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Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) is an important source of polar nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the upper atmosphere. During winter, mesospheric NOx has a long chemical lifetime and is transported to the stratosphere by the mean meridional circulation. Climate change is expected to accelerate this circulation and therefore increase polar mesospheric descent rates. We investigate the Southern Hemispheric polar NOx distribution during the 21st century under a variety of future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We simulate stronger polar mesospheric descent in all future scenarios that increase the atmospheric radiative forcing. Polar NOx in the upper stratosphere is significantly enhanced in two future scenarios with the largest increase in radiative forcing. This indicates that the ozone depleting NOx cycle will become more important in the future, especially if stratospheric chlorine species decline. Thus, EEP-related atmospheric effects may become more prominent in the future.

The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over past decades through the accelerated flow of its glaciers, conditioned by ocean temperature and bed topography. Glaciers retreating along retrograde slopes (that is, the bed elevation drops in the inland direction) are potentially unstable, while subglacial ridges slow down the glacial retreat. Despite major advances in the mapping of subglacial bed topography, significant sectors of Antarctica remain poorly resolved and critical spatial details are missing. Here we present a novel, high-resolution and physically based description of Antarctic bed topography using mass conservation. Our results reveal previously unknown basal features with major implications for glacier response to climate change. For example, glaciers flowing across the Transantarctic Mountains are protected by broad, stabilizing ridges. Conversely, in the marine basin of Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, we find retrograde slopes along Ninnis and Denman glaciers, with stabilizing slopes beneath Moscow University, Totten and Lambert glacier system, despite corrections in bed elevation of up to 1 km for the latter. This transformative description of bed topography redefines the high- and lower-risk sectors for rapid sea level rise from Antarctica; it will also significantly impact model projections of sea level rise from Antarctica in the coming centuries.

Reconstructing the response of present-day ice sheets to past global climate change is important for constraining and refining the numerical models which forecast future contributions of these ice sheets to sea-level change. Mapping landforms is an essential step in reconstructing glacial histories. Here we present a new map of glacial landforms and deposits on nunataks in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Nunataks are mountains or ridges that currently protrude through the ice sheet and may provide evidence that they have been wholly or partly covered by ice, thus indicating a formerly more extensive (thicker) ice sheet. The map was produced through a combination of mapping from Worldview satellite imagery and ground validation. The sub-metre spatial resolution of the satellite imagery enabled mapping with unprecedented detail. Ten landform categories have been mapped, and the landform distributions provide evidence constraining spatial patterns of a previously thicker ice sheet.

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.

The shape of ice shelf cavities are a major source of uncertainty in understanding ice-ocean interactions. This limits assessments of the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to climate change. Here we use vibroseis seismic reflection surveys to map the bathymetry beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land. The new bathymetry reveals an inland-sloping trough, reaching depths of 1,100 m below sea level, near the current grounding line, which we attribute to erosion by palaeo-ice streams. The trough does not cross-cut the outer parts of the continental shelf. Conductivity-temperature-depth profiles within the ice shelf cavity reveal the presence of cold water at shallower depths and tidal mixing at the ice shelf margins. It is unknown if warm water can access the trough. The new bathymetry is thought to be representative of many ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land, which together regulate the ice loss from a substantial area of East Antarctica.

Antarktis kan virke som det sover under en beskyttende dyne av snø og is. Kontinentet har vært lite påvirket av menneskelig aktivitet, men har nå begynt å våkne. Klimaendringene har nådd fram til det frosne kontinentet ved Sørpolen. Relativt varme og salte havstrømmer kommer seg nå helt inn til isen. Men satellitter viser at det smelter mindre is enn det som hadde vært mulig med den tilgjengelige mengden varme. Vi har brukt observasjoner og resultater fra laboratoriet for å forklare hvor det varme vannet blir av.

Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the ocean has increased in recent decades, largely because the thinning of its floating ice shelves has allowed the outflow of grounded ice to accelerate. Enhanced basal melting of the ice shelves is thought to be the ultimate driver of change, motivating a recent focus on the processes that control ocean heat transport onto and across the seabed of the Antarctic continental shelf towards the ice. However, the shoreward heat flux typically far exceeds that required to match observed melt rates, suggesting that other critical controls exist. Here we show that the depth-independent (barotropic) component of the heat flow towards an ice shelf is blocked by the marked step shape of the ice front, and that only the depth-varying (baroclinic) component, which is typically much smaller, can enter the sub-ice cavity. Our results arise from direct observations of the Getz Ice Shelf system and laboratory experiments on a rotating platform. A similar blocking of the barotropic component may occur in other areas with comparable ice–bathymetry configurations, which may explain why changes in the density structure of the water column have been found to be a better indicator of basal melt rate variability than the heat transported onto the continental shelf. Representing the step topography of the ice front accurately in models is thus important for simulating ocean heat fluxes and induced melt rates.

Global climate change is significantly affecting marine life off the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, but little is known about microbial ecology in this area. The main goal of this study was to investigate the bacterioplankton community structure in surface waters using pyrosequencing and to determine factors influencing this community. Pelagibacterales and Rhodobacterales (Alphaproteobacteria), Oceanospirillales and Alteromonadales (Gammaproteobacteria), and Flavobacteriales (Bacteroidetes) were the core taxa in our samples, and the five most relatively abundant genera were Pelagibacter, Polaribacter, Octadecabacter, group HTCC2207 and Sulfitobacter. Although nutrients and chlorophyll a (chl a) contributed more to bacterioplankton community structure than water masses or depth, only 30.39% of the variance could be explained by the investigated environmental factors, as revealed by RDA and pRDA. No significant difference with respect to nutrients and chl a was observed among water masses or depth, as indicated by ANOVA. Furthermore, significant correlations among the dominant bacterial genera were more common than correlations between dominant genera and environmental factors, as revealed by Spearman analysis. We conclude that nutrients and chl a become homogeneous and that interpopulation interactions may have a central role in influencing the bacterial community structure in surface waters off the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula during the summer.

An urgent necessity to understand the effect of climatic change on scleractinian cold-water coral (CWC) ecosystems has arisen due to increasing ocean warming and acidification over the last decades. Here, presence-absence records of 12 scleractinian CWC species from research expeditions and the literature were compiled and merged with model-generated pseudo-absence data and 14 environmental variables. The best-fitting results of 9 species distribution models (SDMs) were combined to an ensemble habitat suitability model for CWCs in the northern Southern Ocean (Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula) by means of the open-source R package "biomod2". Furthermore, 2 future scenarios of increasing bottom sea temperature were used to investigate the spatial response of scleractinians to temperature change. The resulting (current scenario) potential ecological niches were evaluated with good to excellent statistical measures. The results predict that present areas of highest probability of CWC occurrence are around the Antarctic Peninsula, South Orkney Islands and Queen Maud Land, with preference to geomorphic features such as seamounts. The distribution of CWC habitats is mainly driven by distance to coast and ice shelves, bathymetry, benthic calcium carbonate, and temperature. Under warming conditions, CWCs are predicted to expand their distribution range by 6 and 10% in 2037 and 2150, respectively, compared to the present distribution. The future models using increased bottom temperature revealed a stable CWC distribution for most parts of the study area. However, habitat shifts are expected to the Filchner Trough region, the adjacent continental shelves, as well as to the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula. KEYWORDS: Scleractinian coral · Ensemble models · Environmental change · Habitat suitability model · Spatial distribution · Weddell Sea. Antarctica

Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) measurements have been limited along the Antarctic coast, although groundwater discharge is becoming recognized as an important process in the Antarctic. Quantifying this meltwater pathway is important for hydrologic budgets, ice mass balances and solute delivery to the coastal ocean. Here, we estimate the combined discharge of subglacial and submarine groundwater to the Antarctic coastal ocean. SGD, including subglacial and submarine groundwater, is quantified along the WAP at the Marr Glacier terminus using the activities of naturally occurring radium isotopes (223Ra, 224Ra). Estimated SGD fluxes from a 224Ra mass balance ranged from (0.41 ± 0.14)×104 and (8.2 ± 2.3)×104m3 d−1. Using a salinity mass balance, we estimate SGD contributes up to 32% of the total freshwater to the coastal environment near Palmer Station. This study suggests that a large portion of the melting glacier may be infiltrating into the bedrock and being discharged to coastal waters along the WAP. Meltwater infiltrating as groundwater at glacier termini is an important solute delivery mechanism to the nearshore environment that can influence biological productivity. More importantly, quantifying this meltwater pathway may be worthy of attention when predicting future impacts of climate change on retreat of tidewater glaciers.

Because geoscientific research often occurs via community-instigated bursts of activity with multi-investigator collaborations variously labelled as e.g., years (The International Polar Year IPY), experiments (World Ocean Circulation Experiment WOCE), programs (International Ocean Discovery Program), missions (CRYOSAT spacecraft), or decades (The International Decade of Ocean Exploration IDOE), successful attainment of research goals generally requires skilful scientific project management. In addition to the usual challenges of matching scientific ambitions to limited resources, on-going coordination and specifically project management, planning and implementation of polar science projects often involve many uncertainties caused by, for example, unpredictable weather or ocean and sea ice conditions, large-scale logistical juggling; and often these collaborations are spatially distributed and take place virtually. Large amounts of funding are needed to procure the considerable infrastructure and technical equipment required for polar expeditions; permissions to enter certain regions must be requested; and potential risks for expedition members as well as technical issues in extreme environments need to be considered. All these aspects are challenging for polar science projects, which therefore need a well thought-through program including a realistic alternative “plan B” and possibly also a “plan C” and “plan D”. The four most challenging overarching themes in polar science project management have been identified: international cooperation, interdisciplinarity, infrastructure, and community management. In this paper, we address ongoing challenges and opportunities in polar science project management based on a survey among 199 project and community managers and an additional of 85 project team members active in the field of polar sciences. Case studies and survey results are discussed with the conclusive goal to provide recommendations on how to fully reach the potential of polar sciences project and community management.

The Belgica expedition, which left Belgium in August 1897, was the first to spend 13 months continuously in Antarctic waters, before returning in late 1899. This was not only an exploratory venture, as new lands and oceans were charted, but more importantly it was an exceptional and successful scientific voyage. After the return of the expedition, a vast array of scientific data was processed and eventually 92 publications in some nine volumes funded by the Belgica Commission appeared over 40 years as a series called Résultats du voyage de la Belgica en 1897–99 sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery – rapports scientifiques. Disappointingly, those significant results have been mostly ignored in the scientific literature and the paper here aims to inform scientists of the achievements of the Belgica expedition and where to obtain the information. Many of the climatological and oceanographic data obtained by the expeditioners ought to be examined in line with the changes that are occurring today in the Antarctic Peninsula region as a result of global warming. Some of the Belgica data form an important database to critically assess environmental changes over 120 years in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula.

Antarctica is recognized as being geopolitically and scientifically important, and as one of the regions with the greatest potential to affect and be affected by global climate change. Still, little is known in practice about how climate change will be handled within the main governance framework of the continent: the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). Using qualitative interviews, participant observations and policy document analysis, this paper explores the perspectives of Chilean scientific, political and non-governmental actors regarding the implications of climate change for the current Antarctic governance framework. Results corroborate a misalignment of the climate change agenda and the ATS, stemming from the divergent views displayed by a wide network of actors. From the interviews, two predominant visions emerge: (i) climate change as an opportunity, where actors recognize the role of Antarctica in regulating global climate and stress greater opportunities to conduct Antarctic-based climate change research, the need for strategic international collaboration, and the reinforcement of Chile’s position in Antarctica through science; (ii) climate change as a burden where actors acknowledge climate change as a global problem, largely external to Antarctica, express disbelief regarding the effectiveness of local actions to tackle climate change and do not associate with climate change governance. The study concludes that climate change may become a dividing, rather than a unifying, field of action in Chilean Antarctic governance, reinforcing previously existing geopolitical tendencies.

The Inverse Gaussian approximation of transit time distribution method (IG-TTD) is widely used to infer the anthropogenic carbon (Cant) concentration in the ocean from measurements of transient tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Its accuracy relies on the validity of several assumptions, notably (i) a steady state ocean circulation, (ii) a prescribed age tracer saturation history, e.g., a constant 100% saturation, (iii) a prescribed constant degree of mixing in the ocean, (iv) a constant surface ocean air-sea CO2 disequilibrium with time, and (v) that preformed alkalinity can be sufficiently estimated by salinity or salinity and temperature. Here, these assumptions are evaluated using simulated “model-truth” of Cant. The results give the IG-TTD method a range of uncertainty from 7.8% to 13.6% (11.4 Pg C to 19.8 Pg C) due to above assumptions, which is about half of the uncertainty derived in previous model studies. Assumptions (ii), (iv) and (iii) are the three largest sources of uncertainties, accounting for 5.5%, 3.8% and 3.0%, respectively, while assumptions (i) and (v) only contribute about 0.6% and 0.7%. Regionally, the Southern Ocean contributes the largest uncertainty, of 7.8%, while the North Atlantic contributes about 1.3%. Our findings demonstrate that spatial-dependency of , and temporal changes in tracer saturation and air-sea CO2 disequilibrium have strong compensating effect on the estimated Cant. The values of these parameters should be quantified to reduce the uncertainty of IG-TTD; this is increasingly important under a changing ocean climate.

Antarctica’s terrestrial ecosystems are vulnerable to impacts resulting from climate change and local human activities. The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) provides for the designation of protected areas through the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty. Unsystematic use of agreed management tools, including Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs), has resulted in a protected area system lacking representation across the full range of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems and Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) methods provide established mechanisms to fulfil ATS protected area designation goals. However, how would a continent-wide ASPA system be delivered should appropriate sites be identified using SCP or other methods? Although the rate of area protection has slowed recently, we show that newer Consultative Parties to the Antarctic Treaty are increasingly active as ASPA proponents and may have scope for further engagement with protected area management activities. Furthermore, all 16 ACBRs were found to be within the operational footprint of at least two Parties, indicating that this current logistical footprint could support the implementation and management of a continent-wide ASPA system. Effective management of a representative Antarctic protected areas system could be delivered through greater participation by those Parties with currently more limited protected area management responsibilities and greater use of remote-sensing technologies for protected area monitoring, where appropriate. Crucially, political will to implement an ASPA system identified through SCP approaches may be greater once a pragmatic means of delivery and effective management has been identified.

We carried out a bibliometric analysis of literature related to glaciers in polar regions from the period 1987–2016 indexed in the Science Citation Index Expanded database. A comprehensive review was performed by analysing the research output trends, publication categories, main journals, leading countries and their collaborations, leading scientists, author keywords and Keywords Plus. The results indicated that the number of publications related to glaciers in polar regions has increased rapidly. The USA and several European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Switzerland, are the leaders in the field of glacial studies, as reflected both in the productivity measures and in the distribution of core scientists. Quaternary Science Reviews, the Journal of Glaciology, and Geophysical Research Letters were the most productive journals for glacial studies. The synthesized analysis of the keywords demonstrated the current research emphases and hinted at future research trends. Reconstructing past climate changes through studies of ice-core records is one of the most important research subjects. Numerical modelling has become a commonly used tool in polar region glacial research. A better understanding of the responses of glaciers to widespread climatic warming is needed now and in the future.

Isen i Antarktis smelter ikkje med det første, men store endringar er undervegs i havet. Havvatnet rundt Antarktis er iskaldt, men nå observerer vi at varmare vatn strøymer innunder den flytande delen av is-kappen. Om denne utviklinga ikkje stopper vil meir innlandsis strøyme ut i havet og føre til at havnivået vil stige med fleire meter. Det er langt frå sikkert at dette vil skje, men det er eit veldig viktig klimaspørsmål som vi må forstå betre. Difor har Uni Research med støtte av Forskingsrådet og Polarinstituttet bygd fleire havobservatorium for å kunne gi eit tidleg varsel dramatisk endringar.