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To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

We report in situ atmospheric measurements of hydrofluorocarbon HFC-43-10mee (C5H2F10; 1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,5,5-decafluoropentane) from seven observatories at various latitudes, together with measurements of archived air samples and recent Antarctic flask air samples. The global mean tropospheric abundance was 0.21 ± 0.05 ppt (parts per trillion, dry air mole fraction) in 2012, rising from 0.04 ± 0.03 ppt in 2000. We combine the measurements with a model and an inverse method to estimate rising global emissions—from 0.43 ± 0.34 Gg yr−1 in 2000 to 1.13 ± 0.31 Gg yr−1 in 2012 (~1.9 Tg CO2-eq yr−1 based on a 100 year global warming potential of 1660). HFC-43-10mee—a cleaning solvent used in the electronics industry—is currently a minor contributor to global radiative forcing relative to total HFCs; however, our calculated emissions highlight a significant difference from the available reported figures and projected estimates.

This article investigates the annual cycle observed in the Antarctic baseline aerosol scattering coefficient, total particle number concentration, and particle number size distribution (PNSD), as measured at Troll Atmospheric Observatory. Mie theory shows that the annual cycles in microphysical and optical aerosol properties have a common cause. By comparison with observations at other Antarctic stations, it is shown that the annual cycle is not a local phenomenon, but common to central Antarctic baseline air masses. Observations of ground-level ozone at Troll as well as backward plume calculations for the air masses arriving at Troll demonstrate that the baseline air masses originate from the free troposphere and lower stratosphere region, and descend over the central Antarctic continent. The Antarctic summer PNSD is dominated by particles with diameters <100 nm recently formed from the gas-phase despite the absence of external sources of condensible gases. The total particle volume in Antarctic baseline aerosol is linearly correlated with the integral insolation the aerosol received on its transport pathway, and the photooxidative production of particle volume is mostly limited by photooxidative capacity, not availability of aerosol precursor gases. The photooxidative particle volume formation rate in central Antarctic baseline air is quantified to 207 ±4 μm3/(MJ m). Further research is proposed to investigate the applicability of this number to other atmospheric reservoirs, and to use the observed annual cycle in Antarctic baseline aerosol properties as a benchmark for the representation of natural atmospheric aerosol processes in climate models.

An ongoing challenge in attributing anthropogenic climate change is to distinguish anthropogenic and natural changes of atmospheric composition, e.g. concerning atmospheric aerosol and its climate effects. Aerosol properties measured at pristine locations, to the extend they still exist, can serve as a climate model benchmark for verifying the representation of natural aerosol processes in the model.

The effects of nunataks on temperature profiles and wind patterns are studied using simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Simulations are compared to hourly observations from an automatic weather station located at the Troll Research Station in Dronning Maud Land. Areas of bare ground have been implemented in the model, and the simulations correspond well with meteorological measurements acquired during the 4 day simulation period. The nunataks are radiatively heated during daytime, and free convection occurs in the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. The inflow below the updraft forces strong horizontal convergence at the surface, whereas weaker divergence appears aloft. In a control run with a completely ice-covered surface, the convection is absent. In situ observations carried out by a remotely controlled balloon and a small model airplane compare well with model temperature profiles, but these are only available over the ice field upwind to the nunatak.

Antarctic sea ice areas have only been the main focus for a few studies combining observations and three-dimensional atmospheric model experiments. This study presents simulations over the Weddell Sea in early summer, applying the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF). The results are compared against observations from the drifting experiment Ice Station Polarstern, which took place on 28 November 2004?2 January 2005. The Polar WRF model showed good skill in simulating synoptic-scale variations. The diurnal cycles of surface variables were reproduced, but the amplitude was overestimated for most of the variables and the simulations were characterized by a cold temperature bias at night. The major challenges related to the modelling of the atmosphere over Antarctic sea ice were found to be associated with clouds, atmospheric boundary-layer processes and processes in the sea ice and snow layer. Temporal variations in the errors in cloud cover generated large errors in long-wave radiation fluxes. In the boundary layer, the overestimated downward sensible heat flux was partly compensated for by the underestimated downward long-wave radiation at the surface. The underestimated downward long-wave flux started to dominate as the stability increased and generated the cold temperature bias at the surface. Problems with the surface energy balance, as found in this study, could be reduced by applying more advanced schemes for snow and ice thermodynamics.

A first long-term monitoring of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Antarctic air has been conducted at the Norwegian research station Troll (Dronning Maud Land). As target contaminants 32 PCB congeners, α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), trans- and cis-chlordane, trans- and cis-nonachlor, p,p'- and o,p-DDT, DDD, DDE as well as hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were selected. The monitoring program with weekly samples taken during the period 2007–2010 was coordinated with the parallel program at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring site (Zeppelin mountain, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard) in terms of priority compounds, sampling schedule as well as analytical methods. The POP concentration levels found in Antarctica were considerably lower than Arctic atmospheric background concentrations. Similar to observations for Arctic samples, HCB is the predominant POP compound, with levels of around 22 pg m−3 throughout the entire monitoring period. In general, the following concentration distribution was found for the Troll samples analyzed: HCB > Sum HCH > Sum PCB > Sum DDT > Sum chlordanes. Atmospheric long-range transport was identified as a major contamination source for POPs in Antarctic environments. Several long-range transport events with elevated levels of pesticides and/or compounds with industrial sources were identified based on retroplume calculations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART).

We report ground-based measurements of the polar middle atmosphere made using a 230–250 GHz passive microwave radiometer deployed at Troll station (72°01′S 02°32′E, L shell of L = 4.8), Antarctica. Our observations show enhanced mesospheric nitric oxide (NO) volume mixing ratio (VMR) during a series of small recurrent geomagnetic storms in the 2008 austral winter, reaching 1.2 ppmv on day 200 (18 July). The Lomb normalized periodogram of the NO VMR time series averaged over 65-80 km for days 130 to 220 of 2008 (9 May to 7 August) shows a peak exceeding the 95% confidence limit at 25.8 days, close to the synodic rotation period for low-latitude solar coronal holes. The highest correlations between the radiometer NO VMR data and trapped and quasi-trapped electron count rates for L = 3.5-5.5 from the Polar Orbiting Environment Satellites 90° telescope are for the >30 keV (90e1) channel (rmax = 0.56, lag time of 5.1 days) and >100 keV (90e2) channel (rmax = 0.57, lag time of 4.4 days). Maximum correlation between NO VMR and the >700 keV (90P6) channel data is lower but lag times are close to zero. Superposed epoch analyses for the eight most significant geomagnetic storm periods and three Carrington rotations (2070-2072) within the 90 day observation period indicate that significant NO abundance observed at 65-80 km in the Antarctic mesosphere may be produced directly by >200 keV electron precipitation or originate from a source at higher altitudes, e.g., production by >30 keV electrons followed by downward transport.

In this study, we present evidence that Antarctic and Arctic sea ice act as sink for atmospheric CO2 during periods of snowmelt and surface flooding. The CO2 flux measured directly at the flooded sea ice surface (Fflood) constituted a net CO2 sink of −1.1 ± 0.9 mmol C m−2 d−1 (mean ± 1 SD), which was an order of magnitude higher than the flux measured at the snow-air surface (Fsnow) and bare ice surface (Fice). The Fsnow/Fflood ratio decreased with increasing water equivalent of snow and superimposed-ice, suggesting that the properties of snow and superimposed-ice formation affect the magnitude of the CO2 flux. The Fsnow/Fflood ratio ranged from 0.1 to 0.5, illustrating that 50–90% of the potential flux at the flooded surface was reduced due to the presence of snow/superimposed-ice. Hence, snow cover properties and superimposed-ice play an important role in the CO2 fluxes across the sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface.

Brominated diphenyl ethers (BDE47, 99, 100, and 209) were measured in air, snow and sea ice throughout western Antarctica between 2001 and 2007. BDEs in Antarctic air were predominantly associated with aerosols and were low compared to those in remote regions of the northern hemisphere, except in Marguerite Bay following the fire at Rothera research station in Sept 2001, indicating that this event was a local source of BDE209 to the Antarctic environment. Aerosol BDE47/100 reflects a mixture of commercial pentaBDE products; however, BDE99/100 is suggestive of photodegradation of BDE99 during long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT) in the austral summer. BDEs in snow were lower than predicted based on snow scavenging of aerosols indicating that atmospheric deposition events may be episodic. BDE47, -99, and -100 significantly declined in Antarctic sea ice between 2001 and 2007; however, BDE209 did not decline in Antarctic sea ice over the same time period. Significant losses of BDE99 and -100 from sea ice were recorded over a 19 day period in spring 2001 demonstrating that seasonal ice processes result in the preferential loss of some BDEs. BDE47/100 and BDE99/100 in sea ice samples reflect commercial pentaBDE products, suggesting that photodegradation of BDE99 is minimal during LRAT in the austral winter.

Long term atmospheric mercury measurements in the Southern Hemisphere are scarce and in Antarctica completely absent. Recent studies have shown that the Antarctic continent plays an important role in the global mercury cycle. Therefore, long term measurements of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) were initiated at the Norwegian Antarctic Research Station, Troll (TRS) in order to improve our understanding of atmospheric transport, transformation and removal processes of GEM. GEM measurements started in February 2007 and are still ongoing, and this paper presents results from the first four years. The mean annual GEM concentration of 0.93 ± 0.19 ng m−3 is in good agreement with other recent southern-hemispheric measurements. Measurements of GEM were combined with the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, for a statistical analysis of GEM source and sink regions. It was found that the ocean is a source of GEM to TRS year round, especially in summer and fall. On time scales of up to 20 days, there is little direct transport of GEM to TRS from Southern Hemisphere continents, but sources there are important for determining the overall GEM load in the Southern Hemisphere and for the mean GEM concentration at TRS. Further, the sea ice and marginal ice zones are GEM sinks in spring as also seen in the Arctic, but the Antarctic oceanic sink seems weaker. Contrary to the Arctic, a strong summer time GEM sink was found, when air originates from the Antarctic plateau, which shows that the summertime removal mechanism of GEM is completely different and is caused by other chemical processes than the springtime atmospheric mercury depletion events. The results were corroborated by an analysis of ozone source and sink regions.

As part of the 2009 Operation Ice Bridge campaign, the NASA DC-8 aircraft was used to fill the data-time gap in laser observation of the changes in ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice between ICESat-I (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) and ICESat-II. Complementing the cryospheric instrument payload were four in situ atmospheric sampling instruments integrated onboard to measure trace gas concentrations of CO2, CO, N2O, CH4, water vapor and various VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds). This paper examines two plumes encountered at high altitude (12 km) during the campaign; one during a southbound transit flight (13°S) and the other at 86°S over Antarctica. The data presented are especially significant as the Southern Hemisphere is heavily under-sampled during the austral spring, with few if any high-resolution airborne observations of atmospheric gases made over Antarctica. Strong enhancements of CO, CH4, N2O, CHCl3, OCS, C2H6, C2H2 and C3H8 were observed in the two intercepted air masses that exhibited variations in VOC composition suggesting different sources. The transport model FLEXPART showed that the 13°S plume contained predominately biomass burning emissions originating from Southeast Asia and South Africa, while both anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were observed at 86°S with South America and South Africa as indicated source regions. The data presented here show evidence that boundary layer pollution is transported from lower latitudes toward the upper troposphere above the South Pole, which may not have been observed in the past.

The primary input of Persistent Organic Pollutant (POP) contamination to the Antarctic is expected to be via Long Range Atmospheric Transport (LRAT) from emissions in neighboring Southern hemisphere nations In addition to LRAT, system input of POPs must increasingly consider alternate pathways Human activity in the Antarctic represents a potential direct source of both legacy and current-use chemicals It has been two decades since the organic chemical composition of air masses arriving in the Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT), which spans the majority of the eastern Antarctic sector, was last investigated Here we present the first atmospheric measurements made as part of a new continuous monitoring effort at Casey station (66°17’ S 110°31’ E), one of Australia’s all-year research stations The results are evaluated alongside POP contamination data of soil samples collected around the Casey station perimeter and the respective sample profiles are assessed for clues as to local and distant contamination sources Results suggest a potential local source of the currently produced, involatile, deca-brominated PBDE congener 209 which contributed substantially to PBDE profiles of all samples Profiles of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and rganochlorine pesticides on the other hand primarilly support LRAT as the primary input pathway of these contaminants, whilst a dominance of endosulfan in air samples evidences its ongoing application in the southern hemisphere.

We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during the glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories, which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models.

We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH3CF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF3CHFCF3, 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF3CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only ∼1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10−12) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to ∼0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr−1 at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in ∼2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr−1, HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr−1), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (∼2005–2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr−1 and 0.18 kt yr−1 over the 2008–2010 period, respectively.

The horizontal wind data from the standard version of Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS) for the years 2006–2008 are analyzed to obtain the global structure and seasonal variability of the semidiurnal tide (SDT) in the mesosphere. The modeled amplitudes and phases of the SDTs at single stations from middle/high northern latitudes are quite similar to those observed by radars. The primary nonmigrating tides identified in both the meridional wind and zonal wind semidiurnal spectra at 88 km include the westward propagating wave numbers s = 1 (SW1), 3 (SW3), 4 (SW4), 6 (SW6), the standing s = 0 (S0), and the eastward propagating s = 2 (SE2). The migrating SDT (SW2) amplitude maxima usually occur at 40°N–60°N during December–February and August–September, and also at 40°S–60°S in April–May, with the dominance of (2, 4) during October–April and (2, 3) and (2, 5) dominance for other months. The CMAM-DAS is quite successful in reproducing the dominance of SW1 in the Antarctic summer mesosphere. The modeled SW1 shows very good overall agreement in both amplitude and phase with wind measurements from UARS High Resolution Doppler Imager and Wind Imaging Interferometer (UARS-HRDI/WINDII) and from TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI). The CMAM-DAS analyses for SW3, SW4, SW6, and S0 are also in reasonable agreement with those determined from the HRDI/WINDII or TIDI wind measurements. This work provides further evidence for the tidal forcing from below.

Clouds and the Earth's radiant energy system (CERES) is a satellite-based remote sensing system designed to monitor the Earth's radiation budget. In this paper we examine uncertainties in the angular distribution models (ADMs) used by CERES over permanently snow covered surfaces with clear skies. These ADMs are a key part of the CERES data processing algorithms, used to convert the observed upwelling radiance to an estimate of the upwelling hemispheric flux. We model top-of-atmosphere anisotropic reflectance factors using an atmospheric radiative transfer model with a lower boundary condition based on extensive reflectance observations made at Dome C, Antarctica. The model results and subsequent analysis show that the CERES operational clear-sky permanent-snow ADMs are appropriate for use over Dome C, with differences of less than 5% between the model results and the ADMs at most geometries used by CERES operationally. We show that the uncertainty introduced into the flux estimates through the use of the modeled radiances used in the ADM development is small when the fluxes are averaged over time and space. Finally, we show that variations in the angular distribution of radiance at the top of the atmosphere due to atmospheric variability over permanently snow covered regions are in most cases unlikely to mask the real variations in flux caused by these atmospheric variations.

Spectral albedo and bidirectional reflectance of snow were measured at Dome C on the East Antarctic Plateau for wavelengths of 350–2400 nm and solar zenith angles of 52°–87°. A parameterization of bidirectional reflectance, based on those measurements, is used as the lower boundary condition in the atmospheric radiation model SBDART to calculate radiance and flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). The model's atmospheric profile is based on radiosoundings at Dome C and ozonesoundings at the South Pole. Computed TOA radiances are integrated over wavelength for comparison with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) shortwave channel. CERES radiance observations and flux estimates from four clear days in January 2004 and January 2005 from within 200 km of Dome C are compared with the TOA radiances and fluxes computed for the same solar zenith angle and viewing geometry, providing 11,000 comparisons. The measured radiance and flux are lower than the computed values. The median difference is about 7% for CERES on Terra, and 9% on Aqua. Sources of uncertainty in the model and observations are examined in detail and suggest that the measured values should be less than the computed values, but only by 1.7% ± 4%. The source of the discrepancy of about 6% cannot be identified here; however, the modeled values do agree with observations from another satellite instrument (Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer), suggesting that the CERES calibration must be considered a possible source of the discrepancy.

Sea ice plays a crucial role in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere, and areas of intense air-sea-ice interaction are important sites for water mass modification. The Weddell Sea is one of these sites where a relatively thin first-year ice cover is constantly being changed by mixing of heat from below and stress exerted from the rapidly changing and intense winds. This study presents mixed layer turbulence measurements obtained during two wintertime drift stations in August 2005 in the eastern Weddell Sea, close to the Maud Rise seamount. Turbulence in the boundary layer is found to be controlled by the drifting ice. Directly measured heat fluxes compare well with previous studies and are well estimated from the mixed layer temperatures and mixing. Heat fluxes are also found to roughly balance the conductive heat flux in the ice; hence, little freezing/melting was observed. The under-ice topography is estimated to be hydraulically very smooth; comparison with a steady 1-D model shows that these estimates are made too close to the ice-ocean interface to be representative for the entire ice floe. The main source and sink of turbulent kinetic energy are shear production and dissipation. Observations indicate that the dynamics of the under-ice boundary layer are influenced by a horizontal variability in mixed layer density and an increasing amount of open leads in the area.

The Troll Atmospheric Station in Antarctica (72°01'S, 2°32'E, 1309 m a.s.l.) was established and put into operation in early 2007. The main foci of the measurement programme are pollution and aerosols in the transition zone between the coastal zone and the inland ice plateau, complementing existing observation programmes along the Antarctic coast and on the Antarctic Plateau. After one year of operation, the monitoring programme is fully operative, and a comprehensive set of data is being analysed. As far as comparable data are available, there is satisfactory agreement between previous and new data. Both aerosol data and measurements of pollution indicate the episodic influence of coastal air masses throughout the year. Background values of medium long-lived pollutants such as CO, O3 and Hg are up to 50% lower than at corresponding Arctic sites (depending on the season), but are still significant. Total ozone and UV doses manifest the recurring Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole, which was moderately severe, but very persistent in 2007. Specific episodes of elevated aerosol concentration and mercury activation are currently under detailed investigation, and will be published separately.