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Tests of biodiversity theory have been controversial partly because alternative formulations of the same theory seemingly yield different conclusions. This has been a particular challenge for neutral theory, which has dominated tests of biodiversity theory over the last decade. Neutral theory attributes differences in species abundances to chance variation in individuals’ fates, rather than differences in species traits. By identifying common features of different neutral models, we conduct a uniquely robust test of neutral theory across a global dataset of marine assemblages. Consistently, abundances vary more among species than neutral theory predicts, challenging the hypothesis that community dynamics are approximately neutral, and implicating species differences as a key driver of community structure in nature.Explaining patterns of commonness and rarity is fundamental for understanding and managing biodiversity. Consequently, a key test of biodiversity theory has been how well ecological models reproduce empirical distributions of species abundances. However, ecological models with very different assumptions can predict similar species abundance distributions, whereas models with similar assumptions may generate very different predictions. This complicates inferring processes driving community structure from model fits to data. Here, we use an approximation that captures common features of “neutral” biodiversity models—which assume ecological equivalence of species—to test whether neutrality is consistent with patterns of commonness and rarity in the marine biosphere. We do this by analyzing 1,185 species abundance distributions from 14 marine ecosystems ranging from intertidal habitats to abyssal depths, and from the tropics to polar regions. Neutrality performs substantially worse than a classical nonneutral alternative: empirical data consistently show greater heterogeneity of species abundances than expected under neutrality. Poor performance of neutral theory is driven by its consistent inability to capture the dominance of the communities’ most-abundant species. Previous tests showing poor performance of a neutral model for a particular system often have been followed by controversy about whether an alternative formulation of neutral theory could explain the data after all. However, our approach focuses on common features of neutral models, revealing discrepancies with a broad range of empirical abundance distributions. These findings highlight the need for biodiversity theory in which ecological differences among species, such as niche differences and demographic trade-offs, play a central role.

Low water availability is one of the principal stressors for terrestrial invertebrates in the polar regions, determining the survival of individuals, the success of species and the composition of communities. The Arctic and Antarctic dipterans Heleomyza borealis and Eretmoptera murphyi spend the majority of their biennial life cycles as larvae, and so are exposed to the full range of environmental conditions, including low water availability, over the annual cycle. In the current study, the desiccation resistance and desiccation tolerance of larvae were investigated, as well as their capacity for cross-tolerance to temperature stress. Larvae of H. borealis showed high levels of desiccation resistance, only losing 6.9% of their body water after 12 days at 98.2% relative humidity (RH). In contrast, larvae of E. murphyi lost 46.7% of their body water after 12 days at the same RH. Survival of E. murphyi larvae remained high in spite of this loss (>80% survival). Following exposure to 98.2% RH, larvae of E. murphyi showed enhanced survival at −18°C for 2 h. The supercooling point of larvae of both species was also lowered following prior treatment at 98.2% RH. Cross-tolerance to high temperatures (37 or 38.5°C) was not noted following desiccation in E. murphyi, and survival even fell at 37°C following a 12-day pre-treatment. The current study demonstrates two different strategies of responding to low water availability in the polar regions and indicates the potential for cross-tolerance, a capacity which is likely to be beneficial in the ever-changing polar climate. Keywords: Acclimation; dipteran; supercooling point; temperature; cross-tolerance.

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges.

The concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) in 35 soil samples collected from Fildes Peninsula in the Antarctic, Ny-Ålesund in the Arctic, and Zhangmu-Nyalam in the Tibetan Plateau were reported in this study. A comparison of the total concentration and TEQ of PCDD/Fs at the Three Poles was conducted. Both the total concentration and TEQ of PCDD/Fs demonstrates a decreasing trend in the order of Zhangmu-Nyalam (mean: 26.22 pg/g, 0.37 pg I-TEQ/g)>Ny-Ålesund (mean: 9.97 pg/g, 0.33 pg I-TEQ/g)>Fildes Peninsula (mean: 2.18 pg/g, 0.015 pg I-TEQ/g) (p<0.05). In all samples, the congener and homologue profiles dominated with higher (seven and eight) chlorinated PCDD/Fs (more than 85% of the total mass percentage of PCDD/Fs) at the Three Poles. Finally, a FLEXPART backward simulation was used to preliminarily identify the potential local and regional anthropogenic sources of PCDD/Fs. The results imply that the air masses passing over surrounding regions with significant PCDD/F emissions might contribute to the occurrence of PCDD/Fs in both the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau.

A new satellite-based passive microwave sea-ice concentration product developed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Data Record (CDR) programme is evaluated via comparison with other passive microwave-derived estimates. The new product leverages two well-established concentration algorithms, known as the NASA Team and Bootstrap, both developed at and produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The sea-ice estimates compare well with similar GSFC products while also fulfilling all NOAA CDR initial operation capability (IOC) requirements, including (1) self-describing file format, (2) ISO 19115-2 compliant collection-level metadata, (3) Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant file-level metadata, (4) grid-cell level metadata (data quality fields), (5) fully automated and reproducible processing and (6) open online access to full documentation with version control, including source code and an algorithm theoretical basic document. The primary limitations of the GSFC products are lack of metadata and use of untracked manual corrections to the output fields. Smaller differences occur from minor variations in processing methods by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (for the CDR fields) and NASA (for the GSFC fields). The CDR concentrations do have some differences from the constituent GSFC concentrations, but trends and variability are not substantially different. Keywords: Sea ice; Arctic and Antarctic oceans; climate data record; evaluation; passive microwave remote sensing.