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An urgent necessity to understand the effect of climatic change on scleractinian cold-water coral (CWC) ecosystems has arisen due to increasing ocean warming and acidification over the last decades. Here, presence-absence records of 12 scleractinian CWC species from research expeditions and the literature were compiled and merged with model-generated pseudo-absence data and 14 environmental variables. The best-fitting results of 9 species distribution models (SDMs) were combined to an ensemble habitat suitability model for CWCs in the northern Southern Ocean (Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula) by means of the open-source R package "biomod2". Furthermore, 2 future scenarios of increasing bottom sea temperature were used to investigate the spatial response of scleractinians to temperature change. The resulting (current scenario) potential ecological niches were evaluated with good to excellent statistical measures. The results predict that present areas of highest probability of CWC occurrence are around the Antarctic Peninsula, South Orkney Islands and Queen Maud Land, with preference to geomorphic features such as seamounts. The distribution of CWC habitats is mainly driven by distance to coast and ice shelves, bathymetry, benthic calcium carbonate, and temperature. Under warming conditions, CWCs are predicted to expand their distribution range by 6 and 10% in 2037 and 2150, respectively, compared to the present distribution. The future models using increased bottom temperature revealed a stable CWC distribution for most parts of the study area. However, habitat shifts are expected to the Filchner Trough region, the adjacent continental shelves, as well as to the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula. KEYWORDS: Scleractinian coral · Ensemble models · Environmental change · Habitat suitability model · Spatial distribution · Weddell Sea. Antarctica

Surface layer and upper-air in situ observations from two research vessel cruises and an ice station in the Weddell Sea from 1992 and 1996 are used to validate four current atmospheric reanalysis products: ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-55, and MERRA-2. Three of the observation data sets were not available for assimilation, providing a rare opportunity to validate the reanalyses in the otherwise datasparse region of the Antarctic against independent data. All four reanalyses produce 2 m temperatures warmer than the observations, and the biases vary from +2.0 K in CFSR to +2.8 K in MERRA-2. All four reanalyses are generally too warm also higher up in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with biases up to +1.4 K (ERA-Interim). Cloud fractions are relatively poorly reproduced by the reanalyses, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 having the strongest positive and negative biases of about +30 % and −17 %, respectively. Skill scores of the error statistics reveal that ERA-Interim compares generally the most favorably against both the surface layer and the upper-air observations. CFSR compares the second best and JRA-55 and MERRA-2 have the least favorable scores. The ABL warm bias is consistent with previous evaluation studies in high latitudes, where more recent observations have been applied. As the amount of observations has varied depending on the decade, season, and region, the consistency of the warm bias suggests a need to improve the modeling systems, including data assimilation as well as ABL and surface parameterizations.

The Weddell Gyre (WG) is one of the main oceanographic features of the Southern Ocean south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current which plays an influential role in global ocean circulation as well as gas exchange with the atmosphere. We review the state-of-the art knowledge concerning the WG from an interdisciplinary perspective, uncovering critical aspects needed to understand this system's role in shaping the future evolution of oceanic heat and carbon uptake over the next decades. The main limitations in our knowledge are related to the conditions in this extreme and remote environment, where the polar night, very low air temperatures, and presence of sea ice year-round hamper field and remotely sensed measurements. We highlight the importance of winter and under-ice conditions in the southern WG, the role that new technology will play to overcome present-day sampling limitations, the importance of the WG connectivity to the low-latitude oceans and atmosphere, and the expected intensification of the WG circulation as the westerly winds intensify. Greater international cooperation is needed to define key sampling locations that can be visited by any research vessel in the region. Existing transects sampled since the 1980s along the Prime Meridian and along an East-West section at ~62°S should be maintained with regularity to provide answers to the relevant questions. This approach will provide long-term data to determine trends and will improve representation of processes for regional, Antarctic-wide, and global modeling efforts—thereby enhancing predictions of the WG in global ocean circulation and climate.

A climatically induced acceleration in ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves would have consequences for both the discharge of continental ice into the ocean and thus global sea level, and for the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and the oceanic meridional overturning circulation. Using a novel gas-tight in situ water sampler, noble gas samples have been collected from six locations beneath the Filchner Ice Shelf, the first such samples from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. Helium and neon are uniquely suited as tracers of glacial meltwater in the ocean. Basal meltwater fractions range from 3.6% near the ice shelf base to 0.5% near the sea floor, with distinct regional differences. We estimate an average basal melt rate for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf of 177 ± 95 Gt/year, independently confirming previous results. We calculate that up to 2.7% of the meltwater has been refrozen, and we identify a local source of crustal helium.

An idealized eddy-resolving numerical model, with topographic features common to the southern Weddell Sea, is constructed to study mechanisms through which warm deep water enters a wide continental shelf with a trough. The open ocean, represented by a 1700 m deep channel, is connected to a 400 m deep shelf with a continental slope. The shelf is narrow (50 km) in the east but widens to 300 km at the center of the model domain. Over the narrow shelf, the slope front is balanced by wind-driven Ekman downwelling and counteracting eddy overturning, favoring on-shelf transport of warm water in summer scenarios when fresher surface water is present. Over the wide shelf, the Ekman downwelling ceases, and the mesoscale eddies relax the front. Inflow of warm water is sensitive to along-shelf salinity gradients and is most efficient when denser water over the wide shelf favors up-slope eddy transport along isopycnals of the V-shaped slope front. Inflow along the eastern side of the trough cannot penetrate the sill region due to potential vorticity constraints, while along the western trough flank, eddy-induced inflow crosses the sill and reaches the ice front. The warm inflow into the trough is sensitive to the density of the outflowing dense shelf water. For weaker winds, absence of the dense water outflow leads to a reversal of the trough circulation and a strong inflow of warm water, while for stronger winds, baroclinic effects become less important and the inflow is similar to experiments including dense water outflow.

In polar seas, the seasonal melting of ice triggers the development of an open-waterecosystem characterized by short-lived algal blooms, the grazing and development of zooplank-ton, and the influx of avian and mammalian predators. Spatial heterogeneity in the timing of icemelt generates temporal variability in the development of these events across the habitat, offeringa natural framework to assess how foraging marine predators respond to the spring phenology.We combined 4 yr of tracking data of Antarctic petrels Thalassoica antarcticawith synopticremote-sensing data on sea ice and chlorophyll ato test how the development of melting ice andprimary production drive Antarctic petrel foraging. Cross-correlation analyses of first-passagetime revealed that Antarctic petrels utilized foraging areas with a spatial scale of 300 km. Theseareas changed position or disappeared within 10 to 30 d and showed no spatial consistency amongyears. Generalized additive model (GAM) analyses suggested that the presence of foraging areaswas related to the time since ice melt. Antarctic petrels concentrated their search effort in meltingareas and in areas that had reached an age of 50 to 60 d from the date of ice melt. We found nosignificant relationship between search effort and chlorophyll aconcentration. We suggest thatthese foraging patterns were related to the vertical distribution and profitability of the main prey,the Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. Our study demonstrates that the annual ice melt in theSouthern Ocean shapes the development of a highly patchy and elusive food web, underscoringthe importance of flexible foraging strategies among top predators. KEY WORDS: Area-restricted search · Euphausia superba· Marginal ice zone · Phytoplanktonbiomass · Procellariiformes · Sea ice dynamics · Southern Ocean · Thalassoica antarctica

Turbulence profile measurements made on the upper continental slope and shelf of the southeastern Weddell Sea reveal striking contrasts in dissipation and mixing rates between the two sites. The mean profiles of dissipation rates from the upper slope are 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than the profiles collected over the shelf in the entire water column. The difference increases toward the bottom where the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy and the vertical eddy diffusivity on the slope exceed 10−7 W kg−1 and 10−2 m2 s−1, respectively. Elevated levels of turbulence on the slope are concentrated within a 100 m thick bottom layer, which is absent on the shelf. The upper slope is characterized by near-critical slopes and is in close proximity to the critical latitude for semidiurnal internal tides. Our observations suggest that the upper continental slope of the southern Weddell Sea is a generation site of semidiurnal internal tide, which is trapped along the slope along the critical latitude, and dissipates its energy in a 100 m thick layer near the bottom and within 10 km across the slope.

The main aim of this paper is to explore the potential of combining measurements from fixed- and rotary-wing remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) to complement data sets from radio soundings as well as ship and sea-ice-based instrumentation for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) profiling. This study represents a proof-of-concept of RPAS observations in the Antarctic sea-ice zone. We present first results from the RV Polarstern Antarctic winter expedition in the Weddell Sea in June–August 2013, during which three RPAS were operated to measure temperature, humidity and wind; a fixed-wing small unmanned meteorological observer (SUMO), a fixed-wing meteorological mini-aerial vehicle, and an advanced mission and operation research quadcopter. A total of 86 RPAS flights showed a strongly varying ABL structure ranging from slightly unstable temperature stratification near the surface to conditions with strong surface-based temperature inversions. The RPAS observations supplement the regular upper air soundings and standard meteorological measurements made during the campaign. The SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles agree very well and, excluding cases with strong temperature inversions, 70% of the variance in the difference between the SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles can be explained by natural, temporal, temperature fluctuations. Strong temperature inversions cause the largest differences, which are induced by SUMO’s high climb rates and slow sensor response. Under such conditions, the quadcopter, with its slower climb rate and faster sensor, is very useful in obtaining accurate temperature profiles in the lowest 100 m above the sea ice. Keywords: Remotely piloted aircraft systems; unmanned aerial vehicles; Weddell Sea; polar meteorology; Antarctic; boundary layer meteorology.

The Weddell Sea sector is one of the main formation sites for Antarctic Bottom Water and an outlet for about one fifth of Antarctica's continental ice volume. Over the last few decades, studies on glacial–geological records in this sector have provided conflicting reconstructions of changes in ice-sheet extent and ice-sheet thickness since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM at ca 23–19 calibrated kiloyears before present, cal ka BP). Terrestrial geomorphological records and exposure ages obtained from rocks in the hinterland of the Weddell Sea, ice-sheet thickness constraints from ice cores and some radiocarbon dates on offshore sediments were interpreted to indicate no significant ice thickening and locally restricted grounding-line advance at the LGM. Other marine geological and geophysical studies concluded that subglacial bedforms mapped on the Weddell Sea continental shelf, subglacial deposits and sediments over-compacted by overriding ice recovered in cores, and the few available radiocarbon ages from marine sediments are consistent with major ice-sheet advance at the LGM. Reflecting the geological interpretations, different ice-sheet models have reconstructed conflicting LGM ice-sheet configurations for the Weddell Sea sector. Consequently, the estimated contributions of ice-sheet build-up in the Weddell Sea sector to the LGM sea-level low-stand of ∼130 m vary considerably. In this paper, we summarise and review the geological records of past ice-sheet margins and past ice-sheet elevations in the Weddell Sea sector. We compile marine and terrestrial chronological data constraining former ice-sheet size, thereby highlighting different levels of certainty, and present two alternative scenarios of the LGM ice-sheet configuration, including time-slice reconstructions for post-LGM grounding-line retreat. Moreover, we discuss consistencies and possible reasons for inconsistencies between the various reconstructions and propose objectives for future research. The aim of our study is to provide two alternative interpretations of glacial–geological datasets on Antarctic Ice-Sheet History for the Weddell Sea sector, which can be utilised to test and improve numerical ice-sheet models.

Antarctic sea ice areas have only been the main focus for a few studies combining observations and three-dimensional atmospheric model experiments. This study presents simulations over the Weddell Sea in early summer, applying the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF). The results are compared against observations from the drifting experiment Ice Station Polarstern, which took place on 28 November 2004?2 January 2005. The Polar WRF model showed good skill in simulating synoptic-scale variations. The diurnal cycles of surface variables were reproduced, but the amplitude was overestimated for most of the variables and the simulations were characterized by a cold temperature bias at night. The major challenges related to the modelling of the atmosphere over Antarctic sea ice were found to be associated with clouds, atmospheric boundary-layer processes and processes in the sea ice and snow layer. Temporal variations in the errors in cloud cover generated large errors in long-wave radiation fluxes. In the boundary layer, the overestimated downward sensible heat flux was partly compensated for by the underestimated downward long-wave radiation at the surface. The underestimated downward long-wave flux started to dominate as the stability increased and generated the cold temperature bias at the surface. Problems with the surface energy balance, as found in this study, could be reduced by applying more advanced schemes for snow and ice thermodynamics.

Abstract Solar heated, fresh Antarctic Surface Water (ASW) is a permanent feature along the Eastern Weddell Sea (EWS) coast in summer down to a depth of roughly 200 m. Recently, ASW has been observed beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf, suggesting that it might play an important role in basal melting. We propose that wind-driven coastal downwelling is the main mechanism that spreads ASW beneath the ice shelf in this sector of Antarctica. We validate this hypothesis with observations, scaling analyses, and numerical modeling, along three principle lines: (i) data analyses of about 1500 salinity profiles collected by instrumented seals indicate that the observed freshening of the coastal water column is likely explained by the on-shore Ekman transport and subsequent downwelling of ASW; (ii) an analytical model of the coastal momentum balance indicates that wind-driven downwelling is capable of depressing the buoyant surface water to a depth similar to the ice shelf draft; and (iii) simulations from both idealized and regional eddy-resolving numerical ice shelf/ocean models support our proposition. Our main conclusion is that wind-driven spreading of ASW beneath the ice shelf occurs when downwelling exceeds the depth of the ice shelf base. Furthermore, our study adds to the understanding of the oceanic processes at the Antarctic Slope Front in the EWS, with possible implications for other sectors of Antarctica.