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We are in a period of rapidly accelerating change across the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean, with land ice loss leading to sea level rise and multiple other climate impacts. The ice-ocean interactions that dominate the current ice loss signal are a key underdeveloped area of knowledge. The paucity of direct and continuous observations leads to high uncertainty in the glaciological, oceanographic and atmospheric fields required to constrain ice-ocean interactions, and there is a lack of standardised protocols for reconciling observations across different platforms and technologies and modelled outputs. Funding to support observational campaigns is under increasing pressure, including for long-term, internationally coordinated monitoring plans for the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean. In this Practice Bridge article, we outline research priorities highlighted by the international ice-ocean community and propose the development of a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION), using a combined observational-modelling approach, to address these issues. Finally, we propose an implementation plan for putting FUSION into practice by focusing first on an essential variable in ice-ocean interactions: ocean-driven ice shelf melt.

During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Open-ocean polynyas effectively couple the ocean and atmosphere through large ice-free areas within the sea-ice cover, release vast quantities of oceanic heat, and impact deep ocean ventilation. Changes in polynya activity, particularly in the Weddell Sea, may be key to longer time-scale climate fluctuations, feedbacks and abrupt change. While changes in the occurrence of Weddell Sea polynyas are generally attributed to changes in the atmospheric surface forcing, the role of internal ocean dynamics for polynya variability is not well-resolved. In this study we employ a global coupled ocean-sea ice model with a repeating annual atmospheric cycle to explore changes in Weddell Sea water mass properties, stratification and ocean circulation driven by open-ocean polynyas. During the 1300-year long simulation, two large polynyas occur in the central Weddell Sea. Our results suggest that Weddell polynyas may be triggered without inter-annual changes in the atmospheric forcing. This highlights the role of ocean processes in preconditioning and triggering open-ocean polynyas on multi-centennial time-scales. The simulated polynyas form due to internal ocean-sea ice dynamics associated with a slow build-up and subsequent release of subsurface heat. A strong stratification and weak vertical mixing is necessary for building the subsurface heat reservoir. Once the water column turns unstable, enhanced vertical mixing of warm and saline waters into the surface layer causes efficient sea ice melt and the polynya appears. Subsequent, vigorous deep convection is maintained through upwelling of warm deep water leading to enhanced bottom water formation. We find a cessation of simulated deep convection and polynya activity due to long-term cooling and freshening of the subsurface heat reservoir. As subsurface waters in the Southern Ocean are now becoming warmer and saltier, we speculate that larger and more persistent Weddell polynyas could become more frequent in the future.

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The ocean's ability to take up and store CO2 is a key factor for understanding past and future climate variability. However, qualitative and quantitative understanding of surface-to-interior pathways, and how the ocean circulation affects the CO2 uptake, is limited. Consequently, how changes in ocean circulation may influence carbon uptake and storage and therefore the future climate remains ambiguous. Here we quantify the roles played by ocean circulation and various water masses in the meridional redistribution of carbon. We do so by calculating streamfunctions defined in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and latitude coordinates, using output from a coupled biogeochemical-physical model. By further separating DIC into components originating from the solubility pump and a residual including the biological pump, air-sea disequilibrium, and anthropogenic CO2, we are able to distinguish the dominant pathways of how carbon enters particular water masses. With this new tool, we show that the largest meridional carbon transport occurs in a pole-to-equator transport in the subtropical gyres in the upper ocean. We are able to show that this pole-to-equator DIC transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)-related DIC transport are mainly driven by the solubility pump. By contrast, the DIC transport associated with deep circulation, including that in Antarctic bottom water and Pacific deep water, is mostly driven by the biological pump. As these two pumps, as well as ocean circulation, are widely expected to be impacted by anthropogenic changes, these findings have implications for the future role of the ocean as a climate-buffering carbon reservoir.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

Mixing by mesoscale eddies profoundly impacts climate and ecosystems by redistributing and storing dissolved tracers such as heat and carbon. Eddy mixing is parameterized in most numerical models of the ocean and climate. To reduce known sensitivity to such parameterizations, observational estimates of mixing are needed. However, logistical and technological limitations obstruct our ability to measure global time-varying mixing rates. Here, we extend mixing length theory with mean-flow suppression theory, and first surface modes, to estimate mixing from readily available observational-based climatological data, of salinity, temperature, pressure, and eddy kinetic energy at the sea surface. The resulting full-depth global maps of eddy mixing can reproduce the few available direct estimates and confirm the importance of mean-flow suppression of mixing. The results also emphasize the significant effect of eddy surface intensification and its relation to the vertical density stratification. These new insights in mixing dynamics will improve future mesoscale eddy mixing parameterizations.

To investigate the role of tides in Weddell Sea ocean-ice shelf melt interactions, and resulting consequences for ocean properties and sea ice interactions, we develop a regional ocean-sea ice model configuration, with time-varying ocean boundary and atmospheric forcing, including the deep open ocean (at 2.5–4 km horizontal resolution), the southwestern continental shelf (≈2.5 km), and the adjacent cavities of eastern Weddell, Larsen, and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves (FRIS, 1.5–2.5 km). Simulated circulation, water mass, and ice shelf melt properties compare overall well with available open ocean and cavity observational knowledge. Tides are shown to enhance the kinetic energy of the time-varying flow in contact with the ice shelves, thereby increasing melt. This dynamically driven impact of tides on net melting is to almost 90% compensated by cooling through the meltwater that is produced but not quickly exported from regions of melting in the Weddell Sea cold-cavity regime. The resulting systematic tide-driven enhancement of both produced meltwater and its refreezing on ascending branches of, especially the FRIS, cavity circulation acts to increase net ice shelf melting (by 50% in respect to the state without tides, ≈50 Gt yr−1). In addition, tides also increase the melt-induced FRIS cavity circulation, and the meltwater export by the FRIS outflow. Simulations suggest attendant changes on the open-ocean southwestern continental shelf, characterized by overall freshening and small year-round sea ice thickening, as well as in the deep southwestern Weddell Sea in the form of a marked freshening of newly formed bottom waters.

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite was launched on 13 October 2017 to provide the atmospheric composition for atmosphere and climate research. The S5P is a Sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellite providing global daily coverage. The TROPOMI swath is 2600 km wide, and the ground resolution for most data products is 7.2×3.5 km2 (5.6×3.5 km2 since 6 August 2019) at nadir. The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) is responsible for the development of the TROPOMI UV algorithm and the processing of the TROPOMI surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation product which includes 36 UV parameters in total. Ground-based data from 25 sites located in arctic, subarctic, temperate, equatorial and Antarctic areas were used for validation of the TROPOMI overpass irradiance at 305, 310, 324 and 380 nm, overpass erythemally weighted dose rate/UV index, and erythemally weighted daily dose for the period from 1 January 2018 to 31 August 2019. The validation results showed that for most sites 60 %–80 % of TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based data for snow-free surface conditions. The median relative differences to ground-based measurements of TROPOMI snow-free surface daily doses were within ±10 % and ±5 % at two-thirds and at half of the sites, respectively. At several sites more than 90 % of cloud-free TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based measurements. Generally median relative differences between TROPOMI data and ground-based measurements were a little biased towards negative values (i.e. satellite data < ground-based measurement), but at high latitudes where non-homogeneous topography and albedo or snow conditions occurred, the negative bias was exceptionally high: from −30 % to −65 %. Positive biases of 10 %–15 % were also found for mountainous sites due to challenging topography. The TROPOMI surface UV radiation product includes quality flags to detect increased uncertainties in the data due to heterogeneous surface albedo and rough terrain, which can be used to filter the data retrieved under challenging conditions.

Current global warming is causing significant changes in snowfall in polar regions, directly impacting the mass balance of the ice caps. The only water supply in Antarctica, precipitation, is poorly estimated from surface measurements. The onboard cloud-profiling radar of the CloudSat satellite provided the first real opportunity to estimate solid precipitation at continental scale. Based on CloudSat observations, we propose to explore the vertical structure of precipitation in Antarctica over the 2007–2010 period. A first division of this data set following a topographical approach (continent vs. peripheral regions, with a 2,250 m topographical criterion) shows a high snowfall rate (275 mm yr at 1,200 m above ground level) with low relative seasonal variation ( ) over the peripheral areas. Over the plateau, the snowfall rate is low (34 mm yr at 1,200 m above ground level) with a much larger relative seasonal variation ( ). A second study that follows a geographical division highlights the average vertical structure of precipitation and temperature depending on the regions and their interactions with topography. In particular, over ice shelves, we see a strong dependence of the distribution of snowfall on the sea ice coverage. Finally, the relationship between precipitation and temperature is analyzed and compared with a simple analytical relationship. This study highlights that precipitation is largely dependent on the advection of air masses along the topographic slopes with an average vertical wind of 0.02 m s . This provides new diagnostics to evaluate climate models with a three-dimensional approach of the atmospheric structure of precipitation.

Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) is an important source of polar nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the upper atmosphere. During winter, mesospheric NOx has a long chemical lifetime and is transported to the stratosphere by the mean meridional circulation. Climate change is expected to accelerate this circulation and therefore increase polar mesospheric descent rates. We investigate the Southern Hemispheric polar NOx distribution during the 21st century under a variety of future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We simulate stronger polar mesospheric descent in all future scenarios that increase the atmospheric radiative forcing. Polar NOx in the upper stratosphere is significantly enhanced in two future scenarios with the largest increase in radiative forcing. This indicates that the ozone depleting NOx cycle will become more important in the future, especially if stratospheric chlorine species decline. Thus, EEP-related atmospheric effects may become more prominent in the future.

The Southern Ocean is chronically undersampled due to its remoteness, harsh environment, and sea ice cover. Ocean circulation models yield significant insight into key processes and to some extent obviate the dearth of data; however, they often underestimate surface mixed layer depth (MLD), with consequences for surface water-column temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentration. In this study, a coupled circulation and sea ice model was implemented for the region adjacent to the West Antarctic Peninsula, a climatically sensitive region which has exhibited decadal trends towards higher ocean temperature, shorter sea ice season, and increasing glacial freshwater input, overlain by strong interannual variability. Hindcast simulations were conducted with different air-ice drag coefficients and Langmuir circulation parameterizations to determine the impact of these factors on MLD. Including Langmuir circulation deepened the surface mixed layer, with the deepening being more pronounced in the shelf and slope regions. Optimal selection of an air-ice drag coefficient also increased modeled MLD by similar amounts and had a larger impact in improving the reliability of the simulated MLD interannual variability. This study highlights the importance of sea ice volume and redistribution to correctly reproduce the physics of the underlying ocean, and the potential of appropriately parameterizing Langmuir circulation to help correct for biases towards shallow MLD in the Southern Ocean. The model also reproduces observed freshwater patterns in the West Antarctic Peninsula during late summer and suggests that areas of intense summertime sea ice melt can still show net annual freezing due to high sea ice formation during the winter.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pCO2) varied on millennial timescales in phase with Antarctic temperature during the last glacial period. A prevailing view has been that carbon release and uptake by the Southern Ocean dominated this millennial-scale variability in pCO2. Here, using Earth System Model experiments with an improved parameterization of ocean vertical mixing, we find a major role for terrestrial and oceanic carbon releases in driving the pCO2 trend. In our simulations, a change in Northern Hemisphere insolation weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leading to increasing pCO2 and Antarctic temperatures. The simulated rise in pCO2 is caused in equal parts by increased CO2 outgassing from the global ocean due to a reduced biological activity and changed ventilation rates, and terrestrial carbon release as a response to southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The simulated terrestrial release of carbon could explain stadial declines in organic carbon reservoirs observed in recent ice core δ13C measurements. Our results show that parallel variations in Antarctic temperature and pCO2 do not necessitate that the Southern Ocean dominates carbon exchange; instead, changes in carbon flux from the global ocean and land carbon reservoirs can explain the observed pCO2 (and δ13C) changes.

The buttressing potential of ice shelves is modulated by changes in subshelf melting, in response to changing ocean conditions. We analyze the temporal variability in subshelf melting using an autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder near the grounding line of the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. When combined with additional oceanographic evidence of seasonal variations in the stratification and the amplification of diurnal tides around the shelf break topography (Gunnerus Bank), the results suggest an intricate mechanism in which topographic waves control the seasonal melt rate variability near the grounding line. This mechanism has not been considered before and has the potential to enhance local melt rates without advecting different water masses. As topographic waves seem to strengthen in a stratified ocean, the freshening of Antarctic surface water, predicted by observations and models, is likely to increase future basal melting in this area.

The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China. This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983–2015. The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO, failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO, with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index (AAOI). Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals, we firstly establish a dynamical–statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI (DY AAOI), with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice. This dynamical–statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983–2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation. Then, we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI. The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coefficient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983–2015. Moreover, the unrealistic atmospheric response to March–April–May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO. This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction.

The Belgica expedition, which left Belgium in August 1897, was the first to spend 13 months continuously in Antarctic waters, before returning in late 1899. This was not only an exploratory venture, as new lands and oceans were charted, but more importantly it was an exceptional and successful scientific voyage. After the return of the expedition, a vast array of scientific data was processed and eventually 92 publications in some nine volumes funded by the Belgica Commission appeared over 40 years as a series called Résultats du voyage de la Belgica en 1897–99 sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery – rapports scientifiques. Disappointingly, those significant results have been mostly ignored in the scientific literature and the paper here aims to inform scientists of the achievements of the Belgica expedition and where to obtain the information. Many of the climatological and oceanographic data obtained by the expeditioners ought to be examined in line with the changes that are occurring today in the Antarctic Peninsula region as a result of global warming. Some of the Belgica data form an important database to critically assess environmental changes over 120 years in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula.

The Inverse Gaussian approximation of transit time distribution method (IG-TTD) is widely used to infer the anthropogenic carbon (Cant) concentration in the ocean from measurements of transient tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Its accuracy relies on the validity of several assumptions, notably (i) a steady state ocean circulation, (ii) a prescribed age tracer saturation history, e.g., a constant 100% saturation, (iii) a prescribed constant degree of mixing in the ocean, (iv) a constant surface ocean air-sea CO2 disequilibrium with time, and (v) that preformed alkalinity can be sufficiently estimated by salinity or salinity and temperature. Here, these assumptions are evaluated using simulated “model-truth” of Cant. The results give the IG-TTD method a range of uncertainty from 7.8% to 13.6% (11.4 Pg C to 19.8 Pg C) due to above assumptions, which is about half of the uncertainty derived in previous model studies. Assumptions (ii), (iv) and (iii) are the three largest sources of uncertainties, accounting for 5.5%, 3.8% and 3.0%, respectively, while assumptions (i) and (v) only contribute about 0.6% and 0.7%. Regionally, the Southern Ocean contributes the largest uncertainty, of 7.8%, while the North Atlantic contributes about 1.3%. Our findings demonstrate that spatial-dependency of , and temporal changes in tracer saturation and air-sea CO2 disequilibrium have strong compensating effect on the estimated Cant. The values of these parameters should be quantified to reduce the uncertainty of IG-TTD; this is increasingly important under a changing ocean climate.

A climatically induced acceleration in ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves would have consequences for both the discharge of continental ice into the ocean and thus global sea level, and for the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and the oceanic meridional overturning circulation. Using a novel gas-tight in situ water sampler, noble gas samples have been collected from six locations beneath the Filchner Ice Shelf, the first such samples from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. Helium and neon are uniquely suited as tracers of glacial meltwater in the ocean. Basal meltwater fractions range from 3.6% near the ice shelf base to 0.5% near the sea floor, with distinct regional differences. We estimate an average basal melt rate for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf of 177 ± 95 Gt/year, independently confirming previous results. We calculate that up to 2.7% of the meltwater has been refrozen, and we identify a local source of crustal helium.