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Surface layer and upper-air in situ observations from two research vessel cruises and an ice station in the Weddell Sea from 1992 and 1996 are used to validate four current atmospheric reanalysis products: ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-55, and MERRA-2. Three of the observation data sets were not available for assimilation, providing a rare opportunity to validate the reanalyses in the otherwise datasparse region of the Antarctic against independent data. All four reanalyses produce 2 m temperatures warmer than the observations, and the biases vary from +2.0 K in CFSR to +2.8 K in MERRA-2. All four reanalyses are generally too warm also higher up in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with biases up to +1.4 K (ERA-Interim). Cloud fractions are relatively poorly reproduced by the reanalyses, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 having the strongest positive and negative biases of about +30 % and −17 %, respectively. Skill scores of the error statistics reveal that ERA-Interim compares generally the most favorably against both the surface layer and the upper-air observations. CFSR compares the second best and JRA-55 and MERRA-2 have the least favorable scores. The ABL warm bias is consistent with previous evaluation studies in high latitudes, where more recent observations have been applied. As the amount of observations has varied depending on the decade, season, and region, the consistency of the warm bias suggests a need to improve the modeling systems, including data assimilation as well as ABL and surface parameterizations.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pCO2) varied on millennial timescales in phase with Antarctic temperature during the last glacial period. A prevailing view has been that carbon release and uptake by the Southern Ocean dominated this millennial-scale variability in pCO2. Here, using Earth System Model experiments with an improved parameterization of ocean vertical mixing, we find a major role for terrestrial and oceanic carbon releases in driving the pCO2 trend. In our simulations, a change in Northern Hemisphere insolation weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leading to increasing pCO2 and Antarctic temperatures. The simulated rise in pCO2 is caused in equal parts by increased CO2 outgassing from the global ocean due to a reduced biological activity and changed ventilation rates, and terrestrial carbon release as a response to southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The simulated terrestrial release of carbon could explain stadial declines in organic carbon reservoirs observed in recent ice core δ13C measurements. Our results show that parallel variations in Antarctic temperature and pCO2 do not necessitate that the Southern Ocean dominates carbon exchange; instead, changes in carbon flux from the global ocean and land carbon reservoirs can explain the observed pCO2 (and δ13C) changes.

Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.

The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China. This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983–2015. The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO, failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO, with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index (AAOI). Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals, we firstly establish a dynamical–statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI (DY AAOI), with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice. This dynamical–statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983–2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation. Then, we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI. The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coefficient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983–2015. Moreover, the unrealistic atmospheric response to March–April–May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO. This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction.

A likely important feature of the poorly understood aerosol-cloud interactions over the Southern Ocean (SO) is the dominant role of sea spray aerosol, versus terrestrial aerosol. Ice nucleating particles (INPs), or particles required for heterogeneous ice nucleation, present over the SO have not been studied in several decades. In this study, boundary layer aerosol properties and immersion freezing INP number concentrations (nINPs) were measured during a ship campaign that occurred south of Australia (down to 53°S) in March–April 2016. Ocean surface chlorophyll a concentrations ranged from 0.11 to 1.77 mg/m3, and nINPs were a factor of 100 lower than historical surveys, ranging from 0.38 to 4.6 m−3 at −20 °C. The INP population included organic heat-stable material, with contributions from heat-labile material. Lower INP source potentials of SO seawater samples compared to Arctic seawater were consistent with lower ice nucleating site densities in this study compared to north Atlantic air masses.

During the 35th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were carried out using a Li-Cor CO 2 /H 2 O analyser at Bharati, the Indian Antarctic research station. This study examines the short-term variability of atmospheric CO 2 during the austral summer (January–February) of 2016. An average of 396.25 ± 4.20 ppm was observed during the study period. Meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and atmospheric boundary layer height in conjunction with photosynthetically active radiation, the biological activity indicator which modulates atmospheric CO 2 concentration have been investigated. High wind speed (>20 m s −1 ) combined with precipitation scavenges CO 2 in the atmosphere, resulting in low concentrations at the study site. The lowest CO 2 concentration of 385 ppm coincided with heavy precipitation of 15 mm during study period. Statistical analysis of the data shows that precipitation and relative humidity independently correlated 55% (r = −0.55) and 32% (r = −0.32), respectively, with the variability of CO 2 mixing in the atmosphere at the study site. Atmospheric CO 2 was significantly correlated with precipitation alone with a p value of 0.003. Further, multiple regression analysis was performed to test the significant relation between variability of atmospheric CO 2 and meteorological parameters. Long-range air-mass transport analysis depicted that the majority of the air masses are reaching the study site through the oceanic region.

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) affect the chemistry and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Major warmings occur roughly every second winter in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), but has only been observed once in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), during the Antarctic winter of 2002. Observations by the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS, an instrument on board Envisat) during this rare event, show a 40% increase of ozone in the nighttime secondary ozone layer at subpolar latitudes compared to non-SSW years. This study investigates the cause of the mesospheric nighttime ozone increase, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM). The 2002 SH winter was characterized by several reductions of the strength of the polar night jet in the upper stratosphere before the jet reversed completely, marking the onset of the major SSW. At the time of these wind reductions, corresponding episodic increases can be seen in the modelled nighttime secondary ozone layer. This ozone increase is attributed largely to enhanced upwelling and the associated cooling of the altitude region in conjunction with the wind reversal. This is in correspondence to similar studies of SSW induced ozone enhancements in NH. But unlike its NH counterpart, the SH secondary ozone layer appeared to be impacted less by episodic variations in atomic hydrogen. Seasonally decreasing atomic hydrogen plays however a larger role in SH compared to NH.

In the first multiyear sampling effort for POPs in the eastern Antarctic atmosphere, 32 PCBs and 38 organochlorine pesticides were targeted in air collected with a high-flow-through passive sampler. Agricultural chemicals were found to dominate atmospheric profiles, in particular HCB and endosulfan-I, with average concentrations of 12 600 and 550 fg/m3, respectively. HCB showed higher concentrations in the austral summer, indicative of local, temperature-dependent volatilisation, while endosulfan-I appeared to show fresh, late-austral-summer input followed by temporally decreasing levels throughout the year. The current-use herbicide, trifluralin, and the legacy pesticides mirex and toxaphene, were detected in Antarctic air for the first time. Trifluralin was observed at low but increasing levels over the five-year period. Its detection in the Antarctic atmosphere provides evidence of its persistence and long-range environmental transport capability. While a time frame of five years exceeds the duration of most Antarctic air monitoring efforts, it is projected that continuous monitoring at the decadal scale is required to detect an annual 10% change in atmospheric concentrations of key analytes. This finding emphasizes the importance of continuous, long-term monitoring efforts in polar regions, that serve a special role as sentinel environments of hemispheric chemical usage trends.

While the number of surface ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) measurements has soared the recent decades, the Southern Ocean remains undersampled. Williams et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005541) now present pCO2 estimates based on data from pH-sensor equipped Bio-Argo floats, which have been measuring in the Southern Ocean since 2014. The authors demonstrate the utility of these data for understanding the carbon cycle in this region, which has a large influence on the distribution of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Biogeochemical sensors deployed on autonomous platforms hold the potential to shape our view of the ocean carbon cycle in the coming decades.

Motivated by recent event studies and modeling efforts on pulsating aurora, which conclude that the precipitation energy during these events is high enough to cause significant chemical changes in the mesosphere, this study looks for the bulk behavior of auroral pulsations. Based on about 400 pulsating aurora events, we outline the typical duration, geomagnetic conditions, and change in the peak emission height for the events. We show that the auroral peak emission height for both green and blue emission decreases by about 8 km at the start of the pulsating aurora interval. This brings the hardest 10% of the electrons down to about 90 km altitude. The median duration of pulsating aurora is about 1.4 h. This value is a conservative estimate since in many cases the end of event is limited by the end of auroral imaging for the night or the aurora drifting out of the camera field of view. The longest durations of auroral pulsations are observed during events which start within the substorm recovery phases. As a result, the geomagnetic indices are not able to describe pulsating aurora. Simultaneous Antarctic auroral images were found for 10 pulsating aurora events. In eight cases auroral pulsations were seen in the southern hemispheric data as well, suggesting an equatorial precipitation source and a frequent interhemispheric occurrence. The long lifetimes of pulsating aurora, their interhemispheric occurrence, and the relatively high-precipitation energies make this type of aurora an effective energy deposition process which is easy to identify from the ground-based image data.

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100.

The mid-Piacenzian (~3 Ma) represents the most recent warm period in Earth's history on a geological time scale; it is characterized by a significant rise of global sea level. The simulation of the size and location of the ice sheets and the investigation of the uncertainty in the simulations are potentially helpful for constraining reconstructed sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) in the mid-Piacenzian. We investigate the influence of topography correction, model parameters, climate forcings, and model resolution on the modeled AIS and explore the isolated role of atmospheric and oceanic forcings. Forced by the simulated climate changes with the Norwegian Earth System Model, the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (15 km × 15 km) produces a nearly collapsed West AIS (WAIS) in the mid-Piacenzian, with no significant retreat of the East AIS (EAIS). The role of increased air temperature plays a key role in the mass loss of the mid-Piacenzian AIS, while its role is comparable to the role of ocean warming on the melting of the WAIS. In terms of the range of sea level changes, the largest source of uncertainty in the modeled AIS is derived from ice sheet model parameters and climate forcings. Although the employed model parameters, topography correction factors, and model resolution affect the simulated AIS in the mid-Piacenzian, large-scale deglaciation of the EAIS in our sensitivity experiments may only be possible with additional warming.

To assess published hypotheses surrounding the recent slowdown in surface warming (hiatus), we compare five available global observational surface temperature estimates to two 30-member ensembles from the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Model ensembles are initialized in 1980 from the transient historical runs and driven with forcings used in the CMIP5 experiments and updated forcings based upon current observational understanding, described in Part 1. The ensembles' surface temperature trends are statistically indistinguishable over 1998–2012 despite differences in the prescribed forcings. There is thus no evidence that forcing errors play a significant role in explaining the hiatus according to NorESM. The observations fall either toward the lower portion of the ensembles or, for some observational estimates and regions, outside. The exception is the Arctic where the observations fall toward the upper ensemble bounds. Observational data set choices can make a large difference to findings of consistency or otherwise. Those NorESM ensemble members that exhibit Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends similar to observed also exhibit comparable tropical and to some extent global mean trends, supporting a role for El Nino Southern Oscillation in explaining the hiatus. Several ensemble members capture the marked seasonality observed in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude trends, with cooling in the wintertime and warming in the remaining seasons. Overall, we find that we cannot falsify NorESM as being capable of explaining the observed hiatus behavior. Importantly, this is not equivalent to concluding NorESM could simultaneously capture all important facets of the hiatus. Similar experiments with further, distinct, Earth System Models are required to verify our findings.

We report in situ atmospheric measurements of hydrofluorocarbon HFC-43-10mee (C5H2F10; 1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,5,5-decafluoropentane) from seven observatories at various latitudes, together with measurements of archived air samples and recent Antarctic flask air samples. The global mean tropospheric abundance was 0.21 ± 0.05 ppt (parts per trillion, dry air mole fraction) in 2012, rising from 0.04 ± 0.03 ppt in 2000. We combine the measurements with a model and an inverse method to estimate rising global emissions—from 0.43 ± 0.34 Gg yr−1 in 2000 to 1.13 ± 0.31 Gg yr−1 in 2012 (~1.9 Tg CO2-eq yr−1 based on a 100 year global warming potential of 1660). HFC-43-10mee—a cleaning solvent used in the electronics industry—is currently a minor contributor to global radiative forcing relative to total HFCs; however, our calculated emissions highlight a significant difference from the available reported figures and projected estimates.

This article investigates the annual cycle observed in the Antarctic baseline aerosol scattering coefficient, total particle number concentration, and particle number size distribution (PNSD), as measured at Troll Atmospheric Observatory. Mie theory shows that the annual cycles in microphysical and optical aerosol properties have a common cause. By comparison with observations at other Antarctic stations, it is shown that the annual cycle is not a local phenomenon, but common to central Antarctic baseline air masses. Observations of ground-level ozone at Troll as well as backward plume calculations for the air masses arriving at Troll demonstrate that the baseline air masses originate from the free troposphere and lower stratosphere region, and descend over the central Antarctic continent. The Antarctic summer PNSD is dominated by particles with diameters <100 nm recently formed from the gas-phase despite the absence of external sources of condensible gases. The total particle volume in Antarctic baseline aerosol is linearly correlated with the integral insolation the aerosol received on its transport pathway, and the photooxidative production of particle volume is mostly limited by photooxidative capacity, not availability of aerosol precursor gases. The photooxidative particle volume formation rate in central Antarctic baseline air is quantified to 207 ±4 μm3/(MJ m). Further research is proposed to investigate the applicability of this number to other atmospheric reservoirs, and to use the observed annual cycle in Antarctic baseline aerosol properties as a benchmark for the representation of natural atmospheric aerosol processes in climate models.

An ongoing challenge in attributing anthropogenic climate change is to distinguish anthropogenic and natural changes of atmospheric composition, e.g. concerning atmospheric aerosol and its climate effects. Aerosol properties measured at pristine locations, to the extend they still exist, can serve as a climate model benchmark for verifying the representation of natural aerosol processes in the model.

The effects of nunataks on temperature profiles and wind patterns are studied using simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Simulations are compared to hourly observations from an automatic weather station located at the Troll Research Station in Dronning Maud Land. Areas of bare ground have been implemented in the model, and the simulations correspond well with meteorological measurements acquired during the 4 day simulation period. The nunataks are radiatively heated during daytime, and free convection occurs in the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. The inflow below the updraft forces strong horizontal convergence at the surface, whereas weaker divergence appears aloft. In a control run with a completely ice-covered surface, the convection is absent. In situ observations carried out by a remotely controlled balloon and a small model airplane compare well with model temperature profiles, but these are only available over the ice field upwind to the nunatak.

Antarctic sea ice areas have only been the main focus for a few studies combining observations and three-dimensional atmospheric model experiments. This study presents simulations over the Weddell Sea in early summer, applying the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF). The results are compared against observations from the drifting experiment Ice Station Polarstern, which took place on 28 November 2004?2 January 2005. The Polar WRF model showed good skill in simulating synoptic-scale variations. The diurnal cycles of surface variables were reproduced, but the amplitude was overestimated for most of the variables and the simulations were characterized by a cold temperature bias at night. The major challenges related to the modelling of the atmosphere over Antarctic sea ice were found to be associated with clouds, atmospheric boundary-layer processes and processes in the sea ice and snow layer. Temporal variations in the errors in cloud cover generated large errors in long-wave radiation fluxes. In the boundary layer, the overestimated downward sensible heat flux was partly compensated for by the underestimated downward long-wave radiation at the surface. The underestimated downward long-wave flux started to dominate as the stability increased and generated the cold temperature bias at the surface. Problems with the surface energy balance, as found in this study, could be reduced by applying more advanced schemes for snow and ice thermodynamics.

A first long-term monitoring of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Antarctic air has been conducted at the Norwegian research station Troll (Dronning Maud Land). As target contaminants 32 PCB congeners, α- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), trans- and cis-chlordane, trans- and cis-nonachlor, p,p'- and o,p-DDT, DDD, DDE as well as hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were selected. The monitoring program with weekly samples taken during the period 2007–2010 was coordinated with the parallel program at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring site (Zeppelin mountain, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard) in terms of priority compounds, sampling schedule as well as analytical methods. The POP concentration levels found in Antarctica were considerably lower than Arctic atmospheric background concentrations. Similar to observations for Arctic samples, HCB is the predominant POP compound, with levels of around 22 pg m−3 throughout the entire monitoring period. In general, the following concentration distribution was found for the Troll samples analyzed: HCB > Sum HCH > Sum PCB > Sum DDT > Sum chlordanes. Atmospheric long-range transport was identified as a major contamination source for POPs in Antarctic environments. Several long-range transport events with elevated levels of pesticides and/or compounds with industrial sources were identified based on retroplume calculations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART).

We report ground-based measurements of the polar middle atmosphere made using a 230–250 GHz passive microwave radiometer deployed at Troll station (72°01′S 02°32′E, L shell of L = 4.8), Antarctica. Our observations show enhanced mesospheric nitric oxide (NO) volume mixing ratio (VMR) during a series of small recurrent geomagnetic storms in the 2008 austral winter, reaching 1.2 ppmv on day 200 (18 July). The Lomb normalized periodogram of the NO VMR time series averaged over 65-80 km for days 130 to 220 of 2008 (9 May to 7 August) shows a peak exceeding the 95% confidence limit at 25.8 days, close to the synodic rotation period for low-latitude solar coronal holes. The highest correlations between the radiometer NO VMR data and trapped and quasi-trapped electron count rates for L = 3.5-5.5 from the Polar Orbiting Environment Satellites 90° telescope are for the >30 keV (90e1) channel (rmax = 0.56, lag time of 5.1 days) and >100 keV (90e2) channel (rmax = 0.57, lag time of 4.4 days). Maximum correlation between NO VMR and the >700 keV (90P6) channel data is lower but lag times are close to zero. Superposed epoch analyses for the eight most significant geomagnetic storm periods and three Carrington rotations (2070-2072) within the 90 day observation period indicate that significant NO abundance observed at 65-80 km in the Antarctic mesosphere may be produced directly by >200 keV electron precipitation or originate from a source at higher altitudes, e.g., production by >30 keV electrons followed by downward transport.