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During the Quaternary, ice sheets experienced several retreat–advance cycles, strongly influencing climate patterns. In order to properly simulate these phenomena, it is preferable to use physics-based models instead of parameterizations to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB), which strongly influences the evolution of the ice sheet. To further investigate the potential of these SMB models, this work evaluates the BErgen Snow SImulator (BESSI), a multi-layer snow model with high computational efficiency, as an alternative to providing the SMB for the Earth system model iLOVECLIM for multi-millennial simulations as in paleostudies. We compare the behaviors of BESSI and insolation temperature melt (ITM), an existing SMB scheme of iLOVECLIM during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Firstly, we validate the two SMB models using the regional climate model Mod- èle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) as forcing and reference for the present-day climate over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The evolution of the SMB over the LIG (130–116 ka) is computed by forcing BESSI and ITM with transient climate forcing obtained from iLOVECLIM for both ice sheets. For present-day climate conditions, both BESSI and ITM exhibit good performance compared to MAR despite a much simpler model setup. While BESSI performs well for both Antarctica and Greenland for the same set of parame- ters, the ITM parameters need to be adapted specifically for each ice sheet. This suggests that the physics embedded in BESSI allows better capture of SMB changes across varying climate conditions, while ITM displays a much stronger sen- sitivity to its tunable parameters. The findings suggest that BESSI can provide more reliable SMB estimations for the iLOVECLIM framework to improve the model simulations of the ice sheet evolution and interactions with climate for multi-millennial simulations.

The unique challenges of polar ecosystems, coupled with the necessity for high-precision data, make Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) an ideal tool for vegetation monitoring and conservation studies in Antarctica. This review draws on existing studies on Antarctic UAV vegetation mapping, focusing on their methodologies, including surveyed locations, flight guidelines, UAV specifications, sensor technologies, data processing techniques, and the use of vegetation indices. Despite the potential of established Machine-Learning (ML) classifiers such as Random Forest, K Nearest Neighbour, and Support Vector Machine, and gradient boosting in the semantic segmentation of UAV-captured images, there is a notable scarcity of research employing Deep Learning (DL) models in these extreme environments. While initial studies suggest that DL models could match or surpass the performance of established classifiers, even on small datasets, the integration of these advanced models into real-time navigation systems on UAVs remains underexplored. This paper evaluates the feasibility of deploying UAVs equipped with adaptive path-planning and real-time semantic segmentation capabilities, which could significantly enhance the efficiency and safety of mapping missions in Antarctica. This review discusses the technological and logistical constraints observed in previous studies and proposes directions for future research to optimise autonomous drone operations in harsh polar conditions.

This study compares CL51 ceilometer observations made at Scott Base, Antarctica, with statistics from the ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 reanalyses. To enhance the comparison we use a lidar instrument simulator to derive cloud statistics from the reanalyses which account for instrumental factors. The cloud occurrence in the three reanalyses is slightly overestimated above 3 km, but displays a larger underestimation below 3 km relative to observations. Unlike previous studies, we see no relationship between relative humidity and cloud occurrence biases, suggesting that the cloud biases do not result from the representation of moisture. We also show that the seasonal variation of cloud occurrence and cloud fraction, defined as the vertically integrated cloud occurrence, are small in both the observations and the reanalyses. We also examine the quality of the cloud representation for a set of weather states derived from ERA5 surface winds. The variability associated with grouping cloud occurrence based on weather state is much larger than the seasonal variation, highlighting weather state is a strong control of cloud occurrence. All the reanalyses continue to display underestimates below 3 km and overestimates above 3 km for each weather state. But the variability in ERA5 statistics matches the changes in the observations better than the other reanalyses. We also use a machine learning scheme to estimate the quantity of supercooled liquid water cloud from the ceilometer observations. Ceilometer low-level supercooled liquid water cloud occurrences are considerably larger than values derived from the reanalyses, further highlighting the poor representation of low-level clouds in the reanalyses.

Water stable isotope records in polar ice cores have been largely used to reconstruct past local temperatures and other climatic information such as evaporative source region conditions of the precipitation reaching the ice core sites. However, recent studies have identified post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface, modifying the original precipitation signal and challenging the traditional interpretation of ice core isotopic records. In this study, we use a combination of existing and new datasets of precipitation, snow surface, and subsurface isotopic compositions (δ18O and deuterium excess (d-excess)); meteorological parameters; ERA5 reanalyses; outputs from the isotope-enabled climate model ECHAM6-wiso; and a simple modelling approach to investigate the transfer function of water stable isotopes from precipitation to the snow surface and subsurface at Dome C in East Antarctica. We first show that water vapour fluxes at the surface of the ice sheet result in a net annual sublimation of snow, from 3.1 to 3.7 mm w.e. yr−1 (water equivalent) between 2018 and 2020, corresponding to 12 % to 15 % of the annual surface mass balance. We find that the precipitation isotopic signal cannot fully explain the mean, nor the variability in the isotopic composition observed in the snow, from annual to intra-monthly timescales. We observe that the mean effect of post-depositional processes over the study period enriches the snow surface in δ18O by 3.0 ‰ to 3.3 ‰ and lowers the snow surface d-excess by 3.4 ‰ to 3.5 ‰ compared to the incoming precipitation isotopic signal. We also show that the mean isotopic composition of the snow subsurface is not statistically different from that of the snow surface, indicating the preservation of the mean isotopic composition of the snow surface in the top centimetres of the snowpack. This study confirms previous findings about the complex interpretation of the water stable isotopic signal in the snow and provides the first quantitative estimation of the impact of post-depositional processes on the snow isotopic composition at Dome C, a crucial step for the accurate interpretation of isotopic records from ice cores.

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy is a biophysical technique used for non-destructive biochemical profiling of biological samples. It can provide comprehensive information about the total cellular biochemical profile of microbial cells. In this study, FTIR spectroscopy was used to perform biochemical characterization of twenty-nine bacterial strains isolated from the Antarctic meltwater ponds. The bacteria were grown on two forms of brain heart infusion (BHI) medium: agar at six different temperatures (4, 10, 18, 25, 30, and 37°C) and on broth at 18°C. Multivariate data analysis approaches such as principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis were used to study the difference in biochemical profiles induced by the cultivation conditions. The observed results indicated a strong correlation between FTIR spectra and the phylogenetic relationships among the studied bacteria. The most accurate taxonomy-aligned clustering was achieved with bacteria cultivated on agar. Cultivation on two forms of BHI medium provided biochemically different bacterial biomass. The impact of temperature on the total cellular biochemical profile of the studied bacteria was species-specific, however, similarly for all bacteria, lipid spectral region was the least affected while polysaccharide region was the most affected by different temperatures. The biggest temperature-triggered changes of the cell chemistry were detected for bacteria with a wide temperature tolerance such Pseudomonas lundensis strains and Acinetobacter lwoffii BIM B-1558.

In this article, we investigate three arguments for Rights of Antarctica (RoA), understood as recognising the whole continent as a rights-holder with legal standing. For this, we draw inspiration from the Antarctica Declaration, a text developed by an interdisciplinary and international group of scholars and activists. We scrutinise three justifications that could potentially be used in support of RoA. First, we investigate whether arguments for Rights of Nature (RoN) elsewhere can support RoA. RoN has been accepted in several domestic legislations. Unfortunately, we discover important disanalogies between RoA and RoN, defeating the purpose of justifying RoA with reference to RoN. Second, we scrutinise potential arguments that focus on giving rights to specific Antarctic ecoregions or places. However, such arguments would only cover parts of the continent, thus going against the holistic approach of RoA, and they would require using a broader understanding of ?attachments? as grounds for justifying rights for parts of Antarctica. In contrast, we construct an argument for accepting RoA based on four components: (1) Antarctica?s intrinsic value, (2) wider forms of human attachments, (3) Antarctica?s substantial role as a global systemic resource, and (4) the fact that Antarctica is under recurrent and substantial threats. While none of these are individually sufficient for recognising RoA, they can jointly make RoA appropriate. We conclude that it remains an open question whether international law or, more specifically, the Antarctic Treaty, would be open to such conceptual and normative innovation, adopting a new paradigm in our treatment of the nonhuman natural world. At the same time, we hope to kickstart a discussion of what RoA would require and how it should relate more generally to RoN discourses.

The polar regions are increasingly at the center of attention as the hot spots of climate crisis as well as tourism development. The recent IPCC reports highlight several climate change risks for the rather carbon-intensive and weather-based/dependent polar tourism industry in the Arctic and the Antarctic. This study presents the scholarly state-of-knowledge on tourism and climate change in the polar regions with a literature survey extending beyond the Anglophone publications. As a supporting tool, we provide a live web GIS application based on the geographical coverages of the publications and filterable by various spatial, thematic and bibliographical attributes. The final list of 137 publications indicates that, regionally, the Arctic has been covered more than the Antarctic, whilst an uneven distribution within the Arctic also exists. In terms of the climate change risks themes, climate risk research, i.e. impact and adaptation studies, strongly outnumbers the carbon risk studies especially in the Arctic context, and, despite a balance between the two main risk themes, climate risk research in the Antarctic proves itself outdated. Accordingly, the review ends with a research agenda based on these spatial and thematic gaps and their detailed breakdowns.

From 1901 to 1912 – known as the “heroic period” of Arctic and Antarctic exploration – great inroads were made (not only geographic but also scientific) to our knowledge of the continent. At Amundsen's Expedition through the Northwest Passage, measurements of the geomagnetic field and visual auroras were carried out for 19 months at Gjoa Haven (Gjøahavn in Norwegian; geographic coordinates 68°37′10′′ N, 95°53′25′′ W). Scott's Discovery Expedition – at Cape Armitage, McMurdo (coordinates 77.86° S, 166.69° E), Antarctica – carried out the same type of measurements. Their observations were carried out geomagnetically conjugate to Gjoa Haven, with both stations close to 78° magnetic latitude. In addition, measurements were overlapping in time during 1903–1904. However, these two stations are located at different longitudes, so there is a difference in local time between the stations of about 6.5 h. Gjoa Haven and Cape Armitage are conveniently located for separating disturbances in the polar cap regions caused by solar electromagnetic radiations or the solar wind. Auroras were observed during 7 months per year. This gave a unique possibility to compare conjugate characteristics of polar cap auroras. Comparing conjugate geophysical data introduces some difficulties. During the winter season at Gjoa Haven, they had a bright summer in Antarctica, and visa versa. Thus, simultaneous temporal and spatial ionospheric variations can be marked differently. Still, the average diurnal and seasonal variations were similar. The quantity of the auroral data from Cape Armitage was larger because there they had a continuous watch of the sky. The main findings regarding polar cap auroras are the following. Three different auroral forms dominate the polar cap. Low-intensity auroral bands – then called streamers – were the dominating auroral forms morning and afternoon. The number of auroral events in 1903 was nearly twice that in 1902 and 1904. A marked midwinter maximum was observed at both stations. Many displays were observed poleward of the oval. The large fraction was associated with weak magnetic disturbances. Some forms of polar cap aurora have special magnetic signatures and seem to be anti-correlated with Kp. They can be mapped even if they are not seen. According to recent satellite measurements (Newell et al., 2009), they are probably caused by polar rain and/or photoelectrons.

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

The polar regions are facing a wide range of compounding challenges, from climate change to increased human activity. Infrastructure, rescue services, and disaster response capabilities are limited in these remote environments. Relevant and usable weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) information is vital for safety, activity success, adaptation, and environmental protection. This has been a key focus for the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular its “Societal and Economic Research and Applications” (PPP-SERA) Task Team, which together over a decade have sought to understand polar WWIC information use in relation to operational needs, constraints, and decision contexts to inform the development of relevant services. To understand research progress and gaps on WWIC information use during the PPP (2013–23), we undertook a systematic bibliometric review of aligned scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles (n = 43), examining collaborations, topics, methods, and regional differences. Themes to emerge included activity and context, human factors, information needs, situational awareness, experience, local and Indigenous knowledge, and sharing of information. We observed an uneven representation of disciplinary backgrounds, geographic locations, research topics, and sectoral foci. Our review signifies an overall lack of Antarctic WWIC services research and a dominant focus on Arctic sea ice operations and risks. We noted with concern a mismatch between user needs and services provided. Our findings can help to improve WWIC services’ dissemination, communication effectiveness, and actionable knowledge provision for users and guide future research as the critical need for salient weather services across the polar regions remains beyond the PPP. Significance Statement Every day, people in the Arctic and Antarctic use weather, water, ice, and climate information to plan and carry out outdoor activities and operations in a safe way. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction, technology, and product development, barriers to accessing and effectively communicating high-quality usable observations, forecasts, and actionable knowledge remain. Poorer services, prediction accuracy, and interpretation are exacerbated by a lack of integrated social science research on relevant topics and a mismatch between the services provided and user needs. As a result, continued user engagement, research focusing on information use, risk communication, decision-making processes, and the application of science for services remain highly relevant to reducing risks and improving safety for people living, visiting, and working in the polar regions.

The ongoing global climate crisis increases temperatures in polar regions faster and with greater magnitude than elsewhere. The decline of Arctic sea ice opens up new passages, eventually leading to higher anthropogenic activities such as shipping, fishing, and mining. Climate change and anthropogenic activities will increase contaminant transport from temperate to Arctic regions. The shipping industry uses copper as an antifouling coating. Copper is an essential element but becomes toxic at excess concentrations, and its use may inadvertently affect non-target organisms such as copepods. Copper affects copepods by lowering reproductive output, prolonging developmental time, and causing increased mortality. As data on copper sensitivity of polar copepods at low temperatures are rare, we conducted onboard survival experiments with the Arctic region’s most common copepod species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. hyperboreus). Acute survival tests were done for up to 8 days on individuals in 70 ml bottles at 1 °C with nominal copper concentrations ranging from 3 to 480 μg L−1. We used a reduced General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) to analyse the data, and placed our results in the context of the few published copper sensitivity data of the Antarctic and temperate copepod species at low temperatures. The sensitivity of Cu exposure was similar between the three Calanus species. However, a model comparison suggests that the tested C. glacialis population is less sensitive than the other two species in our experiments. Compared to published data, the three Arctic species appear slightly less sensitive to copper compared to their Antarctic counterparts but more compared to their temperate ones. Our literature search revealed only a few available studies on the copper sensitivity of polar copepods. In the future, this species group will be exposed to more pollutants, which warrants more studies to predict potential risks, especially given possible interactions with environmental factors.

Warmer ocean conditions could impact future ice loss from Antarctica due to their ability to thin and reduce the buttressing of laterally confined ice shelves. Previous studies highlight the potential for a cold to warm ocean regime shift within the sub-shelf cavities of the two largest Antarctic ice shelves—the Filchner–Ronne and Ross. However, how this impacts upstream ice flow and mass loss has not been quantified. Here using an ice sheet model and an ensemble of ocean-circulation model sub-shelf melt rates, we show that transition to a warm state in those ice shelf cavities leads to a destabilization and irreversible grounding line retreat in some locations. Once this ocean shift takes place, ice loss from the Filchner–Ronne and Ross catchments is greatly accelerated, and conditions begin to resemble those of the present-day Amundsen Sea sector—responsible for most current observed Antarctic ice loss—where this thermal shift has already occurred.

We are in a period of rapidly accelerating change across the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean, with land ice loss leading to sea level rise and multiple other climate impacts. The ice-ocean interactions that dominate the current ice loss signal are a key underdeveloped area of knowledge. The paucity of direct and continuous observations leads to high uncertainty in the glaciological, oceanographic and atmospheric fields required to constrain ice-ocean interactions, and there is a lack of standardised protocols for reconciling observations across different platforms and technologies and modelled outputs. Funding to support observational campaigns is under increasing pressure, including for long-term, internationally coordinated monitoring plans for the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean. In this Practice Bridge article, we outline research priorities highlighted by the international ice-ocean community and propose the development of a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION), using a combined observational-modelling approach, to address these issues. Finally, we propose an implementation plan for putting FUSION into practice by focusing first on an essential variable in ice-ocean interactions: ocean-driven ice shelf melt.

Antarctica is the coldest, windiest and least inhabited place on Earth. One of its most enigmatic regions is scoured by katabatic winds blue ice that covers 235,000 km2 of the Antarctic fringe. Here, we demonstrate that contrary to common belief, high-altitude inland blue ice areas are not dry, nor barren. Instead, they promote sub-surface melting that enables them to become “powerplants” for water, nutrients, carbon and major ions production. Mapping cryoconite holes at an unprecedented scale of 62 km2 also revealed a regionally significant resource of dissolved nitrogen, phosphorus (420 kg km−2), dissolved carbon (1323 kg km−2), and major ions (6672 kg km−2). We discovered that unlike on glaciers, creation of cryoconite holes and their chemical signature on the ice sheet is governed by ice movement and bedrock geology. Blue ice areas are near-surface hotspots of microbial life within cryoconite holes. Bacterial communities they support are unexpectedly diverse. We also show that near-surface aquifers can exist in blue ice outside cryoconite holes. Identifying blue ice areas as active ice sheet ecosystems will help us understand the role ice sheets play in Antarctic carbon cycle, development of near-surface drainage system, and will expand our perception of the limits of life.

Understanding how Antarctica is changing and how these changes influence the rest of the Earth is fundamental to the future robustness of human society. Strengthening our understanding of these changes and their implications requires dedicated, sustained and coordinated observations of key Antarctic indicators. The Troll Observing Network (TONe), now under development, is Norway’s contribution to the global need for sustained, coordinated, complementary and societally relevant observations from Antarctica. When fully implemented within the coming three years, TONe will be a state-of-the-art, multi-platform, multi-disciplinary observing network in data-sparse Dronning Maud Land. A critical part of the network is a data management system that will ensure broad, free access to all TONe data to the international research community.

Incomplete species inventories for Antarctica represent a key challenge for comprehensive ecological research and conservation in the region. Additionally, data required to understand population dynamics, rates of evolution, spatial ranges, functional traits, physiological tolerances and species interactions, all of which are fundamental to disentangle the different functional elements of Antarctic biodiversity, are mostly missing. However, much of the fauna, flora and microbiota in the emerged ice-free land of the continent have an uncertain presence and/or unresolved status, with entire biodiversity compendia of prokaryotic groups (e.g. bacteria) being missing. All the available biodiversity information requires consolidation, cross-validation, re-assessment and steady systematic inclusion in order to create a robust catalogue of biodiversity for the continent.We compiled, completed and revised eukaryotic species inventories present in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in Antarctica in a new living database: terrANTALife (version 1.0). The database includes the first integration in a compendium for many groups of eukaryotic microorganisms. We also introduce a first catalogue of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of prokaryotic biodiversity. Available compendia and literature to date were searched for Antarctic terrestrial and freshwater species, integrated, taxonomically harmonised and curated by experts to create comprehensive checklists of Antarctic organisms. The final inventories comprises 470 animal species (including vertebrates, free-living invertebrates and parasites), 306 plants (including all Viridiplantae: embryophytes and green algae), 997 fungal species and 434 protists (sensu lato). We also provide a first account for many groups of microorganisms, including non-lichenised fungi and multiple groups of eukaryotic unicellular species (Stramenophila, Alveolata and Rhizaria (SAR), Chromists and Amoeba), jointly referred to as "protists". In addition, we identify 1753 bacterial (obtained from 348117 ASVs) and 34 archaeal genera (from 1848 ASVs), as well as, at least, 14 virus families. We formulate a basic tree of life in Antarctica with the main lineages listed in the region and their “known-accepted-species” numbers.

Lentic waterbodies provide terrestrial sedimentary archives of palaeoenvironmental change in deglaciated areas of the Antarctic. Knowledge of the long-term evolution of Antarctic palaeoenvironments affords important context to the current marked impacts of climate change in the Polar regions. Here, we present a comprehensively dated, multi-proxy sedimentary record from Monolith Lake, a distal proglacial lake in one of the largest ice-free areas of the Antarctic Peninsula region. Of the two defined sedimentary units in the cores studied, the lower Unit 1 exhibits a homogeneous composition and unvarying proxy data profiles, suggesting rapid clastic deposition under uniform, ice-proximal conditions with a sedimentation rate of ∼1 mm yr−1. 14C and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating bracket the deposition interval to 1.5–2.5 ka BP, with the older age being more probable when compared to independent dating of the local deglaciation. The uppermost 11 cm of the record spans the last ∼2.2 ka BP (maximum age), suggesting a markedly decreased sedimentation rate of ∼0.05 mm yr−1 within Unit 2. Whereas Unit 1 shows only scarce evidence of biological activity, Unit 2 provides an uninterrupted record of diatoms (with 29 species recorded) and faunal subfossils, including the fairy shrimp Branchinecta gaini. Concentrations of organically-derived elements, as well as diatoms and faunal remains, are consistent, implying a gradual increase in lake productivity. These results provide an example of long-term Antarctic ‘greening’ (i.e. increasing organic productivity in terrestrial habitats) from a palaeolimnological perspective. The boundary between Units 1 and 2, therefore, marks the timing of local deglaciation at the final stages of a period of negative glacier mass balance, i.e. the Mid-Late Holocene Hypsithermal. Subsequent Neoglacial cooling is evidenced by the abated influence of glacial meltwater streams and turbidity decline linked to reduced glacier runoff, although most proxy responses mirror the natural proglacial lake ontogeny.

Abstract Global warming has prompted globally widespread permafrost thawing, resulting in enhanced greenhouse gas release into the atmosphere. Studies conducted in the Northern Hemisphere reveal an alarming increase in permafrost thawing. However, similar data from Antarctica are scarce. We conducted a 2-D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography (DERT) survey in Taylor Valley, Antarctica, to image the distribution of permafrost, its thicknesses, lower boundaries, and hydrogeology. Results show resistive, discontinuous domains that we suggest represent permafrost units. We also find highly conductive layers (5?10 Ω·m), between 300?350 m and 600?650 m below ground level and a shallower (?50?100 m depth) conductive layer. The combined data set reveals a broad brine system in Taylor Valley, implying multi-tiered groundwater circulation: a shallow, localized system linked with surface water bodies and a separate deeper, regional circulation system. The arrangement of these brines across different levels, coupled with the uneven permafrost distribution, underscores potential interplay between the two systems.

Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project?Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%?40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ?10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.

Earth’s obliquity and eccentricity cycles are strongly imprinted on Earth’s climate and widely used to measure geological time. However, the record of these imprints on the oxygen isotope record in deep-sea benthic foraminifera (δ18Ob) shows contradictory signals that violate isotopic principles and cause controversy over climate-ice sheet interactions. Here, we present a δ18Ob record of high fidelity from International Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1406 in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. We compare our record to other records for the time interval between 28 and 20 million years ago, when Earth was warmer than today, and only Antarctic ice sheets existed. The imprint of eccentricity on δ18Ob is remarkably consistent globally whereas the obliquity signal is inconsistent between sites, indicating that eccentricity was the primary pacemaker of land ice volume. The larger eccentricity-paced early Antarctic ice ages were vulnerable to rapid termination. These findings imply that the self-stabilizing hysteresis effects of large land-based early Antarctic ice sheets were strong enough to maintain ice growth despite consecutive insolation-induced polar warming episodes. However, rapid ice age terminations indicate that resistance to melting was weaker than simulated by numerical models and regularly overpowered, sometimes abruptly.