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An object-based method for automatic iceberg detection has been applied to Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar images in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), Antarctica. The images were acquired between 1 January 2006 and 8 April 2012 under varying meteorological, oceanographic and sea-ice conditions. During this time period, the icebergs were counted (average 1370 ± 50) and their surface area was estimated (average 1537.5 km2). The average surface area was about 2.5 times larger than the annual calved area (620 km2), indicating that the average iceberg age in the ASE is about 2.5 years, which was confirmed by observed residence times based on drift tracks. Most of the ASE icebergs were less than 1500 m long, and almost 90% of them were smaller than 2 km2. The proportion of small- and medium-sized icebergs (84.4%) was significantly higher than in the open ocean, where large icebergs (>10 km2) account for nearly the whole iceberg surface area. The opposite was true for the freshly calved icebergs in the ASE. The data indicate that the creation of icebergs in the ASE is dominated by steady small- to medium-scale calving from ice shelves fringing the embayment. In addition, rare calving events of giant icebergs occur on a decadal timescale. There is also some import of icebergs from the Bellingshausen Sea further east along the coast, in particular after large calving events there.

Ice rises situated in the ice-shelf belt around Antarctica have a spatially confined flow regime with local ice divides. Beneath the divides, ice stratigraphy often develops arches with amplitudes that record the divide's horizontal residence time and surface elevation changes. To investigate the evolution of Derwael Ice Rise, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, we combine radar and GPS data from three consecutive surveys, with a two-dimensional, full Stokes, thermomechanically coupled, transient ice-flow model. We find that the surface mass balance (SMB) is higher on the upwind and lower on the downwind slopes. Near the crest, the SMB is anomalously low and causes arches to form in the shallow stratigraphy, observable by radar. In deeper ice, arches are consequently imprinted by both SMB and ice rheology (Raymond effect). The data show how arch amplitudes decrease as along-ridge slope increases, emphasizing that the lateral positioning of radar cross sections is important for the arch interpretation. Using the model with three rheologies (isotropic with n=3,4.5 and anisotropic with n=3), we show that Derwael Ice Rise is close to steady state but is best explained using ice anisotropy and moderate thinning. Our preferred, albeit not unique, scenario suggests that the ice divide has existed for at least 5000 years and lowered at approximately 0.03 m a−1 over the last 3400 years. Independent of the specific thinning scenario, our modeling suggests that Derwael Ice Rise has exhibited a local flow regime at least since the Mid-Holocene.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

The climate-driven collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves have opened up new regions of the coastal Antarctic to the influence of sea ice resulting in increases in seasonal primary production. In this study, passive microwave remote sensing of sea ice concentration and satellite imagery of ocean color are employed to quantify the magnitude of and variability in open water area and net primary productivity (NPP) in the Larsen embayments between 1997 and 2011. Numerical model output provides context to analyze atmospheric forcing on the coastal ocean. Following ice shelf disintegration the embayments function as coastal, sensible heat polynyas. The Larsen A and B are as productive as other Antarctic shelf regions, with seasonally averaged daily NPP rates reaching 1232 and 1127 mg C m−2 d−1 and annual rates reaching 200 and 184 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively. A persistent cross-shelf gradient in NPP is present with higher productivity rates offshore, contrasting with patterns observed along the West Antarctic Peninsula. Embayment productivity is intimately tied to sea ice dynamics, with large interannual variability in NPP rates driven by open water area and the timing of embayment opening. Opening of the embayment is linked to periods of positive Southern Annular Mode and stronger westerlies, which lead to the vertical deflection of warm, maritime air over the peninsula and down the leeward side causing increases in surface air temperature and wind velocity. High productivity in these new polynyas is likely to have ramifications for organic matter export and marine ecosystem evolution.

Clouds and the Earth's radiant energy system (CERES) is a satellite-based remote sensing system designed to monitor the Earth's radiation budget. In this paper we examine uncertainties in the angular distribution models (ADMs) used by CERES over permanently snow covered surfaces with clear skies. These ADMs are a key part of the CERES data processing algorithms, used to convert the observed upwelling radiance to an estimate of the upwelling hemispheric flux. We model top-of-atmosphere anisotropic reflectance factors using an atmospheric radiative transfer model with a lower boundary condition based on extensive reflectance observations made at Dome C, Antarctica. The model results and subsequent analysis show that the CERES operational clear-sky permanent-snow ADMs are appropriate for use over Dome C, with differences of less than 5% between the model results and the ADMs at most geometries used by CERES operationally. We show that the uncertainty introduced into the flux estimates through the use of the modeled radiances used in the ADM development is small when the fluxes are averaged over time and space. Finally, we show that variations in the angular distribution of radiance at the top of the atmosphere due to atmospheric variability over permanently snow covered regions are in most cases unlikely to mask the real variations in flux caused by these atmospheric variations.

Spectral albedo and bidirectional reflectance of snow were measured at Dome C on the East Antarctic Plateau for wavelengths of 350–2400 nm and solar zenith angles of 52°–87°. A parameterization of bidirectional reflectance, based on those measurements, is used as the lower boundary condition in the atmospheric radiation model SBDART to calculate radiance and flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). The model's atmospheric profile is based on radiosoundings at Dome C and ozonesoundings at the South Pole. Computed TOA radiances are integrated over wavelength for comparison with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) shortwave channel. CERES radiance observations and flux estimates from four clear days in January 2004 and January 2005 from within 200 km of Dome C are compared with the TOA radiances and fluxes computed for the same solar zenith angle and viewing geometry, providing 11,000 comparisons. The measured radiance and flux are lower than the computed values. The median difference is about 7% for CERES on Terra, and 9% on Aqua. Sources of uncertainty in the model and observations are examined in detail and suggest that the measured values should be less than the computed values, but only by 1.7% ± 4%. The source of the discrepancy of about 6% cannot be identified here; however, the modeled values do agree with observations from another satellite instrument (Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer), suggesting that the CERES calibration must be considered a possible source of the discrepancy.