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Massive injection of 13C depleted carbon to the ocean and atmosphere coincided with major environmental upheaval multiple times in the geological record. For several events, the source of carbon has been attributed to explosive venting of gas produced when magmatic sills intruded organic-rich sediment. The concept mostly derives from studies of a few ancient sedimentary basins with numerous hydrothermal vent complexes (HTVCs) where craters appear to have formed across large areas of the seafloor at the same time, but good examples remain rare in strata younger than the Early Eocene. We present geophysical data documenting at least 150 large (km-scale) craters on the modern seafloor across ∼148,000 km2 of Scan Basin in the southern Scotia Sea, a remote region offshore Antarctica. Seismic and bathymetric information reveals the craters relate to vertical fluid pipes extending above dome-shaped forced folds and saucer-shaped igneous sills. Presumably, magmatic intrusions deform overlying sediment and produce thermogenic gas, where buoyant hydrothermal fluids migrate upwards from sill flanks through V-shaped gas chimneys to the seafloor. Fluid expulsion, driven by excess pore pressure, enhances vertical conduits and creates collapse structures on the seafloor. Age estimates for sill emplacement and crater formation come from correlations of seismic reflectors with bore hole data collected on IODP Expedition 382. Sills intruded into sediment at least two times, first about 12–13 Ma (Middle Miocene), which occurred with deep intrusions of stacked composite sills, and once about 0.9 Ma and associated with volcanism along Discovery Bank, which may have reactivated previous fluid venting. Crater reactivation has occurred since 0.9 Ma, although probably episodically. Importantly, at present-day, numerous craters related to sills and fluid pipes populate the seafloor above a young sedimentary basin, and the ocean and atmosphere are receiving massive quantities of 13C depleted carbon. The two phenomena are unrelated but, with changes in global climate and sedimentation, the craters could be filled simultaneously and give an impression in the rock record of rapid and coeval formation coincident with carbon emission. Interpretations of ancient HTVCs and their significance to global carbon cycling needs revision with consideration of modern seafloor regions with HTVCs, notably Scan Basin.

The polar regions are increasingly at the center of attention as the hot spots of climate crisis as well as tourism development. The recent IPCC reports highlight several climate change risks for the rather carbon-intensive and weather-based/dependent polar tourism industry in the Arctic and the Antarctic. This study presents the scholarly state-of-knowledge on tourism and climate change in the polar regions with a literature survey extending beyond the Anglophone publications. As a supporting tool, we provide a live web GIS application based on the geographical coverages of the publications and filterable by various spatial, thematic and bibliographical attributes. The final list of 137 publications indicates that, regionally, the Arctic has been covered more than the Antarctic, whilst an uneven distribution within the Arctic also exists. In terms of the climate change risks themes, climate risk research, i.e. impact and adaptation studies, strongly outnumbers the carbon risk studies especially in the Arctic context, and, despite a balance between the two main risk themes, climate risk research in the Antarctic proves itself outdated. Accordingly, the review ends with a research agenda based on these spatial and thematic gaps and their detailed breakdowns.

Abstract In this study, the subseasonal Antarctic sea ice edge prediction skill of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects was evaluated by a probabilistic metric, the spatial probability score (SPS). Both projects provide subseasonal to seasonal scale forecasts of multiple coupled dynamical systems. We found that predictions by individual dynamical systems remain skillful for up to 38 days (i.e., the ECMWF system). Regionally, dynamical systems are better at predicting the sea ice edge in the West Antarctic than in the East Antarctic. However, the seasonal variations of the prediction skill are partly system-dependent as some systems have a freezing-season bias, some had a melting-season bias, and some had a season-independent bias. Further analysis reveals that the model initialization is the crucial prerequisite for skillful subseasonal sea ice prediction. For those systems with the most realistic initialization, the model physics dictates the propagation of initialization errors and, consequently, the temporal length of predictive skill. Additionally, we found that the SPS-characterized prediction skill could be improved by increasing the ensemble size to gain a more realistic ensemble spread. Based on the C3S systems, we constructed a multi-model forecast from the above principles. This forecast consistently demonstrated a superior prediction skill compared to individual dynamical systems or statistical observation-based benchmarks. In summary, our results elucidate the most important factors (i.e., the model initialization and the model physics) affecting the currently available subseasonal Antarctic sea ice prediction systems and highlighting the opportunities to improve them significantly.

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

The polar regions are facing a wide range of compounding challenges, from climate change to increased human activity. Infrastructure, rescue services, and disaster response capabilities are limited in these remote environments. Relevant and usable weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) information is vital for safety, activity success, adaptation, and environmental protection. This has been a key focus for the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular its “Societal and Economic Research and Applications” (PPP-SERA) Task Team, which together over a decade have sought to understand polar WWIC information use in relation to operational needs, constraints, and decision contexts to inform the development of relevant services. To understand research progress and gaps on WWIC information use during the PPP (2013–23), we undertook a systematic bibliometric review of aligned scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles (n = 43), examining collaborations, topics, methods, and regional differences. Themes to emerge included activity and context, human factors, information needs, situational awareness, experience, local and Indigenous knowledge, and sharing of information. We observed an uneven representation of disciplinary backgrounds, geographic locations, research topics, and sectoral foci. Our review signifies an overall lack of Antarctic WWIC services research and a dominant focus on Arctic sea ice operations and risks. We noted with concern a mismatch between user needs and services provided. Our findings can help to improve WWIC services’ dissemination, communication effectiveness, and actionable knowledge provision for users and guide future research as the critical need for salient weather services across the polar regions remains beyond the PPP. Significance Statement Every day, people in the Arctic and Antarctic use weather, water, ice, and climate information to plan and carry out outdoor activities and operations in a safe way. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction, technology, and product development, barriers to accessing and effectively communicating high-quality usable observations, forecasts, and actionable knowledge remain. Poorer services, prediction accuracy, and interpretation are exacerbated by a lack of integrated social science research on relevant topics and a mismatch between the services provided and user needs. As a result, continued user engagement, research focusing on information use, risk communication, decision-making processes, and the application of science for services remain highly relevant to reducing risks and improving safety for people living, visiting, and working in the polar regions.

The ongoing global climate crisis increases temperatures in polar regions faster and with greater magnitude than elsewhere. The decline of Arctic sea ice opens up new passages, eventually leading to higher anthropogenic activities such as shipping, fishing, and mining. Climate change and anthropogenic activities will increase contaminant transport from temperate to Arctic regions. The shipping industry uses copper as an antifouling coating. Copper is an essential element but becomes toxic at excess concentrations, and its use may inadvertently affect non-target organisms such as copepods. Copper affects copepods by lowering reproductive output, prolonging developmental time, and causing increased mortality. As data on copper sensitivity of polar copepods at low temperatures are rare, we conducted onboard survival experiments with the Arctic region’s most common copepod species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. hyperboreus). Acute survival tests were done for up to 8 days on individuals in 70 ml bottles at 1 °C with nominal copper concentrations ranging from 3 to 480 μg L−1. We used a reduced General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) to analyse the data, and placed our results in the context of the few published copper sensitivity data of the Antarctic and temperate copepod species at low temperatures. The sensitivity of Cu exposure was similar between the three Calanus species. However, a model comparison suggests that the tested C. glacialis population is less sensitive than the other two species in our experiments. Compared to published data, the three Arctic species appear slightly less sensitive to copper compared to their Antarctic counterparts but more compared to their temperate ones. Our literature search revealed only a few available studies on the copper sensitivity of polar copepods. In the future, this species group will be exposed to more pollutants, which warrants more studies to predict potential risks, especially given possible interactions with environmental factors.

Warmer ocean conditions could impact future ice loss from Antarctica due to their ability to thin and reduce the buttressing of laterally confined ice shelves. Previous studies highlight the potential for a cold to warm ocean regime shift within the sub-shelf cavities of the two largest Antarctic ice shelves—the Filchner–Ronne and Ross. However, how this impacts upstream ice flow and mass loss has not been quantified. Here using an ice sheet model and an ensemble of ocean-circulation model sub-shelf melt rates, we show that transition to a warm state in those ice shelf cavities leads to a destabilization and irreversible grounding line retreat in some locations. Once this ocean shift takes place, ice loss from the Filchner–Ronne and Ross catchments is greatly accelerated, and conditions begin to resemble those of the present-day Amundsen Sea sector—responsible for most current observed Antarctic ice loss—where this thermal shift has already occurred.

The absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Southern Ocean represents a critical component of the global oceanic carbon budget. Previous assessments of air-sea carbon flux variations and long-term trends in polar regions during winter have faced limitations due to scarce field data and the lack of ocean color satellite imagery, causing uncertainties in estimating CO2 flux estimation. This study utilized the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation satellite to construct a continuous 16-year (2006?2021) time series of sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the Southern Ocean. Our findings revealed that the polar region in South Ocean acts as a carbon sink in winter, with CO2 flux of ?30 TgC in high-latitude areas (South of 50°S). This work highlights the efficacy of active remote sensing for monitoring sea surface pCO2 and contributes insights into the dynamic carbonate systems of the Southern Ocean.

Future mass loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet represents a major uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Recent studies have highlighted the potential vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric and oceanic changes, but long-term observations inside the ice shelf cavities are rare. Here, we present new insights from observations from three oceanic moorings below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf from 2009 to 2023. We examine the characteristics of intrusions of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) across a sill connecting the cavity to the open ocean and investigate seasonal variability of the circulation and water masses inside the cavity using an optimum multiparameter analysis. In autumn, the water below the 345 m deep central part of the ice shelf is composed of up to 30 % solar-heated, buoyant Antarctic Surface Water (ASW), separating colder Ice Shelf Water from the ice base and affecting the cavity circulation on seasonal timescales. At depth, the occurrence of mWDW is associated with the advection of cyclonic eddies across the sill into the cavity. These eddies reach up to the ice base. The warm intrusions are observed most often from January to March and from September to November, and traces of mWDW-derived meltwater close to the ice base imply an overturning of these warm intrusions inside the cavity. We suggest that this timing is set by both the offshore thermocline depth and the interactions of the Antarctic Slope Current with the ice shelf topography over the continental slope. Our findings provide a better understanding of the interplay between shallow inflows of ASW contributions and deep inflows of mWDW for basal melting at Fimbulisen Ice Shelf, with implications for the potential vulnerability of the ice shelf to climate change.

Abstract Global warming has prompted globally widespread permafrost thawing, resulting in enhanced greenhouse gas release into the atmosphere. Studies conducted in the Northern Hemisphere reveal an alarming increase in permafrost thawing. However, similar data from Antarctica are scarce. We conducted a 2-D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography (DERT) survey in Taylor Valley, Antarctica, to image the distribution of permafrost, its thicknesses, lower boundaries, and hydrogeology. Results show resistive, discontinuous domains that we suggest represent permafrost units. We also find highly conductive layers (5?10 Ω·m), between 300?350 m and 600?650 m below ground level and a shallower (?50?100 m depth) conductive layer. The combined data set reveals a broad brine system in Taylor Valley, implying multi-tiered groundwater circulation: a shallow, localized system linked with surface water bodies and a separate deeper, regional circulation system. The arrangement of these brines across different levels, coupled with the uneven permafrost distribution, underscores potential interplay between the two systems.

Ocean general circulation models at the eddy-permitting regime are known to under-resolve the mesoscale eddy activity and associated eddy-mean interaction. Under-resolving the mesoscale eddy field has consequences for the resulting mean state, affecting the modelled ocean circulation and biogeochemical responses, and impacting the quality of climate projections. There is an ongoing debate on whether and how a parameterisation should be utilised in the eddy-permitting regime. Focusing on the Gent–McWilliams (GM) based parameterisations, it is known that, on the one hand, not utilising a parameterisation leads to insufficient eddy feedback and results in biases. On the other hand, utilising a parameterisation leads to double-counting of the eddy feedback, and introduces other biases. A recently proposed approach, known as splitting, modifies the way GM-based schemes are applied in eddy-permitting regimes, and has been demonstrated to be effective in an idealised Southern Ocean channel model. In this work, we evaluate whether the splitting approach can lead to improvements in the physical and biogeochemical responses in an idealised double gyre model. Compared with a high resolution mesoscale eddy resolving model truth, the use of the GM-based GEOMETRIC parameterisation together with splitting in the eddy-permitting regime leads to broad improvements in the control pre-industrial scenario and an idealised climate change scenario, over models with and models without the GM-based GEOMETRIC parameterisation active. While there are still some deficiencies, particularly in the subtropical region where the transport is too weak and may need momentum re-injection to reduce the biases, the present work provides further evidence in support of using the splitting procedure together with a GM-based parameterisation in ocean general circulation models at eddy-permitting resolutions.

Ice streams regulate most ice mass loss in Antarctica. Determining ice stream response to warmer conditions during the Pliocene could provide insights into their future behaviour, but this is hindered by a poor representation of subglacial topography in ice-sheet models. We address this limitation using a high-resolution model for Dronning Maud Land (East Antarctica). We show that contrary to dynamic thinning of the region’s ice streams following ice-shelf collapse, the largest ice stream, Jutulstraumen, thickens by 700 m despite lying on a retrograde bed slope. We attribute this counterintuitive thickening to a shallower Pliocene subglacial topography and inherent high lateral stresses at its flux gate. These conditions constrict ice drainage and, combined with increased snowfall, allow ice accumulation upstream. Similar stress balances and increased precipitation projections occur across 27% of present-day East Antarctica, and understanding how lateral stresses regulate ice-stream discharge is necessary for accurately assessing Antarctica’s future sea-level rise contribution.

The past six years have been marked by some of the most dramatic climatic events observed in the Antarctic region in recent history, commencing with the 2017 sea-ice extreme low. The Humpback Whale Sentinel Programme is a circum-polar biomonitoring program for long term surveillance of the Antarctic sea-ice ecosystem. It has previously signalled the extreme La Niña event of 2010/11, and it was therefore of interest to assess the capacity of existing biomonitoring measures under the program to detect the impacts of 2017 anomalous climatic events. Six ecophysiological markers of population adiposity, diet, and fecundity were targeted, as well as calf and juvenile mortality via stranding records. All indicators, with the exception of bulk stable isotope dietary tracers, indicated a negative trend in 2017, whilst C and N bulk stable isotopes appeared to indicate a lag phase resulting from the anomalous year. The collation of multiple biochemical, chemical, and observational lines of evidence via a single biomonitoring platform provides comprehensive information for evidence-led policy in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region.

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt.

Crossing a key atmospheric CO2 threshold triggered a fundamental global climate reorganisation ~34 million years ago (Ma) establishing permanent Antarctic ice sheets. Curiously, a more dramatic CO2 decline (~800–400 ppm by the Early Oligocene(~27 Ma)), postdates initial ice sheet expansion but the mechanisms driving this later, rapid drop in atmospheric carbon during the early Oligocene remains elusive and controversial. Here we use marine seismic reflection and borehole data to reveal an unprecedented accumulation of early Oligocene strata (up to 2.2 km thick over 1500 × 500 km) with a major biogenic component in the Australian Southern Ocean. High-resolution ocean simulations demonstrate that a tectonically-driven, one-off reorganisation of ocean currents, caused a unique period where current instability coincided with high nutrient input from the Antarctic continent. This unrepeated and short-lived environment favoured extreme bioproductivity and enhanced sediment burial. The size and rapid accumulation of this sediment package potentially holds ~1.067 × 1015 kg of the ‘missing carbon’ sequestered during the decline from an Eocene high CO2-world to a mid-Oligocene medium CO2-world, highlighting the exceptional role of the Southern Ocean in modulating long-term climate.

Global warming is affecting the population dynamics and trophic interactions across a wide range of ecosystems and habitats. Translating these real-time effects into their long-term consequences remains a challenge. The rapid and extreme warming period that occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (7–12 thousand years ago) provides an opportunity to gain insights into the long-term responses of natural populations to periods with global warming. The effects of this post-LGM warming period have been assessed in many terrestrial taxa, whereas insights into the impacts of rapid global warming on marine taxa remain limited, especially for megafauna. In order to understand how large-scale climate fluctuations during the post-LGM affected baleen whales and their prey, we conducted an extensive, large-scale analysis of the long-term effects of the post-LGM warming on abundance and inter-ocean connectivity in eight baleen whale and seven prey (fish and invertebrates) species across the Southern and the North Atlantic Ocean; two ocean basins that differ in key oceanographic features. The analysis was based upon 7032 mitochondrial DNA sequences as well as genome-wide DNA sequence variation in 100 individuals. The estimated temporal changes in genetic diversity during the last 30,000 years indicated that most baleen whale populations underwent post-LGM expansions in both ocean basins. The increase in baleen whale abundance during the Holocene was associated with simultaneous changes in their prey and climate. Highly correlated, synchronized and exponential increases in abundance in both baleen whales and their prey in the Southern Ocean were indicative of a dramatic increase in ocean productivity. In contrast, the demographic fluctuations observed in baleen whales and their prey in the North Atlantic Ocean were subtle, varying across taxa and time. Perhaps most important was the observation that the ocean-wide expansions and decreases in abundance that were initiated by the post-LGM global warming, continued for millennia after global temperatures stabilized, reflecting persistent, long-lasting impacts of global warming on marine fauna.

Systematic long-term studies on ecosystem dynamics are largely lacking from the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, although it is well recognized that they are indispensable to identify the ecological impacts and risks of environmental change. Here, we present a framework for establishing a long-term cross-disciplinary study on decadal timescales. We argue that the eastern Weddell Sea and the adjacent sea to the east, off Dronning Maud Land, is a particularly well suited area for such a study, since it is based on findings from previous expeditions to this region. Moreover, since climate and environmental change have so far been comparatively muted in this area, as in the eastern Antarctic in general, a systematic long-term study of its environmental and ecological state can provide a baseline of the current situation, which will be important for an assessment of future changes from their very onset, with consistent and comparable time series data underpinning and testing models and their projections. By establishing an Integrated East Antarctic Marine Research (IEAMaR) observatory, long-term changes in ocean dynamics, geochemistry, biodiversity, and ecosystem functions and services will be systematically explored and mapped through regular autonomous and ship-based synoptic surveys. An associated long-term ecological research (LTER) programme, including experimental and modelling work, will allow for studying climate-driven ecosystem changes and interactions with impacts arising from other anthropogenic activities. This integrative approach will provide a level of long-term data availability and ecosystem understanding that are imperative to determine, understand, and project the consequences of climate change and support a sound science-informed management of future conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean.

The climate of maritime Antarctica has altered since the 1950s. However, the effects of increased temperature, precipitation and organic carbon and nitrogen availability on the fungal communities inhabiting the barren and oligotrophic fellfield soils that are widespread across the region are poorly understood. Here, we test how warming with open top chambers (OTCs), irrigation and the organic substrates glucose, glycine and tryptone soy broth (TSB) influence a fungal community inhabiting an oligotrophic maritime Antarctic fellfield soil. In contrast with studies in vegetated soils at lower latitudes, OTCs increased fungal community alpha diversity (Simpson’s index and evenness) by 102–142% in unamended soil after 5 years. Conversely, OTCs had few effects on diversity in substrate-amended soils, with their only main effects, in glycine-amended soils, being attributable to an abundance of Pseudogymnoascus. The substrates reduced alpha and beta diversity metrics by 18–63%, altered community composition and elevated soil fungal DNA concentrations by 1–2 orders of magnitude after 5 years. In glycine-amended soil, OTCs decreased DNA concentrations by 57% and increased the relative abundance of the yeast Vishniacozyma by 45-fold. The relative abundance of the yeast Gelidatrema declined by 78% in chambered soil and increased by 1.9-fold in irrigated soil. Fungal DNA concentrations were also halved by irrigation in TSB-amended soils. In support of regional- and continental-scale studies across climatic gradients, the observations indicate that soil fungal alpha diversity in maritime Antarctica will increase as the region warms, but suggest that the accumulation of organic carbon and nitrogen compounds in fellfield soils arising from expanding plant populations are likely, in time, to attenuate the positive effects of warming on diversity.

The flightless midge Eretmoptera murphyi is thought to be continuing its invasion of Signy Island via the treads of personnel boots. Current boot-wash biosecurity protocols in the Antarctic region rely on microbial biocides, primarily Virkon® S. As pesticides have limited approval for use in the Antarctic Treaty area, we investigated the efficacy of Virkon® S in controlling the spread of E. murphyi using boot-wash simulations and maximum threshold exposures. We found that E. murphyi tolerates over 8 h of submergence in 1% Virkon® S. Higher concentrations increased effectiveness, but larvae still exhibited > 50% survival after 5 h in 10% Virkon® S. Salt and hot water treatments (without Virkon® S) were explored as possible alternatives. Salt water proved ineffective, with mortality only in first-instar larvae across multi-day exposures. Larvae experienced 100% mortality when exposed for 10 s to 50°C water, but they showed complete survival at 45°C. Given that current boot-wash protocols alone are an ineffective control of this invasive insect, we advocate hot water (> 50°C) to remove soil, followed by Virkon® S as a microbial biocide on ‘clean’ boots. Implications for the spread of invasive invertebrates as a result of increased human activity in the Antarctic region are discussed.

Antarctic sea ice has paradoxically become more extensive over the past four decades despite a warming climate. The regional expression of this trend has been linked to changes in vertical redistribution of ocean heat and large-scale wind-field shifts. However, the short length of modern observations has hindered attempts to attribute this trend to anthropogenic forcing or natural variability. Here, we present two new decadal-resolution records of sea ice and sea surface temperatures that document pervasive regional climate heterogeneity in Indian Antarctic sea-ice cover over the last 2,000 years. Data assimilation of our marine records in a climate model suggests that the reconstructed dichotomous regional conditions were driven by the multi-decadal variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). For example, during an El Niño/SAM– combination, the northward sea-ice transport was reduced while heat advection from the subtropics to the Southern Ocean increased, which resulted in reduced sea-ice extent in the Indian sector as sea ice was compacted along the Antarctic coast. Our results therefore indicate that natural variability is large in the Southern Ocean and suggest that it has played a crucial role in the recent sea-ice trends and their decadal variability in this region.