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We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

The Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) and the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) collected around 150 hours of new gravity, magnetic and ice-penetrating radar data from east and south of Princess Elisabeth station in Dronning Maud Land between 2013 and 2015. Survey lines were spaced 10 km apart. The 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 used different gravimeters; a LaCoste and Romberg AirSea gravimeter (LCR) at constant barometric altitude and a Gravimetric Technologies GT2A gravimeter at constant ground separation. Both surveys used a Scintrex Cs-3 caesium vapour magnetometer mounted in a tail boom with compensation for the airframe calculated using a fuselage-mounted three-component fluxgate magnetometer. The GT2A gravity data reflect the effects of short-wavelength density contrasts between basement rocks and the ice sheet more reliably than the LCR data. Cross-over analysis suggests the repeatability of data collection with the GT2A lies at the sub-milliGal level. A broad subglacial channel that separates eastern Sør Rondane from the Yamato Belgica Mountains is evident in the gravity data. In the south of the survey region, the data reveal a dendritic pattern of subglacial valleys that converge towards the SW. Strong NS-trending magnetic anomalies coincide with the Yamato-Belgica Mountains. Further west, subtler ESE-trending anomalies confirm proposals that the SE Dronning Maud Land province continues into the region south of eastern Sør Rondane. An unexpected feature of both data sets is the apparent termination of the anomaly patterns associated with the province at a NNW-trending anomaly running south of Princess Elisabeth.

The geology of East Antarctica and its correlation in major supercontinents is highly speculative, since only a very small part of it is exposed. Therefore a better connection between geology and geophysics is needed in order to correlate exposed regions with ice-covered, geophysically-defined, blocks. In Dronning Maud Land (DML), two distinct late Mesoproterozoic/early Neoproterozoic tectono-metamorphic provinces appear, separated by the major, NE-trending Forster Magnetic Anomaly and South Orvin Shear Zone. To the west of this lineament, the Maud Belt has clear affinities with Grenville-age continent-continent mobile belts. East of the Forster Magnetic Anomaly, juvenile rocks with early Neoproterozoic age (Rayner-age) and an accretionary character crop out. The international GEA-II expedition (2012) targeted a white spot on the geological map immediately to the E of the Forster Magnetic Anomaly. This area allows the characterization and ground-truthing of a large and mostly ice-covered region, the SE DML Province that had previously been interpreted as an older cratonic block. However, new SHRIMP/SIMS zircon analyses and their geochemistry indicates that the exposed basement consists of a ca. 1000-900 Ma juvenile terrane that is very similar to rocks in Sor Rondane. It lacks significant metamorphic overprint at the end of crust formation, but it shows medium to high-grade overprinting between ca. 630-520 Ma, associated with significant felsic melt production, including A-type granitoid magmatism. Therefore, the aeromagnetically distinct SE DML province does neither represent the foreland of a Late Neoproterozoic/EarlyPaleozoic mobile belt, nor a craton, as has previously been speculated. It more likely represents the more juvenile, westward continuation of Rayner-age crust (1000-900 Ma). To the west it abuts along the NE-trending Forster Magnetic Anomaly. The latter is interpreted as a suture, which separates typical Grenville-age crust of the Maud Belt (ca. 1200-1030 Ma) to the W from Rayner-age crust to the E. Therefore the larger eastern part of DML has clearly Indian affinities. Its juvenile character with a lack of metamorphic overprint at the end of crust formation points to an accretionary history along this part of the Indian segment of Rodinia, immediately following final Rodinia assembly.

In the South Shetland Margin (SSM), Antarctic Peninsula, a bottom-simulating reflector indicates the presence of hydrate between ca. 500 and 3000 m water depth (mwd). The cold seabed temperatures allow hydrate stability at shallower water depths. During the past five decades, the Antarctic Peninsula has been warming up faster than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere, and long-term ocean warming could affect the stability of the SSM hydrate reservoir at shallow waters. Here, we model the transient response of the SSM hydrate reservoir between 375 and 450 mwd to ocean warming for the period 1958–2100. For the period 1958–2010, seabed temperatures are given by oceanographic measurements in the area, and for 2010–2100 by two temperature scenarios represented by the observed trends for the periods 1960–2010 (0.0034°C y−1) and 1980–2010 (0.023°C y−1). Our results show no hydrate-sourced methane emissions for an ocean warming rate at the seabed of 0.0034 °C y−1. For a rate of 0.023°C y−1, emissions start in 2028 at 375 mwd and extend to 442 mwd at an average rate of about 0.91 mwd y−1, releasing ca. 1.13×103 mol y−1 of methane per metre along the margin by 2100. These emissions originate from dissociation at the top of the hydrate layer, a physical process that steady-state modelling cannot represent. Our results are speculative on account of the lack of direct evidence of a shallow water hydrate reservoir, but they illustrate that the SSM is a key area to observe the effects of ocean warming-induced hydrate dissociation in the coming decades. Keywords: Hydrate; ocean warming; methane emissions; transient modelling; South Shetland Margin; Antarctic Peninsula.

The late twentieth century was marked by a significant summertime trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of tropospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH). This trend with poleward shifting tropospheric westerlies was attributed to downward propagation of stratospheric changes induced by ozone depletion. However, the role of the ocean in setting the SAM response to ozone depletion and its dynamical forcing remains unclear. Here we show, using idealized experiments with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model and analysis of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate simulations, that frontal sea surface temperature gradients in the midlatitude SH are critical for translating the ozone-induced stratospheric changes down to the surface. This happens through excitation of wave forcing, which controls the vertical connection of the tropospheric SAM with the stratosphere and shows the importance of internal tropospheric dynamics for stratosphere/troposphere coupling. Thus, improved simulation of oceanic fronts may reduce uncertainties in simulating SH ozone-induced climate changes.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.