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Measurement of light intensity transmission was carried out on an ice core S100 from coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML). Ice lenses were observed in digital pictures of the core and recorded as peaks in the light transmittance record. The frequency of ice layer occurrence was compared with climate proxy data (e.g. oxygen isotopes), annual accumulation rate derived from the same ice core, and available meteorological data from coastal stations in DML. The mean annual frequency of melting events remains constant for the last ∼150 years. However, fewer melting features are visible at depths corresponding to approximately 1890–1930 AD and the number of ice lenses increases again after 1930 AD. Most years during this period have negative summer temperature anomalies and positive annual accumulation anomalies. The increase in melting frequency around ∼1930 AD corresponds to the beginning of a decreasing trend in accumulation and an increasing trend in oxygen isotope record. On annual time scales, a relatively good match exists between ice layer frequencies and mean summer temperatures recorded at nearby meteorological stations (Novolazarevskaya, Sanae, Syowa and Halley) only for some years. There is a poor agreement between melt feature frequencies and oxygen isotope records on longer time scales. Melt layer frequency proved difficult to explain with standard climate data and ice core derived proxies. These results suggest a local character for the melt events and a strong influence of surface topography.

Ice samples from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, were analyzed for 14CO2 and 14CO by accelerator mass spectrometry. Only a small amount (∼2%) of in situ produced radiocarbon was detected. The calibrated radiocarbon ages, corrected for in situ produced 14C, are in fair agreement with age estimates obtained from stratigraphical methods added to a gas inclusion model. The ages of the entrapped air range from recent to ca. 1200 AD.

A 100 m long ice core was retrieved from the coastal area of Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, in the 2000/01 austral summer. The core was dated to AD 1737 by identification of volcanic horizons in dielectrical profiling and electrical conductivity measurement records in combination with seasonal layer counting from high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) data. A mean long-term accumulation rate of 0.29 ma–1w.e. was derived from the high-resolution δ18O record as well as accumulation rates during periods in between the identified volcanic horizons. A statistically significant decrease in accumulation was found from about 1920 to the present. A comparison with other coastal ice cores from DML suggests that this is a regional pattern.

This paper presents an overview of firn accumulation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, over the past 1000 years. It is based on a chronology established with dated volcanogenic horizons detected by dielectric profiling of six medium-length firn cores. In 1998 the British Antarctic Survey retrieved a medium-length firn core from western DML. During the Nordic EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) traverse of 2000/01, a 160 m long firn core was drilled in eastern DML. Together with previously published data from four other medium-length ice cores from the area, these cores yield 50 possible volcanogenic horizons. All six firn cores cover a mutual time record until the 29th eruption. This overlapping period represents a period of approximately 1000 years, with mean values ranging between 43 and 71 mm w.e. The cores revealed no significant trend in snow accumulation. Running averages over 50 years, averaged over the six cores, indicate temporal variations of5%. All cores display evidence of a minimum in the mean annual firn accumulation rate around AD 1500 and maxima around AD 1400 and 1800. The mean increase over the early 20th century was the strongest increase, but the absolute accumulation rate was not much higher than around AD 1400. In eastern DML a 13% increase is observed for the second half of the 20th century.

We investigate and quantify the variability of snow accumulation rate around a medium-depth firn core (160 m) drilled in east Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (75°00′ S, 15°00’ E; 3470 m h.a.e. (ellipsoidal height)). We present accumulation data from five snow pits and five shallow (20 m) firn cores distributed within a 3.5–7 km distance, retrieved during the 2000/01 Nordic EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) traverse. Snow accumulation rates estimated for shorter periods show higher spatial variance than for longer periods. Accumulation variability as recorded from the firn cores and snow pits cannot explain all the variation in the ion and isotope time series; other depositional and post-depositional processes need to be accounted for. Through simple statistical analysis we show that there are differences in sensitivity to these processes between the analyzed species. Oxygen isotopes and sulphate are more conservative in their post-depositional behaviour than the more volatile acids, such as nitrate and to some degree chloride and methanesulphonic acid. We discuss the possible causes for the accumulation variability and the implications for the interpretation of ice-core records.

During the Nordic EPICA pre-site survey in Dronning Maud Land in 1997/1998 a 120 m long ice core was retrieved (76°00′S 08°03′W, 2400 m above sea level). The whole core has been measured using the electric conductivity measurement (ECM) and dielectric profiling (DEP) techniques, and the core chronology has been established by detecting major volcanic eruptions. In a nearby shallow core radioactive traces from nuclear tests conducted during the 1950s and 1960s have been identified. Altogether, 13 ECM and DEP peaks in the long core are identified as originating from specific volcanic eruptions. In addition two peaks of increased total β activity are identified in the short core. Accumulation is calculated as averages over the time periods between these dated events. Accumulation rate is 62 millimetres (w. eq./yr) for the last 181 years (1816 A.D. to present) and 61 mm w. eq./yr for the last 1457 years (540 A.D. to present). Our record shows an 8% decrease in accumulation between 1452 and 1641 A.D. (i.e. part of the Little Ice Age), compared to the long-term mean.

Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project?Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%?40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ?10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long—28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.