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The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China. This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983–2015. The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO, failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO, with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index (AAOI). Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals, we firstly establish a dynamical–statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI (DY AAOI), with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice. This dynamical–statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983–2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation. Then, we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI. The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coefficient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983–2015. Moreover, the unrealistic atmospheric response to March–April–May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO. This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction.

Between 5 and 8 December 1997, the surface air temperature increased up to 3°C in the interior of West Antarctica, at Patriot Hills (PH), located at about 80°08’S, 81°16ʹ W, at an elevation of 855 m a.s.l. This was about 15°C warmer than the mean air temperature (−12°C) for this location at this time of the year. The ice surface field along the hills used as a runway for large aircraft melted, forming small ponds at the foot of the slope. This warm event was associated with a passing mid-tropospheric ridge that reached the interior of West Antarctica, whose anticyclonic circulation advected warm air towards the PH area. The foehn effect of the descending airflow on the northern slope of PH did not significantly contribute to the warming. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was reaching its mature phase during the last quarter of 1997 and the warming/melting episode may be related to large-scale circulation associated with ENSO occurrence. However, warm events in the interior of West Antarctica may occur during any phase of ENSO. In contrast, the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation seems to support the development of the mid-tropospheric ridges that can advect warm maritime air towards the interior of West Antarctica. The 3°C registered at PH may be one of the highest near-surface air temperatures measured below 2500 m a.s.l. in the far interior coastal area of West Antarctica. This suggests a new subregion for determining air temperature records in Antarctica may need to be considered.

The Belgica expedition, which left Belgium in August 1897, was the first to spend 13 months continuously in Antarctic waters, before returning in late 1899. This was not only an exploratory venture, as new lands and oceans were charted, but more importantly it was an exceptional and successful scientific voyage. After the return of the expedition, a vast array of scientific data was processed and eventually 92 publications in some nine volumes funded by the Belgica Commission appeared over 40 years as a series called Résultats du voyage de la Belgica en 1897–99 sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery – rapports scientifiques. Disappointingly, those significant results have been mostly ignored in the scientific literature and the paper here aims to inform scientists of the achievements of the Belgica expedition and where to obtain the information. Many of the climatological and oceanographic data obtained by the expeditioners ought to be examined in line with the changes that are occurring today in the Antarctic Peninsula region as a result of global warming. Some of the Belgica data form an important database to critically assess environmental changes over 120 years in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula.

This paper addresses the barely known history of an Argentine Antarctic hut: the Teniente Luis Ventimiglia hut, installed by the Argentine Antarctic Institute on Peter I Øy (Peter I Island) in March 1971. In examining the history of the only Argentine Antarctic facility outside of the Argentine Antarctic Sector, this article describes the reasons behind the establishment of the hut and the scientific work that took place there as well as previous Argentine expeditions to Peter I.

There is increasing interest in using higher-trophic level predators as ecosystem indicators because their performance is presumed to be linked to the overall function of the ecosystem that supports them. In the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) supports huge predator populations as well as a growing commercial fishery. To utilize information from the ecosystem in an adaptive framework for sustainably managing krill catch levels, performance indices of krill predators have been proposed as a proxy for krill abundance. However, there are several potentially confounding sources of variability that might impact predator performance such as the effects of environmental variability and fishing pressure on krill availability at scales relevant to predators. In this context, our study capitalises on the occurrence of an unexpected El Niño event to characterise how environmental variability can drive changes in predator foraging behaviour. We demonstrate a clear link between coastal downwelling and changes in the at-sea habitat usage of chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica) foraging in a local krill fishing area. Penguins tracked from their breeding colonies on Powell Island, Antarctic Peninsula, undertook fewer, longer foraging trips during the downwelling-affected season compared with the season where no such downwelling was detected, suggesting that changes in climate-driven oceanography may have reduced krill availability along the northern shelf of the island. Our study demonstrates that penguin foraging behaviour is modified by scale-dependent processes, which if not accounted for may result in erroneous conclusions being drawn when using penguins as bioindicators of krill abundance.

A likely important feature of the poorly understood aerosol-cloud interactions over the Southern Ocean (SO) is the dominant role of sea spray aerosol, versus terrestrial aerosol. Ice nucleating particles (INPs), or particles required for heterogeneous ice nucleation, present over the SO have not been studied in several decades. In this study, boundary layer aerosol properties and immersion freezing INP number concentrations (nINPs) were measured during a ship campaign that occurred south of Australia (down to 53°S) in March–April 2016. Ocean surface chlorophyll a concentrations ranged from 0.11 to 1.77 mg/m3, and nINPs were a factor of 100 lower than historical surveys, ranging from 0.38 to 4.6 m−3 at −20 °C. The INP population included organic heat-stable material, with contributions from heat-labile material. Lower INP source potentials of SO seawater samples compared to Arctic seawater were consistent with lower ice nucleating site densities in this study compared to north Atlantic air masses.

While observed mesospheric polar nitric acid enhancements have been attributed to energetic particle precipitation through ion cluster chemistry in the past, this phenomenon is not reproduced in current whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate models. We investigate such nitric acid enhancements resulting from energetic electron precipitation events using a recently developed variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that includes a sophisticated ion chemistry tailored for the D-layer of the ionosphere (50–90 km), namely, WACCM-D. Using the specified dynamics mode, that is, nudging dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere to meteorological reanalyses, we perform a 1-year-long simulation (July 2009–June 2010) and contrast WACCM-D with the standard WACCM. Both WACCM and WACCM-D simulations are performed with and without forcing from medium-to-high energy electron precipitation, allowing a better representation of the energetic electrons penetrating into the mesosphere. We demonstrate the effects of the strong particle precipitation events which occurred during April and May 2010 on nitric acid and on key ion cluster species, as well as other relevant species of the nitrogen family. The 1-year-long simulation allows the event-related changes in neutral and ionic species to be placed in the context of their annual cycle. We especially highlight the role played by medium-to-high energy electrons in triggering ion cluster chemistry and ion-ion recombinations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the precipitation event, leading to enhanced production of nitric acid and raising its abundance by 2 orders of magnitude from 10−4 to a few 10−2 ppb.

During the 35th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were carried out using a Li-Cor CO 2 /H 2 O analyser at Bharati, the Indian Antarctic research station. This study examines the short-term variability of atmospheric CO 2 during the austral summer (January–February) of 2016. An average of 396.25 ± 4.20 ppm was observed during the study period. Meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and atmospheric boundary layer height in conjunction with photosynthetically active radiation, the biological activity indicator which modulates atmospheric CO 2 concentration have been investigated. High wind speed (>20 m s −1 ) combined with precipitation scavenges CO 2 in the atmosphere, resulting in low concentrations at the study site. The lowest CO 2 concentration of 385 ppm coincided with heavy precipitation of 15 mm during study period. Statistical analysis of the data shows that precipitation and relative humidity independently correlated 55% (r = −0.55) and 32% (r = −0.32), respectively, with the variability of CO 2 mixing in the atmosphere at the study site. Atmospheric CO 2 was significantly correlated with precipitation alone with a p value of 0.003. Further, multiple regression analysis was performed to test the significant relation between variability of atmospheric CO 2 and meteorological parameters. Long-range air-mass transport analysis depicted that the majority of the air masses are reaching the study site through the oceanic region.

This study investigates the interhemispheric nature of polar cap auroras via ultraviolet imaging, combined with particle data, to determine whether they occur on open or closed field lines. Data from the SSUSI (Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager) instrument on board the DMSP (Defence Meteorological Satellite Program) spacecraft are examined. The DMSP spacecraft are in 90-min orbits; hence, images of each hemisphere are separated by 45 min providing a good opportunity for interhemispheric study. 21 polar cap arc (PCA) events are recorded in December 2015 which have particle data from the SSJ/4 particle spectrometer associated with an arc in at least one hemisphere. Nine events are found to contain 'arcs' consistent with a closed field line mechanism, that is, arcs associated with an ion signature present in both hemispheres. Six events contained arcs that were consistent with an 'open field line' mechanism, that is, they were associated with electron-only precipitation. Events containing arcs that were not consistent with either of these expectations are also explored, including an example of a 'non-conjugate' theta aurora and an interesting example of auroral morphology similar to a PCA which is associated with a geomagnetic storm. Seasonal effects are also investigated through a statistical analysis of PCAs over 4 months in 2015. It is found that PCAs are visible in the SSUSI data at least 20% of the time and that it is likely some are missed due to the spacecraft field of view and poor sensitivity in the summer hemisphere due to increased solar illumination.

Direct measurement of precipitation in the Antarctic using ground-based instruments is important to validate the results from climate models, reanalyses and satellite observations. Quantifying precipitation in Antarctica faces many unique challenges such as wind and other technical difficulties due to the harsh environment. This study compares a variety of precipitation measurements in Antarctica, including satellite data and reanalysis fields at Rothera Station, Antarctica Peninsula. The tipping bucket gauges (TBGs) were less sensitive than laserbased sensors (LBSs). The most sensitive LBS (Visibility and Present Weather Sensor, VPF-730) registered 276 precipitation days, while the most sensitive TBG (Universal Precipitation Gauge, UPG-1000) detected 152 precipitation days. Case studies of the precipitation and seasonal accumulation results show the VPF-730 to be the most reliable precipitation sensor of the evaluated instruments. The precipitation amounts given by the reanalyses were positively correlated with wind speed. The precipitation from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis was most affected by wind speed. Case studies also show that during low wind periods, precipitation measurements from the instruments were very close to the precipitation measurement given by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1-degreedaily (1DD) data. During strong wind events, the GPCP 1DD did not fully capture the effect of wind, accounting for the relatively small precipitation amount. The Laser Precipitation Monitor (LPM) and Campbell Scientific-700 (CS700H) experienced instrumental errors during the study, which caused the precipitation readings to become exceedingly high and low, respectively. Installing multiple LBSs in different locations (in close proximity) can help identify inconsistency in the readings.

Motivated by recent event studies and modeling efforts on pulsating aurora, which conclude that the precipitation energy during these events is high enough to cause significant chemical changes in the mesosphere, this study looks for the bulk behavior of auroral pulsations. Based on about 400 pulsating aurora events, we outline the typical duration, geomagnetic conditions, and change in the peak emission height for the events. We show that the auroral peak emission height for both green and blue emission decreases by about 8 km at the start of the pulsating aurora interval. This brings the hardest 10% of the electrons down to about 90 km altitude. The median duration of pulsating aurora is about 1.4 h. This value is a conservative estimate since in many cases the end of event is limited by the end of auroral imaging for the night or the aurora drifting out of the camera field of view. The longest durations of auroral pulsations are observed during events which start within the substorm recovery phases. As a result, the geomagnetic indices are not able to describe pulsating aurora. Simultaneous Antarctic auroral images were found for 10 pulsating aurora events. In eight cases auroral pulsations were seen in the southern hemispheric data as well, suggesting an equatorial precipitation source and a frequent interhemispheric occurrence. The long lifetimes of pulsating aurora, their interhemispheric occurrence, and the relatively high-precipitation energies make this type of aurora an effective energy deposition process which is easy to identify from the ground-based image data.

The Southern Ocean (SO) carbon sink has strengthened substantially since the year 2000, following a decade of a weakening trend. However, the surface ocean pCO2 data underlying this trend reversal are sparse, requiring a substantial amount of extrapolation to map the data. Here we use nine different pCO2 mapping products to investigate the SO trends and their sensitivity to the mapping procedure. We find a robust temporal coherence for the entire SO, with eight of the nine products agreeing on the sign of the decadal trends, that is, a weakening CO2 sink trend in the 1990s (on average 0.22 ± 0.24 Pg C yr−1 decade−1), and a strengthening sink trend during the 2000s (−0.35 ± 0.23 Pg C yr−1 decade−1). Spatially, the multiproduct mean reveals rather uniform trends, but the confidence is limited, given the small number of statistically significant trends from the individual products, particularly during the data-sparse 1990–1999 period.

This paper describes the significant direct and indirect contributions to science made by the Norwegian polar explorer Roald Amundsen in the period 1897–1924. It documents that his expeditions through the North-west Passage (1903–06) with Gjøa, to the South Pole (1910–12) with Fram and through the North-east Passage (1918–1920) and the Chukchi and East Siberian seas (1921–25) with Maud yielded vast amounts of published scientific material on meteorology, terrestrial magnetism, geology, palaeontology, oceanography, ethnography, zoology and botany, which, though celebrated at the time, have since received scant recognition in more recent assessments of Amundsen’s achievements. Keywords: Fridtjof Nansen; polar exploration; South Pole; North-west Passage; North-east Passage; H.U. Sverdrup.

At Dome Argus, East Antarctica, the surface mass balance (SMB) from 2008 to 2013 was evaluated using 49 stakes installed across a 30×30 km area. Spatial analysis showed that at least 12 and 20 stakes are needed to obtain reliable estimates of SMB at local scales (a few hundred square metres) and regional scales (tens of square kilometres), respectively. The estimated annual mean SMB was 22.9±5.9 kg m−2 yr−1, including a net loss by sublimation of −2.22±0.02 kg m−2 yr−1 and a mass gain by deposition of 1.37±0.01 kg m−2 yr−1. Therefore, ca. 14.3% of precipitation was modified after deposition, which should be considered when interpreting snow or ice core records produced by future drilling projects. The surface snow density and SMB in the western portion of Dome Argus are higher than in other areas, and these differences are likely related to the katabatic wind, which is strengthened by topography in this sector. A new digital elevation model (DEM) of Dome Argus was generated, confirming that both peaks of the dome can be considered as the summit of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Findings from this study should be valuable for validating SMB estimates obtained from regional climate models and DEMs established using remote-sensing data. Keywords: Snow accumulation; Kunlun Station; CHINARE; digital elevation model; deep ice core sites; East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100.

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

The main aim of this paper is to explore the potential of combining measurements from fixed- and rotary-wing remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) to complement data sets from radio soundings as well as ship and sea-ice-based instrumentation for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) profiling. This study represents a proof-of-concept of RPAS observations in the Antarctic sea-ice zone. We present first results from the RV Polarstern Antarctic winter expedition in the Weddell Sea in June–August 2013, during which three RPAS were operated to measure temperature, humidity and wind; a fixed-wing small unmanned meteorological observer (SUMO), a fixed-wing meteorological mini-aerial vehicle, and an advanced mission and operation research quadcopter. A total of 86 RPAS flights showed a strongly varying ABL structure ranging from slightly unstable temperature stratification near the surface to conditions with strong surface-based temperature inversions. The RPAS observations supplement the regular upper air soundings and standard meteorological measurements made during the campaign. The SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles agree very well and, excluding cases with strong temperature inversions, 70% of the variance in the difference between the SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles can be explained by natural, temporal, temperature fluctuations. Strong temperature inversions cause the largest differences, which are induced by SUMO’s high climb rates and slow sensor response. Under such conditions, the quadcopter, with its slower climb rate and faster sensor, is very useful in obtaining accurate temperature profiles in the lowest 100 m above the sea ice. Keywords: Remotely piloted aircraft systems; unmanned aerial vehicles; Weddell Sea; polar meteorology; Antarctic; boundary layer meteorology.

Abstract Modeling results have suggested that the circulation of the stratosphere and mesosphere in spring is strongly affected by the perturbations in heating induced by the Antarctic ozone hole. Here using both mesospheric MF radar wind observations from Rothera Antarctica (67°S, 68°W) as well as stratospheric analysis data, we present observational evidence that the stratospheric and mesospheric wind strengths are highly anti-correlated, and show their largest variability in November. We find that these changes are related to the total amount of ozone loss that occurs during the Antarctic spring ozone hole and particularly with the ozone gradients that develop between 57.5°S and 77.5°S. The results show that with increasing ozone loss during spring, winter conditions in the stratosphere and mesosphere persist longer into the summer. These results are discussed in the light of observations of the onset and duration of the Antarctic polar mesospheric cloud season.