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Surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet must be better understood to document the current Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. In situ point data using snow stakes and ice cores are often used to evaluate the state of the ice sheet's mass balance, as well as to assess SMB derived from regional climate models, which are then used to produce future climate projections. However, spatial representativeness of individual point data remains largely unknown, particularly in the coastal regions of Antarctica with highly variable terrain. Here, we compare ice core data collected at the summit of eight ice rises along the coast of Dronning Maud Land, as well as at the Dome Fuji site, and shallow ice-penetrating radar data over these regions. Shallow radar data have the advantage of being spatially extensive, with a temporal resolution that varies between a yearly and multi-year resolution, from which we can derive a SMB record over the entire radar survey. This comparison therefore allows us to evaluate the spatial variability of SMB and the spatial representativeness of ice-core-derived SMB. We found that ice core mean SMB is very local, and the difference with radar-derived SMB increases in a logarithmic fashion as the surface covered by the radar data increases, with a plateau ∼ 1–2 km away from the ice crest for most ice rises, where there are strong wind–topography interactions, and ∼ 10 km where the ice shelves begin. The relative uncertainty in measuring SMB also increases rapidly as we move away from the ice core sites. Five of our ice rise sites show a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability, while the other three sites show that it is limited to a surface area between 20–120 km2. The Dome Fuji site, on the other hand, shows a small difference between pointwise and area mean SMB, as well as a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability. We found no simple parameterization that could represent the spatial variability observed at all the sites. However, these data clearly indicate that local spatial SMB variability must be considered when assessing mass balance, as well as comparing modeled SMB values to point field data, and therefore must be included in the estimate of the uncertainty of the observations.

We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq; %) and intensity (MPI-int; K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23%–35%, MPI-int 1.2–2.1 K), lowest (2%–3%, <0 K) for the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10%–24% and 0.6–1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3–4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, fringing the southern Weddell Sea, is Antarctica's second largest ice shelf. At present, basal melt rates are low due to active dense water formation; however, model projections suggest a drastic increase in the future due to enhanced inflow of open-ocean warm water. Mooring observations from 2014 to 2016 along the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough (76°S) revealed a distinct seasonal cycle with inflow if Warm Deep Water during summer and autumn. Here we present extended time series showing an exceptionally warm and long inflow in 2017, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0.5°C. Warm temperatures persisted throughout winter, associated with a fresh anomaly, which lead to a change in stratification over the shelf, favoring an earlier inflow in the following summer. We suggest that the fresh anomaly developed upstream after anomalous summer sea ice melting and contributed to a shoaling of the shelf break thermocline.

Abstract Individual heterogeneity in diet and foraging behaviour is common in wild animal populations, and can be a strong determinant of how populations respond to environmental changes. Within populations, variation in foraging behaviour and the occurrence of individual tactics in relation to resources distribution can help explain differences in individual fitness, and ultimately identify important factors affecting population dynamics. We examined how foraging behaviour and habitat during the breeding period related to the physiological state of a long-ranging seabird adapted to sea ice, the Antarctic petrel Thalassoica antarctica. Firstly, using GPS tracking and state-switching movement modelling (hidden Markov models) on 124 individual birds, we tested for the occurrence of distinct foraging tactics within our study population. Our results highlight a large variation in the movement and foraging behaviour of a very mobile seabird, and delineate distinct foraging tactics along a gradient from foraging in dense pack ice to foraging in open water. Secondly, we investigated the effects of these foraging tactics on individual state at return from a foraging trip. We combined movement data with morphometric and physiological measurements of a suite of plasma metabolites that provided a general picture of a bird's individual state. Foraging in denser sea ice was associated with lower gain in body mass during brooding, as well as lower level of energy acquisition (plasma triacylglycerol) during both brooding and incubation. We found no clear relationship between the foraging tactic in relation to sea ice and the energetic stress (changes in plasma corticosterone), energetic balance (β-hydroxybutyrate) or trophic level (δ15N). However, a shorter foraging range was related to both the energetic balance (positively) and the trophic level (negatively). Our results highlight a diverse range of foraging tactics in relation to sea ice in Antarctic petrels. While the various foraging tactics do not seem to strongly alter energetic balance, they may affect other aspects of Antarctic petrels' physiology. Future changes in sea-ice habitats can thus be expected to have an impact on the individual state of seabirds such as Antarctic petrels, which could ultimately affect their population dynamics. Nonetheless, strong individual heterogeneity in the use of sea-ice habitats by a typical pagophilic species might strengthen its resilience to environmental changes and in particular to forecasted sea-ice loss. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.