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We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

The warming climate influences the ocean by changing its wind-driven dynamics and by inputting extra heat. This study analyzes the warming where temperature anomalies penetrate the ocean interior, that is, by focusing on the winter mixed layer base. This allows to distinguish regions where ocean circulation contributes to warm anomalies from locations where density-compensated temperature anomalies locally enter the ocean along isopycnals. Multidecadal (1980–2018) local temperature trends from a hydrographic data set are examined at the winter mixed layer base and partitioned into components relating to isopycnal movement (heave) and change along isopycnals (spice). Subtropical gyres and western boundary currents show warming larger than the global average that mostly projects onto heave. This is the result of the strengthening of the circulation in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical gyres and is related to both wind-driven changes and Southern Ocean warming. Subtropical regions of surface salinity maxima are influenced by warm anomalies along isopycnals.

Study of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is critical to estimate its potential contribution to global sea-level rise in the future. As the largest drainage system, the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf drainage system plays an important role in the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In this study, the ice thickness measured by airborne ice-penetrating radar with high spatial resolution and accuracy and accurate ice velocity measured by in situ GPS stations along the route of the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition inland traverse were used to calculate the ice flux with unprecedented accuracy. This transverse is from Zhongshan Station to Dome A, passing through the east side of the Lambert Glacier and the smaller coastal glacier in the C-Cp basin. The results show that the ice flux across the entire traverse is 24.7 ± 2.8 Gt a−1, along which the section in drainage basin B–C (Lambert Glacier) has an ice flux of 20.9 ± 1.9 Gt a−1 and the section in drainage basin C–Cp (basin adjacent to Lambert Glacier) contributed 3.8 ± 0.4 Gt a−1. The ice flux values in both regions are coincident with the mass balance calculated from the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite, Earth Observing System. Meanwhile, the C–Cp basin shows an ice flux value of 6.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 across the grounding line.

Understanding changes in Antarctic ice shelf basal melting is a major challenge for predicting future sea level. Currently, warm Circumpolar Deep Water surrounding Antarctica has limited access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf; consequently, melt rates at Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf are low. However, large-scale model projections suggest that changes to the Antarctic Slope Front and the coastal circulation may enhance warm inflows within this century. We use a regional high-resolution ice shelf cavity and ocean circulation model to explore forcing changes that may trigger this regime shift. Our results suggest two necessary conditions for supporting a sustained warm inflow into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity: (i) an extreme relaxation of the Antarctic Slope Front density gradient and (ii) substantial freshening of the dense shelf water. We also find that the on-shelf transport over the western Weddell Sea shelf is sensitive to the Filchner Trough overflow characteristics.

Ecological niche theory predicts sympatric species to show segregation in their spatio-temporal habitat utilization or diet as a strategy to avoid competition. Similarly, within species individuals may specialize on specific dietary resources or foraging habitats. Such individual specialization seems to occur particularly in environments with predictable resource distribution and limited environmental variability. Still, little is known about how seasonal environmental variability affects segregation of resources within species and between closely related sympatric species. The aim of the study was to investigate the foraging behaviour of three closely related and sympatrically breeding fulmarine petrels (Antarctic petrels Thalassoica antarctica, cape petrels Daption capense and southern fulmars Fulmarus glacialoides) in a seasonally highly variable environment (Prydz Bay, Antarctica) with the aim of assessing inter- and intraspecific overlap in utilized habitat, timing of foraging and diet and to identify foraging habitat preferences. We used GPS loggers with wet/dry sensors to assess spatial habitat utilization over the entire breeding season. Trophic overlap was investigated using stable isotope analysis based on blood, feathers and egg membranes. Foraging locations were identified using wet/dry data recorded by the GPS loggers and expectation-maximization binary clustering. Foraging habitat preferences were modelled using generalized additive models and model cross-validation. During incubation and chick-rearing, the utilization distribution of all three species overlapped significantly and species also overlapped in the timing of foraging during the day—partly during incubation and completely during chick-rearing. Isotopic centroids showed no significant segregation between at least two species for feathers and egg membranes, and among all species during incubation (reflected by blood). Within species, there was no individual specialization in foraging sites or environmental space. Furthermore, no single environmental covariate predicted foraging activity along trip trajectories. Instead, best-explanatory environmental covariates varied within and between individuals even across short temporal scales, reflecting a highly generalist behaviour of birds. Our results may be explained by optimal foraging theory. In the highly productive but spatio-temporally variable Antarctic environment, being a generalist may be key to finding mobile prey—even though this increases the potential for competition within and among sympatric species.

There is a paucity of information on the foraging ecology, especially individual use of sea-ice features and icebergs, over the non-breeding season in many seabird species. Using geolocators and stable isotopes, we defined the movements, distribution and diet of adult Antarctic petrels Thalassoica antarctica from the largest known breeding colony, the inland Svarthamaren, Antarctica. More specifically, we examined how sea-ice concentration and free-drifting icebergs affect the distribution of Antarctic petrels. After breeding, birds moved north to the marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Weddell sector of the Southern Ocean, following its northward extension during freeze-up in April, and they wintered there in April–August. There, the birds stayed predominantly out of the water (60–80% of the time) suggesting they use icebergs as platforms to stand on and/or to rest. Feather δ15N values encompassed one full trophic level, indicating that birds fed on various proportions of crustaceans and fish/squid, most likely Antarctic krill Euphausia superba and the myctophid fish Electrona antarctica and/or the squid Psychroteuthis glacialis. Birds showed strong affinity for the open waters of the northern boundary of the MIZ, an important iceberg transit area, which offers roosting opportunities and rich prey fields. The strong association of Antarctic petrels with sea-ice cycle and icebergs suggests the species can serve, year-round, as a sentinel of environmental changes for this remote region.

Antarctic sea ice can incorporate high levels of iron (Fe) during its formation and has been suggested as an important source of this essential micronutrient to Southern Ocean surface waters during the melt season. Over the last decade, a limited number of studies have quantified the Fe pool in Antarctic sea ice, with a focus on late winter and spring. Here we study the distribution of operationally defined dissolved and particulate Fe from nine sites sampled between Wilkes Land and King George V Land during austral summer 2016/2017. Results point toward a net heterotrophic sea-ice community, consistent with the observed nitrate limitation (<1 μM). We postulate that the recycling of the high particulate Fe pool in summer sea ice supplies sufficient (∼3 nM) levels of dissolved Fe to sustain ice algal growth. The remineralization of particulate Fe is likely favored by high concentrations of exopolysaccharides (113–16,290 μg xeq L−1) which can serve as a hotspot for bacterial activity. Finally, results indicate a potential relationship between glacial meltwater discharged from the Moscow University Ice Shelf and the occurrence of Fe-rich (∼4.3 μM) platelet ice in its vicinity. As climate change is expected to result in enhanced Fe-rich glacial discharge and changes in summer sea-ice extent and quality, the processes influencing Fe distribution in sea ice that persists into summer need to be better constrained.

To investigate the role of tides in Weddell Sea ocean-ice shelf melt interactions, and resulting consequences for ocean properties and sea ice interactions, we develop a regional ocean-sea ice model configuration, with time-varying ocean boundary and atmospheric forcing, including the deep open ocean (at 2.5–4 km horizontal resolution), the southwestern continental shelf (≈2.5 km), and the adjacent cavities of eastern Weddell, Larsen, and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves (FRIS, 1.5–2.5 km). Simulated circulation, water mass, and ice shelf melt properties compare overall well with available open ocean and cavity observational knowledge. Tides are shown to enhance the kinetic energy of the time-varying flow in contact with the ice shelves, thereby increasing melt. This dynamically driven impact of tides on net melting is to almost 90% compensated by cooling through the meltwater that is produced but not quickly exported from regions of melting in the Weddell Sea cold-cavity regime. The resulting systematic tide-driven enhancement of both produced meltwater and its refreezing on ascending branches of, especially the FRIS, cavity circulation acts to increase net ice shelf melting (by 50% in respect to the state without tides, ≈50 Gt yr−1). In addition, tides also increase the melt-induced FRIS cavity circulation, and the meltwater export by the FRIS outflow. Simulations suggest attendant changes on the open-ocean southwestern continental shelf, characterized by overall freshening and small year-round sea ice thickening, as well as in the deep southwestern Weddell Sea in the form of a marked freshening of newly formed bottom waters.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Reliable records of Southern Ocean seawater palaeotemperatures are important because this region plays a significant role in regulating global climate change. Biomarkers such as GDGT-based indices have been effectively used to reconstruct seawater temperatures. We analysed the composition and distribution of iGDGTs, OH-GDGTs and brGDGTs and calculated GDGT-based temperature indices in surface sediments from Prydz Bay, East Antarctica. Our results showed that iGDGTs, OH-GDGTs and brGDGTs are all produced in situ, with iGDGTs and OH-GDGTs mostly synthesized by Thaumarchaeota. Concentrations of iGDGTs, OH-GDGTs and brGDGTs showed similar spatial distributions and decreased from the continental shelf towards the deep ocean. The highest concentrations were in the inner bay, which is attributed to a combination of (1) bathymetry that reduces water exchange, (2) the Prydz Bay Gyre stabilizing the upper water column and (3) sea ice that releases archaea and bacteria. Among the temperature indices based on iGDGTs, OH-GDGTs and combinations therein, those based on OH-GDGTs showed the strongest correlation with seawater temperature. Some OH-GDGT-based indices (e.g., OH-0/OHs, OH-1/OHs, OH-2/OHs and RI-OH′) exhibited a stronger correlation with annual subsurface ocean temperature (100–200 m), which may be related to archaeal habitats and production mechanisms. Our study suggests that RI-OH′ and OH-0/OHs could be used as indicators of annual subsurface ocean temperature in Antarctic marginal seas.

Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) is an important source of polar nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the upper atmosphere. During winter, mesospheric NOx has a long chemical lifetime and is transported to the stratosphere by the mean meridional circulation. Climate change is expected to accelerate this circulation and therefore increase polar mesospheric descent rates. We investigate the Southern Hemispheric polar NOx distribution during the 21st century under a variety of future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We simulate stronger polar mesospheric descent in all future scenarios that increase the atmospheric radiative forcing. Polar NOx in the upper stratosphere is significantly enhanced in two future scenarios with the largest increase in radiative forcing. This indicates that the ozone depleting NOx cycle will become more important in the future, especially if stratospheric chlorine species decline. Thus, EEP-related atmospheric effects may become more prominent in the future.

The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over past decades through the accelerated flow of its glaciers, conditioned by ocean temperature and bed topography. Glaciers retreating along retrograde slopes (that is, the bed elevation drops in the inland direction) are potentially unstable, while subglacial ridges slow down the glacial retreat. Despite major advances in the mapping of subglacial bed topography, significant sectors of Antarctica remain poorly resolved and critical spatial details are missing. Here we present a novel, high-resolution and physically based description of Antarctic bed topography using mass conservation. Our results reveal previously unknown basal features with major implications for glacier response to climate change. For example, glaciers flowing across the Transantarctic Mountains are protected by broad, stabilizing ridges. Conversely, in the marine basin of Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, we find retrograde slopes along Ninnis and Denman glaciers, with stabilizing slopes beneath Moscow University, Totten and Lambert glacier system, despite corrections in bed elevation of up to 1 km for the latter. This transformative description of bed topography redefines the high- and lower-risk sectors for rapid sea level rise from Antarctica; it will also significantly impact model projections of sea level rise from Antarctica in the coming centuries.

Reconstructing the response of present-day ice sheets to past global climate change is important for constraining and refining the numerical models which forecast future contributions of these ice sheets to sea-level change. Mapping landforms is an essential step in reconstructing glacial histories. Here we present a new map of glacial landforms and deposits on nunataks in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Nunataks are mountains or ridges that currently protrude through the ice sheet and may provide evidence that they have been wholly or partly covered by ice, thus indicating a formerly more extensive (thicker) ice sheet. The map was produced through a combination of mapping from Worldview satellite imagery and ground validation. The sub-metre spatial resolution of the satellite imagery enabled mapping with unprecedented detail. Ten landform categories have been mapped, and the landform distributions provide evidence constraining spatial patterns of a previously thicker ice sheet.

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.

The shape of ice shelf cavities are a major source of uncertainty in understanding ice-ocean interactions. This limits assessments of the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to climate change. Here we use vibroseis seismic reflection surveys to map the bathymetry beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land. The new bathymetry reveals an inland-sloping trough, reaching depths of 1,100 m below sea level, near the current grounding line, which we attribute to erosion by palaeo-ice streams. The trough does not cross-cut the outer parts of the continental shelf. Conductivity-temperature-depth profiles within the ice shelf cavity reveal the presence of cold water at shallower depths and tidal mixing at the ice shelf margins. It is unknown if warm water can access the trough. The new bathymetry is thought to be representative of many ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land, which together regulate the ice loss from a substantial area of East Antarctica.

Antarktis kan virke som det sover under en beskyttende dyne av snø og is. Kontinentet har vært lite påvirket av menneskelig aktivitet, men har nå begynt å våkne. Klimaendringene har nådd fram til det frosne kontinentet ved Sørpolen. Relativt varme og salte havstrømmer kommer seg nå helt inn til isen. Men satellitter viser at det smelter mindre is enn det som hadde vært mulig med den tilgjengelige mengden varme. Vi har brukt observasjoner og resultater fra laboratoriet for å forklare hvor det varme vannet blir av.

Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the ocean has increased in recent decades, largely because the thinning of its floating ice shelves has allowed the outflow of grounded ice to accelerate. Enhanced basal melting of the ice shelves is thought to be the ultimate driver of change, motivating a recent focus on the processes that control ocean heat transport onto and across the seabed of the Antarctic continental shelf towards the ice. However, the shoreward heat flux typically far exceeds that required to match observed melt rates, suggesting that other critical controls exist. Here we show that the depth-independent (barotropic) component of the heat flow towards an ice shelf is blocked by the marked step shape of the ice front, and that only the depth-varying (baroclinic) component, which is typically much smaller, can enter the sub-ice cavity. Our results arise from direct observations of the Getz Ice Shelf system and laboratory experiments on a rotating platform. A similar blocking of the barotropic component may occur in other areas with comparable ice–bathymetry configurations, which may explain why changes in the density structure of the water column have been found to be a better indicator of basal melt rate variability than the heat transported onto the continental shelf. Representing the step topography of the ice front accurately in models is thus important for simulating ocean heat fluxes and induced melt rates.