral alternative: empirical data consistently show greater heterogeneity of species abundances than expected under neutrality. Poor performance of neutral theory is driven by its consistent inability to capture the dominance of the communities’ most-abundant species. Previous tests showing poor performance of a neutral model for a particular system often have been followed by controversy about whether an alternative formulation of neutral theory could explain the data after all. However, our approach focuses on common features of neutral models, revealing discrepancies with a broad range of empirical abundance distributions. These findings highlight the need for biodiversity theory in which ecological differences among species, such as niche differences and demographic trade-offs, play a central role.

Low water availability is one of the principal stressors for terrestrial invertebrates in the polar regions, determining the survival of individuals, the success of species and the composition of communities. The Arctic and Antarctic dipterans Heleomyza borealis and Eretmoptera murphyi spend the majority of their biennial life cycles as larvae, and so are exposed to the full range of environmental conditions, including low water availability, over the annual cycle. In the current study, the desiccation resistance and desiccation tolerance of larvae were investigated, as well as their capacity for cross-tolerance to temperature stress. Larvae of H. borealis showed high levels of desiccation resistance, only losing 6.9% of their body water after 12 days at 98.2% relative humidity (RH). In contrast, larvae of E. murphyi lost 46.7% of their body water after 12 days at the same RH. Survival of E. murphyi larvae remained high in spite of this loss (>80% survival). Following exposure to 98.2% RH, larvae of E. murphyi showed enhanced survival at −18°C for 2 h. The supercooling point of larvae of both species was also lowered following prior treatment at 98.2% RH. Cross-tolerance to high temperatures (37 or 38.5°C) was not noted following desiccation in E. murphyi, and survival even fell at 37°C following a 12-day pre-treatment. The current study demonstrates two different strategies of responding to low water availability in the polar regions and indicates the potential for cross-tolerance, a capacity which is likely to be beneficial in the ever-changing polar climate. Keywords: Acclimation; dipteran; supercooling point; temperature; cross-tolerance.

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges.

The concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) in 35 soil samples collected from Fildes Peninsula in the Antarctic, Ny-Ålesund in the Arctic, and Zhangmu-Nyalam in the Tibetan Plateau were reported in this study. A comparison of the total concentration and TEQ of PCDD/Fs at the Three Poles was conducted. Both the total concentration and TEQ of PCDD/Fs demonstrates a decreasing trend in the order of Zhangmu-Nyalam (mean: 26.22 pg/g, 0.37 pg I-TEQ/g)>Ny-Ålesund (mean: 9.97 pg/g, 0.33 pg I-TEQ/g)>Fildes Peninsula (mean: 2.18 pg/g, 0.015 pg I-TEQ/g) (p<0.05). In all samples, the congener and homologue profiles dominated with higher (seven and eight) chlorinated PCDD/Fs (more than 85% of the total mass percentage of PCDD/Fs) at the Three Poles. Finally, a FLEXPART backward simulation was used to preliminarily identify the potential local and regional anthropogenic sources of PCDD/Fs. The results imply that the air masses passing over surrounding regions with significant PCDD/F emissions might contribute to the occurrence of PCDD/Fs in both the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau.

A new satellite-based passive microwave sea-ice concentration product developed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Data Record (CDR) programme is evaluated via comparison with other passive microwave-derived estimates. The new product leverages two well-established concentration algorithms, known as the NASA Team and Bootstrap, both developed at and produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The sea-ice estimates compare well with similar GSFC products while also fulfilling all NOAA CDR initial operation capability (IOC) requirements, including (1) self-describing file format, (2) ISO 19115-2 compliant collection-level metadata, (3) Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant file-level metadata, (4) grid-cell level metadata (data quality fields), (5) fully automated and reproducible processing and (6) open online access to full documentation with version control, including source code and an algorithm theoretical basic document. The primary limitations of the GSFC products are lack of metadata and use of untracked manual corrections to the output fields. Smaller differences occur from minor variations in processing methods by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (for the CDR fields) and NASA (for the GSFC fields). The CDR concentrations do have some differences from the constituent GSFC concentrations, but trends and variability are not substantially different. Keywords: Sea ice; Arctic and Antarctic oceans; climate data record; evaluation; passive microwave remote sensing.

Effective management of contaminated land requires a sound understanding of site geology, chemistry and biology. This is particularly the case for Antarctica and the Arctic, which function using different legislative frame- works to those of industrialized, temperate environments and are logistically challenging environments to operate in. This paper reviews seven remediation technologies currently used, or demonstrating potential for on-site or in situ use at metal-contaminated sites in polar environments, namely permeable reactive barriers (PRB), chemical fixation, bioremediation, phytoremediation, electrokinetic separation, land capping, and pump and treat systems. The technologies reviewed are discussed in terms of their advantages, limitations and overall potential for the management of metal-contaminated sites in Antarctica and the Arctic. This review demonstrates that several of the reviewed technologies show potential for on-site or in situ usage in Antarctica and the Arctic. Of the reviewed technologies, chemical fixation and PRB are particularly promising technologies for metal-contaminated sites in polar environments. However, further research and relevant field trials are required before these technologies can be considered proven techniques. Keywords: Polar; heavy metals; remediation; contaminants; in situ

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.

In addition to the chemical analyses providing total nutrient content, standardized water trophic status bioassays are useful in the determination of available nutrients for primary producers. The aim of the study was to determine the standardized values of algal growth potential (AGP) and algal primary productivity rate (APPR) of maritime Antarctic stream water using modified AGP/APPR protocols. The standardized values of AGP and the APPR of oligotrophic and mesotrophic water samples from snow-melt streams were measured, and possible nutrient limitation and heavy metal inhibition were evaluated at 5°C and 25°C using polar and temperate strains of Stichococcus bacillaris, respectively. The water samples were enriched for the nutrient limitation tests with 1000 mμ l-1 NO3- -N, 50 μg l-1 PO43- -P, and a mixture of 1000 μg l-1 NO3- -N + 50 μg l-1 PO43- -P, and for the heavy metal inhibition tests with 1000 mg l-1 Na2-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA). The AGP of oligotrophic samples was significantly lower than that of the mesotrophic ones at both temperatures. In addition, AGP was significantly higher at 5°C than at 25°C. Oligotrophic samples were identified as being nitrogen limited, while no nutrient limitation was observed in the mesotrophic samples. No statistically significant heavy metal inhibition was observed at either temperature. The positive correlation of AGP and water nutrient content indicates that the method used accurately and comprehensively monitors the changes in biological availability of mineral nutrients and can provide a standardized reference point for similar exploration of freshwater ecosystems across both polar regions. Keywords: Maritime Antarctic; microalgae; nutrient limitations; snow-melt stream water.