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A drifting wave-ice buoy (Medusa-766) was deployed at the Lützow-Holm Bay (LHB) marginal ice zone in Antarctica during the 63rd Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition to study the wave influence on the unstable LHB fast ice. Medusa-766 survived the Antarctic winter as it was located deep in the ice cover with the shortest distance to the ice-free Southern Ocean over 1,000?km; at this time, there was evidence of 8-cm-height wave signal at the buoy position. Using the the ECMWF?s reanalysis wave data, we show that the incoming waves were likely 4-m waves that were generated by an extratropical cyclone in the Southern Ocean. Wave-induced ice breakup potential for this event could extend hundreds of kilometres into the ice field. When Medusa-766 was in LHB in the summer months, it did not detect sizable wave energy despite the low sea ice concentration extent even during on-ice wave events. Understanding the wave attenuation characteristics is needed to elucidate the ocean wave effect to the unstable LHB fast ice. The success of Medusa-766 demonstrates the robustness of the general design and the high sensitivity of the sensor used, which is promising for future LHB wave?ice interaction research.

Ice shelves, which regulate ice flow from the Antarctic ice sheet towards the ocean, are shaped by spatiotemporal patterns of surface accumulation, surface/basal melt and ice dynamics. Therefore, an ice dynamic and accumulation history are imprinted in the internal ice stratigraphy, which can be imaged by radar in the form of internal reflection horizons (IRHs). Here, IRHs were derived from radar data combined across radar platforms (airborne and ground-based) in coastal eastern Dronning Maud Land (East Antarctica), comprising three ice rises and adjacent two ice shelves. To facilitate interpretation of dominant spatiotemporal patterns of processes shaping the local IRH geometry, traced IRHs are classified into three different types (laterally continuous, discontinuous or absent/IRH-free). Near-surface laterally continuous IRHs reveal local accumulation patterns, reflecting the mean easterly wind direction, and correlate with surface slopes. Areas of current and past increased ice flow and internal deformation are marked by discontinuous or IRH-free zones, and can inform about paleo ice-stream dynamics. The established IRH datasets extend continent-wide mapping efforts of IRHs to an important and climatically sensitive ice marginal region of Antarctica and are ready for integration into ice-flow models to improve predictions of Antarctic ice drainage.

Future mass loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet represents a major uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Recent studies have highlighted the potential vulnerability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric and oceanic changes, but long-term observations inside the ice shelf cavities are rare. Here, we present new insights from observations from three oceanic moorings below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf from 2009 to 2023. We examine the characteristics of intrusions of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) across a sill connecting the cavity to the open ocean and investigate seasonal variability of the circulation and water masses inside the cavity using an optimum multiparameter analysis. In autumn, the water below the 345 m deep central part of the ice shelf is composed of up to 30 % solar-heated, buoyant Antarctic Surface Water (ASW), separating colder Ice Shelf Water from the ice base and affecting the cavity circulation on seasonal timescales. At depth, the occurrence of mWDW is associated with the advection of cyclonic eddies across the sill into the cavity. These eddies reach up to the ice base. The warm intrusions are observed most often from January to March and from September to November, and traces of mWDW-derived meltwater close to the ice base imply an overturning of these warm intrusions inside the cavity. We suggest that this timing is set by both the offshore thermocline depth and the interactions of the Antarctic Slope Current with the ice shelf topography over the continental slope. Our findings provide a better understanding of the interplay between shallow inflows of ASW contributions and deep inflows of mWDW for basal melting at Fimbulisen Ice Shelf, with implications for the potential vulnerability of the ice shelf to climate change.

Supraglacial lakes on Antarctic ice shelves can have far-reaching implications for ice-sheet stability, highlighting the need to understand their dynamics, controls and role in the ice-sheet mass budget. We combine a detailed satellite-based record of seasonal lake evolution in Dronning Maud Land with a high-resolution simulation from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional to identify drivers of lake variability between 2014 and 2021. Correlations between summer lake extents and climate parameters reveal complex relationships that vary both in space and time. Shortwave radiation contributes positively to the energy budget during summer melt seasons, but summers with enhanced longwave radiation are more prone to surface melting and ponding, which is further enhanced by advected heat from summer precipitation. In contrast, previous winter precipitation has a negative effect on summer lake extents, presumably by increasing albedo and pore space, delaying the accumulation of meltwater. Downslope katabatic or föhn winds promote ponding around the grounding zones of some ice shelves. At a larger scale, we find that summers during periods of negative southern annular mode are associated with increased ponding in Dronning Maud Land. The high variability in seasonal lake extents indicates that these ice shelves are highly sensitive to future warming or intensified extreme events.

Model projections suggest that the continental shelf in the southern Weddell Sea may experience a shift from today's near-freezing temperature to a much warmer state, where warm water floods the shelf and basal melt rates beneath the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf increase dramatically. Today, the Filchner Trough serves as a conduit for the southward flow of Warm Deep Water (WDW) during summer and, thus, requires continuous monitoring of its hydrographic conditions. An extensive network of moorings was installed at key sites along the inflow pathway from 2017 to 2021, to expand on existing mooring records starting in 2014. The moorings complemented with under-ice profiling floats reveal two inflow pathways, where WDW enters along the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough as well as through a smaller trough east of there. Within the observed period, 2017 and 2018 feature anomalously warm inflows. The inflow is regulated by the heaving of isopycnals over the continental slope, and the southward propagation toward Filchner Ice Shelf is two times faster during these warm years. Furthermore, the warm years coincide with low summer sea ice concentration, which enhances surface stratification through increased freshwater input and modifies sea ice-ocean stresses that both act to lift the warm water layer and increase the temperatures on the continental shelf. Finally, the recent record low sea ice conditions around the Antarctic emphasize the importance of our findings and raise concerns regarding a potentially increasing presence of WDW on the southern Weddell Sea shelf.

Surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet must be better understood to document the current Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. In situ point data using snow stakes and ice cores are often used to evaluate the state of the ice sheet's mass balance, as well as to assess SMB derived from regional climate models, which are then used to produce future climate projections. However, spatial representativeness of individual point data remains largely unknown, particularly in the coastal regions of Antarctica with highly variable terrain. Here, we compare ice core data collected at the summit of eight ice rises along the coast of Dronning Maud Land, as well as at the Dome Fuji site, and shallow ice-penetrating radar data over these regions. Shallow radar data have the advantage of being spatially extensive, with a temporal resolution that varies between a yearly and multi-year resolution, from which we can derive a SMB record over the entire radar survey. This comparison therefore allows us to evaluate the spatial variability of SMB and the spatial representativeness of ice-core-derived SMB. We found that ice core mean SMB is very local, and the difference with radar-derived SMB increases in a logarithmic fashion as the surface covered by the radar data increases, with a plateau ∼ 1–2 km away from the ice crest for most ice rises, where there are strong wind–topography interactions, and ∼ 10 km where the ice shelves begin. The relative uncertainty in measuring SMB also increases rapidly as we move away from the ice core sites. Five of our ice rise sites show a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability, while the other three sites show that it is limited to a surface area between 20–120 km2. The Dome Fuji site, on the other hand, shows a small difference between pointwise and area mean SMB, as well as a strong spatial representativeness in terms of temporal variability. We found no simple parameterization that could represent the spatial variability observed at all the sites. However, these data clearly indicate that local spatial SMB variability must be considered when assessing mass balance, as well as comparing modeled SMB values to point field data, and therefore must be included in the estimate of the uncertainty of the observations.

Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica.

Observations of ocean-driven grounding-line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica raise the question of an imminent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under the present-day climate. To this aim, we first calibrate a sub-shelf melt parameterization, which is derived from an ocean box model, with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes, making it suitable for present-day simulations and future sea level projections. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend the simulations for another 10 000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing and bathymetry. We test for reversibility of grounding-line movement in the case that large-scale retreat occurs. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment we find irreversible retreat of the Thwaites Glacier for all our parameter combinations and irreversible retreat of the Pine Island Glacier for some admissible parameter combinations. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector is initiated at the earliest between 300 and 500 years in our simulations and is not inevitable yet – as also shown in our companion paper (Part 1, Hill et al., 2023). In other words, the region has not tipped yet. With the assumption of constant present-day climate, the collapse evolves on millennial timescales, with a maximum rate of 0.9 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. The contribution to sea level by 2300 is limited to 8 cm with a maximum rate of 0.4 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. Furthermore, when allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry, we find that large-scale grounding-line retreat into marine basins upstream of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the western Siple Coast is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet stores a vast amount of freshwater, which makes it the single largest potential contributor to future sea-level rise. However, the lack of well-constrained geological records of past ice sheet changes impedes model validation, hampers mass balance estimates, and inhibits examination of ice loss mechanisms. Here we identify rapid ice-sheet thinning in coastal Dronning Maud Land from Early to Middle Holocene (9000–5000 years ago) using a deglacial chronology based on in situ cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dates from central Dronning Maud Land, in concert with numerical simulations of regional and continental ice-sheet evolution. Regional sea-level changes reproduced from our refined ice-load history show a highstand at 9000–8000 years ago. We propose that sea-level rise and a concomitant influx of warmer Circumpolar Deep Water triggered ice shelf breakup via the marine ice sheet instability mechanism, which led to rapid thinning of upstream coastal ice sheet sectors.

Floating ice shelves are the Achilles’ heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.

Curvilinear channels on the surface of an ice shelf indicate the presence of large channels at the base. Modelling studies have shown that where these surface expressions intersect the grounding line, they coincide with the likely outflow of subglacial water. An understanding of the initiation and the ice–ocean evolution of the basal channels is required to understand the present behaviour and future dynamics of ice sheets and ice shelves. Here, we present focused active seismic and radar surveys of a basal channel, ∼950 m wide and ∼200 m high, and its upstream continuation beneath Support Force Glacier, which feeds into the Filchner Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. Immediately seaward from the grounding line, below the basal channel, the seismic profiles show an ∼6.75 km long, 3.2 km wide and 200 m thick sedimentary sequence with chaotic to weakly stratified reflections we interpret as a grounding line fan deposited by a subglacial drainage channel directly upstream of the basal channel. Further downstream the seabed has a different character; it consists of harder, stratified consolidated sediments, deposited under different glaciological circumstances, or possibly bedrock. In contrast to the standard perception of a rapid change in ice shelf thickness just downstream of the grounding line, we find a flat topography of the ice shelf base with an almost constant ice thickness gradient along-flow, indicating only little basal melting, but an initial widening of the basal channel, which we ascribe to melting along its flanks. Our findings provide a detailed view of a more complex interaction between the ocean and subglacial hydrology to form basal channels in ice shelves.

Understanding changes in Antarctic ice shelf basal melting is a major challenge for predicting future sea level. Currently, warm Circumpolar Deep Water surrounding Antarctica has limited access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf; consequently, melt rates at Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf are low. However, large-scale model projections suggest that changes to the Antarctic Slope Front and the coastal circulation may enhance warm inflows within this century. We use a regional high-resolution ice shelf cavity and ocean circulation model to explore forcing changes that may trigger this regime shift. Our results suggest two necessary conditions for supporting a sustained warm inflow into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity: (i) an extreme relaxation of the Antarctic Slope Front density gradient and (ii) substantial freshening of the dense shelf water. We also find that the on-shelf transport over the western Weddell Sea shelf is sensitive to the Filchner Trough overflow characteristics.

Ice shelves around Antarctica can provide back stress for outlet glaciers and control ice sheet mass loss. They often contain narrow bands of thin ice termed ice shelf channels. Ice shelf channel morphology can be interpreted through surface depressions and exhibits junctions and deflections from flowlines. Using ice flow modeling and radar, we investigate ice shelf channels in the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf. These are aligned obliquely to the prevailing easterly winds. In the shallow radar stratigraphy, syncline and anticline stacks occur beneath the upwind and downwind side, respectively. The structures are horizontally and vertically coherent, except near an ice shelf channel junction where patterns change structurally with depth. Deeper layers truncate near basal incisions. Using ice flow modeling, we show that the stratigraphy is ∼9 times more sensitive to atmospheric variability than to oceanic variability. This is due to the continual adjustment toward flotation. We propose that syncline-anticline pairs in the shallow stratigraphy are caused by preferential snow deposition on the windward side and wind erosion at the downwind side. This drives downwind deflection of ice shelf channels of several meters per year. The depth variable structures indicate formation of an ice shelf channel junction by basal melting. We conclude that many ice shelf channels are seeded at the grounding line. Their morphology farther seaward is shaped on different length scales by ice dynamics, the ocean, and the atmosphere. These processes act on finer (subkilometer) scales than are captured by most ice, atmosphere, and ocean models, yet the dynamics of ice shelf channels may have broader implications for ice shelf stability.

In cold polar waters, temperatures sometimes drop below the freezing point, a process referred to as supercooling. However, observational challenges in polar regions limit our understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of this phenomenon. We here provide observational evidence that supercooled waters are much more widespread in the seasonally ice-covered Southern Ocean than previously reported. In 5.8% of all analyzed hydrographic profiles south of 55°S, we find temperatures below the surface freezing point (“potential” supercooling), and half of these have temperatures below the local freezing point (“in situ” supercooling). Their occurrence doubles when neglecting measurement uncertainties. We attribute deep coastal-ocean supercooling to melting of Antarctic ice shelves and surface-induced supercooling in the seasonal sea-ice region to wintertime sea-ice formation. The latter supercooling type can extend down to the permanent pycnocline due to convective sinking plumes—an important mechanism for vertical tracer transport and water-mass structure in the polar ocean.

To investigate the role of tides in Weddell Sea ocean-ice shelf melt interactions, and resulting consequences for ocean properties and sea ice interactions, we develop a regional ocean-sea ice model configuration, with time-varying ocean boundary and atmospheric forcing, including the deep open ocean (at 2.5–4 km horizontal resolution), the southwestern continental shelf (≈2.5 km), and the adjacent cavities of eastern Weddell, Larsen, and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves (FRIS, 1.5–2.5 km). Simulated circulation, water mass, and ice shelf melt properties compare overall well with available open ocean and cavity observational knowledge. Tides are shown to enhance the kinetic energy of the time-varying flow in contact with the ice shelves, thereby increasing melt. This dynamically driven impact of tides on net melting is to almost 90% compensated by cooling through the meltwater that is produced but not quickly exported from regions of melting in the Weddell Sea cold-cavity regime. The resulting systematic tide-driven enhancement of both produced meltwater and its refreezing on ascending branches of, especially the FRIS, cavity circulation acts to increase net ice shelf melting (by 50% in respect to the state without tides, ≈50 Gt yr−1). In addition, tides also increase the melt-induced FRIS cavity circulation, and the meltwater export by the FRIS outflow. Simulations suggest attendant changes on the open-ocean southwestern continental shelf, characterized by overall freshening and small year-round sea ice thickening, as well as in the deep southwestern Weddell Sea in the form of a marked freshening of newly formed bottom waters.

The Getz Ice Shelf is one of the largest sources of fresh water from ice shelf basal melt in Antarctica. We present new observations from three moorings west of Siple Island 2016–2018. All moorings show a persistent flow of modified Circumpolar Deep Water toward the western Getz Ice Shelf. Unmodified Circumpolar Deep Water with temperatures up to 1.5 °C reaches the ice shelf front in frequent episodes. These represent the warmest water observed at any ice shelf front in the Amundsen Sea. Mean currents within the warm bottom layer of 18–20 cm/s imply an advection time scale of 7 days from shelf break to ice shelf front. Zonal wind stress at the shelf break affects heat content at the ice shelf front on weekly to monthly time scales. Our 2-year mooring records also evince that upwelling over the shelf break controls thermocline depth on subannual to annual time scales.

In the Southern Ocean, polynyas exhibit enhanced rates of primary productivity and represent large seasonal sinks for atmospheric CO2. Three contrasting east Antarctic polynyas were visited in late December to early January 2017: the Dalton, Mertz, and Ninnis polynyas. In the Mertz and Ninnis polynyas, phytoplankton biomass (average of 322 and 354 mg chlorophyll a (Chl a)/m2, respectively) and net community production (5.3 and 4.6 mol C/m2, respectively) were approximately 3 times those measured in the Dalton polynya (average of 122 mg Chl a/m2 and 1.8 mol C/m2). Phytoplankton communities also differed between the polynyas. Diatoms were thriving in the Mertz and Ninnis polynyas but not in the Dalton polynya, where Phaeocystis antarctica dominated. These strong regional differences were explored using physiological, biological, and physical parameters. The most likely drivers of the observed higher productivity in the Mertz and Ninnis were the relatively shallow inflow of iron-rich modified Circumpolar Deep Water onto the shelf as well as a very large sea ice meltwater contribution. The productivity contrast between the three polynyas could not be explained by (1) the input of glacial meltwater, (2) the presence of Ice Shelf Water, or (3) stratification of the mixed layer. Our results show that physical drivers regulate the productivity of polynyas, suggesting that the response of biological productivity and carbon export to future change will vary among polynyas.

The buttressing potential of ice shelves is modulated by changes in subshelf melting, in response to changing ocean conditions. We analyze the temporal variability in subshelf melting using an autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder near the grounding line of the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. When combined with additional oceanographic evidence of seasonal variations in the stratification and the amplification of diurnal tides around the shelf break topography (Gunnerus Bank), the results suggest an intricate mechanism in which topographic waves control the seasonal melt rate variability near the grounding line. This mechanism has not been considered before and has the potential to enhance local melt rates without advecting different water masses. As topographic waves seem to strengthen in a stratified ocean, the freshening of Antarctic surface water, predicted by observations and models, is likely to increase future basal melting in this area.

The Weddell Gyre (WG) is one of the main oceanographic features of the Southern Ocean south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current which plays an influential role in global ocean circulation as well as gas exchange with the atmosphere. We review the state-of-the art knowledge concerning the WG from an interdisciplinary perspective, uncovering critical aspects needed to understand this system's role in shaping the future evolution of oceanic heat and carbon uptake over the next decades. The main limitations in our knowledge are related to the conditions in this extreme and remote environment, where the polar night, very low air temperatures, and presence of sea ice year-round hamper field and remotely sensed measurements. We highlight the importance of winter and under-ice conditions in the southern WG, the role that new technology will play to overcome present-day sampling limitations, the importance of the WG connectivity to the low-latitude oceans and atmosphere, and the expected intensification of the WG circulation as the westerly winds intensify. Greater international cooperation is needed to define key sampling locations that can be visited by any research vessel in the region. Existing transects sampled since the 1980s along the Prime Meridian and along an East-West section at ~62°S should be maintained with regularity to provide answers to the relevant questions. This approach will provide long-term data to determine trends and will improve representation of processes for regional, Antarctic-wide, and global modeling efforts—thereby enhancing predictions of the WG in global ocean circulation and climate.