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We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

1912 fikk Nøtterøy en ny innbygger. Hvalfangeren H. G. Melsom var vendt hjem fra et hvalfangerliv i det fjerne Østen og kjøpte hus på Ørsnes. Her startet han opp en ny fase i livet, som skipsreder. Høydepunktet i hans karriere var trolig da hvalskuta «Lancing» dro om bord den første hvalen fra en opphalingsslipp i hekken på båten. Med dette var den virkelige pelagiske hvalfangsten i gang. Historien om «Lancing» som det første hvalkokeriet som kunne dra en hel hval om bord, er vel kjent og beskrevet. Dette var starten på den pelagiske hvalfangsten som brakte hvalfangsten inn i en ny fase. Men historien om hvalfangeren og rederen fra Nøtterøy, som var en av dem som sto bak, har ikke vært særlig kjent. Med god hjelp fra barnebarnet Henrik Melsom Henriksen, har Tore Dyrhaug skrevet ned denne historien.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered the most unstable part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. As the WAIS is mostly grounded below sea level, its stability is of great concern. A collapse of large parts of the WAIS would result in a significant global sea-level rise. At present, the WAIS shows dramatic ice loss in its Amundsen Sea sector, especially in Pine Island Bay. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is characterised by fast flow, major thinning and rapid grounding-line retreat. Its mass los over recent decades is generally attributed to melting caused by the inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). Future melting of PIG may result in a sea level tipping point, because it could trigger widespread collapse of the WAIS, especially when considering ongoing climate change.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered the most unstable part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. As the WAIS is mostly grounded below sea level, its stability is of great concern. A collapse of large parts of the WAIS would result in a significant global sea-level rise. At present, the WAIS shows dramatic ice loss in its Amundsen Sea sector, especially in Pine Island Bay. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is characterised by fast flow, major thinning and rapid grounding-line retreat. Its mass los over recent decades is generally attributed to melting caused by the inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). Future melting of PIG may result in a sea level tipping point, because it could trigger widespread collapse of the WAIS, especially when considering ongoing climate change.

The main aim of this paper is to explore the potential of combining measurements from fixed- and rotary-wing remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) to complement data sets from radio soundings as well as ship and sea-ice-based instrumentation for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) profiling. This study represents a proof-of-concept of RPAS observations in the Antarctic sea-ice zone. We present first results from the RV Polarstern Antarctic winter expedition in the Weddell Sea in June–August 2013, during which three RPAS were operated to measure temperature, humidity and wind; a fixed-wing small unmanned meteorological observer (SUMO), a fixed-wing meteorological mini-aerial vehicle, and an advanced mission and operation research quadcopter. A total of 86 RPAS flights showed a strongly varying ABL structure ranging from slightly unstable temperature stratification near the surface to conditions with strong surface-based temperature inversions. The RPAS observations supplement the regular upper air soundings and standard meteorological measurements made during the campaign. The SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles agree very well and, excluding cases with strong temperature inversions, 70% of the variance in the difference between the SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles can be explained by natural, temporal, temperature fluctuations. Strong temperature inversions cause the largest differences, which are induced by SUMO’s high climb rates and slow sensor response. Under such conditions, the quadcopter, with its slower climb rate and faster sensor, is very useful in obtaining accurate temperature profiles in the lowest 100 m above the sea ice. Keywords: Remotely piloted aircraft systems; unmanned aerial vehicles; Weddell Sea; polar meteorology; Antarctic; boundary layer meteorology.

Antarctic and Southern Ocean science is vital to understanding natural variability, the processes that govern global change and the role of humans in the Earth and climate system. The potential for new knowledge to be gained from future Antarctic science is substantial. Therefore, the international Antarctic community came together to ‘scan the horizon’ to identify the highest priority scientific questions that researchers should aspire to answer in the next two decades and beyond. Wide consultation was a fundamental principle for the development of a collective, international view of the most important future directions in Antarctic science. From the many possibilities, the horizon scan identified 80 key scientific questions through structured debate, discussion, revision and voting. Questions were clustered into seven topics: i) Antarctic atmosphere and global connections, ii) Southern Ocean and sea ice in a warming world, iii) ice sheet and sea level, iv) the dynamic Earth, v) life on the precipice, vi) near-Earth space and beyond, and vii) human presence in Antarctica. Answering the questions identified by the horizon scan will require innovative experimental designs, novel applications of technology, invention of next-generation field and laboratory approaches, and expanded observing systems and networks. Unbiased, non-contaminating procedures will be required to retrieve the requisite air, biota, sediment, rock, ice and water samples. Sustained year-round access to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean will be essential to increase winter-time measurements. Improved models are needed that represent Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the Earth System, and provide predictions at spatial and temporal resolutions useful for decision making. A co-ordinated portfolio of cross-disciplinary science, based on new models of international collaboration, will be essential as no scientist, programme or nation can realize these aspirations alone.

Very high frequency (VHF) radiotelemetry data has been used for over 30 yr to monitor the behavior patterns of otariid seals. These data have been used in a wide variety of ways, from characterizing the reproductive and foraging ecology of these species to inferring ecosystem changes based on variation in attendance patterns. Yet the accuracy of VHF data has never been appropriately evaluated. Our study compares VHF data collected on 16 lactating Antarctic fur seals to assess onshore attendance with concurrently collected time depth recorder (TDR) data used as the true measurement of time spent onshore. Within the retrieved datasets, 25% of the VHF data could not be interpreted with any reliability. Additionally, there were significant differences in the number and duration of attendance bouts between the 2 instrument types, with VHF data overestimating attendance bout duration by approximately 8.9 h on average. Importantly, the magnitude and direction of errors between VHF and TDR measurements were not systematic, suggesting that VHF data is an inappropriate method for collecting attendance data. Modelling the raw VHF data in a state-space framework elicited mean attendance durations that were indistinguishable from TDR-derived measurements, suggesting this approach may provide a means to re-examine historic VHF data. Moreover, given the evolution of electronic tags in terms of sophistication, miniaturization, longevity and decreasing cost over the last 30 yr, TDRs are a more appropriate means of collecting attendance data on centrally foraging marine mammals such as otariids.

In the South Shetland Margin (SSM), Antarctic Peninsula, a bottom-simulating reflector indicates the presence of hydrate between ca. 500 and 3000 m water depth (mwd). The cold seabed temperatures allow hydrate stability at shallower water depths. During the past five decades, the Antarctic Peninsula has been warming up faster than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere, and long-term ocean warming could affect the stability of the SSM hydrate reservoir at shallow waters. Here, we model the transient response of the SSM hydrate reservoir between 375 and 450 mwd to ocean warming for the period 1958–2100. For the period 1958–2010, seabed temperatures are given by oceanographic measurements in the area, and for 2010–2100 by two temperature scenarios represented by the observed trends for the periods 1960–2010 (0.0034°C y−1) and 1980–2010 (0.023°C y−1). Our results show no hydrate-sourced methane emissions for an ocean warming rate at the seabed of 0.0034 °C y−1. For a rate of 0.023°C y−1, emissions start in 2028 at 375 mwd and extend to 442 mwd at an average rate of about 0.91 mwd y−1, releasing ca. 1.13×103 mol y−1 of methane per metre along the margin by 2100. These emissions originate from dissociation at the top of the hydrate layer, a physical process that steady-state modelling cannot represent. Our results are speculative on account of the lack of direct evidence of a shallow water hydrate reservoir, but they illustrate that the SSM is a key area to observe the effects of ocean warming-induced hydrate dissociation in the coming decades. Keywords: Hydrate; ocean warming; methane emissions; transient modelling; South Shetland Margin; Antarctic Peninsula.

Locally grounded features in ice shelves, called ice rises and rumples, play a key role buttressing discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet and regulating its contribution to sea level. Ice rises typically rise several hundreds of meters above the surrounding ice shelf; shelf flow is diverted around them. On the other hand, shelf ice flows across ice rumples, which typically rise only a few tens of meters above the ice shelf. Ice rises contain rich histories of deglaciation and climate that extend back over timescales ranging from a few millennia to beyond the last glacial maximum. Numerical model results have shown that the buttressing effects of ice rises and rumples are significant, but details of processes and how they evolve remain poorly understood. Fundamental information about the conditions and processes that cause transitions between floating ice shelves, ice rises and ice rumples is needed in order to assess their impact on ice-sheet behavior. Targeted high-resolution observational data are needed to evaluate and improve prognostic numerical models and parameterizations of the effects of small-scale pinning points on grounding-zone dynamics.

The late twentieth century was marked by a significant summertime trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of tropospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH). This trend with poleward shifting tropospheric westerlies was attributed to downward propagation of stratospheric changes induced by ozone depletion. However, the role of the ocean in setting the SAM response to ozone depletion and its dynamical forcing remains unclear. Here we show, using idealized experiments with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model and analysis of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate simulations, that frontal sea surface temperature gradients in the midlatitude SH are critical for translating the ozone-induced stratospheric changes down to the surface. This happens through excitation of wave forcing, which controls the vertical connection of the tropospheric SAM with the stratosphere and shows the importance of internal tropospheric dynamics for stratosphere/troposphere coupling. Thus, improved simulation of oceanic fronts may reduce uncertainties in simulating SH ozone-induced climate changes.

The first record of the humpback anglerfish (Melanocetus johnsonii) in Antarctic waters (Ross Sea) is documented. Species identification is confirmed by the structure of the escal bulb and analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) gene. This record extends the known range of M. johnsonii by more than 1000 nm to the south. The taxonomic status of Melanocetus species in Antarctic waters is discussed. Keywords: Melanocetus sp.; new record; taxonomy; distribution; Ross Sea; Antarctic.

In this study, we analyze a large dataset of seismic signals, recorded by station TROLL in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The signals, recorded in April–December 2012, came from sources near the edge of the ice shelves, at distances of 230–500 km from TROLL. The sources, which moved westward with time, could be associated with four large, tabular icebergs, drifting between 15° E and 8° W. Combining the seismological data with information from satellite remote sensing, we find that one-third of the signals can be attributed to individual icebergs. The trajectories of three of the associated icebergs are known through iceberg-tracking databases, whereas the fourth, a fragment of one of the other three, is untracked, and only scarce information is available from satellite imagery. The observed seismic signals exhibit a wide variety of frequency characteristics, from unstructured episodes to occurrences of iceberg harmonic tremor. Although we are not able to determine the exact cause of the signals, we classify them into five classes on a phenomenological basis. This study demonstrates the potential of regional seismic networks for iceberg monitoring as supplementary resources to information obtained with remote-sensing technologies.

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba are a key part of the marine food web and are the target of the largest fishery in the Southern Ocean. Although ecosystem and management models typically assume that krill are passive drifters, their relatively large size and strong swimming ability suggest that the active movement of krill may play an important role in their spatial distribution. Thus, active swimming behavior by krill may influence spatial structure of food web interactions (e.g. feeding behavior of seabirds and marine mammals) and regional commercial fishery activity. The objective of this work was to model the potential for active movement to affect krill distribution, and consequently growth, reproductive success, and survival. We used state-dependent life history theory, implemented by stochastic dynamic programming, in combination with spatial information on food availability, current velocity, temperature, and predation risk, to predict krill swimming behavior near the northern Antarctic Peninsula. We found that including active krill behavior resulted in distribution patterns that are associated with increased survival, growth, and reproductive success compared to a model that treats krill as passive drifters. The expected reproductive success of actively behaving krill was about 70% greater than that of passively diffusing krill, suggesting that there are strong selective pressures for active behavior along oceanic drift trajectories. This modeling framework will benefit assessments of new catch limits as krill fishing grounds are partitioned into smaller spatial management units. KEYWORDS: Euphausia superba · Behavior · Stochastic dynamic programming · Management · Advection · Southern Ocean

The muddy bottoms of inner Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), South Shetlands, Antarctica, show a high density and richness of macrobenthic species, particularly ascidians. In other areas, ascidians have been reported to play the role of ecosystem engineers, as they support a significant number of epibionts, increasing benthic diversity. In this study, a total of 21 sessile macro-epibiotic taxa present on the ascidian species Corella antarctica Sluiter, 1905, Cnemidocarpa verrucosa (Lesson, 1830) and Molgula pedunculata Herdman, 1881 were identified, with Bryozoa being the most diverse. There were differences between the three ascidian species in terms of richness, percent cover and diversity of sessile macro-epibionts. The morphological characteristics of the tunic surface, the available area for colonization (and its relation with the age of the basibiont individuals) and the pH of the ascidian tunic seem to explain the observed differences. Recent environmental changes in the study area (increase of suspended particulate matter caused by glaciers retreat) have been related to observed shifts in the benthic community structure, negatively affecting the abundance and distribution of the studied ascidian species. Considering the diversity of sessile macro-epibionts found on these species, the impact of environmental shifts may be greater than that estimated so far. Keywords: Sessile macro-epibiont; ascidian; Antarctica; ecosystem- engineer.

Assessments of benthic coastal seawater carbonate chemistry in Antarctica are sparse. The studies have generally been short in duration, during the austral spring/summer, under sea ice, or offshore in ice-free water. Herein we present multi-frequency measurements for seawater collected from the shallow coastal benthos on a weekly schedule over one year (May 2012–May 2013), daily schedule over three months (March–May 2013) and semidiurnal schedule over five weeks (March–April 2013). A notable pH increase (max pH = 8.62) occurred in the late austral spring/summer (November–December 2012), coinciding with sea-ice break-out and subsequent increase in primary productivity. We detected semidiurnal variation in seawater pH with a maximum variation of 0.13 pH units during the day and 0.11 pH units during the night. Daily variation in pH is likely related to biological activity, consistent with previous research. We calculated the variation in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) over each seawater measurement frequency, focusing on the primary DIC drivers in the Palmer Station region. From this, we estimated net biological activity and found it accounts for the greatest variations in DIC. Our seasonal data suggest that this coastal region tends to act as a carbon dioxide source during austral winter months and as a strong sink during the summer. These data characterize present-day seawater carbonate chemistry and the extent to which these measures vary over multiple time scales. This information will inform future experiments designed to evaluate the vulnerability of coastal benthic Antarctic marine organisms to ocean acidification. Keywords: Antarctica; aragonite; calcite; pH; seawater chemistry; total alkalinity.

In the ongoing discussion of the distribution of protists, whether they are globally distributed or endemic to one or both of the polar regions is the subject of heated debate. In this study, we compared next-generation sequencing data from the Arctic and the Southern oceans to reveal the extent of similarities and dissimilarities between the protist communities in the polar regions. We found a total overlap of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) between the two regions of 11.2%. On closer inspection of different taxonomic groups, the overlap ranged between 5.5% (haptophytes) and 14.5% (alveolates). Within the different groups, the proportion of OTUs occurring in both regions greatly differed between the polar regions. On the one hand, the overlap between these two regions is remarkable, given the geographical distance between them. On the other hand, one could expect a greater overlap of OTUs between these regions on account of the similar environmental conditions. The overlap suggests a connection between the polar regions for at least certain species or that the evolutionary divergence has been slow, relative to the timescales of isolation. The different proportions of common OTUs among the groups or regions may be a result of different life cycle strategies or environmental adaptations. Keywords: 18S rDNA; bipolar; next-generation sequencing; phytoplankton; polar regions; protist distribution.