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We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered the most unstable part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. As the WAIS is mostly grounded below sea level, its stability is of great concern. A collapse of large parts of the WAIS would result in a significant global sea-level rise. At present, the WAIS shows dramatic ice loss in its Amundsen Sea sector, especially in Pine Island Bay. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is characterised by fast flow, major thinning and rapid grounding-line retreat. Its mass los over recent decades is generally attributed to melting caused by the inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). Future melting of PIG may result in a sea level tipping point, because it could trigger widespread collapse of the WAIS, especially when considering ongoing climate change.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered the most unstable part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. As the WAIS is mostly grounded below sea level, its stability is of great concern. A collapse of large parts of the WAIS would result in a significant global sea-level rise. At present, the WAIS shows dramatic ice loss in its Amundsen Sea sector, especially in Pine Island Bay. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is characterised by fast flow, major thinning and rapid grounding-line retreat. Its mass los over recent decades is generally attributed to melting caused by the inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). Future melting of PIG may result in a sea level tipping point, because it could trigger widespread collapse of the WAIS, especially when considering ongoing climate change.

This study aimed to quantify the nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes at sites with different vegetation covers and where bird activity was present or absent using the static chamber method, on Rip Point, Nelson Island, maritime Antarctic. The sites were soils covered by Sanionia uncinata, lichens, Prasiola crispa, Deschampsia antarctica and bare soil. Seabirds used the P. crispa and D. antarctica sites as nesting areas. Soil mineral N contents, air and soil temperature and water-filled pore space were measured, and the content of total organic C and particulate organic C, total N, bulk density and texture were determined to identify controlling variables of the gas emissions. The N2O and CH4 flux rates were low for all sampling events. Mean N2O flux rates ranged from 0.11±1.93 up to 21.25±22.14 µg N2O m−2 h−1 for the soils under lichen and P. crispa cover, respectively. For the CH4 fluxes, only the P. crispa site showed a low positive mean (0.47±3.61 µg CH4 m−2 h−1). The bare soil showed the greatest absorption of CH4 (−11.92±5.7 µg CH4 m−2 h−1), probably favoured by the coarse soil texture. Bare soil and S. uncinata sites had N2O accumulated emissions close to zero. Net CH4 accumulated emission was observed only at the P. crispa site, which was correlated with (p<0.001). These results indicate that seabird activity influences N2O and CH4 soil fluxes, while vegetation has little influence, and bare soil areas in maritime Antarctica could be greenhouse gas sinks. Keywords: Soil greenhouse gases; seabirds; vegetal cover; maritime Antarctica.

The late twentieth century was marked by a significant summertime trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of tropospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH). This trend with poleward shifting tropospheric westerlies was attributed to downward propagation of stratospheric changes induced by ozone depletion. However, the role of the ocean in setting the SAM response to ozone depletion and its dynamical forcing remains unclear. Here we show, using idealized experiments with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model and analysis of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate simulations, that frontal sea surface temperature gradients in the midlatitude SH are critical for translating the ozone-induced stratospheric changes down to the surface. This happens through excitation of wave forcing, which controls the vertical connection of the tropospheric SAM with the stratosphere and shows the importance of internal tropospheric dynamics for stratosphere/troposphere coupling. Thus, improved simulation of oceanic fronts may reduce uncertainties in simulating SH ozone-induced climate changes.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

Migratory routes and the areas used during winter have probably been selected to maximize fitness by providing favorable environmental conditions outside the breeding season. In polar environments, because of the extreme winter weather, most breeding species migrate to encounter better conditions in areas that can differ between and also within species. Using geolocation sensors, we found that south polar skuas Catharacta maccormicki from 2 distant populations breeding on the Antarctic continent along the Atlantic and Indian Oceans migrate northward to winter in tropical Indian Ocean and in temperate North Pacific waters, respectively. Most individuals from each population winter in different environmental conditions, with water temperatures ranging from 16 to 29°C. Nevertheless, they have very similar activity patterns, spending more than 80% of their time on the water, and their feather δ15N values suggest that they probably feed at similar trophic levels during the molt. During overwintering, the overall and constant low activity level may be partly imposed by molting constraints, but it also suggests that trophic conditions are good for skuas. The wintering areas of the species correspond to sectors of high concentrations of breeding or wintering tropical, Northern, and Southern Hemisphere seabird species that are likely to be kleptoparasitized by skuas. A certain degree of individual variation exists within each population, which induces a spatial overlap in the wintering grounds of distant breeding populations. These results have potential important consequences in terms of fitness, genetic divergence, and susceptibility to climate change and marine pollution. KEYWORDS: Catharacta maccormicki · Geolocators · Migration · Population-specific strategies · Stable isotopes.