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Until 1985 most studies of CO2 in gas inclusions in pre-industrial ice indicated that CO2 concentrations (up to 2450 ppm) were higher than the current atmospheric level. After 1985, lower pre-industrial CO2 values were reported, and used as evidence for a recent man-made CO2 increase. The errors in these revised values, however, are of a similar magnitude to the apparent increase in atmospheric CO2 level. The assumptions used in estimating lower CO2 values in past atmospheres have been: no liquid phase in polar ice; younger age of air than of ice due to free gas exchange between deep firn and the atmosphere; and no change in composition of air inclusions. These assumptions are shown to be invalid. Liquid saline water exists in ice at low temperatures, even below −70°C; airtight ice layers are ubiquitous in Antarctic firn; and more than 20 physico-chemical processes operating in situ and in ice cores contribute to the alteration of the chemical composition of air inclusions. The permeable ice sheet with its capillary liquid network acts as a sieve which redistributes elements, isotopes, and micro-particles. Thirty-six to 100% of air recovered from old ice is contaminated by recent atmospheric air during field and laboratory operations. The value of ∼290 ppm, widely accepted from glacier studies for the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 level, apparently results from: invalid assumptions; processes in ice sheets; artifacts in ice cores; and arbitrary rejection of high readings. To date, glaciological studies are not able to provide a reliable reconstruction of either the CO2 level in pre-industrial and ancient atmospheres or paleoclimates. Instead these studies have led to a widely accepted false dogma of man-made climatic warming. This dogma may have enormous negative impact on our common future.

Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and SPOT data collected two years apart from an identical area of Dronning (Queen) Maud Land, Antarctica, have been analyzed to detect variations in surface features that may signal climatic change, and to establish a technique that readily identifies such changes. We found that selective principal component analysis (Chavez and Kwarteng 1989), on band ratios of near-IR/green, highlights changes in blue ice areas. The formation and preservation of blue ice is poorly understood, but we suggest that it generally takes longer to increase a blue ice area than to decrease it, and that blue ice extent is most sensitive to changes in accumulation rate. The investigated blue ice area shows a decrease in extent over the two-year period caused by incursion of snow that probably resulted from an increase in accumulation rate. Comparison of two TM images collected 18 days apart shows that transitory snow drifts have little effect on blue ice extent.

A programme of systematic iceberg observations was initiated in 1981 by Norsk Polarinstitutt through the SCAR Working Group on Glaciology. Icebergs are recorded every 6 h and in five length groups: 10-50, 50-200, 200-500 and 500-1000 m, and those over 1000 m, which are described individually. Data on more than 100 000 icebergs are now on file at Norsk Polarinstitutt, and practically all ships travelling to and from Antarctica participate in the collection of data. This paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of the iceberg data. The quality of the data set is discussed, with consideration of potential errors in and limitations of the data, and various statistical evaluations. Representative distribution data are presented, and used to determine iceberg production, disintegration and mean residence times, and regional and total Antarctic calving rates. The incidence of large-scale calving in particular is evaluated, including the remarkably large break-offs in recent years. These exceed both the total annual accumulation on the Antarctic continent and the mean annual calving rate as determined from ship observations. The results show further: (1) that there are more than 200 000 icebergs south of the Antarctic Convergence, (2) that there are large regional differences in iceberg calving rates and iceberg sizes, and (3) that the calving rate from Antarctica is higher than that given in most previous estimates, which implies (4) that the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is not positive as suggested by most recent estimates.

A systematic programme of side-scan sonar and plumb- line soundings was carried out in the Weddell Sea area in 1985 to measure the under-water sides of ice shelves and icebergs. From these observations the following model is suggested for the evolution of the ice front: (1) Initial stage: fracturing of the ice shelves takes place along smooth, curvi-linear segments with vertical faces. (2) Formative stage: the freshly formed vertical face is eroded both by wave and swell action around the water line, by small calvings from the undercut, overhanging subaerial face, and by submarine melting. The melting has a minimum at 50–100 m depth, and increases with depth to a rate of around 10 m a−1 at 200 m, This is about twice the rate of erosion at the water line. The variation in melting with depth results from a combination of summer melting by near-surface water, and year-round melting by water masses that are increasingly warmer than the pressure melting-point with depth. (3) Mature stage: this stage is reached after a few years of exposure. The backward erosion of the face leads to a shape with a prominent under-water “nose” with a maximum projection to more than 50 m at 50–100 m depth. The ramp above this slopes upwards to meet the vertical wall about 5 m below the water line. The ice below the nose is melted back beyond the above-water face. There is no net buoyancy and ice shelves at this mature stage are generally not up-warped at the front.

Relatively little data on the distribution of Antarctic icebergs were available prior to 1980. The published literature included size data of about 5000 icebergs, and position data of 12 000 icebergs. There were indications that the size data were biased in favour of larger icebergs. A programme of systematic iceberg observations was therefore initiated by Norsk Polarinstitutt in 198! through the SCAR Working Group on Glaciology. This programme is based on standard “blue” forms distributed to all ships going to Antarctica. The icebergs are recorded every 6 h and in Five length groups: 10–50, 50–200, 200–500, and 500–1000 m, and those over 1000 m are described individually. The amount of data has increased greatly from the start in 1981–82. The position of 70 000 icebergs, including 50 000 that had been size classified, were on file at Norsk Polarinstitutt by December 1985, and the data set is growing rapidly. Most ships travelling to and from Antarctica now participate in collection of the data. ( shows the locations of the icebergs sighted.) Fig. 1. Location of iceberg observations under the programme initiated in 1981. Main ship tracks are clearly reflected. The average observation represents 14 icebergs. The size distribution of the classified icebergs observed under this programme up to December 1985 is given in : Table I The “standard size” (length, width, and thickness) is based on our observations from three Antarctic expeditions which carried out dedicated iceberg studies. Many icebergs are of course not right-angled parallelepipedal in shape, but this is a good approximation for most of the larger icebergs. The data are based both on visual sightings and on radar observations. Duplicate observations from a ship moving at slow or zero speed are as far as possible eliminated, both during observation, and by critical appraisal before the data are filed. The data editing also includes evaluation of data quality, especially in connection with radar observations, and comparison of positions and dimensions of the large icebergs in order to reduce to a minimum repeated observations from different vessels of icebergs >1000 m. These account for most of the iceberg mass (see ). Consideration of iceberg-distribution patterns and the observed area of the Southern Ocean, and of duplicate observations, indicates more than 300 000 icebergs south of the Antarctic Convergence, with a total ice mass of about 1016 kg. Consideration of mean residence times indicates an annual iceberg production from the continent of 23–1015 kg, which is considerably higher than most other recent estimates. This also suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet is in balance. The data indicate large regional differences in iceberg sizes, the most noticeable being between the two sides of the Antarctic Peninsula, and between the Amery Ice Shelf/ Prydz Bay area and the remainder of East Antarctica. These differences are probably mainly related to different calving sites. About one-third of the observed icebergs are over the continental shelf of Antarctica. The total under-water area of these icebergs is two orders of magnitude less than the under-water area of the Antarctic ice shelves. The annual total iceberg melting and its effect on the water masses over the continental shelf has been calculated from ocean-water temperature variations at 200 m depth and estimated melt rates. This turns out to be an order of magnitude less than the annual effect of melting sea ice. The iceberg data considered here are probably under-represented with respect to the smallest sizes, and they do not include icebergs that have become <10 m. Inclusion of these ice bodies would increase the total melt.