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Floating ice shelves are the Achilles’ heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.

The flightless midge Eretmoptera murphyi is thought to be continuing its invasion of Signy Island via the treads of personnel boots. Current boot-wash biosecurity protocols in the Antarctic region rely on microbial biocides, primarily Virkon® S. As pesticides have limited approval for use in the Antarctic Treaty area, we investigated the efficacy of Virkon® S in controlling the spread of E. murphyi using boot-wash simulations and maximum threshold exposures. We found that E. murphyi tolerates over 8 h of submergence in 1% Virkon® S. Higher concentrations increased effectiveness, but larvae still exhibited > 50% survival after 5 h in 10% Virkon® S. Salt and hot water treatments (without Virkon® S) were explored as possible alternatives. Salt water proved ineffective, with mortality only in first-instar larvae across multi-day exposures. Larvae experienced 100% mortality when exposed for 10 s to 50°C water, but they showed complete survival at 45°C. Given that current boot-wash protocols alone are an ineffective control of this invasive insect, we advocate hot water (> 50°C) to remove soil, followed by Virkon® S as a microbial biocide on ‘clean’ boots. Implications for the spread of invasive invertebrates as a result of increased human activity in the Antarctic region are discussed.

Fe(II) is more soluble and bioavailable than Fe(III) species, therefore the investigation of their relative abundance and redox processes is relevant to better assess the supply of bioavailable iron to the ocean and its impact on marine productivity. In this context, we present a discrete chemiluminescence-based method for the determination of Fe(II) in firn matrices. The method was applied on discrete samples from a snow pit collected at Dome C (DC, Antarctica) and on a shallow firn core from the Holtedahlfonna glacier (HDF, Svalbard), providing the first Fe(II) record from both Antarctica and Svalbard. The method showed low detection limits (0.006 ng g−1 for DC and 0.003 ng g−1 for the HDF) and a precision ranging from 3% to 20% RSD. Fe(II) concentrations ranged between the LoD and 0.077 ng g−1 and between the LoD and 0.300 ng g−1 for the Antarctic and Arctic samples, respectively. The Fe(II) contribution with respect to the total dissolved Fe was comparable in both sites accounting, on average, for 5% and 3%, respectively. We found that Fe(II) correctly identified the Pinatubo/Cerro Hudson eruption in the DC record, demonstrating its reliability as volcanic tracer, while, on the HDF core, we provided the first preliminary insight on the processes that might influence Fe speciation in firn matrices (i.e. organic ligands and pH influences).

For procellariiform seabirds, wind and morphology are crucial determinants of flight costs and flight speeds. During chick-rearing, parental seabirds commute frequently to provision their chicks, and their body mass typically changes between outbound and return legs. In Antarctica, the characteristic diurnal katabatic winds, which blow stronger in the mornings, form a natural experimental setup to investigate flight behaviors of commuting seabirds in response to wind conditions. We GPS-tracked three closely related species of sympatrically breeding Antarctic fulmarine petrels, which differ in wing loading and aspect ratio, and investigated their flight behavior in response to wind and changes in body mass. Such information is critical for understanding how species may respond to climate change. All three species reached higher ground speeds (i.e., the speed over ground) under stronger tailwinds, especially on return legs from foraging. Ground speeds decreased under stronger headwinds. Antarctic petrels (Thalassoica antarctica; intermediate body mass, highest wing loading, and aspect ratio) responded stronger to changes in wind speed and direction than cape petrels (Daption capense; lowest body mass, wing loading, and aspect ratio) or southern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialoides; highest body mass, intermediate wing loading, and aspect ratio). Birds did not adjust their flight direction in relation to wind direction nor the maximum distance from their nests when encountering headwinds on outbound commutes. However, birds appeared to adjust the timing of commutes to benefit from strong katabatic winds as tailwinds on outbound legs and avoid strong katabatic winds as headwinds on return legs. Despite these adaptations to the predictable diurnal wind conditions, birds frequently encountered unfavorably strong headwinds, possibly as a result of weather systems disrupting the katabatics. How the predicted decrease in Antarctic near-coastal wind speeds over the remainder of the century will affect flight costs and breeding success and ultimately population trajectories remains to be seen.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Ozone depletion over Polar Regions is monitored each year by satellite and ground-based instruments. The first signs of healing of the ozone layer linked to the decrease of ozone destructive substances (ODSs) were observed in Antarctica using different metrics (ozone mean values, ozone mass deficit, area of the ozone hole) and simple or sophisticated models. Chemistry climate models predict that climate change will not affect expected ozone recovery over Antarctica but will accelerate recovery in the Arctic due to the possible enhancement of the Brewer Dobson circulation. However, ozone loss observations by SAOZ UV-Vis spectrometers do not show a clear sign of recovery in the latter region. In addition, a record of 38% ozone loss in 2010/2011 and 2019/2020 was estimated. In this study, the vortex-averaged ozone loss in the last three decades will be evaluated for both Polar Regions using the passive ozone tracer of two chemical transport models (REPROBUS and SLIMCAT CTMs) and total ozone observations from SAOZ and satellite observations (IASI/METOP and Multi-Sensor Reanalysis (MSR-2)). The tracer method allows us to determine the evolution of the daily rate of ozone destruction, and the amplitude of the cumulative loss at the end of the winter. The cumulative ozone destruction in the Artic varies between 0-10% in relatively warm winters with short vortex duration to up to 25-38% in colder winters with longer vortex persistence, while in Antarctica it is mostly stable, around 50%. Interannual variability of 10-days average rate will be analyzed and compared between both hemispheres as well as the timing to reach different thresholds of absolute ozone loss values. Finally, linear trend of ozone loss and temperature since 2000 will be estimated in both Polar Regions in order to evaluate possible ozone recovery.

Global targets for area-based conservation and management must move beyond threshold-based targets alone and must account for the quality of such areas. In the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, a region where key biodiversity faces unprecedented risks from climate change and where there is a growing demand to extract resources, a number of marine areas have been afforded enhanced conservation or management measures through two adopted marine protected areas (MPAs). However, evidence suggests that additional high quality areas could benefit from a proposed network of MPAs. Penguins offer a particular opportunity to identify high quality areas because these birds, as highly visible central-place foragers, are considered indicator species whose populations reflect the state of the surrounding marine environment. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of the location of penguin colonies and their associated abundance estimates in Antarctica. We then estimated the at-sea distribution of birds based on information derived from tracking data and through the application of a modified foraging radius approach with a density decay function to identify some of the most important marine areas for chick-rearing adult penguins throughout waters surrounding Antarctica following the Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) framework. Additionally, we assessed how marine IBAs overlapped with the currently adopted and proposed network of key management areas (primarily MPAs), and how the krill fishery likely overlapped with marine IBAs over the past five decades. We identified 63 marine IBAs throughout Antarctic waters and found that were the proposed MPAs to be adopted, the permanent conservation of high quality areas for penguin species would increase by between 49 and 100% depending on the species. Furthermore, our data show that, despite a generally contracting range of operation by the krill fishery in Antarctica over the past five decades, a consistently disproportionate amount of krill is being harvested within marine IBAs compared to the total area in which the fishery operates. Our results support the designation of the proposed MPA network and offer additional guidance as to where decision-makers should act before further perturbation occurs in the Antarctic marine ecosystem.

Curvilinear channels on the surface of an ice shelf indicate the presence of large channels at the base. Modelling studies have shown that where these surface expressions intersect the grounding line, they coincide with the likely outflow of subglacial water. An understanding of the initiation and the ice–ocean evolution of the basal channels is required to understand the present behaviour and future dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves. Here, we present focused active seismic and radar surveys of a basal channel, ∼950 m wide and ∼200 m high, and its upstream continuation beneath Support Force Glacier, which feeds into the Filchner Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. Immediately seaward from the grounding line, below the basal channel, the seismic profiles show an ∼6.75 km long, 3.2 km wide and 200 m thick sedimentary sequence with chaotic to weakly stratified reflections we interpret as a grounding line fan deposited by a subglacial drainage channel directly upstream of the basal channel. Further downstream the seabed has a different character; it consists of harder, stratified consolidated sediments, deposited under different glaciological circumstances, or possibly bedrock. In contrast to the standard perception of a rapid change in ice shelf thickness just downstream of the grounding line, we find a flat topography of the ice shelf base with an almost constant ice thickness gradient along-flow, indicating only little basal melting, but an initial widening of the basal channel, which we ascribe to melting along its flanks. Our findings provide a detailed view of a more complex interaction between the ocean and subglacial hydrology to form basal channels in ice shelves.

In this paper, we examine potential impact of discharge in Subglacial Lake Engelhardt, West Antarctica, on the stability of the Ross Ice Shelf around the grounding line by combining satellite altimetry and remote sensing images. According to satellite altimetry data from the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat; 2003–06), Subglacial Lake Engelhardt (SLE) discharged ca. 1.91 ± 0.04 km3 of water into the downstream region. The ice-surface record derived from ICESat (2006–09) and CryoSat-2 (2011–17) data shows that the lake gained ca. 2.09 ± 0.05 km3 of water during the refilling event following the drainage event, taking three times as much time to reach the previous water level before the discharge; the calculation demonstrates that water input from an upstream lake is unable to sustain water increase in SLE, indicating that the subglacial, hydrologic system and groundwater flow could have contributed to water increase in SLE via hydrologic networks. Satellite images captured surface depressions and crevasses at the drainage outlet point of hydrologic networks around the grounding line; satellite altimetry data show that the ice surface there is still depressing even though the subglacial discharge has finished, potentially reflecting the long-term impact of subglacial discharge on the stability of the immediate Ross Ice Shelf around the grounding line. Keywords: Antarctic subglacial lakes; water storage change; satellite altimetry; remote sensing; hydraulic potential method.

To better capture the air-snow-ice interaction, a snow/ice enhanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ice) model has been developed. This study examines the performance of WRF-ice and its blowing snow component during a strong cyclone event from October 23 to 27, 2017 over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is characterized by a synoptic cyclone crossing the northern part of the Peninsula and an embodied mesoscale cyclone over the Weddell Sea. Evolution of the cyclone is accurately reproduced in the 5-km resolution WRF-ice simulation, and the simulated near-surface conditions agree well with station and satellite observations. Numerical simulations show that the process of blowing snow sublimation can be prominent within the lower atmosphere when the air is dry, and produces moistening and cooling effects. Over relatively warm and humid areas, cloud enhancement by blowing snow can lead to either colder or warmer surfaces because of competing effects of longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcings. In particular, additional moisture from blowing snow sublimation can slightly intensify precipitation over the mountains. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that absorbed shortwave (Sa), incoming longwave (Ld), and outgoing longwave (Lu) are dominant components of surface energy budget. When increases in Ld, Lu, and sensible heat flux are combined with decreases in Sa and latent heat flux due to blowing snow effects, a negative surface net heat flux (∼0.5 W/m2) occurs during daytime. A positive domain-total surface mass balance (∼0.43 Gt) is generated during the simulated cyclone event due to increases in precipitation, decreases in runoff, and decreases in sublimation.

Quantarctica (https://www.npolar.no/quantarctica) is a geospatial data package, analysis environment, and visualization platform for the Antarctic Continent, Southern Ocean (>40oS), and sub-Antarctic islands. Quantarctica works with the free, cross-platform Geographical Information System (GIS) software QGIS and can run without an Internet connection, making it a viable tool for fieldwork in remote areas. The data package includes basemaps, satellite imagery, terrain models, and scientific data in nine disciplines, including physical and biological sciences, environmental management, and social science. To provide a clear and responsive user experience, cartography and rendering settings are carefully prepared using colour sets that work well for typical data combinations and with consideration of users with common colour vision deficiencies. Metadata included in each dataset provides brief abstracts for non-specialists and references to the original data sources. Thus, Quantarctica provides an integrated environment to view and analyse multiple Antarctic datasets together conveniently and with a low entry barrier.

New Zealand was among the last habitable places on earth to be colonized by humans. Charcoal records indicate that wildfires were rare prior to colonization and widespread following the 13th- to 14th-century Māori settlement, but the precise timing and magnitude of associated biomass-burning emissions are unknown, as are effects on light-absorbing black carbon aerosol concentrations over the pristine Southern Ocean and Antarctica. Here we used an array of well-dated Antarctic ice-core records to show that while black carbon deposition rates were stable over continental Antarctica during the past two millennia, they were approximately threefold higher over the northern Antarctic Peninsula during the past 700 years. Aerosol modelling demonstrates that the observed deposition could result only from increased emissions poleward of 40° S—implicating fires in Tasmania, New Zealand and Patagonia—but only New Zealand palaeofire records indicate coincident increases. Rapid deposition increases started in 1297 (±30 s.d.) in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, consistent with the late 13th-century Māori settlement and New Zealand black carbon emissions of 36 (±21 2 s.d.) Gg y−1 during peak deposition in the 16th century. While charcoal and pollen records suggest earlier, climate-modulated burning in Tasmania and southern Patagonia, deposition in Antarctica shows that black carbon emissions from burning in New Zealand dwarfed other preindustrial emissions in these regions during the past 2,000 years, providing clear evidence of large-scale environmental effects associated with early human activities across the remote Southern Hemisphere.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.