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As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt.

Changes in ocean-driven basal melting have a key influence on the stability of ice shelves, the mass loss from the ice sheet, ocean circulation, and global sea level rise. Coupled ice sheet–ocean models play a critical role in understanding future ice sheet evolution and examining the processes governing ice sheet responses to basal melting. However, as a new approach, coupled ice sheet–ocean systems come with new challenges, and the impacts of solutions implemented to date have not been investigated. An emergent feature in several contributing coupled models to the 1st Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP1) was a time-varying oscillation in basal melt rates. Here, we use a recently developed coupling framework, FISOC (v1.1), to connect the modified ocean model ROMSIceShelf (v1.0) and ice sheet model Elmer/Ice (v9.0), to investigate the origin and implications of the feature and, more generally, the impact of coupled modeling strategies on the simulated basal melt in an idealized ice shelf cavity based on the MISOMIP setup. We found the spatial-averaged basal melt rates (3.56 m yr−1) oscillated with an amplitude ∼0.7 m yr−1 and approximate period of ∼6 years between year 30 and 100 depending on the experimental design. The melt oscillations emerged in the coupled system and the standalone ocean model using a prescribed change of cavity geometry. We found that the oscillation feature is closely related to the discretized ungrounding of the ice sheet, exposing new ocean, and is likely strengthened by a combination of positive buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and the frequent coupling of ice geometry and ocean evolution. Sensitivity tests demonstrate that the oscillation feature is always present, regardless of the choice of coupling interval, vertical resolution in the ocean model, tracer properties of cells ungrounded by the retreating ice sheet, or the dependency of friction velocities to the vertical resolution. However, the amplitude, phase, and sub-cycle variability of the oscillation varied significantly across the different configurations. We were unable to ultimately determine whether the feature arises purely due to numerical issues (related to discretization) or a compounding of multiple physical processes amplifying a numerical artifact. We suggest a pathway and choices of physical parameters to help other efforts understand the coupled ice sheet–ocean system using numerical models.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Study of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is critical to estimate its potential contribution to global sea-level rise in the future. As the largest drainage system, the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf drainage system plays an important role in the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In this study, the ice thickness measured by airborne ice-penetrating radar with high spatial resolution and accuracy and accurate ice velocity measured by in situ GPS stations along the route of the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition inland traverse were used to calculate the ice flux with unprecedented accuracy. This transverse is from Zhongshan Station to Dome A, passing through the east side of the Lambert Glacier and the smaller coastal glacier in the C-Cp basin. The results show that the ice flux across the entire traverse is 24.7 ± 2.8 Gt a−1, along which the section in drainage basin B–C (Lambert Glacier) has an ice flux of 20.9 ± 1.9 Gt a−1 and the section in drainage basin C–Cp (basin adjacent to Lambert Glacier) contributed 3.8 ± 0.4 Gt a−1. The ice flux values in both regions are coincident with the mass balance calculated from the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite, Earth Observing System. Meanwhile, the C–Cp basin shows an ice flux value of 6.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 across the grounding line.

Understanding changes in Antarctic ice shelf basal melting is a major challenge for predicting future sea level. Currently, warm Circumpolar Deep Water surrounding Antarctica has limited access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf; consequently, melt rates at Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf are low. However, large-scale model projections suggest that changes to the Antarctic Slope Front and the coastal circulation may enhance warm inflows within this century. We use a regional high-resolution ice shelf cavity and ocean circulation model to explore forcing changes that may trigger this regime shift. Our results suggest two necessary conditions for supporting a sustained warm inflow into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity: (i) an extreme relaxation of the Antarctic Slope Front density gradient and (ii) substantial freshening of the dense shelf water. We also find that the on-shelf transport over the western Weddell Sea shelf is sensitive to the Filchner Trough overflow characteristics.

The shape of ice shelf cavities are a major source of uncertainty in understanding ice-ocean interactions. This limits assessments of the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to climate change. Here we use vibroseis seismic reflection surveys to map the bathymetry beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land. The new bathymetry reveals an inland-sloping trough, reaching depths of 1,100 m below sea level, near the current grounding line, which we attribute to erosion by palaeo-ice streams. The trough does not cross-cut the outer parts of the continental shelf. Conductivity-temperature-depth profiles within the ice shelf cavity reveal the presence of cold water at shallower depths and tidal mixing at the ice shelf margins. It is unknown if warm water can access the trough. The new bathymetry is thought to be representative of many ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land, which together regulate the ice loss from a substantial area of East Antarctica.

Antarktis kan virke som det sover under en beskyttende dyne av snø og is. Kontinentet har vært lite påvirket av menneskelig aktivitet, men har nå begynt å våkne. Klimaendringene har nådd fram til det frosne kontinentet ved Sørpolen. Relativt varme og salte havstrømmer kommer seg nå helt inn til isen. Men satellitter viser at det smelter mindre is enn det som hadde vært mulig med den tilgjengelige mengden varme. Vi har brukt observasjoner og resultater fra laboratoriet for å forklare hvor det varme vannet blir av.

The Recovery subglacial basin, with its largest glacier Recovery Glacier, has been identified as potentially the biggest contributor to future sea level rise from East Antarctica. Subglacial lakes along the main trunk have been detected from satellite data, with four giant lakes (Recovery Lakes A, B, C, and D) located at the onset of the fast ice flow (≥15 m/yr) and multiple smaller lakes along the glacier. The presence of subglacial water potentially plays a key role in the control of fast ice flow of Recovery Glacier. We present new insights on the Recovery Lakes from airborne radar data collected in 2013 and 2015. Using an adjusted classification scheme, we show that a single large area consisting of smaller lakes connected by likely saturated sediment, referred to as Lake AB, exists in the originally proposed area of the Recovery Lakes A and B. We estimate that the current size of Lake AB is ∼4,320 km2. Water likely leaks from the western shore of Lake AB lubricating the bed initiating fast ice flow at this location. The difference in the outlines of Lake AB and the Lakes A and B previously derived from surface features suggested that a larger paleolake existed here in the past. From our data, we find Recovery Lake C to be dry; we attribute fast ice flow originating from this area to be due to a topographic step and thus an increase in ice thickness rather than enhanced lubrication at the bed.

The region of Recovery Glacier, Slessor Glacier, and Bailey Ice Stream, East Antarctica, has remained poorly explored, despite representing the largest potential contributor to future global sea level rise on a centennial to millennial time scale. Here we use new airborne radar data to improve knowledge about the bed topography and investigate controls of fast ice flow. Recovery Glacier is underlain by an 800 km long trough. Its fast flow is controlled by subglacial water in its upstream and topography in its downstream region. Fast flow of Slessor Glacier is controlled by the presence of subglacial water on a rough crystalline bed. Past ice flow of adjacent Recovery and Slessor Glaciers was likely connected via the newly discovered Recovery-Slessor Gate. Changes in direction and speed of past fast flow likely occurred for upstream parts of Recovery Glacier and between Slessor Glacier and Bailey Ice Stream. Similar changes could also reoccur here in the future.

Isen i Antarktis smelter ikkje med det første, men store endringar er undervegs i havet. Havvatnet rundt Antarktis er iskaldt, men nå observerer vi at varmare vatn strøymer innunder den flytande delen av is-kappen. Om denne utviklinga ikkje stopper vil meir innlandsis strøyme ut i havet og føre til at havnivået vil stige med fleire meter. Det er langt frå sikkert at dette vil skje, men det er eit veldig viktig klimaspørsmål som vi må forstå betre. Difor har Uni Research med støtte av Forskingsrådet og Polarinstituttet bygd fleire havobservatorium for å kunne gi eit tidleg varsel dramatisk endringar.

Tabular iceberg calving and ice shelf retreat occurs after full-thickness fractures, known as rifts, propagate across an ice shelf. A quickly evolving rift signals a threat to the stability of Larsen C, the Antarctic Peninsula's largest ice shelf. Here we reveal the influence of ice shelf heterogeneity on the growth of this rift, with implications that challenge existing notions of ice shelf stability. Most of the rift extension has occurred in bursts after overcoming the resistance of suture zones that bind together neighboring glacier inflows. We model the stresses in the ice shelf to determine potential rift trajectories. Calving perturbations to ice flow will likely reach the grounding line. The stability of Larsen C may hinge on a single suture zone that stabilizes numerous upstream rifts. Elevated fracture toughness of suture zones may be the most important property that allows ice shelves to modulate Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise.

The responses of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) to the 16 September 2015 8.3 (Mw) Chilean earthquake tsunami (>75 s period) and to oceanic infragravity (IG) waves (50–300 s period) were recorded by a broadband seismic array deployed on the RIS from November 2014 to November 2016. Here we show that tsunami and IG-generated signals within the RIS propagate at gravity wave speeds (∼70 m/s) as water-ice coupled flexural-gravity waves. IG band signals show measureable attenuation away from the shelf front. The response of the RIS to Chilean tsunami arrivals is compared with modeled tsunami forcing to assess ice shelf flexural-gravity wave excitation by very long period (VLP; >300 s) gravity waves. Displacements across the RIS are affected by gravity wave incident direction, bathymetry under and north of the shelf, and water layer and ice shelf thicknesses. Horizontal displacements are typically about 10 times larger than vertical displacements, producing dynamical extensional motions that may facilitate expansion of existing fractures. VLP excitation is continuously observed throughout the year, with horizontal displacements highest during the austral winter with amplitudes exceeding 20 cm. Because VLP flexural-gravity waves exhibit no discernable attenuation, this energy must propagate to the grounding zone. Both IG and VLP band flexural-gravity waves excite mechanical perturbations of the RIS that likely promote tabular iceberg calving, consequently affecting ice shelf evolution. Understanding these ocean-excited mechanical interactions is important to determine their effect on ice shelf stability to reduce uncertainty in the magnitude and rate of global sea level rise.

Ice discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet directly impacts global sea level, making ice sheet dynamics a central topic in antarctic research. Glaciologists are studying a poorly understood but potentially important phenomenon that looks like a little hill of ice. They call these hills “ice rises”.

The increasing contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise is linked to reductions in ice shelf buttressing, driven in large part by basal melting of ice shelves. These ocean-driven buttressing losses are being compounded as ice shelves weaken and fracture. To date, model projections of ice sheet evolution have not accounted for weakening ice shelves. Here we present the first constitutive framework for ice deformation that explicitly includes mechanical weakening, based on observations of the progressive degradation of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf from 2000 to 2015. We implement this framework in an ice sheet model and are able to reproduce most of the observed weakening of the ice shelf. In addition to predicting ice shelf weakening and reduced buttressing, this new framework opens the door for improved understanding and predictions of iceberg calving, meltwater routing and hydrofracture, and ice shelf collapse.

The mid-Piacenzian (~3 Ma) represents the most recent warm period in Earth's history on a geological time scale; it is characterized by a significant rise of global sea level. The simulation of the size and location of the ice sheets and the investigation of the uncertainty in the simulations are potentially helpful for constraining reconstructed sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) in the mid-Piacenzian. We investigate the influence of topography correction, model parameters, climate forcings, and model resolution on the modeled AIS and explore the isolated role of atmospheric and oceanic forcings. Forced by the simulated climate changes with the Norwegian Earth System Model, the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (15 km × 15 km) produces a nearly collapsed West AIS (WAIS) in the mid-Piacenzian, with no significant retreat of the East AIS (EAIS). The role of increased air temperature plays a key role in the mass loss of the mid-Piacenzian AIS, while its role is comparable to the role of ocean warming on the melting of the WAIS. In terms of the range of sea level changes, the largest source of uncertainty in the modeled AIS is derived from ice sheet model parameters and climate forcings. Although the employed model parameters, topography correction factors, and model resolution affect the simulated AIS in the mid-Piacenzian, large-scale deglaciation of the EAIS in our sensitivity experiments may only be possible with additional warming.

I klimatsammanhang har strålkastarljuset länge varit riktade mot de känsliga polarområdena och smältande is. Bilder på isbjörnar som klamrar sig fast vid ett ensamt isflak figurerar varje höst i media när årets – ofta rekordlåga – minimum i utbredning av Arktisk havsis offentliggörs. Men nyligen har is-överskrifterna allt oftare kommit söderifrån, de har handlat om Antarktis, om shelf-is som smälter, om en stigande havsnivå och om möjligheten för att inlandsisen i Väst-Antarktis ska kollapsa.

Nearly three decades of stable isotope ratios and surface mass balance (SMB) data from eight shallow firn cores retrieved at Fimbul Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, in the Austral summers 2009–2011 have been investigated. An additional longer core drilled in 2000/2001 extends the series back to the early eighteenth century. Isotope ratios and SMB from the stacked record of all cores were also related to instrumental temperature data from Neumayer Station on Ekström Ice Shelf. Since the second half of the twentieth century, the SMB shows a statistically significant negative trend, whereas the δ18O of the cores shows a significant positive trend. No trend is found in air temperature at the nearest suitable weather station, Neumayer (available since 1981). This does not correspond to the statistically significant positive trend in Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which is usually associated with a cooling of East Antarctica. SAM index and SMB are negatively correlated, which might be explained by a decrease in meridional exchange of energy and moisture leading to lower precipitation amounts. Future monitoring of climate change on the sensitive Antarctic ice shelves is necessary to assess its consequences for sea level change.

Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall. Here we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model, evaluated with available firn core records and gravimetry observations, and show that such episodes had not been seen previously in the satellite climate data era (1979). Comparisons with historical data that originate from firn cores, one with records extending back to the 18th century, confirm that accumulation anomalies of this scale have not occurred in the past ~60 years, although comparable anomalies are found further back in time. We examined several regional climate model projections, describing various warming scenarios into the 21st century. Anomalies with magnitudes similar to the recently observed ones were not present in the model output for the current climate, but were found increasingly probable toward the end of the 21st century.

Many challenges remain for estimating the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), which represents a major uncertainty in predictions of future sea-level rise. Validating continental scale studies is hampered by the sparse distribution of in situ data. Here we present a 26 year mean SMB of the Fimbul ice shelf in East Antarctica between 1983–2009, and recent interannual variability since 2010. We compare these data to the results of large-scale SMB studies for similar time periods, obtained from regional atmospheric modeling and remote sensing. Our in situ data include ground penetrating radar, firn cores, and mass balance stakes and provide information on both temporal and spatial scales. The 26 year mean SMB on the Fimbul ice shelf varies between 170 and 620 kg m−2 a−1 giving a regional average value of 310 ± 70 kg m−2 a−1. Our measurements indicate higher long-term accumulation over large parts of the ice shelf compared to the large-scale studies. We also show that the variability of the mean annual SMB, which can be up to 90%, can be a dominant factor in short-term estimates. The results emphasize the importance of using a combination of ground-based validation data, regional climate models, and remote sensing over a relevant time period in order to achieve a reliable SMB for Antarctica.