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Ongoing studies conducted in northern polar regions reveal that permafrost stability plays a key role in the modern carbon cycle as it potentially stores considerable quantities of greenhouse gases. Rapid and recent warming of the Arctic permafrost is resulting in significant greenhouse gas emissions, both from physical and microbial processes. The potential impact of greenhouse gas release from the Antarctic region has not, to date, been investigated. In Antarctica, the McMurdo Dry Valleys comprise 10 % of the ice-free soil surface areas in Antarctica and like the northern polar regions are also warming albeit at a slower rate. The work presented herein examines a comprehensive sample suite of soil gas (e.g., CO2, CH4 and He) concentrations and CO2 flux measurements conducted in Taylor Valley during austral summer 2019/2020. Analytical results reveal the presence of significant concentrations of CO2, CH4 and He (up to 3.44 vol%, 18,447 ppmv and 6.49 ppmv, respectively) at the base of the active layer. When compared with the few previously obtained measurements, we observe increased CO2 flux rates (estimated CO2 emissions in the study area of 21.6 km2 ≈ 15 tons day−1). We suggest that the gas source is connected with the deep brines migrating from inland (potentially from beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet) towards the coast beneath the permafrost layer. These data provide a baseline for future investigations aimed at monitoring the changing rate of greenhouse gas emissions from Antarctic permafrost, and the potential origin of gases, as the southern polar region warms.

During the 35th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were carried out using a Li-Cor CO 2 /H 2 O analyser at Bharati, the Indian Antarctic research station. This study examines the short-term variability of atmospheric CO 2 during the austral summer (January–February) of 2016. An average of 396.25 ± 4.20 ppm was observed during the study period. Meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, air temperature and atmospheric boundary layer height in conjunction with photosynthetically active radiation, the biological activity indicator which modulates atmospheric CO 2 concentration have been investigated. High wind speed (>20 m s −1 ) combined with precipitation scavenges CO 2 in the atmosphere, resulting in low concentrations at the study site. The lowest CO 2 concentration of 385 ppm coincided with heavy precipitation of 15 mm during study period. Statistical analysis of the data shows that precipitation and relative humidity independently correlated 55% (r = −0.55) and 32% (r = −0.32), respectively, with the variability of CO 2 mixing in the atmosphere at the study site. Atmospheric CO 2 was significantly correlated with precipitation alone with a p value of 0.003. Further, multiple regression analysis was performed to test the significant relation between variability of atmospheric CO 2 and meteorological parameters. Long-range air-mass transport analysis depicted that the majority of the air masses are reaching the study site through the oceanic region.

This study aimed to quantify the nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes at sites with different vegetation covers and where bird activity was present or absent using the static chamber method, on Rip Point, Nelson Island, maritime Antarctic. The sites were soils covered by Sanionia uncinata, lichens, Prasiola crispa, Deschampsia antarctica and bare soil. Seabirds used the P. crispa and D. antarctica sites as nesting areas. Soil mineral N contents, air and soil temperature and water-filled pore space were measured, and the content of total organic C and particulate organic C, total N, bulk density and texture were determined to identify controlling variables of the gas emissions. The N2O and CH4 flux rates were low for all sampling events. Mean N2O flux rates ranged from 0.11±1.93 up to 21.25±22.14 µg N2O m−2 h−1 for the soils under lichen and P. crispa cover, respectively. For the CH4 fluxes, only the P. crispa site showed a low positive mean (0.47±3.61 µg CH4 m−2 h−1). The bare soil showed the greatest absorption of CH4 (−11.92±5.7 µg CH4 m−2 h−1), probably favoured by the coarse soil texture. Bare soil and S. uncinata sites had N2O accumulated emissions close to zero. Net CH4 accumulated emission was observed only at the P. crispa site, which was correlated with (p<0.001). These results indicate that seabird activity influences N2O and CH4 soil fluxes, while vegetation has little influence, and bare soil areas in maritime Antarctica could be greenhouse gas sinks. Keywords: Soil greenhouse gases; seabirds; vegetal cover; maritime Antarctica.

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges.

We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process-oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model's ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model's circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.

We report on ground-based atmospheric measurements and emission estimates of the four anthropogenic hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) HFC-365mfc (CH3CF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane), HFC-245fa (CHF2CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane), HFC-227ea (CF3CHFCF3, 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane), and HFC-236fa (CF3CH2CF3, 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane). In situ measurements are from the global monitoring sites of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), the System for Observations of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe (SOGE), and Gosan (South Korea). We include the first halocarbon flask sample measurements from the Antarctic research stations King Sejong and Troll. We also present measurements of archived air samples from both hemispheres back to the 1970s. We use a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model to simulate global atmospheric abundances and to estimate global emissions. HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa first appeared in the atmosphere only ∼1 decade ago; they have grown rapidly to globally averaged dry air mole fractions of 0.53 ppt (in parts per trillion, 10−12) and 1.1 ppt, respectively, by the end of 2010. In contrast, HFC-227ea first appeared in the global atmosphere in the 1980s and has since grown to ∼0.58 ppt. We report the first measurements of HFC-236fa in the atmosphere. This long-lived compound was present in the atmosphere at only 0.074 ppt in 2010. All four substances exhibit yearly growth rates of >8% yr−1 at the end of 2010. We find rapidly increasing emissions for the foam-blowing compounds HFC-365mfc and HFC-245fa starting in ∼2002. After peaking in 2006 (HFC-365mfc: 3.2 kt yr−1, HFC-245fa: 6.5 kt yr−1), emissions began to decline. Our results for these two compounds suggest that recent estimates from long-term projections (to the late 21st century) have strongly overestimated emissions for the early years of the projections (∼2005–2010). Global HFC-227ea and HFC-236fa emissions have grown to average values of 2.4 kt yr−1 and 0.18 kt yr−1 over the 2008–2010 period, respectively.

In the northern Weddell Gyre at the prime meridian, Total TCO2 changes in the Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW) have been investigated. Following a suggestion by [Poisson and Chen, 1987], the TCO2 difference at potential temperatures of 0.2°C and −0.8°C was determined using data from 1996 and 1998. No significant difference was found to similar differences for the years 1973 and 1981 reported by Poisson and Chen. Thus, over a period of 25 years an at most minor amount of anthropogenic CO2 has penetrated into the WSBW at this location. This suggests that this abyssal subpolar region is relatively unimportant for the storage of anthropogenic CO2. The same core of WSBW exhibited a marked increase of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). For the Southern Ocean, therefore, CFCs are apparently of limited value as analogues of anthropogenic CO2, in contrast to some other ocean provinces.

The altitude dependent variability of ozone in the polar stratosphere is regularly observed by balloon-borne ozonesonde observations at Neumayer Station (70°S) in the Antarctic and at Koldewey Station (79°N) in the Arctic. The reasons for observed seasonal and interannual variability and long-term changes are discussed. Differences between the hemispheres are identified and discussed in light of differing dynamical and chemical conditions. Since the mid- 1980s, rapid chemical ozone loss has been recorded in the lower Antarctic stratosphere during the spring season. Using coordinated ozone soundings in some Arctic winters, similar chemical ozone loss rates have been detected related to periods of low temperatures. The currently observed cooling trend of the stratosphere, potentially caused by the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may further strengthen chemical ozone removal in the Arctic. However, the role of internal climate oscillations in observed temperature trends is still uncertain. First results of a 10000 year integration of a low order climate model indicate significant internal climate variability. on decadal time scales, that may alter the effect of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the polar stratosphere.

The future development of stratospheric ozone layer depends on the concentration of chlorine and bromine containing species. The stratosphere is also expected to be affected by future enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. These result in a cooling of the winter polar stratosphere and to more stable polar vortices which leads to enhanced chemical depletion and reduced transport of ozone into high latitudes. One of the driving forces behind the interest in stratospheric ozone is the impact of ozone on solar UV-B radiation. In this study UV scenarios have been constructed based on ozone predictions from the chemistry-climate model runs carried out by GISS, UKMO and DLR. Since cloudiness, albedo and terrain height are also important factors, climatological values of these quantities are taken into account in the UV calculations. Relative to 1979–92 conditions, for the 2010–2020 time period the GISS model results indicate a springtime enhancement of erythemal UV doses of up to 90% in the 60–90 °N region and an enhancement of 100% in the 60–90 °S region. The corresponding maximum increases in the annual Northern Hemispheric UV doses are estimated to be 14% in 2010–20, and 2% in 2040–50. In the Southern Hemisphere 40% enhancement is expected during 2010–20 and 27% during 2040–50.