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This study compares CL51 ceilometer observations made at Scott Base, Antarctica, with statistics from the ERA5, JRA55, and MERRA2 reanalyses. To enhance the comparison we use a lidar instrument simulator to derive cloud statistics from the reanalyses which account for instrumental factors. The cloud occurrence in the three reanalyses is slightly overestimated above 3 km, but displays a larger underestimation below 3 km relative to observations. Unlike previous studies, we see no relationship between relative humidity and cloud occurrence biases, suggesting that the cloud biases do not result from the representation of moisture. We also show that the seasonal variation of cloud occurrence and cloud fraction, defined as the vertically integrated cloud occurrence, are small in both the observations and the reanalyses. We also examine the quality of the cloud representation for a set of weather states derived from ERA5 surface winds. The variability associated with grouping cloud occurrence based on weather state is much larger than the seasonal variation, highlighting weather state is a strong control of cloud occurrence. All the reanalyses continue to display underestimates below 3 km and overestimates above 3 km for each weather state. But the variability in ERA5 statistics matches the changes in the observations better than the other reanalyses. We also use a machine learning scheme to estimate the quantity of supercooled liquid water cloud from the ceilometer observations. Ceilometer low-level supercooled liquid water cloud occurrences are considerably larger than values derived from the reanalyses, further highlighting the poor representation of low-level clouds in the reanalyses.

Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

Maritime historical documentary sources of weather and state of sea surface including sea ice can aid in filling a known climate knowledge gap for the Southern Ocean and Antarctica for the first half of the 20th century. This study presents a data set of marine climate, sea ice and icebergs recovered from a collection of logbooks from mainly Norwegian whaling factory ships that operated in the Southern Ocean during 1929-1940. The data set comprises some 8000 weather and 4000 sea ice/open sea records from austral summers of the study period. This paper further discusses the structure and content of most common Norwegian maritime documentary sources of the period along with the practices of logging information relevant for the study, such as time keeping, positioning and making weather observations. An emphasis was made on recovery of notes on sea ice and icebergs and their interpretation in terms of WMO categories of sea ice concentration. Data, including ship-related metadata from all individual documents are homogenized and structured to a common machine-readable format that simplifies its ingestion into relevant climate data depositories.

The polar regions are facing a wide range of compounding challenges, from climate change to increased human activity. Infrastructure, rescue services, and disaster response capabilities are limited in these remote environments. Relevant and usable weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) information is vital for safety, activity success, adaptation, and environmental protection. This has been a key focus for the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular its “Societal and Economic Research and Applications” (PPP-SERA) Task Team, which together over a decade have sought to understand polar WWIC information use in relation to operational needs, constraints, and decision contexts to inform the development of relevant services. To understand research progress and gaps on WWIC information use during the PPP (2013–23), we undertook a systematic bibliometric review of aligned scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles (n = 43), examining collaborations, topics, methods, and regional differences. Themes to emerge included activity and context, human factors, information needs, situational awareness, experience, local and Indigenous knowledge, and sharing of information. We observed an uneven representation of disciplinary backgrounds, geographic locations, research topics, and sectoral foci. Our review signifies an overall lack of Antarctic WWIC services research and a dominant focus on Arctic sea ice operations and risks. We noted with concern a mismatch between user needs and services provided. Our findings can help to improve WWIC services’ dissemination, communication effectiveness, and actionable knowledge provision for users and guide future research as the critical need for salient weather services across the polar regions remains beyond the PPP. Significance Statement Every day, people in the Arctic and Antarctic use weather, water, ice, and climate information to plan and carry out outdoor activities and operations in a safe way. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction, technology, and product development, barriers to accessing and effectively communicating high-quality usable observations, forecasts, and actionable knowledge remain. Poorer services, prediction accuracy, and interpretation are exacerbated by a lack of integrated social science research on relevant topics and a mismatch between the services provided and user needs. As a result, continued user engagement, research focusing on information use, risk communication, decision-making processes, and the application of science for services remain highly relevant to reducing risks and improving safety for people living, visiting, and working in the polar regions.

Accurate satellite measurements of the thickness of Antarctic sea ice are urgently needed but pose a particular challenge. The Antarctic data presented here were produced using a method to derive the sea ice thickness from 1.4 GHz brightness temperatures previously developed for the Arctic, with only modified auxiliary data. The ability to observe the thickness of thin sea ice using this method is limited to cold conditions, meaning it is only reasonable during the freezing period, typically March to October. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) level-3 sea ice thickness product contains estimates of the sea ice thickness and its uncertainty up to a thickness of about 1 m. The sea ice thickness is provided as a daily average on a polar stereographic projection grid with a sample resolution of 12.5 km, while the SMOS brightness temperature data used have a footprint size of about 35–40 km in diameter. Data from SMOS have been available since 2010, and the mission's operation has been extended to continue until at least the end of 2025. Here we compare two versions of the SMOS Antarctic sea ice thickness product which are based on different level-1 input data (v3.2 based on SMOS L1C v620 and v3.3 based on SMOS L1C 724). A validation is performed to generate a first baseline reference for future improvements of the retrieval algorithm and synergies with other sensors. Sea ice thickness measurements to validate the SMOS product are particularly rare in Antarctica, especially during the winter season and for the valid range of thicknesses. From the available validation measurements, we selected datasets from the Weddell Sea that have varying degrees of representativeness: Helicopter-based EM Bird (HEM), Surface and Under-Ice Trawl (SUIT), and stationary Upward-Looking Sonars (ULS). While the helicopter can measure hundreds of kilometres, SUIT's use is limited to distances of a few kilometres and thus only captures a small fraction of an SMOS footprint. Compared to SMOS, the ULS are point measurements and multi-year time series are necessary to enable a statistically representative comparison. Only four of the ULS moorings have a temporal overlap with SMOS in the year 2010. Based on selected averaged HEM flights and monthly ULS climatologies, we find a small mean difference (bias) of less than 10 cm and a root mean square deviation of about 20 cm with a correlation coefficient R > 0.9 for the valid sea ice thickness range between 0 and about 1 m. The SMOS sea ice thickness showed an underestimate of about 40 cm with respect to the less representative SUIT validation data in the marginal ice zone. Compared with sea ice thickness outside the valid range, we find that SMOS strongly underestimates the real values, which underlines the need for combination with other sensors such as altimeters. In summary, the overall validity of the SMOS sea ice thickness for thin sea ice up to a thickness of about 1 m has been demonstrated through validation with multiple datasets. To ensure the quality of the SMOS product, an independent regional sea ice extent index was used for control. We found that the new version, v3.3, is slightly improved in terms of completeness, indicating fewer missing data. However, it is worth noting that the general characteristics of both datasets are very similar, also with the same limitations.

Polar warming, ice melt and strong precipitation events are strongly affected by episodic poleward advection of warm and moist air (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85; Wille et al 2019 Nat. Geosci. 12 911–6), which, in turn, is linked to variability in poleward moisture transport (PMT) (Nash et al 2018 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123 6804–21). However, processes governing regional impacts of PMT as well as long-term trends remain largely unknown. Here we use an ensemble of state-of-the-art global climate models in standardized scenario simulations (1850–2100) to show that both the Arctic and the Antarctic exhibit distinct geographical patterns of PMT-related warming. Specifically, years with high PMT experience considerable warming over subarctic Eurasia and West-Antarctica (Raphael et al 2016 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97 111–21), whereas precipitation is distributed more evenly over the polar regions. The warming patterns indicate preferred routes of atmospheric rivers (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85), which may regionally enhance atmospheric moisture content, cloud cover, and downward longwave radiative heating in years with comparatively high PMT (Scott et al 2019 J. Clim. 32 665–84). Trend-analyses reveal that the link between PMT-variability and regional precipitation patterns will weaken in both polar regions. Even though uncertainties associated with intermodel differences are considerable, the advection of warm and moist air associated with PMT-variability is likely to increasingly cause mild conditions in both polar regions, which in the Arctic will reinforce sea-ice melt. Similarly, the results suggest that warm years in West-Antarctica disproportionally contribute to ice sheet melt (Trusel et al 2015 Nat. Geosci. 8 927–32), enhancing the risk of ice-sheet instabilities causing accelerated and sudden sea-level rise.

Floating ice shelves are the Achilles’ heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.

It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2013 for the Weddell Sea region, paying special attention to regional patterns of error statistics. This is the first evaluation of NWP systems over the Southern Ocean that also addresses the accuracy of forecasted vertical profiles. In the evaluation, we use data from land- and ship-based automatic weather stations (AWS) and radiosoundings. While the ECMWF and AMPS forecasts are on average biased cold and dry near the surface, the GFS forecasts are on average biased warm and moist. The near-surface wind speed is on average overestimated by the AMPS forecasts, whereas it is slightly underestimated by the forecasts of the other two NWP systems. Among the variables investigated, all three NWP systems forecast the near-surface specific humidity most accurately, followed by the temperature and then the wind speed. The forecast quality for the near-surface and upper-air wind speed degrades the most rapidly with increasing lead time, compared to the other variables. ECMWF is the overall best NWP system when compared against both the near-surface and upper-air observations, followed by AMPS and then GFS. The generally poorest model performance is found in locations with complex terrain along the coast of the Antarctic continent, and the best over the ocean.

To better capture the air-snow-ice interaction, a snow/ice enhanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ice) model has been developed. This study examines the performance of WRF-ice and its blowing snow component during a strong cyclone event from October 23 to 27, 2017 over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is characterized by a synoptic cyclone crossing the northern part of the Peninsula and an embodied mesoscale cyclone over the Weddell Sea. Evolution of the cyclone is accurately reproduced in the 5-km resolution WRF-ice simulation, and the simulated near-surface conditions agree well with station and satellite observations. Numerical simulations show that the process of blowing snow sublimation can be prominent within the lower atmosphere when the air is dry, and produces moistening and cooling effects. Over relatively warm and humid areas, cloud enhancement by blowing snow can lead to either colder or warmer surfaces because of competing effects of longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcings. In particular, additional moisture from blowing snow sublimation can slightly intensify precipitation over the mountains. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that absorbed shortwave (Sa), incoming longwave (Ld), and outgoing longwave (Lu) are dominant components of surface energy budget. When increases in Ld, Lu, and sensible heat flux are combined with decreases in Sa and latent heat flux due to blowing snow effects, a negative surface net heat flux (∼0.5 W/m2) occurs during daytime. A positive domain-total surface mass balance (∼0.43 Gt) is generated during the simulated cyclone event due to increases in precipitation, decreases in runoff, and decreases in sublimation.

We investigate an intense snowfall event between 15 and 18 February 2011 over the East Antarctic coastal region which contributed to roughly 24% of the annual snow accumulation. The event was previously associated with an atmospheric river, and here we use both Eulerian and Lagrangian analysis to gain an understanding of the processes contributing to the atmospheric river signature. The planetary-scale configuration during the event consisted of a persistent blocking situation resulting in a sustained meridional flow from the sub-tropics to the Antarctic ice sheet between 20 and 50°E. Within this configuration, synoptic-scale cyclogenesis contributed to slantwise ascent of moisture loaded air parcels toward Antarctica. Landfall of this cyclone’s warm sector coincided with the onset of Antarctic precipitation. Subsequently, a secondary cyclone developed along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The rapid intensification and propagation speed of this mesoscale cyclone alongside the warm, moist air mass resulted in strong moisture flux convergence ahead of the cyclone, providing additional poleward moisture transport. The poleward progression of warm moist air and a corresponding decrease of sea-surface temperatures implied downward surface sensible and latent heat fluxes throughout the region of intense poleward moisture, roughly between 40 and 60°S. Hence, moisture uptake via surface evaporation was suppressed between the sub-tropics and the polar continent, favoring long-range transport. Identification of the surface moisture uptake region by tracing changes in moisture in air parcels confirmed the limited uptake of moisture during the poleward transport in this case study, with the primary moisture source for Antarctic precipitation located in the sub-tropics.

In March 2017, measurements of downward global irradiance of ultraviolet (UV) radiation were started with a multichannel GUV-2511 radiometer in Marambio, Antarctica (64.23∘ S; 56.62∘ W), by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) in collaboration with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). These measurements were analysed and the results were compared to previous measurements performed at the same site with the radiometer of the Antarctic NILU-UV network during 2000–2008 and to data from five stations across Antarctica. In 2017/2018 the monthly-average erythemal daily doses from October to January were lower than those averaged over 2000–2008 with differences from 2.3 % to 25.5 %. In 2017/2018 the average daily erythemal dose from September to March was 1.88 kJ m−2, while in 2018/2019 it was 23 % larger (2.37 kJ m−2). Also at several other stations in Antarctica the UV radiation levels in 2017/2018 were below average. The maximum UV indices (UVI) in Marambio were 6.2 and 9.5 in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019, respectively, whereas during years 2000–2008 the maximum was 12. Cloud cover, the strength of the polar vortex and the stratospheric ozone depletion are the primary factors that influence the surface UV radiation levels in Marambio. The lower UV irradiance values in 2017/2018 are explained by the high ozone concentrations in November, February and for a large part of October. The role of cloud cover was clearly seen in December, and to a lesser extent in October and November, when cloud cover qualitatively explains changes which could not be ascribed to changes in total ozone column (TOC). In this study, the roles of aerosols and albedo are of minor influence because the variation of these factors in Marambio was small from one year to the other. The largest variations of UV irradiance occur during spring and early summer when noon solar zenith angle (SZA) is low and the stratospheric ozone concentration is at a minimum (the so-called ozone hole). In 2017/2018, coincident low total ozone column and low cloudiness near solar noon did not occur, and no extreme UV indices were measured.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite was launched on 13 October 2017 to provide the atmospheric composition for atmosphere and climate research. The S5P is a Sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellite providing global daily coverage. The TROPOMI swath is 2600 km wide, and the ground resolution for most data products is 7.2×3.5 km2 (5.6×3.5 km2 since 6 August 2019) at nadir. The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) is responsible for the development of the TROPOMI UV algorithm and the processing of the TROPOMI surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation product which includes 36 UV parameters in total. Ground-based data from 25 sites located in arctic, subarctic, temperate, equatorial and Antarctic areas were used for validation of the TROPOMI overpass irradiance at 305, 310, 324 and 380 nm, overpass erythemally weighted dose rate/UV index, and erythemally weighted daily dose for the period from 1 January 2018 to 31 August 2019. The validation results showed that for most sites 60 %–80 % of TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based data for snow-free surface conditions. The median relative differences to ground-based measurements of TROPOMI snow-free surface daily doses were within ±10 % and ±5 % at two-thirds and at half of the sites, respectively. At several sites more than 90 % of cloud-free TROPOMI data was within ±20 % of ground-based measurements. Generally median relative differences between TROPOMI data and ground-based measurements were a little biased towards negative values (i.e. satellite data < ground-based measurement), but at high latitudes where non-homogeneous topography and albedo or snow conditions occurred, the negative bias was exceptionally high: from −30 % to −65 %. Positive biases of 10 %–15 % were also found for mountainous sites due to challenging topography. The TROPOMI surface UV radiation product includes quality flags to detect increased uncertainties in the data due to heterogeneous surface albedo and rough terrain, which can be used to filter the data retrieved under challenging conditions.

Current global warming is causing significant changes in snowfall in polar regions, directly impacting the mass balance of the ice caps. The only water supply in Antarctica, precipitation, is poorly estimated from surface measurements. The onboard cloud-profiling radar of the CloudSat satellite provided the first real opportunity to estimate solid precipitation at continental scale. Based on CloudSat observations, we propose to explore the vertical structure of precipitation in Antarctica over the 2007–2010 period. A first division of this data set following a topographical approach (continent vs. peripheral regions, with a 2,250 m topographical criterion) shows a high snowfall rate (275 mm yr at 1,200 m above ground level) with low relative seasonal variation ( ) over the peripheral areas. Over the plateau, the snowfall rate is low (34 mm yr at 1,200 m above ground level) with a much larger relative seasonal variation ( ). A second study that follows a geographical division highlights the average vertical structure of precipitation and temperature depending on the regions and their interactions with topography. In particular, over ice shelves, we see a strong dependence of the distribution of snowfall on the sea ice coverage. Finally, the relationship between precipitation and temperature is analyzed and compared with a simple analytical relationship. This study highlights that precipitation is largely dependent on the advection of air masses along the topographic slopes with an average vertical wind of 0.02 m s . This provides new diagnostics to evaluate climate models with a three-dimensional approach of the atmospheric structure of precipitation.

Understanding climate proxy records that preserve physical characteristics of past climate is a prerequisite to reconstruct long-term climatic conditions. Water stable isotope ratios (δ18O) constitute a widely used proxy in ice cores to reconstruct temperature and climate. However, the original climate signal is altered between the formation of precipitation and the ice, especially in low-accumulation areas such as the East Antarctic Plateau. Atmospheric conditions under which the isotopic signal is acquired at Aurora Basin North (ABN), East Antarctica, are characterized with the regional atmospheric model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR). The model shows that 50% of the snow is accumulated in less than 24 days year−1. Snowfall occurs throughout the year and intensifies during winter, with 64% of total accumulation between April and September, leading to a cold bias of −0.86°C in temperatures above inversion compared to the annual mean of −29.7°C. Large snowfall events are associated with high-pressure systems forcing warm oceanic air masses toward the Antarctic interior, which causes a warm bias of +2.83°C. The temperature-δ18O relationship, assessed with the global atmospheric model ECHAM5-wiso, is primarily constrained by the winter variability, but the observed slope is valid year-round. Three snow δ18O records covering 2004–2014 indicate that the anomalies recorded in the ice core are attributable to the occurrence of warm winter storms bringing precipitation to ABN and support the interpretation of δ18O in this region as a marker of temperature changes related to large-scale atmospheric conditions, particularly blocking events and variations in the Southern Annular Mode.

Combining information from several channels of the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU-UV) irradiance meter, one may determine the total ozone column (TOC) amount. A NILU-UV instrument has been deployed and operated on two locations at Troll research station in Jutulsessen, Queen Maud Land, Antarctica, for several years. The method used to determine the TOC amount is presented, and the derived TOC values are compared with those obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) located on NASA’s AURA satellite. The findings show that the NILU-UV TOC amounts correlate well with the results of the OMI and that the NILU-UV instruments are suitable for monitoring the long-term change and development of the ozone hole. Because of the large footprint of OMI, NILU-UV is a more suitable instrument for local measurements.