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While observed mesospheric polar nitric acid enhancements have been attributed to energetic particle precipitation through ion cluster chemistry in the past, this phenomenon is not reproduced in current whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate models. We investigate such nitric acid enhancements resulting from energetic electron precipitation events using a recently developed variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that includes a sophisticated ion chemistry tailored for the D-layer of the ionosphere (50–90 km), namely, WACCM-D. Using the specified dynamics mode, that is, nudging dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere to meteorological reanalyses, we perform a 1-year-long simulation (July 2009–June 2010) and contrast WACCM-D with the standard WACCM. Both WACCM and WACCM-D simulations are performed with and without forcing from medium-to-high energy electron precipitation, allowing a better representation of the energetic electrons penetrating into the mesosphere. We demonstrate the effects of the strong particle precipitation events which occurred during April and May 2010 on nitric acid and on key ion cluster species, as well as other relevant species of the nitrogen family. The 1-year-long simulation allows the event-related changes in neutral and ionic species to be placed in the context of their annual cycle. We especially highlight the role played by medium-to-high energy electrons in triggering ion cluster chemistry and ion-ion recombinations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the precipitation event, leading to enhanced production of nitric acid and raising its abundance by 2 orders of magnitude from 10−4 to a few 10−2 ppb.

The establishment of a modern-like monsoon climate in East Asia by the early Miocene was a complex process forced by several factors, and previous studies paid less attention to global cooling. Here we investigate this process using climate modeling by considering changes in topography and global cooling under the early Miocene boundary conditions. Using early Miocene paleogeography and an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 560 ppmv, our model results indicate that a nonzonal climate pattern has appeared in East China but that this climate exhibits weak precipitation and wind seasonality. Such seasonality strengthens as the concentration of atmospheric CO2 decreases from 560 to 420 ppmv and resembles the modern-like condition after the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet. Although the development of East Asian topography can further strengthen this seasonality, our results indicate that global cooling is also pivotal for the establishment of a modern-like monsoon climate in East Asia.

An idealized eddy-resolving numerical model, with topographic features common to the southern Weddell Sea, is constructed to study mechanisms through which warm deep water enters a wide continental shelf with a trough. The open ocean, represented by a 1700 m deep channel, is connected to a 400 m deep shelf with a continental slope. The shelf is narrow (50 km) in the east but widens to 300 km at the center of the model domain. Over the narrow shelf, the slope front is balanced by wind-driven Ekman downwelling and counteracting eddy overturning, favoring on-shelf transport of warm water in summer scenarios when fresher surface water is present. Over the wide shelf, the Ekman downwelling ceases, and the mesoscale eddies relax the front. Inflow of warm water is sensitive to along-shelf salinity gradients and is most efficient when denser water over the wide shelf favors up-slope eddy transport along isopycnals of the V-shaped slope front. Inflow along the eastern side of the trough cannot penetrate the sill region due to potential vorticity constraints, while along the western trough flank, eddy-induced inflow crosses the sill and reaches the ice front. The warm inflow into the trough is sensitive to the density of the outflowing dense shelf water. For weaker winds, absence of the dense water outflow leads to a reversal of the trough circulation and a strong inflow of warm water, while for stronger winds, baroclinic effects become less important and the inflow is similar to experiments including dense water outflow.

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

This article investigates the annual cycle observed in the Antarctic baseline aerosol scattering coefficient, total particle number concentration, and particle number size distribution (PNSD), as measured at Troll Atmospheric Observatory. Mie theory shows that the annual cycles in microphysical and optical aerosol properties have a common cause. By comparison with observations at other Antarctic stations, it is shown that the annual cycle is not a local phenomenon, but common to central Antarctic baseline air masses. Observations of ground-level ozone at Troll as well as backward plume calculations for the air masses arriving at Troll demonstrate that the baseline air masses originate from the free troposphere and lower stratosphere region, and descend over the central Antarctic continent. The Antarctic summer PNSD is dominated by particles with diameters <100 nm recently formed from the gas-phase despite the absence of external sources of condensible gases. The total particle volume in Antarctic baseline aerosol is linearly correlated with the integral insolation the aerosol received on its transport pathway, and the photooxidative production of particle volume is mostly limited by photooxidative capacity, not availability of aerosol precursor gases. The photooxidative particle volume formation rate in central Antarctic baseline air is quantified to 207 ±4 μm3/(MJ m). Further research is proposed to investigate the applicability of this number to other atmospheric reservoirs, and to use the observed annual cycle in Antarctic baseline aerosol properties as a benchmark for the representation of natural atmospheric aerosol processes in climate models.

An ongoing challenge in attributing anthropogenic climate change is to distinguish anthropogenic and natural changes of atmospheric composition, e.g. concerning atmospheric aerosol and its climate effects. Aerosol properties measured at pristine locations, to the extend they still exist, can serve as a climate model benchmark for verifying the representation of natural aerosol processes in the model.

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.

Freshwater pulses from melting ice sheets are thought to be important for driving deglacial climate variability. This study investigates challenges in simulating and understanding deglacial climate evolution within this framework, with emphasis on uncertainties in the ocean overturning sensitivity to meltwater inputs. The response of an intermediate complexity model to a single Northern Hemisphere meltwater pulse is familiar: a weakening of the ocean overturning circulation in conjunction with an expansion of sea ice cover and a meridional temperature seesaw. Nonlinear processes are vital in shaping this response and are found to have a decisive influence when more complex scenarios with a history of pulses are involved. A meltwater history for the last deglaciation (21–9 ka) was computed from the ICE-5G ice sheet reconstruction, and the meltwater was routed into the ocean through idealized ice sheet drainages. Forced with this meltwater history, model configurations with altered freshwater sensitivity produce a range of outcomes for the deglaciation, from those in which there is a complete collapse of the overturning circulation to those in which the overturning circulation weakens slightly. The different outcomes are interpreted in terms of the changing hysteresis behavior of the overturning circulation (i.e., non-stationary freshwater sensitivity) as the background climate warms through the course of the deglaciation. The study illustrates that current uncertainties in model sensitivity are limiting in efforts to forward-model deglacial climate variability. Furthermore, ice sheet reconstructions are shown to provide poor constraints on meltwater forcing for simulating the deglaciation.

We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process-oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model's ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model's circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.

The carbon cycle is a major forcing component in the global climate system. Modelling studies, aiming to explain recent and past climatic changes and to project future ones, increasingly include the interaction between the physical and biogeochemical systems. Their ocean components are generally z-coordinate models that are conceptually easy to use but that employ a vertical coordinate that is alien to the real ocean structure. Here, we present first results from a newly-developed isopycnic carbon cycle model and demonstrate the viability of using an isopycnic physical component for this purpose. As expected, the model represents well the interior ocean transport of biogeochemical tracers and produces realistic tracer distributions. Difficulties in employing a purely isopycnic coordinate lie mainly in the treatment of the surface boundary layer which is often represented by a bulk mixed layer. The most significant adjustments of the ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC, for use with an isopycnic coordinate, were in the representation of upper ocean biological production. We present a series of sensitivity studies exploring the effect of changes in biogeochemical and physical processes on export production and nutrient distribution. Apart from giving us pointers for further model development, they highlight the importance of preformed nutrient distributions in the Southern Ocean for global nutrient distributions. The sensitivity studies show that iron limitation for biological particle production, the treatment of light penetration for biological production, and the role of diapycnal mixing result in significant changes of nutrient distributions and liniting factors of biological production.