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Abstract Observed Antarctic sea ice trends up to 2015 have a distinct regional and seasonal pattern, with a loss during austral summer and autumn in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and a year-round increase in the Ross Sea. Global climate models generally failed to reproduce the magnitude of sea ice trends implying that the models miss relevant mechanisms. One possible mechanism is basal meltwater, which is generally not included in the current generation of climate models. Previous work on the effects of meltwater on sea ice has focused on thermodynamic processes. However, local freshening also leads to dynamic changes, affecting ocean currents through geostrophic balance. Using a coupled ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf model, we demonstrate that basal melting can intensify coastal currents in West Antarctica and the westward transport of sea ice. This change in transport results in sea ice anomalies consistent with observations, and may explain the disparity between climate models and observations.

From the Eocene (?50 million years ago) to today, Southern Ocean circulation has evolved from the existence of two ocean gyres to the dominance of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It has generally been thought that the opening of Southern Ocean gateways in the late Eocene, in addition to the alignment of westerly winds with these gateways or the presence of the Antarctic ice sheet, was a sufficient requirement for the transition to an ACC of similar strength to its modern equivalent. Nevertheless, models representing these changes produce a much weaker ACC. Here we show, using an eddying ocean model, that the missing ingredient in the transition to a modern ACC is deep convection around the Antarctic continent. This deep convection is caused by cold temperatures and high salinities due to sea-ice production around the Antarctic continent, leading to both the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and a modern-strength ACC.

Antarctic sea ice plays an important role in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and mediating Earth's climate system. Yet our understanding of biogeochemical cycling in sea ice is limited by the availability of relevant data over sufficient temporal and spatial scales. Here we present a new publicly available compilation of macronutrient concentration data from Antarctic land-fast sea ice, covering the full seasonal cycle using datasets from around Antarctica, as well as a smaller dataset of macronutrient concentrations in adjacent seawater. We show a strong seasonal cycle whereby nutrient concentrations are high during autumn and winter, due to supply from underlying surface waters, and then are utilised in spring and summer by mixed ice algal communities consisting of diatoms and non-siliceous species. Our data indicate some degree of nutrient limitation of ice algal primary production, with silicon limitation likely being most prevalent, although uncertainties remain around the affinities of sea-ice algae for each nutrient. Remineralisation of organic matter and nutrient recycling drive substantial accumulations of inorganic nitrogen, phosphate and to a lesser extent silicic acid in some ice cores to concentrations far in excess of those in surface waters. Nutrient supply to fast ice is enhanced by brine convection, platelet ice accumulation and incorporation into the ice matrix, and under-ice tidal currents, whilst nutrient adsorption to sea-ice surfaces, formation of biofilms, and abiotic mineral precipitation and dissolution can also influence fast-ice nutrient cycling. Concentrations of nitrate, ammonium and silicic acid were generally higher in fast ice than reported for Antarctic pack ice, and this may support the typically observed higher algal biomass in fast-ice environments.

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and Ice krill (Euphausia crystallorophias) are key species within Southern Ocean marine ecosystems. Given their importance in regional food webs, coupled with the uncertain impacts of climate change, the on-going recovery of krill-eating marine mammals, and the expanding commercial fishery for Antarctic krill, there is an increasing need to improve current estimates of their circumpolar habitat distribution. Here, we provide an estimate of the austral summer circumpolar habitat distribution of both species using an ensemble of habitat models and updated environmental covariates. Our models were able to resolve the segregated habitats of both species. We find that extensive potential habitat for Antarctic krill is mainly situated in the open ocean and concentrated in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, while Ice krill habitat was concentrated more evenly around the continent, largely over the continental shelf. Ice krill habitat was mainly predicted by surface oxygen concentration and water column temperature, while Antarctic krill was additionally characterized by mixed layer depth, distance to the continental shelf edge, and surface salinity. Our results further improve understanding about these key species, helping inform sustainable circumpolar management practices.

The paper analyses the economic and political history of the Ross Sea, where exploration, science, commercial exploitation, politics and adventure became highly interlinked and interwoven. Expedition accounts and the extensive literature on Antarctic history and politics inform the contextual aspects. The archives of the Norwegian whaling company A/S Rosshavet, established in 1923, and the United States of America and New Zealand archival material from the 1950s are key sources. From the first whaling season onwards, the impact of Antarctic whaling, and later scientific bases, highlights and illustrates the tensions between Antarctic commerce, territorial claims and international politics.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is pivotal for oceanic heat and carbon sequestrations on multidecadal to millennial timescales. The Weddell Sea contributes nearly a half of global AABW through Weddell Sea Deep Water and denser underlying Weddell Sea Bottom Water that form on the continental shelves via sea-ice production. Here we report an observed 30% reduction of Weddell Sea Bottom Water volume since 1992, with the largest decrease in the densest classes. This is probably driven by a multidecadal reduction in dense-water production over southern continental shelf associated with a >40% decline in the sea-ice formation rate. The ice production decrease is driven by northerly wind trend, related to a phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation since the early 1990s, superposed by Amundsen Sea Low intrinsic variability. These results reveal key influences on exported AABW to the Atlantic abyss and their sensitivity to large-scale, multidecadal climate variability.

Summary Global production and emission of chemicals exceeds societal capacities for assessment and monitoring. This situation calls for improved chemical regulatory policy frameworks and increased support for expedited decision making within existing frameworks. The polar regions of the Earth represent unique sentinel areas for the study of global chemical behaviour, and data arising from these areas can strengthen existing policy frameworks. However, chemical pollution research and monitoring in the Antarctic is underdeveloped, with geopolitical complexities and the absence of legal recognition of international chemical policy serving to neutralise progress made in other global regions. This Personal View represents a horizon scan by the action group Input Pathways of Persistent Organic Pollutants to Antarctica, of the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research. Four priority research and research facilitation gaps are outlined, with recommendations for Antarctica Treaty parties for strategic action against these priorities.

The Southern Ocean is a major sink of anthropogenic CO2 and an important foraging area for top trophic level consumers. However, iron limitation sets an upper limit to primary productivity. Here we report on a considerably dense late summer phytoplankton bloom spanning 9000 km2 in the open ocean of the eastern Weddell Gyre. Over its 2.5 months duration, the bloom accumulated up to 20 g C m−2 of organic matter, which is unusually high for Southern Ocean open waters. We show that, over 1997–2019, this open ocean bloom was likely driven by anomalies in easterly winds that push sea ice southwards and favor the upwelling of Warm Deep Water enriched in hydrothermal iron and, possibly, other iron sources. This recurring open ocean bloom likely facilitates enhanced carbon export and sustains high standing stocks of Antarctic krill, supporting feeding hot spots for marine birds and baleen whales.

The transport of oceanic heat towards the Antarctic continental margin is central to the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent modeling efforts challenge our view on where and how the on-shelf heat flux occurs, suggesting that it is largest where dense shelf waters cascade down the continental slope. Here we provide observational evidence supporting this claim. Using records from moored instruments, we link the downslope flow of dense water from the Filchner overflow to upslope and on-shelf flow of warm water.

Sea ice forms a barrier to the exchange of energy, gases, moisture and particles between the ocean and atmosphere around Antarctica. Ice temperature, salinity and the composition of ice crystals determine whether a particular slab of sea ice is habitable for microorganisms and permeable to exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere, allowing, for example, carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere to be absorbed or outgassed by the ocean. Spring sea ice can have high concentrations of algae and absorb atmospheric CO2. In the summer of 2016?2017 off East Antarctica, we found decayed and porous granular ice layers in the interior of the ice column, which showed high algal pigment concentrations. The maximum chlorophyll a observed in the interior of the ice column was 67.7 ?g/L in a 24% porous granular ice layer between 0.8 and 0.9 m depth in 1.7 m thick ice, compared to an overall mean sea-ice chlorophyll a (± one standard deviation) of 13.5 ± 21.8 ?g/L. We also found extensive surface melting, with instances of snow meltwater apparently percolating through the ice, as well as impermeable superimposed ice layers that had refrozen along with melt ponds on top of the ice. With future warming, the structures we describe here could occur earlier and/or become more persistent, meaning that sea ice would be more often characterized by patchy permeability and interior ice algal accumulations.

Numerous novel adaptations characterise the radiation of notothenioids, the dominant fish group in the freezing seas of the Southern Ocean. To improve understanding of the evolution of this iconic fish group, here we generate and analyse new genome assemblies for 24 species covering all major subgroups of the radiation, including five long-read assemblies. We present a new estimate for the onset of the radiation at 10.7 million years ago, based on a time-calibrated phylogeny derived from genome-wide sequence data. We identify a two-fold variation in genome size, driven by expansion of multiple transposable element families, and use the long-read data to reconstruct two evolutionarily important, highly repetitive gene family loci. First, we present the most complete reconstruction to date of the antifreeze glycoprotein gene family, whose emergence enabled survival in sub-zero temperatures, showing the expansion of the antifreeze gene locus from the ancestral to the derived state. Second, we trace the loss of haemoglobin genes in icefishes, the only vertebrates lacking functional haemoglobins, through complete reconstruction of the two haemoglobin gene clusters across notothenioid families. Both the haemoglobin and antifreeze genomic loci are characterised by multiple transposon expansions that may have driven the evolutionary history of these genes.

Abstract The additional water from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves due to climate-induced melt can impact ocean circulation and global climate. However, the major processes driving melt are not adequately represented in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here, we analyze a novel multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 models with consistent meltwater addition to examine the robustness of the modeled response to meltwater, which has not been possible in previous single-model studies. Antarctic meltwater addition induces a substantial weakening of open-ocean deep convection. Additionally, Antarctic Bottom Water warms, its volume contracts, and the sea surface cools. However, the magnitude of the reduction varies greatly across models, with differing anomalies correlated with their respective mean-state climatology, indicating the state-dependency of the climate response to meltwater. A better representation of the Southern Ocean mean state is necessary for narrowing the inter-model spread of response to Antarctic meltwater.

A major consideration for maritime activity in the Southern Hemisphere is the northern limit of icebergs, or the Southern Ocean Limit Of Known Ice (SOLOKI). This analysis of historical reports of icebergs during Southern Hemisphere voyages from 1687 to 1933 provides a basis for examination of their geographical and chronological occurrence during ~250 years. The analyses use tabulated data from 742 voyages and other reports from many sources, some including first-person descriptions. While these data are dependent on icebergs being reported by mariners, as well as the variable frequency of voyages, they demonstrate distinct periods of exceptional frequency of icebergs occurring in certain localities, particularly the far South Atlantic. Based upon historical records the evidence suggests unprecedented numbers of icebergs were present in southern shipping channels in the 1890s. When these historical observations are combined with modern iceberg drift trajectories, their possible origin can be elucidated. Owing to the numbers of icebergs seen and their geographical spread, our results suggest that this was possibly the largest near-synchronous calvings in the last 300 years, and the northernmost extent of the SOLOKI.

Many populations of southern hemisphere baleen whales are recovering and are again becoming dominant consumers in the Southern Ocean. Key to understanding the present and future role of baleen whales in Southern Ocean ecosystems is determining their abundance on foraging grounds. Distance sampling is the standard method for estimating baleen whale abundance but requires specific logistic requirements which are rarely achieved in the remote Southern Ocean. We explore the potential use of tourist vessel-based sampling as a cost-effective solution for conducting distance sampling surveys for baleen whales in the Southern Ocean. We used a dataset of tourist vessel locations from the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and published knowledge from Southern Ocean sighting surveys to determine the number of tourist vessel voyages required for robust abundance estimates. Second, we simulated the abundance and distributions of four baleen whale species for the study area and sampled them with both standardized line transect surveys and non-standardized tourist vessel-based surveys, then compared modeled abundance and distributions from each survey to the original simulation. For the southwest Atlantic, we show that 12-22 tourist vessel voyages are likely required to estimate abundance for humpback and fin whales, with relative estimates for blue, sei, Antarctic minke, and southern right whales. Second, we show tourist vessel-based surveys outperformed standardized line transect surveys at reproducing simulated baleen whale abundances and distribution. These analyses suggest tourist vessel-based surveys are a viable method for estimating baleen whale abundance in remote regions. For the southwest Atlantic, the relatively cost-effective nature of tourist vessel-based survey and regularity of tourist vessel voyages could allow for annual and intra-annual estimates of abundance, a fundamental improvement on current methods, which may capture spatiotemporal trends in baleen whale movements on forging grounds. Comparative modeling of sampling methods provided insights into the behavior of general additive model-based abundance modeling, contributing to the development of detailed guidelines of best practices for these approaches. Through successful engagement with tourist company partners, this method has the potential to characterize abundance across a variety of marine species and spaces globally, and deliver high-quality scientific outcomes relevant to management organizations.

Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica.

Communication at the science-policy interface can be bewildering not only for early-career researchers, but also for many within the research community. In the context of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, decision-makers operating within the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) aspire to use the best available science as a basis for their decision-making. Therefore, to maximize the impact of Antarctic Treaty Parties' substantial investment in southern polar research, researchers wishing to contribute to policy and management must understand 1) how their work relates to and can potentially inform Antarctic and/or global policy and 2) the available mechanisms by which their research can be communicated to decision-makers. Recognizing these needs, we describe the main legal instruments relevant to Antarctic governance (primarily the ATS) and the associated meetings and stakeholders that contribute to policy development for the region. We highlight effective mechanisms by which Antarctic researchers may communicate their science into the policy realm, including through National Delegations or the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), and we detail the key contemporary topics of interest to decision-makers, including those issues where further research is needed. Finally, we describe challenges at the Antarctic science-policy interface that may potentially slow or halt policy development.

Understanding how climate change influences ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is one of the greatest challenges for projecting future sea level rise. The East Antarctic ice shelf cavities host cold water masses that limit melting, and only a few short-term observational studies exist on what drives warm water intrusions into these cavities. We analyse nine years of continuous oceanographic records from below Fimbulisen and relate them to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. On monthly time scales, warm inflow events are associated with weakened coastal easterlies reducing downwelling in front of the ice shelf. Since 2016, however, we observe sustained warming, with inflowing Warm Deep Water temperatures reaching above 0 °C. This is concurrent with an increase in satellite-derived basal melt rates of 0.62 m yr−1, which nearly doubles the basal mass loss at this relatively cold ice shelf cavity. We find that this transition is linked to a reduction in coastal sea ice cover through an increase in atmosphere–ocean momentum transfer and to a strengthening of remote subpolar westerlies. These results imply that East Antarctic ice shelves may become more exposed to warmer waters with a projected increase of circum-Antarctic westerlies, increasing this region’s relevance for sea level rise projections.

The past six years have been marked by some of the most dramatic climatic events observed in the Antarctic region in recent history, commencing with the 2017 sea-ice extreme low. The Humpback Whale Sentinel Programme is a circum-polar biomonitoring program for long term surveillance of the Antarctic sea-ice ecosystem. It has previously signalled the extreme La Niña event of 2010/11, and it was therefore of interest to assess the capacity of existing biomonitoring measures under the program to detect the impacts of 2017 anomalous climatic events. Six ecophysiological markers of population adiposity, diet, and fecundity were targeted, as well as calf and juvenile mortality via stranding records. All indicators, with the exception of bulk stable isotope dietary tracers, indicated a negative trend in 2017, whilst C and N bulk stable isotopes appeared to indicate a lag phase resulting from the anomalous year. The collation of multiple biochemical, chemical, and observational lines of evidence via a single biomonitoring platform provides comprehensive information for evidence-led policy in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region.

Introduction: The Scotia Sea and Antarctic Peninsula are warming rapidly and changes in species distribution are expected. In predicting habitat shifts and considering appropriate management strategies for marine predators, a community-level understanding of how these predators are distributed is desirable. Acquiring such data, particularly in remote areas, is often problematic given the cost associated with the operation of research vessels. Here we use cruise vessels as sampling platforms to explore seabird distribution relative to habitat characteristics. Methods: Data on seabird at-sea distribution were collected using strip-transect counts throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea in the austral summer of 2019-2020. Constrained correspondence analysis (CCA) and generalized additive models (GAM) were used to relate seabird community composition, density, and species richness to environmental covariates. Results: Species assemblages differed between oceanographic areas, with sea surface temperature and distance to coast being the most important predictors of seabird distribution. Our results further revealed a geographic separation of distinct communities rather than hotspot regions in the study area in summer. Discussion: These findings highlight the importance of large-scale environmental characteristics in shaping seabird community structure, presumably through underlying prey distribution and interspecific interactions. The present study contributes to the knowledge of seabird distribution and habitat use as well as the baseline for assessing the response of Antarctic seabird communities to climate warming. We argue that cruise vessels, when combined with structured research surveys, can provide a cost-effective additional tool for the monitoring of community and ecosystem level changes.

At any one time 130 000 icebergs are afloat in the Southern Ocean; 97% of these are too small to be registered in current satellite-based databases, yet the melting of these small icebergs provides a major input to the Southern Ocean. We use a unique set of visual size observations of 53 000 icebergs in the South Atlantic Ocean, the SCAR International Iceberg Database, to derive average iceberg dissolution rates. Fracture into two parts is the dominant dissolution process for tabular icebergs, with an average half-life of 30 days for icebergs <4 km length and 60 days for larger icebergs. Complete shatter producing many icebergs <1 km length is rare. A side attrition rate of 0.23 m d−1 combined with drift speed of 6 km d−1, or any proportional change in both numbers fits the observed changes in iceberg distribution. The largest injection into the Southern Ocean of fresh water and any iceberg-transported material takes place in a ~2.3 × 10⁶ km2 zone extending east-northeast from the Antarctic Peninsula to the Greenwich meridian. The iceberg contribution to salinities and temperatures, with maximum contribution north of the Weddell Sea, differs in some regions, from those indicated by tracking large icebergs.