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Warmer ocean conditions could impact future ice loss from Antarctica due to their ability to thin and reduce the buttressing of laterally confined ice shelves. Previous studies highlight the potential for a cold to warm ocean regime shift within the sub-shelf cavities of the two largest Antarctic ice shelves—the Filchner–Ronne and Ross. However, how this impacts upstream ice flow and mass loss has not been quantified. Here using an ice sheet model and an ensemble of ocean-circulation model sub-shelf melt rates, we show that transition to a warm state in those ice shelf cavities leads to a destabilization and irreversible grounding line retreat in some locations. Once this ocean shift takes place, ice loss from the Filchner–Ronne and Ross catchments is greatly accelerated, and conditions begin to resemble those of the present-day Amundsen Sea sector—responsible for most current observed Antarctic ice loss—where this thermal shift has already occurred.

An object-based method for automatic iceberg detection has been applied to Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar images in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), Antarctica. The images were acquired between 1 January 2006 and 8 April 2012 under varying meteorological, oceanographic and sea-ice conditions. During this time period, the icebergs were counted (average 1370 ± 50) and their surface area was estimated (average 1537.5 km2). The average surface area was about 2.5 times larger than the annual calved area (620 km2), indicating that the average iceberg age in the ASE is about 2.5 years, which was confirmed by observed residence times based on drift tracks. Most of the ASE icebergs were less than 1500 m long, and almost 90% of them were smaller than 2 km2. The proportion of small- and medium-sized icebergs (84.4%) was significantly higher than in the open ocean, where large icebergs (>10 km2) account for nearly the whole iceberg surface area. The opposite was true for the freshly calved icebergs in the ASE. The data indicate that the creation of icebergs in the ASE is dominated by steady small- to medium-scale calving from ice shelves fringing the embayment. In addition, rare calving events of giant icebergs occur on a decadal timescale. There is also some import of icebergs from the Bellingshausen Sea further east along the coast, in particular after large calving events there.

Ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment have thinned, accelerating the seaward flow of ice sheets upstream over recent decades. This imbalance is caused by an increase in the ocean-driven melting of the ice shelves. Observations and models show that the ocean heat content reaching the ice shelves is sensitive to the depth of thermocline, which separates the cool, fresh surface waters from warm, salty waters. Yet the processes controlling the variability of thermocline depth remain poorly constrained. Here we quantify the oceanic conditions and ocean-driven melting of Cosgrove, Pine Island Glacier (PIG), Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment from 1991 to 2014 using a general circulation model. Ice-shelf melting is coupled to variability in the wind field and the sea-ice motions over the continental shelf break and associated onshore advection of warm waters in deep troughs. The layer of warm, salty waters at the calving front of PIG and Thwaites is thicker in austral spring (June–October) than in austral summer (December–March), whereas the seasonal cycle at the calving front of Dotson is reversed. Furthermore, the ocean-driven melting in PIG is enhanced by an asymmetric response to changes in ocean heat transport anomalies at the continental shelf break: melting responds more rapidly to increases in ocean heat transport than to decreases. This asymmetry is caused by the inland deepening of bathymetry and the glacial meltwater circulation around the ice shelf.

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) drains approximately 35% of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and is one of the most rapidly changing parts of the cryosphere. In order to predict future ice sheet behaviour, modellers require long-term records of ice-sheet melting to constrain and build confidence in their simulations. Here, we present detailed marine geological and radiocarbon data along three palaeo-ice stream tributary troughs in the western ASE to establish vital information on the timing of deglaciation of the WAIS since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We have undertaken multi-proxy analyses of the cores (core description, shear strength, x-radiographs, magnetic susceptibility, wet bulk density, total organic carbon/nitrogen, carbonate content and clay mineral analyses) in order to: (1) characterise the sedimentological facies and depositional environments; and (2) identify the horizon(s) in each core that would yield the most reliable age for deglaciation. In accordance with previous studies we identify three key facies, which offer the most reliable stratigraphies for dating deglaciation by recording the transition from a grounded ice sheet to open marine environments. These facies are: i) subglacial, ii) proximal grounding line, and iii) seasonal open marine. In addition, we incorporate ages from other facies (e.g., glaciomarine diamictons deposited at some distance from the grounding line, such as glaciogenic debris flows and iceberg-rafted diamictons and turbates) into our deglacial model. In total, we have dated 78 samples (mainly the acid insoluble organic (AIO) fraction, but also calcareous foraminifers), which include 63 downcore and 15 surface samples. Through careful sample selection prior to dating, we have established a robust deglacial chronology for this sector of the WAIS. Our data show that deglaciation of the western ASE was probably underway as early as 22,351 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), reaching the mid-shelf by 13,837 cal yr BP and the inner shelf to within c.10–12 km of the present ice shelf front between 12,618 and 10,072 cal yr BP. The deglacial steps in the western ASE broadly coincide with the rapid rises in sea-level associated with global meltwater pulses 1a and 1b, although given the potential dating uncertainty, additional, more precise ages are required before these findings can be fully substantiated. Finally, we show that the rate of ice-sheet retreat increased across the deep (up to1600 m) basins of the inner shelf, highlighting the importance of reverse slope and pinning points in accelerated phases of deglaciation.

Snowmelt processes on Antarctic sea ice are examined. We present a simple snowmelt indicator based on diurnal brightness temperature variations from microwave satellite data. The method is validated through extensive field data from the western Weddell Sea and lends itself to the investigation of interannual and spatial variations of the typical snowmelt on Antarctic sea ice. We use in-situ measurements of physical snow properties to show that despite the absence of strong melting, the summer period is distinct from all other seasons with enhanced diurnal variations of snow wetness. A microwave emission model reveals that repeated thawing and refreezing cause the typical microwave emissivity signatures that are found on perennial Antarctic sea ice during summer. The proposed melt indicator accounts for the characteristic phenomenological stages of snowmelt in the Southern Ocean and detects the onset of diurnal snow wetting. An algorithm is presented to map large-scale snowmelt onset based on satellite data from the period between 1988 and 2006. The results indicate strong meridional gradients of snowmelt onset with the Weddell, Amundsen, and Ross Seas showing earliest (beginning of October) and most frequent snowmelt. Moreover, a distinct interannual variability of melt onset dates and large areas of first-year ice where no diurnal freeze thawing occurs at the surface are determined.

Drift and variability of sea ice in the Amundsen Sea are investigated with ice buoys deployed in March 2000 and a coupled ice-ocean model. The Bremerhaven Regional Ice Ocean Simulations (BRIOS) model results are compared with in situ ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice measurements; satellite observations; and 8?19 months of buoy drift data. We identify a zone of coastal westward drift and a band of faster eastward drift, separated by a broad transition region characterized by variable ice motions. The model represents drift events at scales approaching its resolution but is limited at smaller scales and by deficiencies in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction forcing. Two thirds of the modeled ice production in the southern Amundsen moves westward near the coast, its transport modulated by meridional wind strength, damping sea ice formation in the eastern Ross Sea. Half of the ice exported from the Ross moves eastward into the northern Amundsen Sea, a net sea ice sink that also receives more than one third of the ice generated to its south. A low rate of exchange occurs with the Bellingshausen Sea, which must have a more independent ice regime. Snow ice formation resulting from high precipitation accounts for one quarter of the ice volume in the Amundsen Sea, aiding the formation of thick ice in a region with generally divergent ice drift. Freshwater extraction by sea ice formation is roughly balanced by precipitation and ice shelf melting, but a positive trend in the surface flux is consistent with an Amundsen source for reported freshening in the Ross Sea.