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Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near-freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW-sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer-based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two-year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year-long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW-derived ISW (Ronne-mode) or more locally derived Berkner-HSSW (Berkner-mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW-cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne-ISW preconditions Berkner-HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner- and Ronne-mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW.

It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2013 for the Weddell Sea region, paying special attention to regional patterns of error statistics. This is the first evaluation of NWP systems over the Southern Ocean that also addresses the accuracy of forecasted vertical profiles. In the evaluation, we use data from land- and ship-based automatic weather stations (AWS) and radiosoundings. While the ECMWF and AMPS forecasts are on average biased cold and dry near the surface, the GFS forecasts are on average biased warm and moist. The near-surface wind speed is on average overestimated by the AMPS forecasts, whereas it is slightly underestimated by the forecasts of the other two NWP systems. Among the variables investigated, all three NWP systems forecast the near-surface specific humidity most accurately, followed by the temperature and then the wind speed. The forecast quality for the near-surface and upper-air wind speed degrades the most rapidly with increasing lead time, compared to the other variables. ECMWF is the overall best NWP system when compared against both the near-surface and upper-air observations, followed by AMPS and then GFS. The generally poorest model performance is found in locations with complex terrain along the coast of the Antarctic continent, and the best over the ocean.

To better capture the air-snow-ice interaction, a snow/ice enhanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ice) model has been developed. This study examines the performance of WRF-ice and its blowing snow component during a strong cyclone event from October 23 to 27, 2017 over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is characterized by a synoptic cyclone crossing the northern part of the Peninsula and an embodied mesoscale cyclone over the Weddell Sea. Evolution of the cyclone is accurately reproduced in the 5-km resolution WRF-ice simulation, and the simulated near-surface conditions agree well with station and satellite observations. Numerical simulations show that the process of blowing snow sublimation can be prominent within the lower atmosphere when the air is dry, and produces moistening and cooling effects. Over relatively warm and humid areas, cloud enhancement by blowing snow can lead to either colder or warmer surfaces because of competing effects of longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcings. In particular, additional moisture from blowing snow sublimation can slightly intensify precipitation over the mountains. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that absorbed shortwave (Sa), incoming longwave (Ld), and outgoing longwave (Lu) are dominant components of surface energy budget. When increases in Ld, Lu, and sensible heat flux are combined with decreases in Sa and latent heat flux due to blowing snow effects, a negative surface net heat flux (∼0.5 W/m2) occurs during daytime. A positive domain-total surface mass balance (∼0.43 Gt) is generated during the simulated cyclone event due to increases in precipitation, decreases in runoff, and decreases in sublimation.

We investigate an intense snowfall event between 15 and 18 February 2011 over the East Antarctic coastal region which contributed to roughly 24% of the annual snow accumulation. The event was previously associated with an atmospheric river, and here we use both Eulerian and Lagrangian analysis to gain an understanding of the processes contributing to the atmospheric river signature. The planetary-scale configuration during the event consisted of a persistent blocking situation resulting in a sustained meridional flow from the sub-tropics to the Antarctic ice sheet between 20 and 50°E. Within this configuration, synoptic-scale cyclogenesis contributed to slantwise ascent of moisture loaded air parcels toward Antarctica. Landfall of this cyclone’s warm sector coincided with the onset of Antarctic precipitation. Subsequently, a secondary cyclone developed along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The rapid intensification and propagation speed of this mesoscale cyclone alongside the warm, moist air mass resulted in strong moisture flux convergence ahead of the cyclone, providing additional poleward moisture transport. The poleward progression of warm moist air and a corresponding decrease of sea-surface temperatures implied downward surface sensible and latent heat fluxes throughout the region of intense poleward moisture, roughly between 40 and 60°S. Hence, moisture uptake via surface evaporation was suppressed between the sub-tropics and the polar continent, favoring long-range transport. Identification of the surface moisture uptake region by tracing changes in moisture in air parcels confirmed the limited uptake of moisture during the poleward transport in this case study, with the primary moisture source for Antarctic precipitation located in the sub-tropics.

In March 2017, measurements of downward global irradiance of ultraviolet (UV) radiation were started with a multichannel GUV-2511 radiometer in Marambio, Antarctica (64.23∘ S; 56.62∘ W), by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) in collaboration with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). These measurements were analysed and the results were compared to previous measurements performed at the same site with the radiometer of the Antarctic NILU-UV network during 2000–2008 and to data from five stations across Antarctica. In 2017/2018 the monthly-average erythemal daily doses from October to January were lower than those averaged over 2000–2008 with differences from 2.3 % to 25.5 %. In 2017/2018 the average daily erythemal dose from September to March was 1.88 kJ m−2, while in 2018/2019 it was 23 % larger (2.37 kJ m−2). Also at several other stations in Antarctica the UV radiation levels in 2017/2018 were below average. The maximum UV indices (UVI) in Marambio were 6.2 and 9.5 in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019, respectively, whereas during years 2000–2008 the maximum was 12. Cloud cover, the strength of the polar vortex and the stratospheric ozone depletion are the primary factors that influence the surface UV radiation levels in Marambio. The lower UV irradiance values in 2017/2018 are explained by the high ozone concentrations in November, February and for a large part of October. The role of cloud cover was clearly seen in December, and to a lesser extent in October and November, when cloud cover qualitatively explains changes which could not be ascribed to changes in total ozone column (TOC). In this study, the roles of aerosols and albedo are of minor influence because the variation of these factors in Marambio was small from one year to the other. The largest variations of UV irradiance occur during spring and early summer when noon solar zenith angle (SZA) is low and the stratospheric ozone concentration is at a minimum (the so-called ozone hole). In 2017/2018, coincident low total ozone column and low cloudiness near solar noon did not occur, and no extreme UV indices were measured.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite was launched on 13 October 2017 to provide the atmospheric composition for atmosphere and climate research. The S5P is a Sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellite providing global daily coverage. The TROPOMI swath is 2600 km wide, and the ground resolution for most data products is 7.2×3.5 km2 (5.6×3.5 km2 since 6 August 2019) at nadir. The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) is responsible for the development of the TROPOMI UV algorithm and the processing of the TROPOMI surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation product which includes 36 UV parameters in total. Ground-based data from 25 sites located in arctic, subarctic, temperate, equatorial and Antarctic areas were used for validation of the TROPOMI overpass irradiance at 305, 310, 324 and 380 nm, overpass erythemally weighted dose rate/UV index, and erythemally weighted daily dose for the period from 1 January 2018 to 31 August 2019. The validation results showed that for most sites 60 %–80 % of TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based data for snow-free surface conditions. The median relative differences to ground-based measurements of TROPOMI snow-free surface daily doses were within ±10 % and ±5 % at two-thirds and at half of the sites, respectively. At several sites more than 90 % of cloud-free TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based measurements. Generally median relative differences between TROPOMI data and ground-based measurements were a little biased towards negative values (i.e. satellite data < ground-based measurement), but at high latitudes where non-homogeneous topography and albedo or snow conditions occurred, the negative bias was exceptionally high: from −30 % to −65 %. Positive biases of 10 %–15 % were also found for mountainous sites due to challenging topography. The TROPOMI surface UV radiation product includes quality flags to detect increased uncertainties in the data due to heterogeneous surface albedo and rough terrain, which can be used to filter the data retrieved under challenging conditions.

Current global warming is causing significant changes in snowfall in polar regions, directly impacting the mass balance of the ice caps. The only water supply in Antarctica, precipitation, is poorly estimated from surface measurements. The onboard cloud-profiling radar of the CloudSat satellite provided the first real opportunity to estimate solid precipitation at continental scale. Based on CloudSat observations, we propose to explore the vertical structure of precipitation in Antarctica over the 2007–2010 period. A first division of this data set following a topographical approach (continent vs. peripheral regions, with a 2,250 m topographical criterion) shows a high snowfall rate (275 mm yr at 1,200 m above ground level) with low relative seasonal variation ( ) over the peripheral areas. Over the plateau, the snowfall rate is low (34 mm yr at 1,200 m above ground level) with a much larger relative seasonal variation ( ). A second study that follows a geographical division highlights the average vertical structure of precipitation and temperature depending on the regions and their interactions with topography. In particular, over ice shelves, we see a strong dependence of the distribution of snowfall on the sea ice coverage. Finally, the relationship between precipitation and temperature is analyzed and compared with a simple analytical relationship. This study highlights that precipitation is largely dependent on the advection of air masses along the topographic slopes with an average vertical wind of 0.02 m s . This provides new diagnostics to evaluate climate models with a three-dimensional approach of the atmospheric structure of precipitation.

Understanding climate proxy records that preserve physical characteristics of past climate is a prerequisite to reconstruct long-term climatic conditions. Water stable isotope ratios (δ18O) constitute a widely used proxy in ice cores to reconstruct temperature and climate. However, the original climate signal is altered between the formation of precipitation and the ice, especially in low-accumulation areas such as the East Antarctic Plateau. Atmospheric conditions under which the isotopic signal is acquired at Aurora Basin North (ABN), East Antarctica, are characterized with the regional atmospheric model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR). The model shows that 50% of the snow is accumulated in less than 24 days year−1. Snowfall occurs throughout the year and intensifies during winter, with 64% of total accumulation between April and September, leading to a cold bias of −0.86°C in temperatures above inversion compared to the annual mean of −29.7°C. Large snowfall events are associated with high-pressure systems forcing warm oceanic air masses toward the Antarctic interior, which causes a warm bias of +2.83°C. The temperature-δ18O relationship, assessed with the global atmospheric model ECHAM5-wiso, is primarily constrained by the winter variability, but the observed slope is valid year-round. Three snow δ18O records covering 2004–2014 indicate that the anomalies recorded in the ice core are attributable to the occurrence of warm winter storms bringing precipitation to ABN and support the interpretation of δ18O in this region as a marker of temperature changes related to large-scale atmospheric conditions, particularly blocking events and variations in the Southern Annular Mode.

Combining information from several channels of the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU-UV) irradiance meter, one may determine the total ozone column (TOC) amount. A NILU-UV instrument has been deployed and operated on two locations at Troll research station in Jutulsessen, Queen Maud Land, Antarctica, for several years. The method used to determine the TOC amount is presented, and the derived TOC values are compared with those obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) located on NASA’s AURA satellite. The findings show that the NILU-UV TOC amounts correlate well with the results of the OMI and that the NILU-UV instruments are suitable for monitoring the long-term change and development of the ozone hole. Because of the large footprint of OMI, NILU-UV is a more suitable instrument for local measurements.

Surface layer and upper-air in situ observations from two research vessel cruises and an ice station in the Weddell Sea from 1992 and 1996 are used to validate four current atmospheric reanalysis products: ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-55, and MERRA-2. Three of the observation data sets were not available for assimilation, providing a rare opportunity to validate the reanalyses in the otherwise datasparse region of the Antarctic against independent data. All four reanalyses produce 2 m temperatures warmer than the observations, and the biases vary from +2.0 K in CFSR to +2.8 K in MERRA-2. All four reanalyses are generally too warm also higher up in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with biases up to +1.4 K (ERA-Interim). Cloud fractions are relatively poorly reproduced by the reanalyses, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 having the strongest positive and negative biases of about +30 % and −17 %, respectively. Skill scores of the error statistics reveal that ERA-Interim compares generally the most favorably against both the surface layer and the upper-air observations. CFSR compares the second best and JRA-55 and MERRA-2 have the least favorable scores. The ABL warm bias is consistent with previous evaluation studies in high latitudes, where more recent observations have been applied. As the amount of observations has varied depending on the decade, season, and region, the consistency of the warm bias suggests a need to improve the modeling systems, including data assimilation as well as ABL and surface parameterizations.

Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.

Surface heat fluxes from four atmospheric reanalyses in the Southern Ocean are evaluated using air–sea measurements obtained from the Aurora Australis during off-winter seasons in 2010–12. The icebreaker tracked between Hobart, Tasmania (ca. 42°S), and the Antarctic continent, providing in situ benchmarks for the surface energy budget change in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean (58–42°S) and the eastern Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ, 68–58°S). We find that the reanalyses show a high-level agreement among themselves, but this agreement reflects a universal bias, not a “truth.” Downward shortwave radiation (SW↓) is overestimated (warm biased) and downward longwave radiation (LW↓) is underestimated (cold biased), an indication that the cloud amount in all models is too low. The ocean surface in both regimes shows a heat gain from the atmosphere when averaged over the seven months (October–April). However, the ocean heat gain in reanalyses is overestimated by 10–36 W m−2 (80–220%) in the MIZ but underestimated by 6–20 W m−2 (7–25%) in the Subantarctic. The biases in SW↓ and LW↓ cancel out each other in the MIZ, causing the surface heat budget to be dictated by the underestimation bias in sensible heat loss. These reanalyses biases affect the surface energy budget in the Southern Ocean by meaningfully affecting the timing of the seasonal transition from net heat gain to net heat loss at the surface and the relative strength of SW↓ at different regimes in summer, when the length-of-day effect can lead to increased SW↓ at high latitudes.

The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China. This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983–2015. The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO, failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO, with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index (AAOI). Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals, we firstly establish a dynamical–statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI (DY AAOI), with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice. This dynamical–statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983–2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation. Then, we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI. The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coefficient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983–2015. Moreover, the unrealistic atmospheric response to March–April–May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO. This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction.

Between 5 and 8 December 1997, the surface air temperature increased up to 3°C in the interior of West Antarctica, at Patriot Hills (PH), located at about 80°08’S, 81°16ʹ W, at an elevation of 855 m a.s.l. This was about 15°C warmer than the mean air temperature (−12°C) for this location at this time of the year. The ice surface field along the hills used as a runway for large aircraft melted, forming small ponds at the foot of the slope. This warm event was associated with a passing mid-tropospheric ridge that reached the interior of West Antarctica, whose anticyclonic circulation advected warm air towards the PH area. The foehn effect of the descending airflow on the northern slope of PH did not significantly contribute to the warming. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was reaching its mature phase during the last quarter of 1997 and the warming/melting episode may be related to large-scale circulation associated with ENSO occurrence. However, warm events in the interior of West Antarctica may occur during any phase of ENSO. In contrast, the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation seems to support the development of the mid-tropospheric ridges that can advect warm maritime air towards the interior of West Antarctica. The 3°C registered at PH may be one of the highest near-surface air temperatures measured below 2500 m a.s.l. in the far interior coastal area of West Antarctica. This suggests a new subregion for determining air temperature records in Antarctica may need to be considered.

The Belgica expedition, which left Belgium in August 1897, was the first to spend 13 months continuously in Antarctic waters, before returning in late 1899. This was not only an exploratory venture, as new lands and oceans were charted, but more importantly it was an exceptional and successful scientific voyage. After the return of the expedition, a vast array of scientific data was processed and eventually 92 publications in some nine volumes funded by the Belgica Commission appeared over 40 years as a series called Résultats du voyage de la Belgica en 1897–99 sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery – rapports scientifiques. Disappointingly, those significant results have been mostly ignored in the scientific literature and the paper here aims to inform scientists of the achievements of the Belgica expedition and where to obtain the information. Many of the climatological and oceanographic data obtained by the expeditioners ought to be examined in line with the changes that are occurring today in the Antarctic Peninsula region as a result of global warming. Some of the Belgica data form an important database to critically assess environmental changes over 120 years in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula.

This paper addresses the barely known history of an Argentine Antarctic hut: the Teniente Luis Ventimiglia hut, installed by the Argentine Antarctic Institute on Peter I Øy (Peter I Island) in March 1971. In examining the history of the only Argentine Antarctic facility outside of the Argentine Antarctic Sector, this article describes the reasons behind the establishment of the hut and the scientific work that took place there as well as previous Argentine expeditions to Peter I.

There is increasing interest in using higher-trophic level predators as ecosystem indicators because their performance is presumed to be linked to the overall function of the ecosystem that supports them. In the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) supports huge predator populations as well as a growing commercial fishery. To utilize information from the ecosystem in an adaptive framework for sustainably managing krill catch levels, performance indices of krill predators have been proposed as a proxy for krill abundance. However, there are several potentially confounding sources of variability that might impact predator performance such as the effects of environmental variability and fishing pressure on krill availability at scales relevant to predators. In this context, our study capitalises on the occurrence of an unexpected El Niño event to characterise how environmental variability can drive changes in predator foraging behaviour. We demonstrate a clear link between coastal downwelling and changes in the at-sea habitat usage of chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica) foraging in a local krill fishing area. Penguins tracked from their breeding colonies on Powell Island, Antarctic Peninsula, undertook fewer, longer foraging trips during the downwelling-affected season compared with the season where no such downwelling was detected, suggesting that changes in climate-driven oceanography may have reduced krill availability along the northern shelf of the island. Our study demonstrates that penguin foraging behaviour is modified by scale-dependent processes, which if not accounted for may result in erroneous conclusions being drawn when using penguins as bioindicators of krill abundance.