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This paper describes the significant direct and indirect contributions to science made by the Norwegian polar explorer Roald Amundsen in the period 1897–1924. It documents that his expeditions through the North-west Passage (1903–06) with Gjøa, to the South Pole (1910–12) with Fram and through the North-east Passage (1918–1920) and the Chukchi and East Siberian seas (1921–25) with Maud yielded vast amounts of published scientific material on meteorology, terrestrial magnetism, geology, palaeontology, oceanography, ethnography, zoology and botany, which, though celebrated at the time, have since received scant recognition in more recent assessments of Amundsen’s achievements. Keywords: Fridtjof Nansen; polar exploration; South Pole; North-west Passage; North-east Passage; H.U. Sverdrup.

At Dome Argus, East Antarctica, the surface mass balance (SMB) from 2008 to 2013 was evaluated using 49 stakes installed across a 30×30 km area. Spatial analysis showed that at least 12 and 20 stakes are needed to obtain reliable estimates of SMB at local scales (a few hundred square metres) and regional scales (tens of square kilometres), respectively. The estimated annual mean SMB was 22.9±5.9 kg m−2 yr−1, including a net loss by sublimation of −2.22±0.02 kg m−2 yr−1 and a mass gain by deposition of 1.37±0.01 kg m−2 yr−1. Therefore, ca. 14.3% of precipitation was modified after deposition, which should be considered when interpreting snow or ice core records produced by future drilling projects. The surface snow density and SMB in the western portion of Dome Argus are higher than in other areas, and these differences are likely related to the katabatic wind, which is strengthened by topography in this sector. A new digital elevation model (DEM) of Dome Argus was generated, confirming that both peaks of the dome can be considered as the summit of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Findings from this study should be valuable for validating SMB estimates obtained from regional climate models and DEMs established using remote-sensing data. Keywords: Snow accumulation; Kunlun Station; CHINARE; digital elevation model; deep ice core sites; East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100.

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

The main aim of this paper is to explore the potential of combining measurements from fixed- and rotary-wing remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) to complement data sets from radio soundings as well as ship and sea-ice-based instrumentation for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) profiling. This study represents a proof-of-concept of RPAS observations in the Antarctic sea-ice zone. We present first results from the RV Polarstern Antarctic winter expedition in the Weddell Sea in June–August 2013, during which three RPAS were operated to measure temperature, humidity and wind; a fixed-wing small unmanned meteorological observer (SUMO), a fixed-wing meteorological mini-aerial vehicle, and an advanced mission and operation research quadcopter. A total of 86 RPAS flights showed a strongly varying ABL structure ranging from slightly unstable temperature stratification near the surface to conditions with strong surface-based temperature inversions. The RPAS observations supplement the regular upper air soundings and standard meteorological measurements made during the campaign. The SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles agree very well and, excluding cases with strong temperature inversions, 70% of the variance in the difference between the SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles can be explained by natural, temporal, temperature fluctuations. Strong temperature inversions cause the largest differences, which are induced by SUMO’s high climb rates and slow sensor response. Under such conditions, the quadcopter, with its slower climb rate and faster sensor, is very useful in obtaining accurate temperature profiles in the lowest 100 m above the sea ice. Keywords: Remotely piloted aircraft systems; unmanned aerial vehicles; Weddell Sea; polar meteorology; Antarctic; boundary layer meteorology.

Abstract Modeling results have suggested that the circulation of the stratosphere and mesosphere in spring is strongly affected by the perturbations in heating induced by the Antarctic ozone hole. Here using both mesospheric MF radar wind observations from Rothera Antarctica (67°S, 68°W) as well as stratospheric analysis data, we present observational evidence that the stratospheric and mesospheric wind strengths are highly anti-correlated, and show their largest variability in November. We find that these changes are related to the total amount of ozone loss that occurs during the Antarctic spring ozone hole and particularly with the ozone gradients that develop between 57.5°S and 77.5°S. The results show that with increasing ozone loss during spring, winter conditions in the stratosphere and mesosphere persist longer into the summer. These results are discussed in the light of observations of the onset and duration of the Antarctic polar mesospheric cloud season.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

We report in situ atmospheric measurements of hydrofluorocarbon HFC-43-10mee (C5H2F10; 1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,5,5-decafluoropentane) from seven observatories at various latitudes, together with measurements of archived air samples and recent Antarctic flask air samples. The global mean tropospheric abundance was 0.21 ± 0.05 ppt (parts per trillion, dry air mole fraction) in 2012, rising from 0.04 ± 0.03 ppt in 2000. We combine the measurements with a model and an inverse method to estimate rising global emissions—from 0.43 ± 0.34 Gg yr−1 in 2000 to 1.13 ± 0.31 Gg yr−1 in 2012 (~1.9 Tg CO2-eq yr−1 based on a 100 year global warming potential of 1660). HFC-43-10mee—a cleaning solvent used in the electronics industry—is currently a minor contributor to global radiative forcing relative to total HFCs; however, our calculated emissions highlight a significant difference from the available reported figures and projected estimates.

Nearly three decades of stable isotope ratios and surface mass balance (SMB) data from eight shallow firn cores retrieved at Fimbul Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, in the Austral summers 2009–2011 have been investigated. An additional longer core drilled in 2000/2001 extends the series back to the early eighteenth century. Isotope ratios and SMB from the stacked record of all cores were also related to instrumental temperature data from Neumayer Station on Ekström Ice Shelf. Since the second half of the twentieth century, the SMB shows a statistically significant negative trend, whereas the δ18O of the cores shows a significant positive trend. No trend is found in air temperature at the nearest suitable weather station, Neumayer (available since 1981). This does not correspond to the statistically significant positive trend in Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which is usually associated with a cooling of East Antarctica. SAM index and SMB are negatively correlated, which might be explained by a decrease in meridional exchange of energy and moisture leading to lower precipitation amounts. Future monitoring of climate change on the sensitive Antarctic ice shelves is necessary to assess its consequences for sea level change.

The effects of nunataks on temperature profiles and wind patterns are studied using simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Simulations are compared to hourly observations from an automatic weather station located at the Troll Research Station in Dronning Maud Land. Areas of bare ground have been implemented in the model, and the simulations correspond well with meteorological measurements acquired during the 4 day simulation period. The nunataks are radiatively heated during daytime, and free convection occurs in the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. The inflow below the updraft forces strong horizontal convergence at the surface, whereas weaker divergence appears aloft. In a control run with a completely ice-covered surface, the convection is absent. In situ observations carried out by a remotely controlled balloon and a small model airplane compare well with model temperature profiles, but these are only available over the ice field upwind to the nunatak.

Antarctic sea ice areas have only been the main focus for a few studies combining observations and three-dimensional atmospheric model experiments. This study presents simulations over the Weddell Sea in early summer, applying the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF). The results are compared against observations from the drifting experiment Ice Station Polarstern, which took place on 28 November 2004?2 January 2005. The Polar WRF model showed good skill in simulating synoptic-scale variations. The diurnal cycles of surface variables were reproduced, but the amplitude was overestimated for most of the variables and the simulations were characterized by a cold temperature bias at night. The major challenges related to the modelling of the atmosphere over Antarctic sea ice were found to be associated with clouds, atmospheric boundary-layer processes and processes in the sea ice and snow layer. Temporal variations in the errors in cloud cover generated large errors in long-wave radiation fluxes. In the boundary layer, the overestimated downward sensible heat flux was partly compensated for by the underestimated downward long-wave radiation at the surface. The underestimated downward long-wave flux started to dominate as the stability increased and generated the cold temperature bias at the surface. Problems with the surface energy balance, as found in this study, could be reduced by applying more advanced schemes for snow and ice thermodynamics.

Atmospheric aerosol samples were collected over the Southern Ocean (SO) and coastal East Antarctica (CEA) during the austral summer of 2010/11. Samples were analysed for trace elements, including Na, Mg, K, Al, Fe, Mn, Ni, Cd and Se, by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The mean atmospheric concentrations over the SO were 1100 ng m−3 for Na, 190 ng m−3 for Mg, 150 ng m−3 for Al, 14 ng m−3 for Fe, 0.46 ng m−3 for Mn and 0.25 ng m−3 for Se. Over CEA, the mean concentrations were 990 ng m−3 for Na, 180 ng m−3 for Mg, 190 ng m−3 for Al, 26 ng m−3 for Fe, 0.70 ng m−3 for Mn and 0.29 ng m−3 for Se. Particle size distributions, enrichment factors (EFs) and correlation analysis indicate that Na, Mg and K mainly came from the marine source, while Al, Fe and Mn were mainly from the crustal source, which also contributed to Mg and K over CEA. High EFs were associated with Ni, Cd and Se, suggesting likely contributions from mixed sources from the Antarctic continent, long-range transport, marine biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions. Sea-salt elements (Na, Mg, K) were mainly accumulated in the coarse mode, and crustal elements (Al, Fe, Mn) presented a bimodal size distribution pattern. Bioactive elements (Fe, Ni, Cd) were enriched in the fine mode, especially with samples collected over the SO, possibly affecting biogeochemical cycles in this oceanic region. Keywords: Southern Ocean; coastal East Antarctica; trace elements; size distribution; sources.

Enhancement of ocean alkalinity using calcium compounds, e.g., lime has been proposed to mitigate further increase of atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Using a global model, we show that such alkalinization has the potential to preserve pH and the saturation state of carbonate minerals at close to today's values. Effects of alkalinization persist after termination: Atmospheric CO2 and pH do not return to unmitigated levels. Only scenarios in which large amounts of alkalinity (i.e., in a ratio of 2:1 with respect to emitted CO2) are added over large ocean areas can boost oceanic CO2 uptake sufficiently to avoid further ocean acidification on the global scale, thereby elevating some key biogeochemical parameters, e.g., pH significantly above preindustrial levels. Smaller-scale alkalinization could counteract ocean acidification on a subregional or even local scale, e.g., in upwelling systems. The decrease of atmospheric CO2 would then be a small side effect.

We report ground-based measurements of the polar middle atmosphere made using a 230–250 GHz passive microwave radiometer deployed at Troll station (72°01′S 02°32′E, L shell of L = 4.8), Antarctica. Our observations show enhanced mesospheric nitric oxide (NO) volume mixing ratio (VMR) during a series of small recurrent geomagnetic storms in the 2008 austral winter, reaching 1.2 ppmv on day 200 (18 July). The Lomb normalized periodogram of the NO VMR time series averaged over 65-80 km for days 130 to 220 of 2008 (9 May to 7 August) shows a peak exceeding the 95% confidence limit at 25.8 days, close to the synodic rotation period for low-latitude solar coronal holes. The highest correlations between the radiometer NO VMR data and trapped and quasi-trapped electron count rates for L = 3.5-5.5 from the Polar Orbiting Environment Satellites 90° telescope are for the >30 keV (90e1) channel (rmax = 0.56, lag time of 5.1 days) and >100 keV (90e2) channel (rmax = 0.57, lag time of 4.4 days). Maximum correlation between NO VMR and the >700 keV (90P6) channel data is lower but lag times are close to zero. Superposed epoch analyses for the eight most significant geomagnetic storm periods and three Carrington rotations (2070-2072) within the 90 day observation period indicate that significant NO abundance observed at 65-80 km in the Antarctic mesosphere may be produced directly by >200 keV electron precipitation or originate from a source at higher altitudes, e.g., production by >30 keV electrons followed by downward transport.

In this study, we present evidence that Antarctic and Arctic sea ice act as sink for atmospheric CO2 during periods of snowmelt and surface flooding. The CO2 flux measured directly at the flooded sea ice surface (Fflood) constituted a net CO2 sink of −1.1 ± 0.9 mmol C m−2 d−1 (mean ± 1 SD), which was an order of magnitude higher than the flux measured at the snow-air surface (Fsnow) and bare ice surface (Fice). The Fsnow/Fflood ratio decreased with increasing water equivalent of snow and superimposed-ice, suggesting that the properties of snow and superimposed-ice formation affect the magnitude of the CO2 flux. The Fsnow/Fflood ratio ranged from 0.1 to 0.5, illustrating that 50–90% of the potential flux at the flooded surface was reduced due to the presence of snow/superimposed-ice. Hence, snow cover properties and superimposed-ice play an important role in the CO2 fluxes across the sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface.

As part of the 2009 Operation Ice Bridge campaign, the NASA DC-8 aircraft was used to fill the data-time gap in laser observation of the changes in ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice between ICESat-I (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) and ICESat-II. Complementing the cryospheric instrument payload were four in situ atmospheric sampling instruments integrated onboard to measure trace gas concentrations of CO2, CO, N2O, CH4, water vapor and various VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds). This paper examines two plumes encountered at high altitude (12 km) during the campaign; one during a southbound transit flight (13°S) and the other at 86°S over Antarctica. The data presented are especially significant as the Southern Hemisphere is heavily under-sampled during the austral spring, with few if any high-resolution airborne observations of atmospheric gases made over Antarctica. Strong enhancements of CO, CH4, N2O, CHCl3, OCS, C2H6, C2H2 and C3H8 were observed in the two intercepted air masses that exhibited variations in VOC composition suggesting different sources. The transport model FLEXPART showed that the 13°S plume contained predominately biomass burning emissions originating from Southeast Asia and South Africa, while both anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were observed at 86°S with South America and South Africa as indicated source regions. The data presented here show evidence that boundary layer pollution is transported from lower latitudes toward the upper troposphere above the South Pole, which may not have been observed in the past.

We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during the glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories, which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models.

We report the first ground-based passive microwave observations made from Troll station, Antarctica, which show enhanced mesospheric nitric oxide (NO) volume mixing ratio reaching levels of 1.2 ppmv, or 2–3 orders of magnitude above background, at 70–80 km during small, relatively isolated geomagnetic storms in 2008. The mesospheric NO peaked 2 days after enhanced NO at higher altitudes (110–150 km) measured by the SABER satellite, and 2 days after peaks in the >30 keV and >300 keV electron flux measured by POES, although the 300 keV electron flux remained high. High time resolution data shows that mesospheric NO was enhanced at night and decayed during the day and built up to high levels over a period of 3–4 days. The altitude profile of mesospheric NO suggests direct production by ∼300 keV electron precipitation. Simulations using the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model show that the delay between thermospheric and mesospheric NO enhancements was primarily a result of the weaker production rate at lower altitudes by ∼300 keV electrons competing against strong day-time losses.