Antarktis-bibliografi er en database over den norske Antarktis-litteraturen.

Hensikten med bibliografien er å synliggjøre norsk antarktisforskning og annen virksomhet/historie i det ekstreme sør. Bibliografien er ikke komplett, spesielt ikke for nyere forskning, men den blir oppdatert.

Norsk er her definert som minst én norsk forfatter, publikasjonssted Norge eller publikasjon som har utspring i norsk forskningsprosjekt.

Antarktis er her definert som alt sør for 60 grader. I tillegg har vi tatt med Bouvetøya.

Det er ingen avgrensing på språk (men det meste av innholdet er på norsk eller engelsk). Eldre norske antarktispublikasjoner (den eldste er fra 1894) er dominert av kvalfangst og ekspedisjoner. I nyere tid er det den internasjonale polarforskninga som dominerer. Bibliografien er tverrfaglig; den dekker både naturvitenskapene, politikk, historie osv. Skjønnlitteratur er også inkludert, men ikke avisartikler eller upublisert materiale.

Til høyre finner du en «HELP-knapp» for informasjon om søkemulighetene i databasen. Mange referanser har lett synlige lenker til fulltekstversjon av det aktuelle dokumentet. For de fleste tidsskriftartiklene er det også lagt inn sammendrag.

Bibliografien er produsert ved Norsk Polarinstitutts bibliotek.

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  • The Quaternary climate is characterized by glacial–interglacial cycles, with the most recent transition from the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial (the last deglaciation) occurring between ∼ 21 and 9 ka. While the deglacial warming at high southern latitudes is mostly in phase with atmospheric CO2 concentrations, some proxy records indicate that the onset of the warming occurred before the CO2 increase. In addition, high southern latitudes exhibit a cooling event in the middle of the deglaciation (15–13 ka) known as the “Antarctic Cold Reversal”. In this study, we analyse transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed with six different climate models as part of the 4th phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude surface temperature changes. As the protocol of the last deglaciation sets the choice of freshwater forcing as flexible, the freshwater forcing is different in each model, thus complicating the multi-model comparison. While proxy records from West Antarctica and the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean suggest the presence of an early warming before 18 ka, only half the models show a significant warming at this time (∼ 1 °C or ∼ 10 % of the total deglacial warming). All models simulate a major warming during Heinrich Stadial 1 (18–15 ka), concurrent with the CO2 increase and with a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in some models. However, the simulated Heinrich Stadial 1 warming over Antarctica is smaller than the one suggested from ice core data. During the Antarctic Cold Reversal, simulations with an abrupt AMOC strengthening exhibit a high-southern-latitude cooling of 1 to 2 °C, in relative agreement with proxy records, while simulations with rapid North Atlantic meltwater input exhibit a warming. Using simple models to extract the relative AMOC contribution, we find that all climate models simulate a high-southern-latitude cooling in response to an AMOC increase with a response timescale of several hundred years, suggesting the choice of the North Atlantic meltwater forcing substantially affects high-southern-latitude temperature changes. Thus, further work needs to be carried out to reconcile the deglacial AMOC evolution with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet disintegration and associated meltwater input. Finally, all simulations exhibit only minimal changes in Southern Hemisphere westerlies and Southern Ocean meridional circulation during the last deglaciation. Improved understanding of the processes impacting Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation changes accounting for deglacial atmospheric CO2 increase is needed.

  • The dive profiles of pursuit-diving marine predators are often used to infer foraging behaviour, including potential indicators of prey consumption. ‘Wiggles’ are undulations in dive profiles that relate to foraging activity in a variety of marine predators. In penguins, wiggles are sometimes used as a proxy for prey consumption (e.g., catch per unit effort, CPUE), but this relationship remains poorly validated and likely varies with diet. We deployed animal-borne video cameras and depth recorders on chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarcticus; n = 37) and identified over 17,000 euphausiid prey captures - mainly Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) - during dives deeper than 3 m (n = 2458 dives). Using the video-observed prey captures as a reference, we tested how well various wiggle metrics derived from 1 Hz depth data predicted krill consumption by the penguins. Wiggle metrics generally showed a positive but noisy and highly variable relationship with the number of krill captured per dive, with association strength varying among metrics. While it is tempting to infer detailed foraging behaviours from dive wiggles (including ‘bottom distance’ generated by the R package diveMove), our results show: (1) notable rates of foraging – non-foraging dive misclassification; (2) only moderate agreement between CPUE estimated from wiggle counts and video observations; and (3) imprecise predictive models of actual prey consumption. While wiggle analyses offer some insight into prey consumption of krill-feeding penguins, our results suggest that alternative methods (e.g., acceleration-based indices) are needed to obtain more robust quantitative estimates of prey consumption.

  • The global overturning circulation (GOC) is the largest scale component of the ocean circulation, associated with a global redistribution of key tracers such as heat and carbon. The GOC generates decadal to millennial climate variability, and will determine much of the long-term response to anthropogenic climate perturbations. This review aims at providing an overview of the main controls of the GOC. By controls, we mean processes affecting the overturning structure and variability. We distinguish three main controls: mechanical mixing, convection, and wind pumping. Geography provides an additional control on geological timescales. An important emphasis of this review is to present how the different controls interact with each other to produce an overturning flow, making this review relevant to the study of past, present and future climates as well as to exoplanets’ oceans.

  • Sea ice is a composite solid material that sustains large fracture features at scales from meters to kilometres. These fractures can play an important role in coupled atmosphere-ocean processes. To model these features, brittle sea ice physics, via the Brittle-Bingham-Maxwell (BBM) rheology, has been implemented in the Lagrangian neXt generation Sea Ice Model (neXtSIM). In Arctic-only simulations, the BBM rheology has shown a capacity to represent observationally consistent sea ice fracture patterns and breakup across a wide range of time and length scales. Still, it has not been tested whether this approach is suitable for the modeling of Antarctic sea ice, which is thinner and more seasonal compared to Arctic sea ice, and whether the ability to reproduce sea ice fractures has an impact on simulating Antarctic sea ice properties. Here, we introduce a new 50-km grid-spacing Antarctic configuration of neXtSIM, neXtSIM-Ant, using the BBM rheology. We evaluate this simulation against observations of sea ice extent, drift, and thickness and compare it with identically-forced neXtSIM simulations that use the standard modified Elastic-Visco-Plastic (mEVP) rheology. In general, using BBM results in thicker sea ice and an improved correlation of sea ice drift with observations than mEVP. We suggest that this is related to short-duration breakup events caused by Antarctic storms that are not well-simulated in the viscous-plastic model.

  • Understanding population connectivity in the marine realm is crucial for conserving biodiversity, managing fisheries, and predicting species responses to environmental change. This is particularly important in Antarctic waters, where unique evolutionary histories and extreme conditions shape marine biodiversity. The longfin icedevil Aethotaxis mitopteryx is an elusive notothenioid fish endemic to Antarctic waters. To explore population connectivity in A. mitopteryx, we used RAD-seq to investigate the genetic differentiation of two populations, one from the Eastern Weddell Sea and the other from the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula, two regions of ecological relevance greatly impacted by climate change. Despite spatial separation, analyses revealed no significant genetic differentiation between the two populations, suggesting extensive gene flow. A pronounced genetic distinction was, however, observed between males and females. This differentiation was largely localized to a specific chromosome, implying a genetic sex determination system with males being the heterogametic sex. These findings contribute novel insights into the genetic structure of A. mitopteryx populations and expand our understanding of genetic mechanisms in Antarctic fish. This study provides a foundation for further investigations into the evolutionary and ecological implications of sex chromosome differentiation in extreme environments.

  • Understanding population connectivity in the marine realm is crucial for conserving biodiversity, managing fisheries, and predicting species responses to environmental change. This is particularly important in Antarctic waters, where unique evolutionary histories and extreme conditions shape marine biodiversity. The longfin icedevil Aethotaxis mitopteryx is an elusive notothenioid fish endemic to Antarctic waters. To explore population connectivity in A. mitopteryx, we used RAD-seq to investigate the genetic differentiation of two populations, one from the Eastern Weddell Sea and the other from the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula, two regions of ecological relevance greatly impacted by climate change. Despite spatial separation, analyses revealed no significant genetic differentiation between the two populations, suggesting extensive gene flow. A pronounced genetic distinction was, however, observed between males and females. This differentiation was largely localized to a specific chromosome, implying a genetic sex determination system with males being the heterogametic sex. These findings contribute novel insights into the genetic structure of A. mitopteryx populations and expand our understanding of genetic mechanisms in Antarctic fish. This study provides a foundation for further investigations into the evolutionary and ecological implications of sex chromosome differentiation in extreme environments.

  • The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the world’s strongest ocean current and plays a disproportionate role in the climate system due to its role as a conduit for major ocean basins. This current system is linked to the ocean’s vertical overturning circulation, and is thus pivotal to the uptake of heat and CO2 in the ocean. The strength of the ACC has varied substantially across warm and cold climates in Earth’s past, but the exact dynamical drivers of this change remain elusive. This is in part because ocean models have historically been unable to adequately resolve the small-scale processes that control current strength. Here, we assess a global ocean model simulation which resolves such processes to diagnose the impact of changing thermal, haline and wind conditions on the strength of the ACC. Our results show that, by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario. This decline is driven by meltwater from ice shelves around Antarctica, which is exported to lower latitudes via the Antarctic Intermediate Water. This process weakens the zonal density stratification historically supported by surface temperature gradients, resulting in a slowdown of sub-surface zonal currents. Such a decline in transport, if realised, would have major implications on the global ocean circulation.

  • Massive injection of 13C depleted carbon to the ocean and atmosphere coincided with major environmental upheaval multiple times in the geological record. For several events, the source of carbon has been attributed to explosive venting of gas produced when magmatic sills intruded organic-rich sediment. The concept mostly derives from studies of a few ancient sedimentary basins with numerous hydrothermal vent complexes (HTVCs) where craters appear to have formed across large areas of the seafloor at the same time, but good examples remain rare in strata younger than the Early Eocene. We present geophysical data documenting at least 150 large (km-scale) craters on the modern seafloor across ∼148,000 km2 of Scan Basin in the southern Scotia Sea, a remote region offshore Antarctica. Seismic and bathymetric information reveals the craters relate to vertical fluid pipes extending above dome-shaped forced folds and saucer-shaped igneous sills. Presumably, magmatic intrusions deform overlying sediment and produce thermogenic gas, where buoyant hydrothermal fluids migrate upwards from sill flanks through V-shaped gas chimneys to the seafloor. Fluid expulsion, driven by excess pore pressure, enhances vertical conduits and creates collapse structures on the seafloor. Age estimates for sill emplacement and crater formation come from correlations of seismic reflectors with bore hole data collected on IODP Expedition 382. Sills intruded into sediment at least two times, first about 12–13 Ma (Middle Miocene), which occurred with deep intrusions of stacked composite sills, and once about 0.9 Ma and associated with volcanism along Discovery Bank, which may have reactivated previous fluid venting. Crater reactivation has occurred since 0.9 Ma, although probably episodically. Importantly, at present-day, numerous craters related to sills and fluid pipes populate the seafloor above a young sedimentary basin, and the ocean and atmosphere are receiving massive quantities of 13C depleted carbon. The two phenomena are unrelated but, with changes in global climate and sedimentation, the craters could be filled simultaneously and give an impression in the rock record of rapid and coeval formation coincident with carbon emission. Interpretations of ancient HTVCs and their significance to global carbon cycling needs revision with consideration of modern seafloor regions with HTVCs, notably Scan Basin.

  • The fishery for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is the largest by tonnage in the Southern Ocean, and understanding its population dynamics is essential for the sustainable management of this fishery. The standard method for calculating Antarctic krill biomass relies on hydroacoustic survey data and incorporates krill body length data collected concurrently. Traditional scientific acoustic surveys involve manually measuring the body lengths of individual krill caught using fine- meshed nets or trawls along acoustic transects. This work is resource-demanding and could represent a source of human error. To address these challenges, we develop and test an alternative, more automated method for estimating krill body length data by employing an in-trawl stereo camera system. This system collects images that are automatically processed by a custom-trained machine learning model. The results from the machine learning model are then compared to manually measured krill subsampled from the total catch of the corresponding trawl hauls. We demonstrated the ability to extract body lengths from underwater images. However, our results highlighted uncertainties, which we propose addressing by incorporating more advanced camera technology and optimizing the observation section of the small-meshed two-layer krill trawl.

  • Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are integral to Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystems. Winters with extensive sea ice have been linked to high post-larval krill recruitment the following spring, suggesting that sea ice plays a critical role in larval overwinter survival. As the ocean warms and sea ice declines under climate change, understanding the mechanisms linking sea ice and krill recruitment is increasingly urgent. To address this, we developed a qualitative network model (QNM) that integrates evidence-based and hypothesized interactions to explore larval overwinter survival and growth under future climate scenarios in the southwest Atlantic sector. Our model highlights habitat-specific impacts, with substantial declines predicted for the North Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf due to reduced autumn primary productivity and warming. In contrast, survival may improve in open-ocean habitats under cooler scenarios that enhance sea-ice-associated processes, such as food availability and refuge. The inclusion of hypothesized mechanisms, such as sea-ice terraces providing refuge from predation, strengthened these conclusions and highlighted critical uncertainties, including the influence of glacial melt on food web dynamics. These findings demonstrate the value of QNMs in complementing quantitative approaches, offering a framework for identifying critical mechanisms, addressing knowledge gaps, and guiding future field and laboratory studies to improve predictions of krill responses to climate change.

  • Antarctic krill meal (KM) (Euphausia superba) as a substitute for fishmeal in aquatic animal diets is gaining popularity worldwide. A quantitative approach investigating the efficacy of using this protein on the production performance of aquatic animals remains widely limited. Here, we employed a meta-analysis to quantify the overall effects (Hedges’g [g] value effect size) of KM on the specific growth rate (SGR), feed conversion ratio (FCR), protein efficiency ratio (PER), and survival rate (SR) of several aquaculture species. A total of 22 records published during 2006 to 2022 from different countries, targeting 14 aquatic species, were employed in the present study. Overall, KM has a high nutritional value relative to fishmeal, particularly from the high protein and amino acid composition. Dietary KM significantly increased the overall effect size of SGR (g = 1.92) (P = 0.001); the positive effect was illustrated in marine species (g = 1.32 to 9.10) (P < 0.05) and sturgeon (Acipenser gueldenstaedtii) (g = 6.59) (P < 0.001). The overall g value for FCR (−2.42) was significantly improved compared to the control group (P < 0.001). The inclusion of KM in aquatic animal diets did not affect g value of PER (1.52, 95% confidence interval: −1.04 to 4.07) and survival rate (0.08, 95% confidence interval: −0.63 to 0.79) (P = 0.252 and 0.208, respectively). The meta-regression models indicated that SGR of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was significantly correlated with dietary KM by a positive linear model (P = 0.022). The cod and sturgeon (A. gueldenstaedtii) appeared to efficiently utilize krill-containing diets as illustrated by a negative linear model (P = 0.011 and P = 0.024, respectively) between dietary KM and FCR. Dietary KM positively correlated with PER for Atlantic cod (P = 0.021). Our meta-analysis highlighted the significant outcome of KM in diets for aquaculture species by reducing pressure on forage fish from marine resources and sparing edible foods. Specifically, including KM significantly reduced economic fish-in fish-out (eFIFO) in four taxa—the top forage fish consumers (P < 0.05): marine fish, salmon, shrimp, and trout. The meta-analysis revealed the decreased food-competition feedstuff in diets for important aquaculture species (P < 0.05) fed dietary KM. The outlook for efficient use of KM from marine resources in aquafeeds was elucidated in the present work.

  • Dynamical modeling is widely utilized for Antarctic sea ice prediction. However, the relative impact of initializing different model components remains unclear. We compare three sets of hindcasts of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM), which are initialized by ocean, ocean/sea-ice, or atmosphere data and referred to as the OCN, OCNICE, and ATM hindcasts hereafter. The seasonal cycle of sea ice extent (SIE) in the ATM reanalysis shows a slightly better agreement with observations than the OCN and OCNICE reanalyzes. The trends of sea ice concentration (SIC) in the OCN and OCNICE reanalyzes compare well to observations, but the ATM reanalysis is poor over the western Antarctic. The OCNICE reanalysis yields the most accurate estimation of sea ice variability, while the OCN and ATM reanalyzes are comparable. Evaluation of the hindcasts reveals the predictive skill varies with region and season. Austral winter SIE of the western Antarctic can be skillfully predicted 12 months ahead, while the predictive skill in the eastern Antarctic is low. Austral winter SIE predictability can be largely attributed to high sea surface temperature predictability, thanks to skillful initialization of ocean heat content. The ATM hindcast from July or October performs best due to the effective initialization of sea-ice thickness, which enhances prediction skills until early austral summer via its long memory. Meanwhile, the stratosphere-troposphere coupling contributes to the prediction of springtime. The comparable skill between the OCN and OCNICE hindcasts implies limited benefits from SIC data on prediction when using ocean data.

  • Spatial variations of atmospheric alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (Alk-PAHs) are key to understanding their long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT). However, limited Alk-PAHs data have hindered their LRAT characterizations on a global scale. In this study, 49 Alk-PAHs were measured in the atmospheric samples collected across the Western Pacific to the Southern Ocean. The summed concentration of 39 frequently detected Alk-PAHs (Σ39Alk-PAHs) was 25.8 ± 25.3 ng m–3. The concentrations of Σ39Alk-PAHs significantly declined with the decrease in latitude (°N). Higher concentrations (55.8 ± 33.8 ng m–3) were linked to continental air mass compared to oceanic/Antarctica air mass (17.0 ± 13.6 ng m–3), highlighting continental emissions as the primary source of marine atmospheric Alk-PAHs. An unexpected increase in the G/P partitioning ratio (KP) was found in samples farther away from the continent, which cannot be explained by the influence of temperature on the partitioning process. Deposition analysis suggested that gaseous concentrations and the G/P partitioning largely influenced deposition patterns. Hypothetical scenario analysis indicated that increased KP under snowy conditions could enhance the total Alk-PAH deposition. These findings emphasize the need for accurate characterization of partitioning and deposition processes when studying the global fate of Alk-PAHs, particularly in remote and polar regions.

  • A drifting wave-ice buoy (Medusa-766) was deployed at the Lützow-Holm Bay (LHB) marginal ice zone in Antarctica during the 63rd Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition to study the wave influence on the unstable LHB fast ice. Medusa-766 survived the Antarctic winter as it was located deep in the ice cover with the shortest distance to the ice-free Southern Ocean over 1,000?km; at this time, there was evidence of 8-cm-height wave signal at the buoy position. Using the the ECMWF?s reanalysis wave data, we show that the incoming waves were likely 4-m waves that were generated by an extratropical cyclone in the Southern Ocean. Wave-induced ice breakup potential for this event could extend hundreds of kilometres into the ice field. When Medusa-766 was in LHB in the summer months, it did not detect sizable wave energy despite the low sea ice concentration extent even during on-ice wave events. Understanding the wave attenuation characteristics is needed to elucidate the ocean wave effect to the unstable LHB fast ice. The success of Medusa-766 demonstrates the robustness of the general design and the high sensitivity of the sensor used, which is promising for future LHB wave?ice interaction research.

  • Microplastic (MP; plastic particles < 5 mm) pollution is pervasive in the marine environment, including remote polar environments. This study provides the first pan-Antarctic survey of MP pollution in Southern Ocean sea ice by analyzing sea ice cores from several diverse Antarctic regions. Abundance, chemical composition, and particle size data were obtained from 19 archived ice core samples. The cores were melted, filtered, and chemically analyzed using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and 4,090 MP particles were identified. Nineteen polymer types were found across all samples, with an average concentration of 44.8 (± 50.9) particles·L-1. Abundance and composition varied with ice type and geographical location. Pack ice exhibited significantly higher particle concentrations than landfast ice, suggesting open ocean sources of pollution. Winter sea ice cores had significantly more MPs than spring and summer-drilled cores, suggesting ice formation processes play a role in particle incorporation. Smaller particles dominated across samples. Polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) were the most common polymers, mirroring those most identified across marine habitats. Higher average MP concentrations in developing sea ice during autumn and winter, contrasting lower levels observed in spring and summer, suggest turbulent conditions and faster growth rates are likely responsible for the increased incorporation of particles. Southern Ocean MP contamination likely stems from both local and distant sources. However, the circulation of deep waters and long-range transport likely contribute to the accumulation of MPs in regional gyres, coastlines, and their eventual incorporation into sea ice. Additionally, seasonal sea ice variations likely influence regional polymer compositions, reflecting the MP composition of the underlying waters.

  • Temporal distributions of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) density and aggregation types were characterized and compared using Nortek Signature100 and SIMRAD Wideband Autonomous Transceiver (WBAT) upward-looking echosounders. Noise varied between the two echosounders. With the Signature100, it was necessary to correct data for background, transient, and impulse noises, while the WBAT data needed to be corrected for background noise only. For selected regions with no visible backscatter, the signal-to-noise ratio of Sv values (i.e. the ratio between the signal and the background noise level) did not vary between the two echosounders. Surface echo backscatter was similar during similar time periods. Descriptive metrics were used to quantify spatial and temporal krill vertical distributions: volume backscatter, mean depth, center of mass, inertia, equivalent area, aggregation index, and proportion occupied. Krill backscatter density differed between the two instruments but was detected at similar mean depths. Krill aggregations were identified at each mooring location and classified in three types based on morphological characteristics. Each type of aggregation shape differed at the two spatially separated moorings, while the acoustic density of each aggregation type was similar. The Signature100 detected a lower number of krill aggregations (n = 133) compared to the WBAT (n = 707). Although both instruments can be used for autonomous deployment and sampling of krill over extended periods, there is a strong caveat for the use of the Signature100 due to significant differences in noise characteristics and krill detection.

  • Diving patterns of air-breathing predators were monitored from three moored subsurface upward-looking echosounders. Complete and partial dive profiles were visible on active acoustic records as echoes that started and/or returned to the surface. Dive metrics: maximum dive depths, durations, and wiggle count were measured and angles, distances, and velocities, were calculated at each site. Dive shapes ‘U’, ‘V’ and ‘W’ were derived using the number of wiggles and the percentage of dive bottom time. Dive profiles were classified into four types with type 1 dives being short in total duration and distance, low velocities, small angles, shallow, and linked to ‘U’ and ‘W’ shapes. Type 2 dives were short in distance, had low velocities, shallow depths, and were linked to ‘V’ dives. Dive types 3 and 4 had higher velocities, larger angles, longer total durations, and were deeper than types 1 and 2. Observed dive types could correspond to travelling, exploring, and foraging predator behaviors. Significant predator-prey overlaps occurred with predator dive profile counts correlated with krill aggregation thickness, density, and depth. This study demonstrates the utility of using stationary active acoustics to identify predator dive profiles with a simultaneous characterization of the potential prey field.

  • Increased knowledge about marine mammal seasonal distribution and species assemblage from the South Orkney Islands waters is needed for the development of management regulations of the commercial fishery for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in this region. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) data were collected during the autumn and winter seasons in two consecutive years (2016, 2017), which represented highly contrasting environmental conditions due to the 2016 El Niño event. We explored differences in seasonal patterns in marine mammal acoustic presence between the two years in context of environmental cues and climate variability. Acoustic signals from five baleen whale species, two pinniped species and odontocete species were detected and separated into guilds. Although species diversity remained stable over time, the ice-avoiding and ice-affiliated species dominated before and after the onset of winter, respectively, and thus demonstrating a shift in guild composition related to season. Herein, we provide novel information about local marine mammal species diversity, community structure and residency times in a krill hotspot. Our study also demonstrates the utility of PAM data and its usefulness in providing new insights into the marine mammal habitat use and responses to environmental conditions, which are essential knowledge for the future development of a sustainable fishery management in a changing ecosystem.

  • Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

  • Future climate and sea level projections depend sensitively on the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean-driven melting and the resulting freshwater fluxes into the Southern Ocean. Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) transport across the Antarctic continental shelf and into cavities beneath ice shelves is increasingly recognised as a crucial heat source for ice shelf melt. Quantifying past changes in the temperature of CDW is therefore of great benefit for modelling ice sheet response to past warm climates, for validating paleoclimate models, and for putting recent and projected changes in CDW temperature into context. Here we compile the available bottom water temperature reconstructions representative of CDW over the past 800 kyr. Estimated interglacial warming reached anomalies of +0.6 +/- 0.4 degrees C (MIS 11) and +0.5 +/- 0.5 degrees C (MIS 5) relative to present. Glacial cooling typically reached anomalies of ca. -1.5 to -2 degrees C, therefore maintaining positive thermal forcing for ice shelf melt even during glacials in the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica. Despite high variance amongst a small number of records and poor (4 kyr) temporal resolution, we find persistent and close relationships between our estimated CDW temperature and Southern Ocean sea surface temperature, Antarctic surface air temperature, and global deep-water temperature reconstructions at glacial-cycle timescales. Given the important role that CDW plays in connecting the world's three main ocean basins and in driving Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, additional temperature reconstructions targeting CDW are urgently needed to increase temporal and spatial resolution and to decrease uncertainty in past CDW temperatures - whether for use as a boundary condition, for model validation, or for understanding past oceanographic changes.

Last update from database: 12/1/25, 3:10 AM (UTC)

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