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Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project?Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%?40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ?10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt.

Curvilinear channels on the surface of an ice shelf indicate the presence of large channels at the base. Modelling studies have shown that where these surface expressions intersect the grounding line, they coincide with the likely outflow of subglacial water. An understanding of the initiation and the ice–ocean evolution of the basal channels is required to understand the present behaviour and future dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves. Here, we present focused active seismic and radar surveys of a basal channel, ∼950 m wide and ∼200 m high, and its upstream continuation beneath Support Force Glacier, which feeds into the Filchner Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. Immediately seaward from the grounding line, below the basal channel, the seismic profiles show an ∼6.75 km long, 3.2 km wide and 200 m thick sedimentary sequence with chaotic to weakly stratified reflections we interpret as a grounding line fan deposited by a subglacial drainage channel directly upstream of the basal channel. Further downstream the seabed has a different character; it consists of harder, stratified consolidated sediments, deposited under different glaciological circumstances, or possibly bedrock. In contrast to the standard perception of a rapid change in ice shelf thickness just downstream of the grounding line, we find a flat topography of the ice shelf base with an almost constant ice thickness gradient along-flow, indicating only little basal melting, but an initial widening of the basal channel, which we ascribe to melting along its flanks. Our findings provide a detailed view of a more complex interaction between the ocean and subglacial hydrology to form basal channels in ice shelves.

To better capture the air-snow-ice interaction, a snow/ice enhanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ice) model has been developed. This study examines the performance of WRF-ice and its blowing snow component during a strong cyclone event from October 23 to 27, 2017 over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is characterized by a synoptic cyclone crossing the northern part of the Peninsula and an embodied mesoscale cyclone over the Weddell Sea. Evolution of the cyclone is accurately reproduced in the 5-km resolution WRF-ice simulation, and the simulated near-surface conditions agree well with station and satellite observations. Numerical simulations show that the process of blowing snow sublimation can be prominent within the lower atmosphere when the air is dry, and produces moistening and cooling effects. Over relatively warm and humid areas, cloud enhancement by blowing snow can lead to either colder or warmer surfaces because of competing effects of longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcings. In particular, additional moisture from blowing snow sublimation can slightly intensify precipitation over the mountains. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that absorbed shortwave (Sa), incoming longwave (Ld), and outgoing longwave (Lu) are dominant components of surface energy budget. When increases in Ld, Lu, and sensible heat flux are combined with decreases in Sa and latent heat flux due to blowing snow effects, a negative surface net heat flux (∼0.5 W/m2) occurs during daytime. A positive domain-total surface mass balance (∼0.43 Gt) is generated during the simulated cyclone event due to increases in precipitation, decreases in runoff, and decreases in sublimation.

Mixing by mesoscale eddies profoundly impacts climate and ecosystems by redistributing and storing dissolved tracers such as heat and carbon. Eddy mixing is parameterized in most numerical models of the ocean and climate. To reduce known sensitivity to such parameterizations, observational estimates of mixing are needed. However, logistical and technological limitations obstruct our ability to measure global time-varying mixing rates. Here, we extend mixing length theory with mean-flow suppression theory, and first surface modes, to estimate mixing from readily available observational-based climatological data, of salinity, temperature, pressure, and eddy kinetic energy at the sea surface. The resulting full-depth global maps of eddy mixing can reproduce the few available direct estimates and confirm the importance of mean-flow suppression of mixing. The results also emphasize the significant effect of eddy surface intensification and its relation to the vertical density stratification. These new insights in mixing dynamics will improve future mesoscale eddy mixing parameterizations.

The high-latitude ionosphere is highly dynamical with significant irregularities and density gradients. However, the spatial and temporal distributions of density gradients and irregularities are very different between the Arctic and Antarctic. In this report, we study the interhemispheric asymmetry of the large-scale (100 km) density gradients in both polar caps. Our results show that density gradients in the Arctic are enhanced during local winter (December solstice) with a peak around 19 UT. The UT and spatial distributions in the Antarctic local winter (June solstice) are similar to the Arctic except that they are reversed by 12 hr, which indicates a mirror symmetry between hemispheres. The 12-hr difference in the peak density gradients can be explained by the displacements between the geographic and geomagnetic poles. The only asymmetry (anomaly) is the persistence of strong density gradients in the southern polar cap during local summer (December solstice).

Microcontinents and continental fragments are small pieces of continental crust that are surrounded by oceanic lithosphere. Although classically associated with passive margin formation, here we present several preserved microcontinents and continental fragments associated with subduction systems. They are located in the Coral Sea, South China Sea, central Mediterranean and Scotia Sea regions, and a “proto-microcontinent,” in the Gulf of California. Reviewing the tectonic history of each region and interpreting a variety of geophysical data allows us to identify parameters controlling the formation of microcontinents and continental fragments in subduction settings. All these tectonic blocks experienced long, complex tectonic histories with an important role for developing inherited structures. They tend to form in back-arc locations and separate from their parent continent by oblique or rotational kinematics. The separated continental pieces and associated marginal basins are generally small and their formation is quick (<50 Myr). Microcontinents and continental fragments formed close to large continental masses tend to form faster than those created in systems bordered by large oceanic plates. A common triggering mechanism for their formation is difficult to identify, but seems to be linked with rapid changes of complex subduction dynamics. The young ages of all contemporary pieces found in situ suggest that microcontinents and continental fragments in these settings are short lived. Although presently the amount of in-situ subduction-related microcontinents is meager (an area of 0.56% and 0.28% of global, non-cratonic, continental crustal area and crustal volume, respectively), through time microcontinents contributed to terrane amalgamation and larger continent formation.