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We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

Petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites, associated with the contemporary and legacy effects of human activities, remain a serious environmental problem in the Antarctic and Arctic. The management of contaminated sites in these regions is often confounded by the logistical, environmental, legislative and financial challenges associated with operating in polar environments. In response to the need for efficient and safe methods for managing contaminated sites, several technologies have been adapted for on-site or in situ application in these regions. This article reviews six technologies which are currently being adapted or developed for the remediation of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites in the Antarctic and Arctic. Bioremediation, landfarming, biopiles, phytoremediation, electrokinetic remediation and permeable reactive barriers are reviewed and discussed with respect to their advantages, limitations and potential for the long-term management of soil and groundwater contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons in the Antarctic and Arctic. Although these technologies demonstrate potential for application in the Antarctic and Arctic, their effectiveness is dependent on site-specific factors including terrain, soil moisture and temperature, freeze–thaw processes and the indigenous microbial population. The importance of detailed site assessment prior to on-site or in situ implementation is emphasized, and it is argued that coupling of technologies represents one strategy for effective, long-term management of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites in the Antarctic and Arctic. Keywords: Petroleum hydrocarbons; remediation; Antarctica; Arctic; cold regions; contaminated site.

The interaction between the interplanetary magnetic field and the geomagnetic field sets up a large-scale circulation in the magnetosphere. This circulation is also reflected in the magnetically connected ionosphere. In this paper, we present a study of ionospheric convection based on Cluster Electron Drift Instrument (EDI) satellite measurements covering both hemispheres and obtained over a full solar cycle. The results from this study show that average flow patterns and polar cap potentials for a given orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field can be very different in the two hemispheres. In particular during southward directed interplanetary magnetic field conditions, and thus enhanced energy input from the solar wind, the measurements show that the southern polar cap has a higher cross polar cap potential. There are persistent north-south asymmetries, which cannot easily be explained by the influence of external drivers. These persistent asymmetries are primarily a result of the significant differences in the strength and configuration of the geomagnetic field between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Since the ionosphere is magnetically connected to the magnetosphere, this difference will also be reflected in the magnetosphere in the form of different feedback from the two hemispheres. Consequently, local ionospheric conditions and the geomagnetic field configuration are important for north-south asymmetries in large regions of geospace.

Magnetic perturbations on ground at high latitudes are directly associated only with the divergence-free component of the height-integrated horizontal ionospheric current, J⊥,df. Here we show how J⊥,df can be expressed as the total horizontal current J⊥ minus its curl-free component, the latter being completely determined by the global Birkeland current pattern. Thus, in regions where J⊥=0, the global Birkeland current distribution alone determines the local magnetic perturbation. We show with observations from ground and space that in the polar cap, the ground magnetic field perturbations tend to align with the Birkeland current contribution in darkness but not in sunlight. We also show that in sunlight, the magnetic perturbations are typically such that the equivalent overhead current is antiparallel to the convection, indicating that the Hall current system dominates. Thus, the ground magnetic field in the polar cap relates to different current systems in sunlight and in darkness.

The role of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on exposure-related endocrine effects has been poorly investigated in wild birds. This is the case for stress hormones including corticosterone (CORT). Some studies have suggested that environmental exposure to PCBs and altered CORT secretion might be associated. Here we investigated the relationships between blood PCB concentrations and circulating CORT levels in seven free-ranging polar seabird species occupying different trophic positions, and hence covering a wide range of PCB exposure. Blood ∑7PCB concentrations (range: 61–115,632 ng/g lw) were positively associated to baseline or stress-induced CORT levels in three species and negatively associated to stress-induced CORT levels in one species. Global analysis suggests that in males, baseline CORT levels generally increase with increasing blood ∑7PCB concentrations, whereas stress-induced CORT levels decrease when reaching high blood ∑7PCB concentrations. This study suggests that the nature of the PCB-CORT relationships may depend on the level of PCB exposure.

Seabirds often have high loads of contaminants. These contaminants have endocrine disrupting properties but their relationships with some endocrine mechanisms are still poorly investigated in free-living organisms. This is the case for the stress response which shifts energy investment away from reproduction and redirects it towards survival. In birds, this stress response is achieved through a release of corticosterone and is also accompanied by a decrease in circulating prolactin, an anterior pituitary hormone widely involved in regulating parental cares. We measured blood concentrations of some legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and mercury (Hg) and examined their relationships with the corticosterone and prolactin responses of known-age (9–46years old) incubating snow petrels (Pagodroma nivea) to a standardized capture/handling stress protocol. In this Antarctic seabird, we also investigated whether high contaminant burden correlates with a higher occurrence of egg neglect, a frequently observed behavior in snow petrels. POPs and Hg were unrelated to age. Stress-induced corticosterone concentrations were positively related to POPs in both sexes, and stress-induced prolactin concentrations were negatively related to Hg in males. Egg-neglect behavior was not related to POPs burden, but males with higher Hg concentrations were more likely to neglect their egg. This suggests that in birds, relationships between age and contaminants are complex and that even low to moderate concentrations of POPs and Hg are significantly related to hormonal secretion. In this Antarctic species, exposure to legacy POPs and Hg could make individuals more susceptible to environmental stressors such as ongoing disturbances in Polar Regions.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

Migratory routes and the areas used during winter have probably been selected to maximize fitness by providing favorable environmental conditions outside the breeding season. In polar environments, because of the extreme winter weather, most breeding species migrate to encounter better conditions in areas that can differ between and also within species. Using geolocation sensors, we found that south polar skuas Catharacta maccormicki from 2 distant populations breeding on the Antarctic continent along the Atlantic and Indian Oceans migrate northward to winter in tropical Indian Ocean and in temperate North Pacific waters, respectively. Most individuals from each population winter in different environmental conditions, with water temperatures ranging from 16 to 29°C. Nevertheless, they have very similar activity patterns, spending more than 80% of their time on the water, and their feather δ15N values suggest that they probably feed at similar trophic levels during the molt. During overwintering, the overall and constant low activity level may be partly imposed by molting constraints, but it also suggests that trophic conditions are good for skuas. The wintering areas of the species correspond to sectors of high concentrations of breeding or wintering tropical, Northern, and Southern Hemisphere seabird species that are likely to be kleptoparasitized by skuas. A certain degree of individual variation exists within each population, which induces a spatial overlap in the wintering grounds of distant breeding populations. These results have potential important consequences in terms of fitness, genetic divergence, and susceptibility to climate change and marine pollution. KEYWORDS: Catharacta maccormicki · Geolocators · Migration · Population-specific strategies · Stable isotopes.

In the ongoing discussion of the distribution of protists, whether they are globally distributed or endemic to one or both of the polar regions is the subject of heated debate. In this study, we compared next-generation sequencing data from the Arctic and the Southern oceans to reveal the extent of similarities and dissimilarities between the protist communities in the polar regions. We found a total overlap of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) between the two regions of 11.2%. On closer inspection of different taxonomic groups, the overlap ranged between 5.5% (haptophytes) and 14.5% (alveolates). Within the different groups, the proportion of OTUs occurring in both regions greatly differed between the polar regions. On the one hand, the overlap between these two regions is remarkable, given the geographical distance between them. On the other hand, one could expect a greater overlap of OTUs between these regions on account of the similar environmental conditions. The overlap suggests a connection between the polar regions for at least certain species or that the evolutionary divergence has been slow, relative to the timescales of isolation. The different proportions of common OTUs among the groups or regions may be a result of different life cycle strategies or environmental adaptations. Keywords: 18S rDNA; bipolar; next-generation sequencing; phytoplankton; polar regions; protist distribution.