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An urgent necessity to understand the effect of climatic change on scleractinian cold-water coral (CWC) ecosystems has arisen due to increasing ocean warming and acidification over the last decades. Here, presence-absence records of 12 scleractinian CWC species from research expeditions and the literature were compiled and merged with model-generated pseudo-absence data and 14 environmental variables. The best-fitting results of 9 species distribution models (SDMs) were combined to an ensemble habitat suitability model for CWCs in the northern Southern Ocean (Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula) by means of the open-source R package "biomod2". Furthermore, 2 future scenarios of increasing bottom sea temperature were used to investigate the spatial response of scleractinians to temperature change. The resulting (current scenario) potential ecological niches were evaluated with good to excellent statistical measures. The results predict that present areas of highest probability of CWC occurrence are around the Antarctic Peninsula, South Orkney Islands and Queen Maud Land, with preference to geomorphic features such as seamounts. The distribution of CWC habitats is mainly driven by distance to coast and ice shelves, bathymetry, benthic calcium carbonate, and temperature. Under warming conditions, CWCs are predicted to expand their distribution range by 6 and 10% in 2037 and 2150, respectively, compared to the present distribution. The future models using increased bottom temperature revealed a stable CWC distribution for most parts of the study area. However, habitat shifts are expected to the Filchner Trough region, the adjacent continental shelves, as well as to the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula. KEYWORDS: Scleractinian coral · Ensemble models · Environmental change · Habitat suitability model · Spatial distribution · Weddell Sea. Antarctica

An object-based method for automatic iceberg detection has been applied to Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar images in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), Antarctica. The images were acquired between 1 January 2006 and 8 April 2012 under varying meteorological, oceanographic and sea-ice conditions. During this time period, the icebergs were counted (average 1370 ± 50) and their surface area was estimated (average 1537.5 km2). The average surface area was about 2.5 times larger than the annual calved area (620 km2), indicating that the average iceberg age in the ASE is about 2.5 years, which was confirmed by observed residence times based on drift tracks. Most of the ASE icebergs were less than 1500 m long, and almost 90% of them were smaller than 2 km2. The proportion of small- and medium-sized icebergs (84.4%) was significantly higher than in the open ocean, where large icebergs (>10 km2) account for nearly the whole iceberg surface area. The opposite was true for the freshly calved icebergs in the ASE. The data indicate that the creation of icebergs in the ASE is dominated by steady small- to medium-scale calving from ice shelves fringing the embayment. In addition, rare calving events of giant icebergs occur on a decadal timescale. There is also some import of icebergs from the Bellingshausen Sea further east along the coast, in particular after large calving events there.

In the Southern Ocean, polynyas exhibit enhanced rates of primary productivity and represent large seasonal sinks for atmospheric CO2. Three contrasting east Antarctic polynyas were visited in late December to early January 2017: the Dalton, Mertz, and Ninnis polynyas. In the Mertz and Ninnis polynyas, phytoplankton biomass (average of 322 and 354 mg chlorophyll a (Chl a)/m2, respectively) and net community production (5.3 and 4.6 mol C/m2, respectively) were approximately 3 times those measured in the Dalton polynya (average of 122 mg Chl a/m2 and 1.8 mol C/m2). Phytoplankton communities also differed between the polynyas. Diatoms were thriving in the Mertz and Ninnis polynyas but not in the Dalton polynya, where Phaeocystis antarctica dominated. These strong regional differences were explored using physiological, biological, and physical parameters. The most likely drivers of the observed higher productivity in the Mertz and Ninnis were the relatively shallow inflow of iron-rich modified Circumpolar Deep Water onto the shelf as well as a very large sea ice meltwater contribution. The productivity contrast between the three polynyas could not be explained by (1) the input of glacial meltwater, (2) the presence of Ice Shelf Water, or (3) stratification of the mixed layer. Our results show that physical drivers regulate the productivity of polynyas, suggesting that the response of biological productivity and carbon export to future change will vary among polynyas.

The buttressing potential of ice shelves is modulated by changes in subshelf melting, in response to changing ocean conditions. We analyze the temporal variability in subshelf melting using an autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder near the grounding line of the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. When combined with additional oceanographic evidence of seasonal variations in the stratification and the amplification of diurnal tides around the shelf break topography (Gunnerus Bank), the results suggest an intricate mechanism in which topographic waves control the seasonal melt rate variability near the grounding line. This mechanism has not been considered before and has the potential to enhance local melt rates without advecting different water masses. As topographic waves seem to strengthen in a stratified ocean, the freshening of Antarctic surface water, predicted by observations and models, is likely to increase future basal melting in this area.

The Weddell Gyre (WG) is one of the main oceanographic features of the Southern Ocean south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current which plays an influential role in global ocean circulation as well as gas exchange with the atmosphere. We review the state-of-the art knowledge concerning the WG from an interdisciplinary perspective, uncovering critical aspects needed to understand this system's role in shaping the future evolution of oceanic heat and carbon uptake over the next decades. The main limitations in our knowledge are related to the conditions in this extreme and remote environment, where the polar night, very low air temperatures, and presence of sea ice year-round hamper field and remotely sensed measurements. We highlight the importance of winter and under-ice conditions in the southern WG, the role that new technology will play to overcome present-day sampling limitations, the importance of the WG connectivity to the low-latitude oceans and atmosphere, and the expected intensification of the WG circulation as the westerly winds intensify. Greater international cooperation is needed to define key sampling locations that can be visited by any research vessel in the region. Existing transects sampled since the 1980s along the Prime Meridian and along an East-West section at ~62°S should be maintained with regularity to provide answers to the relevant questions. This approach will provide long-term data to determine trends and will improve representation of processes for regional, Antarctic-wide, and global modeling efforts—thereby enhancing predictions of the WG in global ocean circulation and climate.

Surface heat fluxes from four atmospheric reanalyses in the Southern Ocean are evaluated using air–sea measurements obtained from the Aurora Australis during off-winter seasons in 2010–12. The icebreaker tracked between Hobart, Tasmania (ca. 42°S), and the Antarctic continent, providing in situ benchmarks for the surface energy budget change in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean (58–42°S) and the eastern Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ, 68–58°S). We find that the reanalyses show a high-level agreement among themselves, but this agreement reflects a universal bias, not a “truth.” Downward shortwave radiation (SW↓) is overestimated (warm biased) and downward longwave radiation (LW↓) is underestimated (cold biased), an indication that the cloud amount in all models is too low. The ocean surface in both regimes shows a heat gain from the atmosphere when averaged over the seven months (October–April). However, the ocean heat gain in reanalyses is overestimated by 10–36 W m−2 (80–220%) in the MIZ but underestimated by 6–20 W m−2 (7–25%) in the Subantarctic. The biases in SW↓ and LW↓ cancel out each other in the MIZ, causing the surface heat budget to be dictated by the underestimation bias in sensible heat loss. These reanalyses biases affect the surface energy budget in the Southern Ocean by meaningfully affecting the timing of the seasonal transition from net heat gain to net heat loss at the surface and the relative strength of SW↓ at different regimes in summer, when the length-of-day effect can lead to increased SW↓ at high latitudes.