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The absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Southern Ocean represents a critical component of the global oceanic carbon budget. Previous assessments of air-sea carbon flux variations and long-term trends in polar regions during winter have faced limitations due to scarce field data and the lack of ocean color satellite imagery, causing uncertainties in estimating CO2 flux estimation. This study utilized the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation satellite to construct a continuous 16-year (2006?2021) time series of sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the Southern Ocean. Our findings revealed that the polar region in South Ocean acts as a carbon sink in winter, with CO2 flux of ?30 TgC in high-latitude areas (South of 50°S). This work highlights the efficacy of active remote sensing for monitoring sea surface pCO2 and contributes insights into the dynamic carbonate systems of the Southern Ocean.

Satellite ocean color observations are extensively utilized in global carbon sink evaluation. However, the valid coverage of chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla, mg m−3) measurements from these observations is severely limited during autumn and winter in high latitude oceans. The high solar zenith angle (SZA) stands as one of the primary contributors to the reduced quality of Chla products in the high-latitude Southern Ocean during these seasons. This study addresses this challenge by employing a random forest-based regression ensemble (RFRE) method to enhance the quality of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Chla products affected by high SZA conditions. The RFRE model incorporates the color index (CI), band-ratio index (R), SZA, sensor zenith angle (senz), and Rayleigh-corrected reflectance at 869 nm (Rrc(869)) as predictors. The results indicate that the RFRE model significantly increased the MODIS observed Chla coverage (1.03 to 3.24 times) in high-latitude Southern Ocean regions to the quality of standard Chla products. By applying the recovered Chla to re-evaluate the carbon sink in South Ocean, results showed that the Southern Ocean’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) in winter has been underestimated (5.9–18.6 Tg C year−1) in previous assessments. This study underscores the significance of improving the Chla products for a more accurate estimation of winter carbon sink in the Southern Ocean.

Sea surface fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO₂ssw) was measured across the Weddell gyre and the eastern sector in the Atlantic Southern Ocean in autumn. During the occupation between February and April 2019, the region of the study transect was a potential ocean CO₂ sink. A net CO₂ flux (FCO₂) of −6.2 (± 8; sink) mmol m^–2 d^–1 was estimated for the entire study region, with the largest average CO₂ sink of −10.0 (± 8) mmol m^–2 d^–1 in the partly ice-covered Astrid Ridge (AR) region near the coast at 68°S and −6.1 (± 8) mmol m^–2d^–1 was observed in the Maud Rise (MR) region. A CO₂ sink was also observed south of 66°S in the Weddell Sea (WS). To assess the main drivers describing the variability of fCO₂ssw, a correlation model using fCO₂ and oxygen saturation was considered. Spatial distributions of the fCO₂ saturation/O₂ saturation correlations, described relative to the surface water properties of the controlling variables (chlorophyll a, apparent oxygen utilization (AOU), sea surface temperature, and sea surface salinity) further constrained the interplay of the processes driving the fCO₂ssw distributions. Photosynthetic CO₂ drawdown significantly offsets the influence of the upwelling of CO₂-rich waters in the central Weddell gyre and enhanced the CO₂ sink in the region. FCO₂ of −6.9 mmol m^–2 d^–1 estimated for the Weddell gyre in this study was different from FCO₂ of −2.5 mmol m^–2 d^–1 in autumn estimated in a previous study. Due to low CO₂ data coverage during autumn, limited sea-air CO₂ flux estimates from direct sea-surface CO₂ observations particularly for the Weddell gyre region are available with which to compare the values estimated in this study. This highlights the importance of increasing seasonal CO₂ observations especially during autumn/winter to improving the seasonal coverage of flux estimates in the seasonal sea ice-covered regions of the Southern Ocean.

The ocean's ability to take up and store CO2 is a key factor for understanding past and future climate variability. However, qualitative and quantitative understanding of surface-to-interior pathways, and how the ocean circulation affects the CO2 uptake, is limited. Consequently, how changes in ocean circulation may influence carbon uptake and storage and therefore the future climate remains ambiguous. Here we quantify the roles played by ocean circulation and various water masses in the meridional redistribution of carbon. We do so by calculating streamfunctions defined in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and latitude coordinates, using output from a coupled biogeochemical-physical model. By further separating DIC into components originating from the solubility pump and a residual including the biological pump, air-sea disequilibrium, and anthropogenic CO2, we are able to distinguish the dominant pathways of how carbon enters particular water masses. With this new tool, we show that the largest meridional carbon transport occurs in a pole-to-equator transport in the subtropical gyres in the upper ocean. We are able to show that this pole-to-equator DIC transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)-related DIC transport are mainly driven by the solubility pump. By contrast, the DIC transport associated with deep circulation, including that in Antarctic bottom water and Pacific deep water, is mostly driven by the biological pump. As these two pumps, as well as ocean circulation, are widely expected to be impacted by anthropogenic changes, these findings have implications for the future role of the ocean as a climate-buffering carbon reservoir.

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab-ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

Winter to summer CO2 dynamics within landfast sea ice in McMurdo Sound (Antarctica) were investigated using bulk ice pCO2 measurements, air-snow-ice CO2 fluxes, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and ikaite saturation state. Our results suggest depth-dependent biotic and abiotic controls that led us to discriminate the ice column in three layers. At the surface, winter pCO2 supersaturation drove CO2 release to the atmosphere while spring-summer pCO2 undersaturation led to CO2 uptake most of the time. CO2 fluxes showed a diel pattern superimposed upon this seasonal pattern which was potentially assigned to either ice skin freeze-thaw cycles or diel changes in net community production. In the ice interior, the pCO2 decrease across the season was driven by physical processes, mainly independent of the autotrophic and heterotrophic phases. Bottom sea ice was characterized by a massive biomass build-up counterintuitively associated with transient heterotrophic activity and nitrate plus nitrite accumulation. This inconsistency is likely related to the formation of a biofilm. This biofilm hosts both autotrophic and heterotrophic activities at the bottom of the ice during spring and may promote calcium carbonate precipitation.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pCO2) varied on millennial timescales in phase with Antarctic temperature during the last glacial period. A prevailing view has been that carbon release and uptake by the Southern Ocean dominated this millennial-scale variability in pCO2. Here, using Earth System Model experiments with an improved parameterization of ocean vertical mixing, we find a major role for terrestrial and oceanic carbon releases in driving the pCO2 trend. In our simulations, a change in Northern Hemisphere insolation weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leading to increasing pCO2 and Antarctic temperatures. The simulated rise in pCO2 is caused in equal parts by increased CO2 outgassing from the global ocean due to a reduced biological activity and changed ventilation rates, and terrestrial carbon release as a response to southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The simulated terrestrial release of carbon could explain stadial declines in organic carbon reservoirs observed in recent ice core δ13C measurements. Our results show that parallel variations in Antarctic temperature and pCO2 do not necessitate that the Southern Ocean dominates carbon exchange; instead, changes in carbon flux from the global ocean and land carbon reservoirs can explain the observed pCO2 (and δ13C) changes.

The Inverse Gaussian approximation of transit time distribution method (IG-TTD) is widely used to infer the anthropogenic carbon (Cant) concentration in the ocean from measurements of transient tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Its accuracy relies on the validity of several assumptions, notably (i) a steady state ocean circulation, (ii) a prescribed age tracer saturation history, e.g., a constant 100% saturation, (iii) a prescribed constant degree of mixing in the ocean, (iv) a constant surface ocean air-sea CO2 disequilibrium with time, and (v) that preformed alkalinity can be sufficiently estimated by salinity or salinity and temperature. Here, these assumptions are evaluated using simulated “model-truth” of Cant. The results give the IG-TTD method a range of uncertainty from 7.8% to 13.6% (11.4 Pg C to 19.8 Pg C) due to above assumptions, which is about half of the uncertainty derived in previous model studies. Assumptions (ii), (iv) and (iii) are the three largest sources of uncertainties, accounting for 5.5%, 3.8% and 3.0%, respectively, while assumptions (i) and (v) only contribute about 0.6% and 0.7%. Regionally, the Southern Ocean contributes the largest uncertainty, of 7.8%, while the North Atlantic contributes about 1.3%. Our findings demonstrate that spatial-dependency of , and temporal changes in tracer saturation and air-sea CO2 disequilibrium have strong compensating effect on the estimated Cant. The values of these parameters should be quantified to reduce the uncertainty of IG-TTD; this is increasingly important under a changing ocean climate.

During the 35th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were carried out using a Li-Cor CO 2 /H 2 O analyser at Bharati, the Indian Antarctic research station. This study examines the short-term variability of atmospheric CO 2 during the austral summer (January–February) of 2016. An average of 396.25 ± 4.20 ppm was observed during the study period. Meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and atmospheric boundary layer height in conjunction with photosynthetically active radiation, the biological activity indicator which modulates atmospheric CO 2 concentration have been investigated. High wind speed (>20 m s −1 ) combined with precipitation scavenges CO 2 in the atmosphere, resulting in low concentrations at the study site. The lowest CO 2 concentration of 385 ppm coincided with heavy precipitation of 15 mm during study period. Statistical analysis of the data shows that precipitation and relative humidity independently correlated 55% (r = −0.55) and 32% (r = −0.32), respectively, with the variability of CO 2 mixing in the atmosphere at the study site. Atmospheric CO 2 was significantly correlated with precipitation alone with a p value of 0.003. Further, multiple regression analysis was performed to test the significant relation between variability of atmospheric CO 2 and meteorological parameters. Long-range air-mass transport analysis depicted that the majority of the air masses are reaching the study site through the oceanic region.

While the number of surface ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) measurements has soared the recent decades, the Southern Ocean remains undersampled. Williams et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005541) now present pCO2 estimates based on data from pH-sensor equipped Bio-Argo floats, which have been measuring in the Southern Ocean since 2014. The authors demonstrate the utility of these data for understanding the carbon cycle in this region, which has a large influence on the distribution of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Biogeochemical sensors deployed on autonomous platforms hold the potential to shape our view of the ocean carbon cycle in the coming decades.

The Southern Ocean (SO) carbon sink has strengthened substantially since the year 2000, following a decade of a weakening trend. However, the surface ocean pCO2 data underlying this trend reversal are sparse, requiring a substantial amount of extrapolation to map the data. Here we use nine different pCO2 mapping products to investigate the SO trends and their sensitivity to the mapping procedure. We find a robust temporal coherence for the entire SO, with eight of the nine products agreeing on the sign of the decadal trends, that is, a weakening CO2 sink trend in the 1990s (on average 0.22 ± 0.24 Pg C yr−1 decade−1), and a strengthening sink trend during the 2000s (−0.35 ± 0.23 Pg C yr−1 decade−1). Spatially, the multiproduct mean reveals rather uniform trends, but the confidence is limited, given the small number of statistically significant trends from the individual products, particularly during the data-sparse 1990–1999 period.

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100.

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.

In this study, we present evidence that Antarctic and Arctic sea ice act as sink for atmospheric CO2 during periods of snowmelt and surface flooding. The CO2 flux measured directly at the flooded sea ice surface (Fflood) constituted a net CO2 sink of −1.1 ± 0.9 mmol C m−2 d−1 (mean ± 1 SD), which was an order of magnitude higher than the flux measured at the snow-air surface (Fsnow) and bare ice surface (Fice). The Fsnow/Fflood ratio decreased with increasing water equivalent of snow and superimposed-ice, suggesting that the properties of snow and superimposed-ice formation affect the magnitude of the CO2 flux. The Fsnow/Fflood ratio ranged from 0.1 to 0.5, illustrating that 50–90% of the potential flux at the flooded surface was reduced due to the presence of snow/superimposed-ice. Hence, snow cover properties and superimposed-ice play an important role in the CO2 fluxes across the sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface.

Growth of Antarctic ice sheet during the Cenozoic 34 million years ago appears as a potential tipping point in the long term cooling trend that began 50 Ma ago. For decades, the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) following the opening of the Drake Passage and of the Tasman Seaway has been suggested as the main driver of the continental-scale Antarctic glaciation. However, recent modeling works emphasized that the Eocene/Oligocene atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lowering could be the primary forcing of the Antarctic glaciation, questioning the ACC theory. Here, we investigate the response of the ACC to changes in CO2concentrations occurring from the late Eocene to the late Oligocene. We used a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model (FOAM) with a mid-Oligocene geography. We find that the opening of southern oceanic gateways does not trigger the onset of the ACC for CO2typical of the late Eocene (>840 ppm). A cooler background climatic state such as the one prevalent at the end of the Oligocene is required to simulate a well-developed ACC. In this cold configuration, the intensified sea-ice development around Antarctica and the resulting brine formation lead to a strong latitudinal density gradient in the Southern Ocean favoring the compensation of the Ekman transport, and consequently the ACC. Our results imply that the ACC has acted as a feedback rather than as a driver of the global cooling.

Sea ice plays a dynamic role in the air-sea exchange of CO2. In addition to abiotic inorganic carbon fluxes, an active microbial community produces and remineralizes organic carbon, which can accumulate in sea ice brines as dissolved organic matter (DOM). In this study, the characteristics of DOM fluorescence in Antarctic sea ice brines from the western Weddell Sea were investigated. Two humic-like components were identified, which were identical to those previously found to accumulate in the deep ocean and represent refractory material. Three amino-acid-like signals were found, one of which was unique to the brines and another that was spectrally very similar to tryptophan and found both in seawater and in brine samples. The tryptophan-like fluorescence in the brines exhibited intensities higher than could be explained by conservative behavior during the freezing of seawater. Its fluorescence was correlated with the accumulation of nitrogen-rich DOM to concentrations up to 900 μmol L−1 as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and, thus, potentially represented proteins released by ice organisms. A second, nitrogen-poor DOM fraction also accumulated in the brines to concentrations up to 200 μmol L−1 but was not correlated with any of the fluorescence signals identified. Because of the high C:N ratio and lack of fluorescence, this material is thought to represent extracellular polymeric substances, which consist primarily of polysaccharides. The clear grouping of the DOM pool into either proteinaceous or carbohydrate-dominated material indicates that the production and accumulation of these two subpools of DOM in sea ice brines is, to some extent, decoupled.

The amount of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) that entered the Weddell Sea between 1992 and 2008 (Cant1992?2008) was assessed using the extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method. In the Warm Deep Water (WDW) and the Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW), Cant1992?2008 values were insignificant, whereas values as high as 8 ?mol kg?1 were observed over the shelf. Cant1992?2008 concentrations in the surface layer varied with latitude between 2 and 11 ?mol kg?1. Weak intrusion of anthropogenic CO2 into Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW) was demonstrated (Cant1992?2008 yields 1.5?2 ?mol kg?1). That more Cant1992?2008 was found in the WSDW than in the WSBW is surprising, but can be explained by intense ventilation of the WSDW originating from east of the Weddell Gyre. The invasion of Cant1992?2008 provokes a shift in the equilibria of the carbonate system, resulting in acidification and reduction of CO32? concentration. The mean decrease of pH in the upper 200 m layer was 0.016. The largest decrease of calcite and aragonite saturation states was observed at the surface. This implies that surface waters might become undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the future while the underlying WDW is still saturated. Results of this analysis suggest that complete undersaturation of surface waters in the Weddell Sea will be reached after the 21st century.

This study explores the changes in the surface water fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2) and biological carbon uptake in two Southern Ocean iron fertilisation experiments with different hydrographic regimes. The Southern Ocean Iron Release Experiment (SOIREE) experiment was carried out south of the Antarctic Polar Front (APF) at 61°S, 141°E in February 1999 in a stable hydrographic setting. The EisenEx experiment was conducted in a cyclonic eddy north of the APF at 48°S, 21°E in November 2000 and was characterised by a rapid succession of low to storm-force wind speeds and dynamic hydrographic conditions. The iron additions promoted algal blooms in both studies. They alleviated algal iron limitation during the 13-day SOIREE experiment and probably during the first 12 days of EisenEx. The fCO2 in surface water decreased at a constant rate of 3.8μatmday−1 from 4 to 5 days onwards in SOIREE. The fCO2 reduction was 35μatm after 13 days. The evolution of surface water fCO2 in the iron-enriched waters (or ‘patch’) displayed a saw tooth pattern in EisenEx, in response to algal carbon uptake in calm conditions and deep mixing and horizontal dispersion during storms. The maximum fCO2 reduction was 18–20μatm after 12 and 21 days with lower values in between. The iron-enriched waters in EisenEx absorbed four times more atmospheric CO2 than in SOIREE between 5 and 12 days, as a result of stronger winds. The total biological uptake of inorganic carbon across the patch was 1389ton C (±10%) in SOIREE and 1433ton C (±27%) in EisenEx after 12 days (1ton=106g). This similarity probably reflects the comparable size of the iron additions, as well as algal growth at a similar near-maximum growth rate in these regions. The findings imply that the different mixing regimes had less effect on the overall biological carbon uptake across the iron-enriched waters than suggested by the evolution of fCO2 in surface water.

The fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2) of the surface waters of the Weddell Sea along the prime meridian has been described for the austral autumn in 1996 and 1998. For individual years, fCO2 has a strong linear relationship with sea surface temperature, although the relationships cannot be reconciled to provide an interannually consistent algorithm for remotely sensed assessment of fCO2. However, from the assumption that Weddell Sea surface water has a single end member (upwelled Warm Deep Water) we have determined the relative contributions of heating, ice-melt, and biological activity on fCO2. A breakdown of the controls shows that the measured annual fCO2 distributions can be recreated for both transects by adjusting solely for thermodynamic forcing, and model adjustments for salinity are small except in regions of significant upwelling during 1998. The incorporation of nitrate utilisation into the model results in a general and significant underestimation of fCO2. This runs contrary to the earlier findings of Sabine and Key (Mar. Chem. 60 (1998) 95) in the Southern Ocean although it is consistent with models in the area (Louanchi et al., Deep-Sea Res. I 48 (2001) 1581). A major caveat to these findings is the significant departure of the thermodynamic model and a tightening of the nitrate-adjusted model in 1998 in areas with deeper mixing in the southern Weddell Sea. We propose that there are two reasons for the discrepancies in our model: the source waters are not as homogenous as the model assumes; and there are geographical and seasonal variations of CO2 exchange with the atmosphere and the input of inorganic carbon and nitrate from below the mixed layer resulting in imbalances in the mixed layer concentration ratios.

A suite of standard ocean hydrographic and circulation metrics are applied to the equilibrium physical solutions from 13 global carbon models participating in phase 2 of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Model-data comparisons are presented for sea surface temperature and salinity, seasonal mixed layer depth, meridional heat and freshwater transport, 3-D hydrographic fields, and meridional overturning. Considerable variation exists among the OCMIP-2 simulations, with some of the solutions falling noticeably outside available observational constraints. For some cases, model-model and model-data differences can be related to variations in surface forcing, subgrid-scale parameterizations, and model architecture. These errors in the physical metrics point to significant problems in the underlying model representations of ocean transport and dynamics, problems that directly affect the OCMIP predicted ocean tracer and carbon cycle variables (e.g., air-sea CO2 flux, chlorofluorocarbon and anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and export production). A substantial fraction of the large model-model ranges in OCMIP-2 biogeochemical fields (±25–40%) represents the propagation of known errors in model physics. Therefore the model-model spread likely overstates the uncertainty in our current understanding of the ocean carbon system, particularly for transport-dominated fields such as the historical uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A full error assessment, however, would need to account for additional sources of uncertainty such as more complex biological-chemical-physical interactions, biases arising from poorly resolved or neglected physical processes, and climate change.