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Following a weakening of the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) since the mid-1970s, the half-yearly pressure wave in the Southern Hemisphere has become less significant. As a result, May/June temperatures have decreased in East Antarctica, which has moderated Antarctic warming. Spectral analysis of 87 years of pressure data at Orcadas suggest that the recent weakening of the SAO is part of the natural variability of the Southern Hemisphere circulation on decadal timescales. We interpret the time series of composite Antarctic temperature in terms of the historical strengthening and weakening of the SAO. If the dominant oscillations that occurred in the past prove to be persistent, an accelerated East Antarctic warming trend is expected for the coming decades. There are indications that the strength of the SAO is linked to the Southern Oscillation, in the sense that warm phases of the Southern Oscillation coincide with strong westerlies, a weakly developed SAO and below-average temperatures in East Antarctica. Temperatures on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show strongly deviant patterns, which can not be explained by the same mechanism that applies to East Antarctica.

We studied the influence of the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) on near-surface temperatures in Antarctica, using observations of 27 stations that were operational during (part of) the period 1957–79. For the annual cycle of surface pressure, the second harmonic explains 17–36% of the total variance on the Antarctic Plateau, 36–68% along the East Antarctic coast and almost 80% on the west coast of the Peninsula, and decreases further to the north. As a result of the amplification of the wave-3 structure of the circulation around Antarctica, a significant modification of the seasonal cooling is observed at many stations. The magnitude of this modification is largely determined by the strength of the temperature inversion at the surface: the percentage of the variance explained by the second harmonic of the annual temperature cycle is then largest on the Antarctic Plateau (11–18%), followed by the large ice shelves and coastal East Antarctica (6–12%) and stations at or close to the Peninsula (0–5%). A significant coupling between the half-yearly wave in surface pressure and that in surface temperature is found for coastal East Antarctica, which can be directly explained by the changes in meridional circulation brought about by the SAO. We show that the coupling of Antarctic temperatures to the meridional circulation is not only valid on the seasonal time scale of the SAO, but probably also on daily and interannual time scales. This has important implications for the interpretation of time series of Antarctic temperatures, a problem that will be addressed in part 2 of this paper.

In this paper we use output of a high-resolution general circulation model (ECHAM-3 T106, resolution 1.1°?1.1°) to study the spatial and temporal variation of sublimation on Antarctica. First, we compare model results with available observations of sublimation rates. The yearly cycle, with small latent heat fluxes during the winter, is well reproduced, and the agreement with sparsely available spot observations is fair. The model results suggest that a significant 10?15% of the annual precipitation over Antarctica is lost through sublimation and that sublimation plays an important role in the formation of blue ice areas. A preliminary analysis of the atmospheric boundary layer moisture budget shows that the spatial variation of sublimation in the coastal zone of East Antarctica can be explained by variations of horizontal advection of dry air. Dry air advection, and thus surface sublimation, is enhanced in areas where katabatic winds are strong and have a large downslope component and where the Antarctic topography drops suddenly from the plateau to the coastal zone. In areas where horizontal advection is small, like the plateau and the large ice shelves, special conditions must be met to make significant sublimation at the surface possible.

Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall. Here we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model, evaluated with available firn core records and gravimetry observations, and show that such episodes had not been seen previously in the satellite climate data era (1979). Comparisons with historical data that originate from firn cores, one with records extending back to the 18th century, confirm that accumulation anomalies of this scale have not occurred in the past ~60 years, although comparable anomalies are found further back in time. We examined several regional climate model projections, describing various warming scenarios into the 21st century. Anomalies with magnitudes similar to the recently observed ones were not present in the model output for the current climate, but were found increasingly probable toward the end of the 21st century.

During 1996-97 a European Project for Ice Goring in Antarctica (EPIGA) pre-site surveying traverse worked in the area between 70° S, 5° E and 75° S, 15° E in Dronning Maud Land. We present data obtained from 10 and 20 m deep firn cores drilled between the coast and 600 km inland (to 3450 m a.s.l.). The cores were analyzed for electrical conductivity measurements and total β activity to obtain accumulation data between known time horizons. In addition, some of the cores were analyzed for oxygen isotopes. Annual accumulation varies from 271 mm we. at Fimbulisen to 24 mm we at 2840 m a.s.l. Accumulation at core sites 2400-3000 m a.s.l. has increased by 16-48% since 1965 compared to the 1955-65 period. However, the core sites above 3250 m a.s.l. and one core location on the ice shelf show a decrease during the same period. Furthermore, no change can be detected at the most inland site for the period 1815-1996. In all the cores the last few years seem to have been some of the warmest in these records.

As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well- known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallowdrilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.

An extreme precipitation event that influenced almost the whole polar plateau of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, is investigated using Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System archive data. For the first time a high-resolution atmospheric model especially adapted for polar regions was used for such a study in Dronning Maud Land. The outstanding event of 21–25 February 2003 was connected to a strong north-westerly flow, caused by a blocking high above eastern Dronning Maud Land, that persisted for several days and brought unusually large levels of moisture to the Antarctic Plateau. This weather situation is most effective in bringing precipitation to high-altitude interior Antarctic ice-core drilling sites, where precipitation in the form of diamond dust usually dominates. However, a few such precipitation events per year can account for a large percentage of the annual accumulation, which can cause a strong bias in ice-core data. Additionally, increased temperatures and wind speeds during these events need to be taken into account for the correct climatic interpretation of ice cores. A better understanding of the frequency of occurrence of intermittent precipitation in the interior of Antarctica in past and future climates is necessary for both palaeoclimatological studies and estimates of future sea-level change.

Temperature, density and accumulation data were obtained from shallow firn cores, drilled during an overland traverse through a previously unknown part of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The traverse area is characterised by high mountains that obstruct the ice flow, resulting in a sudden transition from the polar plateau to the coastal region. The spatial variations of potential temperature, near-surface firn density and accumulation suggest that katabatic winds are active in this region. Proxy wind data derived from firn-density profiles confirm that annual mean wind speed is strongly related to the magnitude of the surface slope. The high elevation of the ice sheet south of the mountains makes for a dry, cold climate, in which mass loss owing to sublimation is small and erosion of snow by the wind has a potentially large impact on the surface mass balance. A simple katabatic-wind model is used to explain the variations of accumulation along the traverse line in terms of divergence/convergence of the local transport of drifting snow. The resulting wind- and snowdrift patterns are closely connected to the topography of the ice sheet: ridges are especially sensitive to erosion, while ice streams and other depressions act as collectors of drifting snow.

A 100 m long ice core was retrieved from the coastal area of Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, in the 2000/01 austral summer. The core was dated to AD 1737 by identification of volcanic horizons in dielectrical profiling and electrical conductivity measurement records in combination with seasonal layer counting from high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) data. A mean long-term accumulation rate of 0.29 ma–1w.e. was derived from the high-resolution δ18O record as well as accumulation rates during periods in between the identified volcanic horizons. A statistically significant decrease in accumulation was found from about 1920 to the present. A comparison with other coastal ice cores from DML suggests that this is a regional pattern.

This paper presents an overview of firn accumulation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, over the past 1000 years. It is based on a chronology established with dated volcanogenic horizons detected by dielectric profiling of six medium-length firn cores. In 1998 the British Antarctic Survey retrieved a medium-length firn core from western DML. During the Nordic EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) traverse of 2000/01, a 160 m long firn core was drilled in eastern DML. Together with previously published data from four other medium-length ice cores from the area, these cores yield 50 possible volcanogenic horizons. All six firn cores cover a mutual time record until the 29th eruption. This overlapping period represents a period of approximately 1000 years, with mean values ranging between 43 and 71 mm w.e. The cores revealed no significant trend in snow accumulation. Running averages over 50 years, averaged over the six cores, indicate temporal variations of5%. All cores display evidence of a minimum in the mean annual firn accumulation rate around AD 1500 and maxima around AD 1400 and 1800. The mean increase over the early 20th century was the strongest increase, but the absolute accumulation rate was not much higher than around AD 1400. In eastern DML a 13% increase is observed for the second half of the 20th century.

Ice rises play key roles in buttressing the neighbouring ice shelves and potentially provide palaeoclimate proxies from ice cores drilled near their divides. Little is known, however, about their influence on local climate and surface mass balance (SMB). Here we combine 12 years (2001–12) of regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) output at high horizontal resolution (5.5 km) with recent observations from weather stations, ground-penetrating radar and firn cores in coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, to describe climate and SMB variations around ice rises. We demonstrate strong spatial variability of climate and SMB in the vicinity of ice rises, in contrast to flat ice shelves, where they are relatively homogeneous. Despite their higher elevation, ice rises are characterized by higher winter temperatures compared with the flat ice shelf. Ice rises strongly influence SMB patterns, mainly through orographic uplift of moist air on the upwind slopes. Besides precipitation, drifting snow contributes significantly to the ice-rise SMB. The findings reported here may aid in selecting a representative location for ice coring on ice rises, and allow better constraint of local ice-rise as well as regional ice-shelf mass balance.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest, highest, coldest, driest, and windiest ice sheet on Earth. Understanding of the surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica is necessary to determine the present state of the ice sheet, to make predictions of its potential contribution to sea level rise, and to determine its past history for paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, SMB values are poorly known because of logistic constraints in extreme polar environments, and they represent one of the biggest challenges of Antarctic science. Snow accumulation is the most important parameter for the SMB of ice sheets. SMB varies on a number of scales, from small-scale features (sastrugi) to ice-sheet-scale SMB patterns determined mainly by temperature, elevation, distance from the coast, and wind-driven processes. In situ measurements of SMB are performed at single points by stakes, ultrasonic sounders, snow pits, and firn and ice cores and laterally by continuous measurements using ground-penetrating radar. SMB for large regions can only be achieved practically by using remote sensing and/or numerical climate modeling. However, these techniques rely on ground truthing to improve the resolution and accuracy. The separation of spatial and temporal variations of SMB in transient regimes is necessary for accurate interpretation of ice core records. In this review we provide an overview of the various measurement techniques, related difficulties, and limitations of data interpretation; describe spatial characteristics of East Antarctic SMB and issues related to the spatial and temporal representativity of measurements; and provide recommendations on how to perform in situ measurements.

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.