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Abstract Observed Antarctic sea ice trends up to 2015 have a distinct regional and seasonal pattern, with a loss during austral summer and autumn in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and a year-round increase in the Ross Sea. Global climate models generally failed to reproduce the magnitude of sea ice trends implying that the models miss relevant mechanisms. One possible mechanism is basal meltwater, which is generally not included in the current generation of climate models. Previous work on the effects of meltwater on sea ice has focused on thermodynamic processes. However, local freshening also leads to dynamic changes, affecting ocean currents through geostrophic balance. Using a coupled ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf model, we demonstrate that basal melting can intensify coastal currents in West Antarctica and the westward transport of sea ice. This change in transport results in sea ice anomalies consistent with observations, and may explain the disparity between climate models and observations.

From the Eocene (?50 million years ago) to today, Southern Ocean circulation has evolved from the existence of two ocean gyres to the dominance of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It has generally been thought that the opening of Southern Ocean gateways in the late Eocene, in addition to the alignment of westerly winds with these gateways or the presence of the Antarctic ice sheet, was a sufficient requirement for the transition to an ACC of similar strength to its modern equivalent. Nevertheless, models representing these changes produce a much weaker ACC. Here we show, using an eddying ocean model, that the missing ingredient in the transition to a modern ACC is deep convection around the Antarctic continent. This deep convection is caused by cold temperatures and high salinities due to sea-ice production around the Antarctic continent, leading to both the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and a modern-strength ACC.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is pivotal for oceanic heat and carbon sequestrations on multidecadal to millennial timescales. The Weddell Sea contributes nearly a half of global AABW through Weddell Sea Deep Water and denser underlying Weddell Sea Bottom Water that form on the continental shelves via sea-ice production. Here we report an observed 30% reduction of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume since 1992, with the largest decrease in the densest classes. This is probably driven by a multidecadal reduction in dense-water production over southern continental shelf associated with a >40% decline in the sea-ice formation rate. The ice production decrease is driven by northerly wind trend, related to a phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation since the early 1990s, superposed by Amundsen Sea Low intrinsic variability. These results reveal key influences on exported AABW to the Atlantic abyss and their sensitivity to large-scale, multidecadal climate variability.

The Southern Ocean is a major sink of anthropogenic CO2 and an important foraging area for top trophic level consumers. However, iron limitation sets an upper limit to primary productivity. Here we report on a considerably dense late summer phytoplankton bloom spanning 9000 km2 in the open ocean of the eastern Weddell Gyre. Over its 2.5 months duration, the bloom accumulated up to 20 g C m−2 of organic matter, which is unusually high for Southern Ocean open waters. We show that, over 1997–2019, this open ocean bloom was likely driven by anomalies in easterly winds that push sea ice southwards and favor the upwelling of Warm Deep Water enriched in hydrothermal iron and, possibly, other iron sources. This recurring open ocean bloom likely facilitates enhanced carbon export and sustains high standing stocks of Antarctic krill, supporting feeding hot spots for marine birds and baleen whales.

The transport of oceanic heat towards the Antarctic continental margin is central to the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent modeling efforts challenge our view on where and how the on-shelf heat flux occurs, suggesting that it is largest where dense shelf waters cascade down the continental slope. Here we provide observational evidence supporting this claim. Using records from moored instruments, we link the downslope flow of dense water from the Filchner overflow to upslope and on-shelf flow of warm water.

Abstract The additional water from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves due to climate-induced melt can impact ocean circulation and global climate. However, the major processes driving melt are not adequately represented in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here, we analyze a novel multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 models with consistent meltwater addition to examine the robustness of the modeled response to meltwater, which has not been possible in previous single-model studies. Antarctic meltwater addition induces a substantial weakening of open-ocean deep convection. Additionally, Antarctic Bottom Water warms, its volume contracts, and the sea surface cools. However, the magnitude of the reduction varies greatly across models, with differing anomalies correlated with their respective mean-state climatology, indicating the state-dependency of the climate response to meltwater. A better representation of the Southern Ocean mean state is necessary for narrowing the inter-model spread of response to Antarctic meltwater.

Understanding how climate change influences ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is one of the greatest challenges for projecting future sea level rise. The East Antarctic ice shelf cavities host cold water masses that limit melting, and only a few short-term observational studies exist on what drives warm water intrusions into these cavities. We analyse nine years of continuous oceanographic records from below Fimbulisen and relate them to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. On monthly time scales, warm inflow events are associated with weakened coastal easterlies reducing downwelling in front of the ice shelf. Since 2016, however, we observe sustained warming, with inflowing Warm Deep Water temperatures reaching above 0 °C. This is concurrent with an increase in satellite-derived basal melt rates of 0.62 m yr−1, which nearly doubles the basal mass loss at this relatively cold ice shelf cavity. We find that this transition is linked to a reduction in coastal sea ice cover through an increase in atmosphere–ocean momentum transfer and to a strengthening of remote subpolar westerlies. These results imply that East Antarctic ice shelves may become more exposed to warmer waters with a projected increase of circum-Antarctic westerlies, increasing this region’s relevance for sea level rise projections.

At any one time 130 000 icebergs are afloat in the Southern Ocean; 97% of these are too small to be registered in current satellite-based databases, yet the melting of these small icebergs provides a major input to the Southern Ocean. We use a unique set of visual size observations of 53 000 icebergs in the South Atlantic Ocean, the SCAR International Iceberg Database, to derive average iceberg dissolution rates. Fracture into two parts is the dominant dissolution process for tabular icebergs, with an average half-life of 30 days for icebergs <4 km length and 60 days for larger icebergs. Complete shatter producing many icebergs <1 km length is rare. A side attrition rate of 0.23 m d−1 combined with drift speed of 6 km d−1, or any proportional change in both numbers fits the observed changes in iceberg distribution. The largest injection into the Southern Ocean of fresh water and any iceberg-transported material takes place in a ~2.3 × 10⁶ km2 zone extending east-northeast from the Antarctic Peninsula to the Greenwich meridian. The iceberg contribution to salinities and temperatures, with maximum contribution north of the Weddell Sea, differs in some regions, from those indicated by tracking large icebergs.

The Southern Ocean greatly contributes to the regulation of the global climate by controlling important heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. Rates of climate change on decadal timescales are therefore impacted by oceanic processes taking place in the Southern Ocean, yet too little is known about these processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent processes at scales that are not well captured in current Earth system models. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate programme was launched to address this knowledge gap, with the overall objective to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key physical processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. Here, we provide a brief overview of the programme, as well as a summary of some of the scientific progress achieved during its first half. Advances range from new evidence of the importance of specific processes in Southern Ocean ventilation rate (e.g. storm-induced turbulence, sea–ice meltwater fronts, wind-induced gyre circulation, dense shelf water formation and abyssal mixing) to refined descriptions of the physical changes currently ongoing in the Southern Ocean and of their link with global climate. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities’.

Dense, cold waters formed on Antarctic continental shelves descend along the Antarctic continental margin, where they mix with other Southern Ocean waters to form Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). AABW then spreads into the deepest parts of all major ocean basins, isolating heat and carbon from the atmosphere for centuries. Despite AABW’s key role in regulating Earth’s climate on long time scales and in recording Southern Ocean conditions, AABW remains poorly observed. This lack of observational data is mostly due to two factors. First, AABW originates on the Antarctic continental shelf and slope where in situ measurements are limited and ocean observations by satellites are hampered by persistent sea ice cover and long periods of darkness in winter. Second, north of the Antarctic continental slope, AABW is found below approximately 2 km depth, where in situ observations are also scarce and satellites cannot provide direct measurements. Here, we review progress made during the past decades in observing AABW. We describe 1) long-term monitoring obtained by moorings, by ship-based surveys, and beneath ice shelves through bore holes; 2) the recent development of autonomous observing tools in coastal Antarctic and deep ocean systems; and 3) alternative approaches including data assimilation models and satellite-derived proxies. The variety of approaches is beginning to transform our understanding of AABW, including its formation processes, temporal variability, and contribution to the lower limb of the global ocean meridional overturning circulation. In particular, these observations highlight the key role played by winds, sea ice, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet in AABW-related processes. We conclude by discussing future avenues for observing and understanding AABW, impressing the need for a sustained and coordinated observing system.

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt.