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The Southern Ocean greatly contributes to the regulation of the global climate by controlling important heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. Rates of climate change on decadal timescales are therefore impacted by oceanic processes taking place in the Southern Ocean, yet too little is known about these processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent processes at scales that are not well captured in current Earth system models. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate programme was launched to address this knowledge gap, with the overall objective to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key physical processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. Here, we provide a brief overview of the programme, as well as a summary of some of the scientific progress achieved during its first half. Advances range from new evidence of the importance of specific processes in Southern Ocean ventilation rate (e.g. storm-induced turbulence, sea–ice meltwater fronts, wind-induced gyre circulation, dense shelf water formation and abyssal mixing) to refined descriptions of the physical changes currently ongoing in the Southern Ocean and of their link with global climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities’.

Clouds have a large effect on the radiation budget and represent a major source of uncertainty in climate models. Supercooled liquid clouds can exist at temperatures as low as 235 K, and the radiative effect of these clouds depends on the complex refractive index (CRI) of liquid water. Laboratory measurements have demonstrated that the liquid-water CRI is temperature-dependent, but corroboration with field measurements is difficult. Here we present measurements of the downwelling infrared radiance and in-situ measurements of supercooled liquid water in a cloud at temperatures as low as 240 K, made at South Pole Station in 2001. These results demonstrate that including the temperature dependence of the liquid-water CRI is essential for accurate calculations of radiative transfer through supercooled liquid clouds. Furthermore, we show that when cloud properties are retrieved from infrared radiances (using the spectral range 500–1,200 cm−1) spurious ice may be retrieved if the 300 K CRI is used for cold liquid clouds (∼240 K). These results have implications for radiative transfer in climate models as well as for retrievals of cloud properties from infrared radiance spectra.

Continuous atmospheric sampling was conducted between 2010–2015 at Casey station in Wilkes Land, Antarctica, and throughout 2013 at Troll Station in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Sample extracts were analyzed for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and the naturally converted brominated compound, 2,4,6-Tribromoanisole, to explore regional profiles. This represents the first report of seasonal resolution of PBDEs in the Antarctic atmosphere, and we describe conspicuous differences in the ambient atmospheric concentrations of brominated compounds observed between the two stations. Notably, levels of BDE-47 detected at Troll station were higher than those previously detected in the Antarctic or Southern Ocean region, with a maximum concentration of 7800 fg/m3. Elevated levels of penta-formulation PBDE congeners at Troll coincided with local building activities and subsided in the months following completion of activities. The latter provides important information for managers of National Antarctic Programs for preventing the release of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic substances in Antarctica.

To better capture the air-snow-ice interaction, a snow/ice enhanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ice) model has been developed. This study examines the performance of WRF-ice and its blowing snow component during a strong cyclone event from October 23 to 27, 2017 over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is characterized by a synoptic cyclone crossing the northern part of the Peninsula and an embodied mesoscale cyclone over the Weddell Sea. Evolution of the cyclone is accurately reproduced in the 5-km resolution WRF-ice simulation, and the simulated near-surface conditions agree well with station and satellite observations. Numerical simulations show that the process of blowing snow sublimation can be prominent within the lower atmosphere when the air is dry, and produces moistening and cooling effects. Over relatively warm and humid areas, cloud enhancement by blowing snow can lead to either colder or warmer surfaces because of competing effects of longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcings. In particular, additional moisture from blowing snow sublimation can slightly intensify precipitation over the mountains. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that absorbed shortwave (Sa), incoming longwave (Ld), and outgoing longwave (Lu) are dominant components of surface energy budget. When increases in Ld, Lu, and sensible heat flux are combined with decreases in Sa and latent heat flux due to blowing snow effects, a negative surface net heat flux (∼0.5 W/m2) occurs during daytime. A positive domain-total surface mass balance (∼0.43 Gt) is generated during the simulated cyclone event due to increases in precipitation, decreases in runoff, and decreases in sublimation.

We investigate an intense snowfall event between 15 and 18 February 2011 over the East Antarctic coastal region which contributed to roughly 24% of the annual snow accumulation. The event was previously associated with an atmospheric river, and here we use both Eulerian and Lagrangian analysis to gain an understanding of the processes contributing to the atmospheric river signature. The planetary-scale configuration during the event consisted of a persistent blocking situation resulting in a sustained meridional flow from the sub-tropics to the Antarctic ice sheet between 20 and 50°E. Within this configuration, synoptic-scale cyclogenesis contributed to slantwise ascent of moisture loaded air parcels toward Antarctica. Landfall of this cyclone’s warm sector coincided with the onset of Antarctic precipitation. Subsequently, a secondary cyclone developed along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The rapid intensification and propagation speed of this mesoscale cyclone alongside the warm, moist air mass resulted in strong moisture flux convergence ahead of the cyclone, providing additional poleward moisture transport. The poleward progression of warm moist air and a corresponding decrease of sea-surface temperatures implied downward surface sensible and latent heat fluxes throughout the region of intense poleward moisture, roughly between 40 and 60°S. Hence, moisture uptake via surface evaporation was suppressed between the sub-tropics and the polar continent, favoring long-range transport. Identification of the surface moisture uptake region by tracing changes in moisture in air parcels confirmed the limited uptake of moisture during the poleward transport in this case study, with the primary moisture source for Antarctic precipitation located in the sub-tropics.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite was launched on 13 October 2017 to provide the atmospheric composition for atmosphere and climate research. The S5P is a Sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellite providing global daily coverage. The TROPOMI swath is 2600 km wide, and the ground resolution for most data products is 7.2×3.5 km2 (5.6×3.5 km2 since 6 August 2019) at nadir. The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) is responsible for the development of the TROPOMI UV algorithm and the processing of the TROPOMI surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation product which includes 36 UV parameters in total. Ground-based data from 25 sites located in arctic, subarctic, temperate, equatorial and Antarctic areas were used for validation of the TROPOMI overpass irradiance at 305, 310, 324 and 380 nm, overpass erythemally weighted dose rate/UV index, and erythemally weighted daily dose for the period from 1 January 2018 to 31 August 2019. The validation results showed that for most sites 60 %–80 % of TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based data for snow-free surface conditions. The median relative differences to ground-based measurements of TROPOMI snow-free surface daily doses were within ±10 % and ±5 % at two-thirds and at half of the sites, respectively. At several sites more than 90 % of cloud-free TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based measurements. Generally median relative differences between TROPOMI data and ground-based measurements were a little biased towards negative values (i.e. satellite data < ground-based measurement), but at high latitudes where non-homogeneous topography and albedo or snow conditions occurred, the negative bias was exceptionally high: from −30 % to −65 %. Positive biases of 10 %–15 % were also found for mountainous sites due to challenging topography. The TROPOMI surface UV radiation product includes quality flags to detect increased uncertainties in the data due to heterogeneous surface albedo and rough terrain, which can be used to filter the data retrieved under challenging conditions.

Surface layer and upper-air in situ observations from two research vessel cruises and an ice station in the Weddell Sea from 1992 and 1996 are used to validate four current atmospheric reanalysis products: ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-55, and MERRA-2. Three of the observation data sets were not available for assimilation, providing a rare opportunity to validate the reanalyses in the otherwise datasparse region of the Antarctic against independent data. All four reanalyses produce 2 m temperatures warmer than the observations, and the biases vary from +2.0 K in CFSR to +2.8 K in MERRA-2. All four reanalyses are generally too warm also higher up in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with biases up to +1.4 K (ERA-Interim). Cloud fractions are relatively poorly reproduced by the reanalyses, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 having the strongest positive and negative biases of about +30 % and −17 %, respectively. Skill scores of the error statistics reveal that ERA-Interim compares generally the most favorably against both the surface layer and the upper-air observations. CFSR compares the second best and JRA-55 and MERRA-2 have the least favorable scores. The ABL warm bias is consistent with previous evaluation studies in high latitudes, where more recent observations have been applied. As the amount of observations has varied depending on the decade, season, and region, the consistency of the warm bias suggests a need to improve the modeling systems, including data assimilation as well as ABL and surface parameterizations.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pCO2) varied on millennial timescales in phase with Antarctic temperature during the last glacial period. A prevailing view has been that carbon release and uptake by the Southern Ocean dominated this millennial-scale variability in pCO2. Here, using Earth System Model experiments with an improved parameterization of ocean vertical mixing, we find a major role for terrestrial and oceanic carbon releases in driving the pCO2 trend. In our simulations, a change in Northern Hemisphere insolation weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leading to increasing pCO2 and Antarctic temperatures. The simulated rise in pCO2 is caused in equal parts by increased CO2 outgassing from the global ocean due to a reduced biological activity and changed ventilation rates, and terrestrial carbon release as a response to southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The simulated terrestrial release of carbon could explain stadial declines in organic carbon reservoirs observed in recent ice core δ13C measurements. Our results show that parallel variations in Antarctic temperature and pCO2 do not necessitate that the Southern Ocean dominates carbon exchange; instead, changes in carbon flux from the global ocean and land carbon reservoirs can explain the observed pCO2 (and δ13C) changes.

Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.

The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China. This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983–2015. The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO, failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO, with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index (AAOI). Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals, we firstly establish a dynamical–statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI (DY AAOI), with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice. This dynamical–statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983–2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation. Then, we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI. The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coefficient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983–2015. Moreover, the unrealistic atmospheric response to March–April–May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO. This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction.

A likely important feature of the poorly understood aerosol-cloud interactions over the Southern Ocean (SO) is the dominant role of sea spray aerosol, versus terrestrial aerosol. Ice nucleating particles (INPs), or particles required for heterogeneous ice nucleation, present over the SO have not been studied in several decades. In this study, boundary layer aerosol properties and immersion freezing INP number concentrations (nINPs) were measured during a ship campaign that occurred south of Australia (down to 53°S) in March–April 2016. Ocean surface chlorophyll a concentrations ranged from 0.11 to 1.77 mg/m3, and nINPs were a factor of 100 lower than historical surveys, ranging from 0.38 to 4.6 m−3 at −20 °C. The INP population included organic heat-stable material, with contributions from heat-labile material. Lower INP source potentials of SO seawater samples compared to Arctic seawater were consistent with lower ice nucleating site densities in this study compared to north Atlantic air masses.

During the 35th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were carried out using a Li-Cor CO 2 /H 2 O analyser at Bharati, the Indian Antarctic research station. This study examines the short-term variability of atmospheric CO 2 during the austral summer (January–February) of 2016. An average of 396.25 ± 4.20 ppm was observed during the study period. Meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and atmospheric boundary layer height in conjunction with photosynthetically active radiation, the biological activity indicator which modulates atmospheric CO 2 concentration have been investigated. High wind speed (>20 m s −1 ) combined with precipitation scavenges CO 2 in the atmosphere, resulting in low concentrations at the study site. The lowest CO 2 concentration of 385 ppm coincided with heavy precipitation of 15 mm during study period. Statistical analysis of the data shows that precipitation and relative humidity independently correlated 55% (r = −0.55) and 32% (r = −0.32), respectively, with the variability of CO 2 mixing in the atmosphere at the study site. Atmospheric CO 2 was significantly correlated with precipitation alone with a p value of 0.003. Further, multiple regression analysis was performed to test the significant relation between variability of atmospheric CO 2 and meteorological parameters. Long-range air-mass transport analysis depicted that the majority of the air masses are reaching the study site through the oceanic region.

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) affect the chemistry and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Major warmings occur roughly every second winter in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), but has only been observed once in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), during the Antarctic winter of 2002. Observations by the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS, an instrument on board Envisat) during this rare event, show a 40% increase of ozone in the nighttime secondary ozone layer at subpolar latitudes compared to non-SSW years. This study investigates the cause of the mesospheric nighttime ozone increase, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM). The 2002 SH winter was characterized by several reductions of the strength of the polar night jet in the upper stratosphere before the jet reversed completely, marking the onset of the major SSW. At the time of these wind reductions, corresponding episodic increases can be seen in the modelled nighttime secondary ozone layer. This ozone increase is attributed largely to enhanced upwelling and the associated cooling of the altitude region in conjunction with the wind reversal. This is in correspondence to similar studies of SSW induced ozone enhancements in NH. But unlike its NH counterpart, the SH secondary ozone layer appeared to be impacted less by episodic variations in atomic hydrogen. Seasonally decreasing atomic hydrogen plays however a larger role in SH compared to NH.

In the first multiyear sampling effort for POPs in the eastern Antarctic atmosphere, 32 PCBs and 38 organochlorine pesticides were targeted in air collected with a high-flow-through passive sampler. Agricultural chemicals were found to dominate atmospheric profiles, in particular HCB and endosulfan-I, with average concentrations of 12 600 and 550 fg/m3, respectively. HCB showed higher concentrations in the austral summer, indicative of local, temperature-dependent volatilisation, while endosulfan-I appeared to show fresh, late-austral-summer input followed by temporally decreasing levels throughout the year. The current-use herbicide, trifluralin, and the legacy pesticides mirex and toxaphene, were detected in Antarctic air for the first time. Trifluralin was observed at low but increasing levels over the five-year period. Its detection in the Antarctic atmosphere provides evidence of its persistence and long-range environmental transport capability. While a time frame of five years exceeds the duration of most Antarctic air monitoring efforts, it is projected that continuous monitoring at the decadal scale is required to detect an annual 10% change in atmospheric concentrations of key analytes. This finding emphasizes the importance of continuous, long-term monitoring efforts in polar regions, that serve a special role as sentinel environments of hemispheric chemical usage trends.

While the number of surface ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) measurements has soared the recent decades, the Southern Ocean remains undersampled. Williams et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005541) now present pCO2 estimates based on data from pH-sensor equipped Bio-Argo floats, which have been measuring in the Southern Ocean since 2014. The authors demonstrate the utility of these data for understanding the carbon cycle in this region, which has a large influence on the distribution of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Biogeochemical sensors deployed on autonomous platforms hold the potential to shape our view of the ocean carbon cycle in the coming decades.

Motivated by recent event studies and modeling efforts on pulsating aurora, which conclude that the precipitation energy during these events is high enough to cause significant chemical changes in the mesosphere, this study looks for the bulk behavior of auroral pulsations. Based on about 400 pulsating aurora events, we outline the typical duration, geomagnetic conditions, and change in the peak emission height for the events. We show that the auroral peak emission height for both green and blue emission decreases by about 8 km at the start of the pulsating aurora interval. This brings the hardest 10% of the electrons down to about 90 km altitude. The median duration of pulsating aurora is about 1.4 h. This value is a conservative estimate since in many cases the end of event is limited by the end of auroral imaging for the night or the aurora drifting out of the camera field of view. The longest durations of auroral pulsations are observed during events which start within the substorm recovery phases. As a result, the geomagnetic indices are not able to describe pulsating aurora. Simultaneous Antarctic auroral images were found for 10 pulsating aurora events. In eight cases auroral pulsations were seen in the southern hemispheric data as well, suggesting an equatorial precipitation source and a frequent interhemispheric occurrence. The long lifetimes of pulsating aurora, their interhemispheric occurrence, and the relatively high-precipitation energies make this type of aurora an effective energy deposition process which is easy to identify from the ground-based image data.

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100.

The mid-Piacenzian (~3 Ma) represents the most recent warm period in Earth's history on a geological time scale; it is characterized by a significant rise of global sea level. The simulation of the size and location of the ice sheets and the investigation of the uncertainty in the simulations are potentially helpful for constraining reconstructed sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) in the mid-Piacenzian. We investigate the influence of topography correction, model parameters, climate forcings, and model resolution on the modeled AIS and explore the isolated role of atmospheric and oceanic forcings. Forced by the simulated climate changes with the Norwegian Earth System Model, the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (15 km × 15 km) produces a nearly collapsed West AIS (WAIS) in the mid-Piacenzian, with no significant retreat of the East AIS (EAIS). The role of increased air temperature plays a key role in the mass loss of the mid-Piacenzian AIS, while its role is comparable to the role of ocean warming on the melting of the WAIS. In terms of the range of sea level changes, the largest source of uncertainty in the modeled AIS is derived from ice sheet model parameters and climate forcings. Although the employed model parameters, topography correction factors, and model resolution affect the simulated AIS in the mid-Piacenzian, large-scale deglaciation of the EAIS in our sensitivity experiments may only be possible with additional warming.