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We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.

During the 35th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were carried out using a Li-Cor CO 2 /H 2 O analyser at Bharati, the Indian Antarctic research station. This study examines the short-term variability of atmospheric CO 2 during the austral summer (January–February) of 2016. An average of 396.25 ± 4.20 ppm was observed during the study period. Meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and atmospheric boundary layer height in conjunction with photosynthetically active radiation, the biological activity indicator which modulates atmospheric CO 2 concentration have been investigated. High wind speed (>20 m s −1 ) combined with precipitation scavenges CO 2 in the atmosphere, resulting in low concentrations at the study site. The lowest CO 2 concentration of 385 ppm coincided with heavy precipitation of 15 mm during study period. Statistical analysis of the data shows that precipitation and relative humidity independently correlated 55% (r = −0.55) and 32% (r = −0.32), respectively, with the variability of CO 2 mixing in the atmosphere at the study site. Atmospheric CO 2 was significantly correlated with precipitation alone with a p value of 0.003. Further, multiple regression analysis was performed to test the significant relation between variability of atmospheric CO 2 and meteorological parameters. Long-range air-mass transport analysis depicted that the majority of the air masses are reaching the study site through the oceanic region.

De siste 20 årene har vært de varmeste siden globale temperaturmålinger startet i 1880 (Figur 1). FNs klimapanel konkluderer med at hovedårsaken til den observerte temperaturøkningen er menneskeskapte utslipp av klimagasser. I nordområdene har temperaturen økt nesten dobbelt så raskt som i resten av verden. Isdekket er nær halvert og isvolumet er redusert til en tredjedel. Men på den andre siden av jorden, altså i Antarktis, er situasjonen en helt annen. Temperaturen har vært fallende de siste årene og isdekket har vært rekordstort. Dette paradokset brukes ofte som et argument mot menneskeskapte endring av klima. For hvordan kan det ha seg at temperaturen i Antarktis faller når klimagassutslippene øker?

This study aimed to quantify the nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes at sites with different vegetation covers and where bird activity was present or absent using the static chamber method, on Rip Point, Nelson Island, maritime Antarctic. The sites were soils covered by Sanionia uncinata, lichens, Prasiola crispa, Deschampsia antarctica and bare soil. Seabirds used the P. crispa and D. antarctica sites as nesting areas. Soil mineral N contents, air and soil temperature and water-filled pore space were measured, and the content of total organic C and particulate organic C, total N, bulk density and texture were determined to identify controlling variables of the gas emissions. The N2O and CH4 flux rates were low for all sampling events. Mean N2O flux rates ranged from 0.11±1.93 up to 21.25±22.14 µg N2O m−2 h−1 for the soils under lichen and P. crispa cover, respectively. For the CH4 fluxes, only the P. crispa site showed a low positive mean (0.47±3.61 µg CH4 m−2 h−1). The bare soil showed the greatest absorption of CH4 (−11.92±5.7 µg CH4 m−2 h−1), probably favoured by the coarse soil texture. Bare soil and S. uncinata sites had N2O accumulated emissions close to zero. Net CH4 accumulated emission was observed only at the P. crispa site, which was correlated with (p<0.001). These results indicate that seabird activity influences N2O and CH4 soil fluxes, while vegetation has little influence, and bare soil areas in maritime Antarctica could be greenhouse gas sinks. Keywords: Soil greenhouse gases; seabirds; vegetal cover; maritime Antarctica.

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long—28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

In the northern Weddell Gyre at the prime meridian, Total TCO2 changes in the Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW) have been investigated. Following a suggestion by [Poisson and Chen, 1987], the TCO2 difference at potential temperatures of 0.2°C and −0.8°C was determined using data from 1996 and 1998. No significant difference was found to similar differences for the years 1973 and 1981 reported by Poisson and Chen. Thus, over a period of 25 years an at most minor amount of anthropogenic CO2 has penetrated into the WSBW at this location. This suggests that this abyssal subpolar region is relatively unimportant for the storage of anthropogenic CO2. The same core of WSBW exhibited a marked increase of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). For the Southern Ocean, therefore, CFCs are apparently of limited value as analogues of anthropogenic CO2, in contrast to some other ocean provinces.

The altitude dependent variability of ozone in the polar stratosphere is regularly observed by balloon-borne ozonesonde observations at Neumayer Station (70°S) in the Antarctic and at Koldewey Station (79°N) in the Arctic. The reasons for observed seasonal and interannual variability and long-term changes are discussed. Differences between the hemispheres are identified and discussed in light of differing dynamical and chemical conditions. Since the mid- 1980s, rapid chemical ozone loss has been recorded in the lower Antarctic stratosphere during the spring season. Using coordinated ozone soundings in some Arctic winters, similar chemical ozone loss rates have been detected related to periods of low temperatures. The currently observed cooling trend of the stratosphere, potentially caused by the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may further strengthen chemical ozone removal in the Arctic. However, the role of internal climate oscillations in observed temperature trends is still uncertain. First results of a 10000 year integration of a low order climate model indicate significant internal climate variability. on decadal time scales, that may alter the effect of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the polar stratosphere.