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The impact of late Cenozoic climate on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is uncertain. Poorly constrained patterns of relative ice thinning and thickening impair the reconstruction of past ice-sheet dynamics and global sea-level budgets. Here we quantify long-term ice cover of mountains protruding the ice-sheet surface in western Dronning Maud Land, using cosmogenic Chlorine-36, Aluminium-26, Beryllium-10, and Neon-21 from bedrock in an inverse modeling approach. We find that near-coastal sites experienced ice burial up to 75–97% of time since 1 Ma, while interior sites only experienced brief periods of ice burial, generally <20% of time since 1 Ma. Based on these results, we suggest that the escarpment in Dronning Maud Land acts as a hinge-zone, where ice-dynamic changes driven by grounding-line migration are attenuated inland from the coastal portions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and where precipitation-controlled ice-thickness variations on the polar plateau taper off towards the coast.

Surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet must be better understood to document the current Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. In situ point data using snow stakes and ice cores are often used to evaluate the state of the ice sheet's mass balance, as well as to assess SMB derived from regional climate models, which are then used to produce future climate projections. However, spatial representativeness of individual point data remains largely unknown, particularly in the coastal regions of Antarctica with highly variable terrain. Here, we compare ice core data collected at the summit of eight ice rises along the coast of Dronning Maud Land, as well as at the Dome Fuji site, and shallow ice-penetrating radar data over these regions. Shallow radar data have the advantage of being spatially extensive, with a temporal resolution that varies between a yearly and multi-year resolution, from which we can derive a SMB record over the entire radar survey. This comparison therefore allows us to evaluate the spatial variability of SMB and the spatial representativeness of ice-core-derived SMB. We found that ice core mean SMB is very local, and the difference with radar-derived SMB increases in a logarithmic fashion as the surface covered by the radar data increases, with a plateau ∼ 1–2 km away from the ice crest for most ice rises, where there are strong wind–topography interactions, and ∼ 10 km where the ice shelves begin. The relative uncertainty in measuring SMB also increases rapidly as we move away from the ice core sites. Five of our ice rise sites show a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability, while the other three sites show that it is limited to a surface area between 20–120 km2. The Dome Fuji site, on the other hand, shows a small difference between pointwise and area mean SMB, as well as a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability. We found no simple parameterization that could represent the spatial variability observed at all the sites. However, these data clearly indicate that local spatial SMB variability must be considered when assessing mass balance, as well as comparing modeled SMB values to point field data, and therefore must be included in the estimate of the uncertainty of the observations.

One of the key components of this research has been the mapping of Antarctic bed topography and ice thickness parameters that are crucial for modelling ice flow and hence for predicting future ice loss and the ensuing sea level rise. Supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Bedmap3 Action Group aims not only to produce new gridded maps of ice thickness and bed topography for the international scientific community, but also to standardize and make available all the geophysical survey data points used in producing the Bedmap gridded products. Here, we document the survey data used in the latest iteration, Bedmap3, incorporating and adding to all of the datasets previously used for Bedmap1 and Bedmap2, including ice bed, surface and thickness point data from all Antarctic geophysical campaigns since the 1950s. More specifically, we describe the processes used to standardize and make these and future surveys and gridded datasets accessible under the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data principles. With the goals of making the gridding process reproducible and allowing scientists to re-use the data freely for their own analysis, we introduce the new SCAR Bedmap Data Portal (https://bedmap.scar.org, last access: 1 March 2023) created to provide unprecedented open access to these important datasets through a web-map interface. We believe that this data release will be a valuable asset to Antarctic research and will greatly extend the life cycle of the data held within it. Data are available from the UK Polar Data Centre: https://data.bas.ac.uk (last access: 5 May 2023​​​​​​​). See the Data availability section for the complete list of datasets.

A major consideration for maritime activity in the Southern Hemisphere is the northern limit of icebergs, or the Southern Ocean Limit Of Known Ice (SOLOKI). This analysis of historical reports of icebergs during Southern Hemisphere voyages from 1687 to 1933 provides a basis for examination of their geographical and chronological occurrence during ~250 years. The analyses use tabulated data from 742 voyages and other reports from many sources, some including first-person descriptions. While these data are dependent on icebergs being reported by mariners, as well as the variable frequency of voyages, they demonstrate distinct periods of exceptional frequency of icebergs occurring in certain localities, particularly the far South Atlantic. Based upon historical records the evidence suggests unprecedented numbers of icebergs were present in southern shipping channels in the 1890s. When these historical observations are combined with modern iceberg drift trajectories, their possible origin can be elucidated. Owing to the numbers of icebergs seen and their geographical spread, our results suggest that this was possibly the largest near-synchronous calvings in the last 300 years, and the northernmost extent of the SOLOKI.

Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica.

Understanding how climate change influences ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is one of the greatest challenges for projecting future sea level rise. The East Antarctic ice shelf cavities host cold water masses that limit melting, and only a few short-term observational studies exist on what drives warm water intrusions into these cavities. We analyse nine years of continuous oceanographic records from below Fimbulisen and relate them to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. On monthly time scales, warm inflow events are associated with weakened coastal easterlies reducing downwelling in front of the ice shelf. Since 2016, however, we observe sustained warming, with inflowing Warm Deep Water temperatures reaching above 0 °C. This is concurrent with an increase in satellite-derived basal melt rates of 0.62 m yr−1, which nearly doubles the basal mass loss at this relatively cold ice shelf cavity. We find that this transition is linked to a reduction in coastal sea ice cover through an increase in atmosphere–ocean momentum transfer and to a strengthening of remote subpolar westerlies. These results imply that East Antarctic ice shelves may become more exposed to warmer waters with a projected increase of circum-Antarctic westerlies, increasing this region’s relevance for sea level rise projections.

Ice streams regulate most ice mass loss in Antarctica. Determining ice stream response to warmer conditions during the Pliocene could provide insights into their future behaviour, but this is hindered by a poor representation of subglacial topography in ice-sheet models. We address this limitation using a high-resolution model for Dronning Maud Land (East Antarctica). We show that contrary to dynamic thinning of the region’s ice streams following ice-shelf collapse, the largest ice stream, Jutulstraumen, thickens by 700 m despite lying on a retrograde bed slope. We attribute this counterintuitive thickening to a shallower Pliocene subglacial topography and inherent high lateral stresses at its flux gate. These conditions constrict ice drainage and, combined with increased snowfall, allow ice accumulation upstream. Similar stress balances and increased precipitation projections occur across 27% of present-day East Antarctica, and understanding how lateral stresses regulate ice-stream discharge is necessary for accurately assessing Antarctica’s future sea-level rise contribution.

At any one time 130 000 icebergs are afloat in the Southern Ocean; 97% of these are too small to be registered in current satellite-based databases, yet the melting of these small icebergs provides a major input to the Southern Ocean. We use a unique set of visual size observations of 53 000 icebergs in the South Atlantic Ocean, the SCAR International Iceberg Database, to derive average iceberg dissolution rates. Fracture into two parts is the dominant dissolution process for tabular icebergs, with an average half-life of 30 days for icebergs &lt;4 km length and 60 days for larger icebergs. Complete shatter producing many icebergs &lt;1 km length is rare. A side attrition rate of 0.23 m d−1 combined with drift speed of 6 km d−1, or any proportional change in both numbers fits the observed changes in iceberg distribution. The largest injection into the Southern Ocean of fresh water and any iceberg-transported material takes place in a ~2.3 × 10⁶ km2 zone extending east-northeast from the Antarctic Peninsula to the Greenwich meridian. The iceberg contribution to salinities and temperatures, with maximum contribution north of the Weddell Sea, differs in some regions, from those indicated by tracking large icebergs.

In 1981, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research endorsed a program for ship-based collection of Antarctic iceberg data, to be coordinated by the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI). From the austral summers 1982/1983 to 1997/1998, icebergs were recorded from most, and up to 2009/10 by fewer research vessels. The NPI database makes up 80% of the SCAR International Iceberg Database presented here, the remainder being Australian National Antarctic Research Expedition observations. The database contains positions of 374 142 icebergs resulting from 34 662 observations. Within these, 298 235 icebergs are classified into different size categories. The ship-based data are particularly useful because they include systematic observations of smaller icebergs not covered by current satellite-based datasets. Here, we assess regional and seasonal variations in iceberg density and total quantities, we identify drift patterns and exit zones from the continent, and we discuss iceberg dissolution rates and calving rates. There are significant differences in the extent of icebergs observed over the 30 plus years of observations, but much of these can be ascribed to differences in observation density and location. In the summer, Antarctic icebergs &gt;10 m in length number ~130 000 of which 1000 are found north of the Southern Ocean boundary.

We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq; %) and intensity (MPI-int; K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23%–35%, MPI-int 1.2–2.1 K), lowest (2%–3%, <0 K) for the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10%–24% and 0.6–1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3–4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties.

Observations of ocean-driven grounding-line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica raise the question of an imminent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under the present-day climate. To this aim, we first calibrate a sub-shelf melt parameterization, which is derived from an ocean box model, with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes, making it suitable for present-day simulations and future sea level projections. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend the simulations for another 10 000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing and bathymetry. We test for reversibility of grounding-line movement in the case that large-scale retreat occurs. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment we find irreversible retreat of the Thwaites Glacier for all our parameter combinations and irreversible retreat of the Pine Island Glacier for some admissible parameter combinations. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector is initiated at the earliest between 300 and 500 years in our simulations and is not inevitable yet – as also shown in our companion paper (Part 1, Hill et al., 2023). In other words, the region has not tipped yet. With the assumption of constant present-day climate, the collapse evolves on millennial timescales, with a maximum rate of 0.9 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. The contribution to sea level by 2300 is limited to 8 cm with a maximum rate of 0.4 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. Furthermore, when allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry, we find that large-scale grounding-line retreat into marine basins upstream of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the western Siple Coast is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Abstract Topographic variability beneath ice sheets regulates ice flow, basal melting, refreezing processes, and meltwater drainage. The preservation of old ice layers and basal ice stratigraphy is sensitive to these subglacial processes, and Dome Fuji, inland East Antarctica, is one of the few regions where 1.5-Ma old ice can be preserved for investigating a major climatic change that occurred in the mid-Pleistocene. We used stochastic simulation methods and radar data to generate an ensemble of simulated bed topography with the continuous and realistic roughness necessary to assess basal conditions. Ensemble analysis reveals the magnitude and spatial distribution of topographic uncertainty, facilitating uncertainty-constrained assessments of subglacial drainage and topographic adjustments to geothermal heat flow (GHF). We find that topographic variability can lead to widespread local GHF variations of ±20% of the background value, which aggregate to raise the regional value and suggest previously underestimated distributions and rates of basal melting. We also find that survey profile spacing has an increasing influence on topographic uncertainty for rougher bed, deriving an empirical relationship that could guide future survey planning based on uncertainty tolerance.