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Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall. Here we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model, evaluated with available firn core records and gravimetry observations, and show that such episodes had not been seen previously in the satellite climate data era (1979). Comparisons with historical data that originate from firn cores, one with records extending back to the 18th century, confirm that accumulation anomalies of this scale have not occurred in the past ~60 years, although comparable anomalies are found further back in time. We examined several regional climate model projections, describing various warming scenarios into the 21st century. Anomalies with magnitudes similar to the recently observed ones were not present in the model output for the current climate, but were found increasingly probable toward the end of the 21st century.

An extreme precipitation event that influenced almost the whole polar plateau of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, is investigated using Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System archive data. For the first time a high-resolution atmospheric model especially adapted for polar regions was used for such a study in Dronning Maud Land. The outstanding event of 21–25 February 2003 was connected to a strong north-westerly flow, caused by a blocking high above eastern Dronning Maud Land, that persisted for several days and brought unusually large levels of moisture to the Antarctic Plateau. This weather situation is most effective in bringing precipitation to high-altitude interior Antarctic ice-core drilling sites, where precipitation in the form of diamond dust usually dominates. However, a few such precipitation events per year can account for a large percentage of the annual accumulation, which can cause a strong bias in ice-core data. Additionally, increased temperatures and wind speeds during these events need to be taken into account for the correct climatic interpretation of ice cores. A better understanding of the frequency of occurrence of intermittent precipitation in the interior of Antarctica in past and future climates is necessary for both palaeoclimatological studies and estimates of future sea-level change.

As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well- known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallowdrilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.

Measurement of light intensity transmission was carried out on an ice core S100 from coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML). Ice lenses were observed in digital pictures of the core and recorded as peaks in the light transmittance record. The frequency of ice layer occurrence was compared with climate proxy data (e.g. oxygen isotopes), annual accumulation rate derived from the same ice core, and available meteorological data from coastal stations in DML. The mean annual frequency of melting events remains constant for the last ∼150 years. However, fewer melting features are visible at depths corresponding to approximately 1890–1930 AD and the number of ice lenses increases again after 1930 AD. Most years during this period have negative summer temperature anomalies and positive annual accumulation anomalies. The increase in melting frequency around ∼1930 AD corresponds to the beginning of a decreasing trend in accumulation and an increasing trend in oxygen isotope record. On annual time scales, a relatively good match exists between ice layer frequencies and mean summer temperatures recorded at nearby meteorological stations (Novolazarevskaya, Sanae, Syowa and Halley) only for some years. There is a poor agreement between melt feature frequencies and oxygen isotope records on longer time scales. Melt layer frequency proved difficult to explain with standard climate data and ice core derived proxies. These results suggest a local character for the melt events and a strong influence of surface topography.

A 100 m long ice core was retrieved from the coastal area of Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, in the 2000/01 austral summer. The core was dated to AD 1737 by identification of volcanic horizons in dielectrical profiling and electrical conductivity measurement records in combination with seasonal layer counting from high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) data. A mean long-term accumulation rate of 0.29 ma–1w.e. was derived from the high-resolution δ18O record as well as accumulation rates during periods in between the identified volcanic horizons. A statistically significant decrease in accumulation was found from about 1920 to the present. A comparison with other coastal ice cores from DML suggests that this is a regional pattern.

This paper presents an overview of firn accumulation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, over the past 1000 years. It is based on a chronology established with dated volcanogenic horizons detected by dielectric profiling of six medium-length firn cores. In 1998 the British Antarctic Survey retrieved a medium-length firn core from western DML. During the Nordic EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) traverse of 2000/01, a 160 m long firn core was drilled in eastern DML. Together with previously published data from four other medium-length ice cores from the area, these cores yield 50 possible volcanogenic horizons. All six firn cores cover a mutual time record until the 29th eruption. This overlapping period represents a period of approximately 1000 years, with mean values ranging between 43 and 71 mm w.e. The cores revealed no significant trend in snow accumulation. Running averages over 50 years, averaged over the six cores, indicate temporal variations of5%. All cores display evidence of a minimum in the mean annual firn accumulation rate around AD 1500 and maxima around AD 1400 and 1800. The mean increase over the early 20th century was the strongest increase, but the absolute accumulation rate was not much higher than around AD 1400. In eastern DML a 13% increase is observed for the second half of the 20th century.

Firn air was sampled on the Antarctic plateau in Dronning Maud Land (DML), during the Norwegian Antarctic Research Expedition (NARE) 2000/2001. In this paper, we describe the analyses for methyl chloride and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) in these firn air samples. For the first time, the NMHCs ethane, propane, and acetylene have been measured in Antarctic firn air, and concentration profiles for these gases have been derived. A one-dimensional numerical firn air diffusion model was used to interpret the measured profiles and to derive atmospheric concentrations as a function of time. The atmospheric trends we derived for the NMHC and methyl chloride at DML cover the period from 1975 to 2000. Methyl chloride shows a decreasing trend of 1.2 ± 0.6 ppt per year (annual mean concentration 548 ± 32 ppt). For ethane we found an increasing trend of 1.6 ± 0.6 ppt per year (annual mean concentration 241 ± 12 ppt). The concentrations of propane and acetylene appear to be constant over the period 1975–2000, with annual mean concentrations of 30 ± 4 ppt for propane and 24 ± 2 ppt for acetylene.

Ice rises play key roles in buttressing the neighbouring ice shelves and potentially provide palaeoclimate proxies from ice cores drilled near their divides. Little is known, however, about their influence on local climate and surface mass balance (SMB). Here we combine 12 years (2001–12) of regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) output at high horizontal resolution (5.5 km) with recent observations from weather stations, ground-penetrating radar and firn cores in coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, to describe climate and SMB variations around ice rises. We demonstrate strong spatial variability of climate and SMB in the vicinity of ice rises, in contrast to flat ice shelves, where they are relatively homogeneous. Despite their higher elevation, ice rises are characterized by higher winter temperatures compared with the flat ice shelf. Ice rises strongly influence SMB patterns, mainly through orographic uplift of moist air on the upwind slopes. Besides precipitation, drifting snow contributes significantly to the ice-rise SMB. The findings reported here may aid in selecting a representative location for ice coring on ice rises, and allow better constraint of local ice-rise as well as regional ice-shelf mass balance.

We investigate and quantify the variability of snow accumulation rate around a medium-depth firn core (160 m) drilled in east Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (75°00′ S, 15°00’ E; 3470 m h.a.e. (ellipsoidal height)). We present accumulation data from five snow pits and five shallow (20 m) firn cores distributed within a 3.5–7 km distance, retrieved during the 2000/01 Nordic EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) traverse. Snow accumulation rates estimated for shorter periods show higher spatial variance than for longer periods. Accumulation variability as recorded from the firn cores and snow pits cannot explain all the variation in the ion and isotope time series; other depositional and post-depositional processes need to be accounted for. Through simple statistical analysis we show that there are differences in sensitivity to these processes between the analyzed species. Oxygen isotopes and sulphate are more conservative in their post-depositional behaviour than the more volatile acids, such as nitrate and to some degree chloride and methanesulphonic acid. We discuss the possible causes for the accumulation variability and the implications for the interpretation of ice-core records.

This paper presents atmospheric concentrations of ethane, propane, acetylene, and methyl chloride, inferred from firn air by using a numerical one-dimensional firn diffusion model. The firn air was collected on the Antarctic plateau in Dronning Maud Land during the Norwegian Antarctic Research Expedition (NARE) 2000/2001. The influences of seasonal variations in temperature and pressure and the variation in accumulation rate were studied and are not negligible, but appear to cancel each other out if all variability is taken into account. This paper also demonstrates that firn air from the uppermost firn layer (30 m) can be used to derive seasonal cycles of these trace gases, without needing a year-round facility. These cycles display higher atmospheric mixing ratios during the Antarctic winter and lower atmospheric mixing ratios in summer. The cycles for the year 2000 show amplitudes of 140 ± 25 ppt for ethane, 30 ± 10 ppt for propane, 24 ± 6 ppt for acetylene, and 40 ± 20 ppt for methyl chloride. For ethane and propane the amplitudes and months of maximum atmospheric concentration (phase) are in reasonable agreement with year-round measurements at the South Pole and Baring Head (New Zealand). The amplitudes for methyl chloride and acetylene are significantly greater than seen in year-round measurements at the South Pole and at Neumayer (Antarctica), although the phase is in line. While biomass burning and removal by OH radicals can partially explain these large amplitudes, the exact cause still remains unclear for methyl chloride and acetylene.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest, highest, coldest, driest, and windiest ice sheet on Earth. Understanding of the surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica is necessary to determine the present state of the ice sheet, to make predictions of its potential contribution to sea level rise, and to determine its past history for paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, SMB values are poorly known because of logistic constraints in extreme polar environments, and they represent one of the biggest challenges of Antarctic science. Snow accumulation is the most important parameter for the SMB of ice sheets. SMB varies on a number of scales, from small-scale features (sastrugi) to ice-sheet-scale SMB patterns determined mainly by temperature, elevation, distance from the coast, and wind-driven processes. In situ measurements of SMB are performed at single points by stakes, ultrasonic sounders, snow pits, and firn and ice cores and laterally by continuous measurements using ground-penetrating radar. SMB for large regions can only be achieved practically by using remote sensing and/or numerical climate modeling. However, these techniques rely on ground truthing to improve the resolution and accuracy. The separation of spatial and temporal variations of SMB in transient regimes is necessary for accurate interpretation of ice core records. In this review we provide an overview of the various measurement techniques, related difficulties, and limitations of data interpretation; describe spatial characteristics of East Antarctic SMB and issues related to the spatial and temporal representativity of measurements; and provide recommendations on how to perform in situ measurements.

Quantarctica (https://www.npolar.no/quantarctica) is a geospatial data package, analysis environment, and visualization platform for the Antarctic Continent, Southern Ocean (>40oS), and sub-Antarctic islands. Quantarctica works with the free, cross-platform Geographical Information System (GIS) software QGIS and can run without an Internet connection, making it a viable tool for fieldwork in remote areas. The data package includes basemaps, satellite imagery, terrain models, and scientific data in nine disciplines, including physical and biological sciences, environmental management, and social science. To provide a clear and responsive user experience, cartography and rendering settings are carefully prepared using colour sets that work well for typical data combinations and with consideration of users with common colour vision deficiencies. Metadata included in each dataset provides brief abstracts for non-specialists and references to the original data sources. Thus, Quantarctica provides an integrated environment to view and analyse multiple Antarctic datasets together conveniently and with a low entry barrier.

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long—28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.