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Abstract Modeling results have suggested that the circulation of the stratosphere and mesosphere in spring is strongly affected by the perturbations in heating induced by the Antarctic ozone hole. Here using both mesospheric MF radar wind observations from Rothera Antarctica (67°S, 68°W) as well as stratospheric analysis data, we present observational evidence that the stratospheric and mesospheric wind strengths are highly anti-correlated, and show their largest variability in November. We find that these changes are related to the total amount of ozone loss that occurs during the Antarctic spring ozone hole and particularly with the ozone gradients that develop between 57.5°S and 77.5°S. The results show that with increasing ozone loss during spring, winter conditions in the stratosphere and mesosphere persist longer into the summer. These results are discussed in the light of observations of the onset and duration of the Antarctic polar mesospheric cloud season.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges.

Enhancement of ocean alkalinity using calcium compounds, e.g., lime has been proposed to mitigate further increase of atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Using a global model, we show that such alkalinization has the potential to preserve pH and the saturation state of carbonate minerals at close to today's values. Effects of alkalinization persist after termination: Atmospheric CO2 and pH do not return to unmitigated levels. Only scenarios in which large amounts of alkalinity (i.e., in a ratio of 2:1 with respect to emitted CO2) are added over large ocean areas can boost oceanic CO2 uptake sufficiently to avoid further ocean acidification on the global scale, thereby elevating some key biogeochemical parameters, e.g., pH significantly above preindustrial levels. Smaller-scale alkalinization could counteract ocean acidification on a subregional or even local scale, e.g., in upwelling systems. The decrease of atmospheric CO2 would then be a small side effect.

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.

Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall. Here we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model, evaluated with available firn core records and gravimetry observations, and show that such episodes had not been seen previously in the satellite climate data era (1979). Comparisons with historical data that originate from firn cores, one with records extending back to the 18th century, confirm that accumulation anomalies of this scale have not occurred in the past ~60 years, although comparable anomalies are found further back in time. We examined several regional climate model projections, describing various warming scenarios into the 21st century. Anomalies with magnitudes similar to the recently observed ones were not present in the model output for the current climate, but were found increasingly probable toward the end of the 21st century.

In this study, we present evidence that Antarctic and Arctic sea ice act as sink for atmospheric CO2 during periods of snowmelt and surface flooding. The CO2 flux measured directly at the flooded sea ice surface (Fflood) constituted a net CO2 sink of −1.1 ± 0.9 mmol C m−2 d−1 (mean ± 1 SD), which was an order of magnitude higher than the flux measured at the snow-air surface (Fsnow) and bare ice surface (Fice). The Fsnow/Fflood ratio decreased with increasing water equivalent of snow and superimposed-ice, suggesting that the properties of snow and superimposed-ice formation affect the magnitude of the CO2 flux. The Fsnow/Fflood ratio ranged from 0.1 to 0.5, illustrating that 50–90% of the potential flux at the flooded surface was reduced due to the presence of snow/superimposed-ice. Hence, snow cover properties and superimposed-ice play an important role in the CO2 fluxes across the sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface.

Over the last decade, several hundred seals have been equipped with conductivity-temperature-depth sensors in the Southern Ocean for both biological and physical oceanographic studies. A calibrated collection of seal-derived hydrographic data is now available, consisting of more than 165,000 profiles. The value of these hydrographic data within the existing Southern Ocean observing system is demonstrated herein by conducting two state estimation experiments, differing only in the use or not of seal data to constrain the system. Including seal-derived data substantially modifies the estimated surface mixed-layer properties and circulation patterns within and south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Agreement with independent satellite observations of sea ice concentration is improved, especially along the East Antarctic shelf. Instrumented animals efficiently reduce a critical observational gap, and their contribution to monitoring polar climate variability will continue to grow as data accuracy and spatial coverage increase.

The spatiotemporal sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice season length trends are examined using satellite-derived observations over 1979–2012. While the large-scale spatial structure of multidecadal trends has varied little during the satellite record, the magnitude of trends has undergone substantial weakening over the past decade. This weakening is particularly evident in the Ross and Bellingshausen Seas, where a ∼25–50% reduction is observed when comparing trends calculated over 1979–2012 and 1979–1999. Multidecadal trends in the Bellingshausen Sea are found to be dominated by variability over subdecadal time scales, particularly the rapid decline in season length observed between 1979 and 1989. In fact, virtually no trend is detectable when the first decade is excluded from trend calculations. In contrast, the sea ice expansion in the Ross Sea is less influenced by shorter-term variability, with trends shown to be more consistent at decadal time scales and beyond. Understanding these contrasting characteristics have implications for sea ice trend attribution.

Many challenges remain for estimating the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), which represents a major uncertainty in predictions of future sea-level rise. Validating continental scale studies is hampered by the sparse distribution of in situ data. Here we present a 26 year mean SMB of the Fimbul ice shelf in East Antarctica between 1983–2009, and recent interannual variability since 2010. We compare these data to the results of large-scale SMB studies for similar time periods, obtained from regional atmospheric modeling and remote sensing. Our in situ data include ground penetrating radar, firn cores, and mass balance stakes and provide information on both temporal and spatial scales. The 26 year mean SMB on the Fimbul ice shelf varies between 170 and 620 kg m−2 a−1 giving a regional average value of 310 ± 70 kg m−2 a−1. Our measurements indicate higher long-term accumulation over large parts of the ice shelf compared to the large-scale studies. We also show that the variability of the mean annual SMB, which can be up to 90%, can be a dominant factor in short-term estimates. The results emphasize the importance of using a combination of ground-based validation data, regional climate models, and remote sensing over a relevant time period in order to achieve a reliable SMB for Antarctica.

Freshwater pulses from melting ice sheets are thought to be important for driving deglacial climate variability. This study investigates challenges in simulating and understanding deglacial climate evolution within this framework, with emphasis on uncertainties in the ocean overturning sensitivity to meltwater inputs. The response of an intermediate complexity model to a single Northern Hemisphere meltwater pulse is familiar: a weakening of the ocean overturning circulation in conjunction with an expansion of sea ice cover and a meridional temperature seesaw. Nonlinear processes are vital in shaping this response and are found to have a decisive influence when more complex scenarios with a history of pulses are involved. A meltwater history for the last deglaciation (21–9 ka) was computed from the ICE-5G ice sheet reconstruction, and the meltwater was routed into the ocean through idealized ice sheet drainages. Forced with this meltwater history, model configurations with altered freshwater sensitivity produce a range of outcomes for the deglaciation, from those in which there is a complete collapse of the overturning circulation to those in which the overturning circulation weakens slightly. The different outcomes are interpreted in terms of the changing hysteresis behavior of the overturning circulation (i.e., non-stationary freshwater sensitivity) as the background climate warms through the course of the deglaciation. The study illustrates that current uncertainties in model sensitivity are limiting in efforts to forward-model deglacial climate variability. Furthermore, ice sheet reconstructions are shown to provide poor constraints on meltwater forcing for simulating the deglaciation.

Growth of Antarctic ice sheet during the Cenozoic 34 million years ago appears as a potential tipping point in the long term cooling trend that began 50 Ma ago. For decades, the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) following the opening of the Drake Passage and of the Tasman Seaway has been suggested as the main driver of the continental-scale Antarctic glaciation. However, recent modeling works emphasized that the Eocene/Oligocene atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lowering could be the primary forcing of the Antarctic glaciation, questioning the ACC theory. Here, we investigate the response of the ACC to changes in CO2concentrations occurring from the late Eocene to the late Oligocene. We used a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model (FOAM) with a mid-Oligocene geography. We find that the opening of southern oceanic gateways does not trigger the onset of the ACC for CO2typical of the late Eocene (>840 ppm). A cooler background climatic state such as the one prevalent at the end of the Oligocene is required to simulate a well-developed ACC. In this cold configuration, the intensified sea-ice development around Antarctica and the resulting brine formation lead to a strong latitudinal density gradient in the Southern Ocean favoring the compensation of the Ekman transport, and consequently the ACC. Our results imply that the ACC has acted as a feedback rather than as a driver of the global cooling.

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007–2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963–2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10–20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during the glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories, which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models.

We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH3CF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF3CHFCF3, 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF3CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only ∼1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10−12) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to ∼0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr−1 at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in ∼2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr−1, HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr−1), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (∼2005–2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr−1 and 0.18 kt yr−1 over the 2008–2010 period, respectively.

The latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Southern Ocean from six different data sets are inter-compared for the period 1988- 2000. The six data sets include three satellite-based products, namely, the second version of the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes data set (GSSTF-2), the third version of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS-3) and the Japanese Ocean Fluxes Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO); two global reanalysis products, namely, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 data set (NCEP-2) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis data set (ERA-40); and the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes for the Global Oceans data set (OAFlux). All these products reveal a similar pattern in the averaged flux fields. The zonal mean LHF fields all exhibit a continuous increase equatorward. With an exception of HOAPS-3, the zonal mean SHF fields display a minimum value near 50°S, increasing both pole- and equatorward. The differences in the standard deviation for LHF are larger among the six data products than the differences for SHF. Over the regions where the surface fluxes are significantly influenced by the Antarctic Oscillation and the Pacific-South American teleconnection, the values and distributions of both LHF and SHF are consistent among the six products. It was found that the spatial patterns of the standard deviations and trends of LHF and SHF can be explained primarily by sea-air specific humidity and temperature differences; wind speed plays a minor role. Keywords: Latent heat flux; sensible heat flux; Southern Ocean.

Sensitivity studies with global climate models show that, by their influence on the radiation balance, Antarctic clouds play a major role in the climate system, both directly at high southern latitudes and indirectly globally, as the local circulation changes lead to global teleconnections. Unfortunately, observations of cloud distribution in the Antarctic are limited and often of low quality because of the practical difficulty in observing clouds in the harsh Antarctic environment. The best surface observations suggest that the fractional cloud cover at the South Pole is around 50–60% in all seasons, whereas the cloud cover rises to around 80–90% close to the coast of the continent. Microphysical observations of cloud parameters are also very sparse in the Antarctic. However, the few measurements that do exist show predominantly ice-crystal clouds across the interior, with mixed-phase clouds close to the coasts. Crystal sizes vary from 5 to 30 mm (effective radius) in the interior to somewhat larger ice crystals and water drops near the coast. A wide range of crystal shapes is observed at all sites. This review considers the available cloud observations and highlights the importance of Antarctic clouds and the need for better observations in the future.

An extreme precipitation event that influenced almost the whole polar plateau of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, is investigated using Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System archive data. For the first time a high-resolution atmospheric model especially adapted for polar regions was used for such a study in Dronning Maud Land. The outstanding event of 21–25 February 2003 was connected to a strong north-westerly flow, caused by a blocking high above eastern Dronning Maud Land, that persisted for several days and brought unusually large levels of moisture to the Antarctic Plateau. This weather situation is most effective in bringing precipitation to high-altitude interior Antarctic ice-core drilling sites, where precipitation in the form of diamond dust usually dominates. However, a few such precipitation events per year can account for a large percentage of the annual accumulation, which can cause a strong bias in ice-core data. Additionally, increased temperatures and wind speeds during these events need to be taken into account for the correct climatic interpretation of ice cores. A better understanding of the frequency of occurrence of intermittent precipitation in the interior of Antarctica in past and future climates is necessary for both palaeoclimatological studies and estimates of future sea-level change.

We have developed a 5.5 year climatology of atmospheric transport into the Antarctic troposphere, which uses the same data set and methods as described in a recent study for the Arctic. This allows direct comparisons of transport properties for the two polar regions. The climatology is based on a simulation with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, where the model atmosphere was globally filled with particles. Transport characteristics as well as emission sensitivities were derived from 6 hourly particle positions. We found that the probability for near-surface air to originate from the stratosphere on a time scale of 10 days is an order of magnitude higher near the South Pole than near the North Pole, a result of higher topography and descent that partly compensates for the flow of air down the Antarctic Plateau with the katabatic winds. The stratospheric influence is largest in fall, which is opposite to the seasonality in the Arctic. Stratospheric influence is much smaller over the shelf ice regions and in a band around Antarctica. The average time for which air near the surface has been exposed to continuous darkness in July (continuous light in January) is longest over the Ronne Ice Shelf and Ross Ice Shelf at ∼11 days (20 days). We calculated how sensitive Antarctic air masses are to emission input up to 30 days before arriving in Antarctica if removal processes are ignored. The emission sensitivity shows strong meridional gradients and, as a result, is generally low over South America, Africa, and Australia. For a 10 day time scale, the largest emission sensitivities over these continents are 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than over Eurasia for transport to the Arctic, showing that foreign continents have a much smaller potential to pollute the Antarctic than the Arctic troposphere. Emission sensitivities and derived black carbon (BC) source contributions over South America, Africa, and Australia are substantially (a factor 10 for Africa) larger in winter than in summer. In winter, biomass burning contributes more BC than anthropogenic sources. For typical aerosol lifetimes of 5–10 days, ship emissions south of 60°S account for half of the total BC concentrations in the lowest 1000 m of the atmosphere south of 70°S in December. The increasing number of tourists visiting Antarctica and fishing vessels operating close to Antarctica are, therefore, a matter of concern.

The atmospheric observatory at the Norwegian Research Station Troll in Queen Maud Land, Antarctica, holds, since February 2007, the first all-year Antarctic atmospheric aerosol particle number size distribution measurements. These are colocated with measurements of the aerosol absorption and spectral scattering coefficients. In June 2007, this instrument set observed an aerosol whose properties were indicative of a biomass burning aerosol. These properties included two log-normal size distribution modes with median particle diameters of 0.105 μm and 0.36 μm, sharply falling off to smaller and larger sizes, and peaks in scattering and absorption coefficient. With backward plume calculations of the Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART and the MODIS fire activity product, a source-receptor relationship was established between biomass burning events in Central Brazil and the aerosol seen at Troll. This is the first direct evidence that the Antarctic continent is susceptible to emissions from as far north as Southern tropical latitudes.