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Ice shelves play an important role in stabilizing the interior grounded ice of the large ice sheets. The thinning of major ice shelves observed in recent years, possibly in connection to warmer ocean waters coming into contact with the ice-shelf base, has focused attention on the ice-ocean interface. Here we reveal a complex network of sub ice-shelf channels under the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica, mapped using ground-penetrating radar over a 100 km2 grid. The channels are 300–500 m wide and 50 m high, among the narrowest of any reported. Observing narrow channels beneath an ice shelf that is mainly surrounded by cold ocean waters, with temperatures close to the surface freezing point, shows that channelized basal melting is not restricted to rapidly melting ice shelves, indicating that spatial melt patterns around Antarctica are likely to vary on scales that are not yet incorporated in ice-ocean models.

Curvilinear channels on the surface of an ice shelf indicate the presence of large channels at the base. Modelling studies have shown that where these surface expressions intersect the grounding line, they coincide with the likely outflow of subglacial water. An understanding of the initiation and the ice–ocean evolution of the basal channels is required to understand the present behaviour and future dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves. Here, we present focused active seismic and radar surveys of a basal channel, ∼950 m wide and ∼200 m high, and its upstream continuation beneath Support Force Glacier, which feeds into the Filchner Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. Immediately seaward from the grounding line, below the basal channel, the seismic profiles show an ∼6.75 km long, 3.2 km wide and 200 m thick sedimentary sequence with chaotic to weakly stratified reflections we interpret as a grounding line fan deposited by a subglacial drainage channel directly upstream of the basal channel. Further downstream the seabed has a different character; it consists of harder, stratified consolidated sediments, deposited under different glaciological circumstances, or possibly bedrock. In contrast to the standard perception of a rapid change in ice shelf thickness just downstream of the grounding line, we find a flat topography of the ice shelf base with an almost constant ice thickness gradient along-flow, indicating only little basal melting, but an initial widening of the basal channel, which we ascribe to melting along its flanks. Our findings provide a detailed view of a more complex interaction between the ocean and subglacial hydrology to form basal channels in ice shelves.

Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile in- dependent regional fields into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-minute bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography (ALBMAP bedrock topography) for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. The position of the merging line is individually chosen in different sectors in order to get the best out of each data set. High resolution gridded data for upper and lower ice surface topographies and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier are carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), gridded, and blended into the existing bathymetry map. The resulting global 1-minute topography data set (RTopo-1) contains maps for upper and lower ice surface heights, bedrock bathymetry, and consistent masks for open ocean, grounded ice, floating ice, and bare land surface.

The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over past decades through the accelerated flow of its glaciers, conditioned by ocean temperature and bed topography. Glaciers retreating along retrograde slopes (that is, the bed elevation drops in the inland direction) are potentially unstable, while subglacial ridges slow down the glacial retreat. Despite major advances in the mapping of subglacial bed topography, significant sectors of Antarctica remain poorly resolved and critical spatial details are missing. Here we present a novel, high-resolution and physically based description of Antarctic bed topography using mass conservation. Our results reveal previously unknown basal features with major implications for glacier response to climate change. For example, glaciers flowing across the Transantarctic Mountains are protected by broad, stabilizing ridges. Conversely, in the marine basin of Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, we find retrograde slopes along Ninnis and Denman glaciers, with stabilizing slopes beneath Moscow University, Totten and Lambert glacier system, despite corrections in bed elevation of up to 1 km for the latter. This transformative description of bed topography redefines the high- and lower-risk sectors for rapid sea level rise from Antarctica; it will also significantly impact model projections of sea level rise from Antarctica in the coming centuries.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.